Another hit for the C's - Japan Earthquake

[SAO]

Just wanted to document this in the official forum:

As mentioned in the original thread, the recent 8.9 earthquake off the coast of Japan happened with the exact magnitude and within 5 months of when the C's said it would, 16 years ago:

Q: (L) We would also like to have more information on earth changes.  Is the Japanese earthquake that just happened as you predicted last week, the last of the Japanese problem? {An entire session had been lost due to tape malfunction.  It consisted in part of a prediction of an almost immediate Japanese earthquake which did occur exactly as predicted.}
 A: No.

Q: (L) Can you give us more on that...

A: There will be activity about 8.9: 67 miles off Osaka coast;  9.7: central Tokyo.

Q: (L) Are all of these going to happen within this year?

A: No. Within 16 years.

[Tomek]

Oh geez, I really hope that they are wrong about the 9.7 one in central Tokyo... 

[celtic]

Oh geez, I really hope that they are wrong about the 9.7 one in central Tokyo...

It is really scary, if the 9.7 happens I hope they are fully prepared for it so they can evacuate as many people as possible.  

[WhiteBear]

Oh geez, I really hope that they are wrong about the 9.7 one in central Tokyo...

It is really scary, if the 9.7 happens I hope they are fully prepared for it so they can evacuate as many people as possible.  

There's 13 million people in Tokyo, and they are having rolling blackouts to conserve power, which will only hinder communication and organization efforts.  I just hope it holds off a little while longer.

[Franco]

I was going to search the transcripts for the Japan quake but you already did.

Thanks

Franco

[Ask_a_debtor]

Just wanted to document this in the official forum:

As mentioned in the original thread, the recent 8.9 earthquake off the coast of Japan happened with the exact magnitude and within 5 months of when the C's said it would, 16 years ago:

Q: (L) We would also like to have more information on earth changes.  Is the Japanese earthquake that just happened as you predicted last week, the last of the Japanese problem? {An entire session had been lost due to tape malfunction.  It consisted in part of a prediction of an almost immediate Japanese earthquake which did occur exactly as predicted.}
 A: No.

Q: (L) Can you give us more on that...

A: There will be activity about 8.9: 67 miles off Osaka coast;  9.7: central Tokyo.

Q: (L) Are all of these going to happen within this year?

A: No. Within 16 years.

Looks like they were about right on timing and magnitude but a bit off on the location.  The epicenter was about 800 miles from Osaka. 

[Kaigen]

If it will occur in next few months in heart of Japan, it will be deadly hit.

[Ghostdoghaiku]

I can't even process what a 9.7 would be like, let alone in a major city like Tokyo. 

How many times more powerful than this last 9.0 is that? 

Also, can you depend on the 'scales' that are popularly posted on USGS etc, or are they watered down and manipulated by, say nuke plant investment agents and enthusiasts.  I would never have thought of that, had I not heard that many other scales, such as the air visibility index and the UV index have been updated recently to downplay certain 'new normals'.  With so much of the US Gov info now coming from private companies, it's hard to believe anything without first doing complete research.  For instance, the weather that you think the weather bureau gives out, is allegedly Raytheon Company, now.

Another thought, though associated with with this particular event/s in Japan this week.  It's become extremely obvious that you should not, get your information from the companies that run systems in crises (these days that's just about everything), governments, or the corporate news (I say that word "news" so lightly).

[WhiteBear]

I can't even process what a 9.7 would be like, let alone in a major city like Tokyo. 

How many times more powerful than this last 9.0 is that? 

I believe the Richter scale is a logarithmic scale, so 9.3 would be twice as strong as 9.0, 9.6 would be twice a 9.3, etc.

[dantem]

  Did not remember that, that session mentioning a super quake in central Tokyo!

A Japanese geologist, Shinji Toda, talked about Japan's hidden faults back in 2007, telling that many surrounding faults haven't been tracked yet and the danger underestimated.

This paper from Richard A. Kerr is not good news, though I haven't access to it.

The Earthquake That Will Eat Tokyo

_http://www.sciencemag.org/content/315/5808/37.2.summary

[Kolnikov]

My God, IT IS a hit

[lostinself]

Did not remember that, that session mentioning a super quake in central Tokyo!

A Japanese geologist, Shinji Toda, talked about Japan's hidden faults back in 2007, telling that many surrounding faults haven't been tracked yet and the danger underestimated.

This paper from Richard A. Kerr is not good news, though I haven't access to it.

The Earthquake That Will Eat Tokyo

_http://www.sciencemag.org/content/315/5808/37.2.summary

here's the article (not too long apparently):

The Earthquake That Will Eat Tokyo

Denizens of the megalopolis of Tokyo are finally emerging from the threat of their own Big One. The megaquake that last struck offshore in 1923, killing 105,000 people, is not likely to return for many, many decades, researchers in a joint U.S.-Japan study reported at the meeting. But the same study finds that a far more immediate threat including possible losses totaling $1 trillion—lies right beneath Tokyo and surrounding cities.  
    
One-quarter of Japan’s 127 million people live in and around Tokyo on the Kanto Plain. Unfortunately for them, not one but two tectonic plates converge on Japan from the east and dive beneath the edge of the Eurasian Plate and Tokyo. Sliding plates sticking and then snapping free produced quakes of about magnitude 8 in 1923 as well as in 1703.    

How frequently do such quakes strike offshore Japan? A 20-member group asked that question at the meeting. The group was headed by seismologists Ross Stein of the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, California, and Shinji Toda of the Active Fault Research Center in Tsukuba, Japan, and funded in large part by the insurance giant Swiss Re. Each of those great earthquakes lifted the shoreline by a meter or more. That rise created wave-cut terraces perched above present-day beaches, preserving 7000 years of quake history in the terraces. By dating them, “Team Tokyo” researchers found that the last 17 quakes struck about every 400 years on average with surprising regularity. The probability of the next great quake striking in the next 30 years is then just 0.5%, the group reported.

Tokyo didn’t get off so easy when Team Tokyo tackled the frequency of smaller quakes beneath the Kanto Plain. To judge by the frequency of earthquakes striking right beneath greater Tokyo, large quakes like the magnitude 7.3 shock of 1855 have about a 20% chance of occurring in an average 30-year period. Combining the two results, the chances of severe shaking in and around Tokyo are about 30% for the next 30 years, the group found, due almost entirely to the threat from beneath the city.
    
Using seismic records of 300,000 earthquakes in the area, the group believes it has pinned down the source of most of Tokyo’s moderate but close-in quakes: a 25-kilometer- thick chunk of the Pacific Plate broken off and stuck between the three plates beneath Tokyo. Until that jam clears in the geologic future, residents of greater Tokyo will live under the threat of a trillion-dollar catastrophe rising from beneath their feet. At the meeting, seismologist David Jackson of the University of California, Los Angeles, raised the possibility that the threat is even larger than that. The great offshore quakes may not be as periodic as Team Tokyo would have them, he warned. The next one might misbehave and come sooner than expected.

source: http://sicarius.wr.usgs.gov/tokyo/slides/KerrScience2007.pdf

Team Tokyo project has a collection of more detailed, technical articles considering the hazard of big earthquake hitting Japanese metropoly. some publications by S. Toda are available there.

http://sicarius.wr.usgs.gov/tokyo/publications.html

[Pashalis]

I posted this into the  "Japan Earthquake Magnitude 8.9" thread:

I found a german article (http://wissen.de.msn.com/bilder.aspx?cp-documentid=156663350)

rough translation of the contend :

Earth's crust near Tokyo under enormous Pressure:

not the worst jet Tokyo before the basic disaster ? geologists apprehend
that Tokyo  threatens another major earthquake. on a fault near Tokyo   
enormous Pressure has built up.............

PS: maybe someone could find the source of this ?
      someone want to translate more of it ?
           

[Tx22]

Can you link to the complete article please?

[lostinself]

I posted this into the  "Japan Earthquake Magnitude 8.9" thread:

I found a german article (http://wissen.de.msn.com/bilder.aspx?cp-documentid=156663350)

rough translation of the contend :

Earth's crust near Tokyo under enormous Pressure:

not the worst jet Tokyo before the basic disaster ? geologists apprehend
that Tokyo  threatens another major earthquake. on a fault near Tokyo   
enormous Pressure has built up.............

PS: maybe someone could find the source of this ?
      someone want to translate more of it ?
           

via google translator:

Tokyo is the real disaster is yet? Geologists are concerned that the metropolis of Tokyo is threatening a further, major earthquake. On a fault near the Japanese capital, has built up tremendous pressure.

The devastating earthquake on 11 March in the northeast of Japan triggered a tsunami of destructive proportions. Entire cities were wiped out. In the Fukushima nuclear power plant the electricity supply was interrupted, the cooling pond turned out reactors exploded and released radioactivity. The Japanese capital, the metropolis of Tokyo, is located only 250 kilometers. Millions of people in and around Tokyo are being threatened by radioactive contamination. The drinking water in the region is scarce and even foods are now contaminated with radioactivity.

Now threatens the metropolis of Tokyo, the next threat scenario. Geologists have found that the crust is on a fault near the Japanese capital under enormous pressure. A severe earthquake has thus become more likely and threatening millions of people.

With the devastating earthquake in northeast Japan has risen according to estimates by geologists, the probability of a major earthquake in the capital Tokyo. The massive shock of 11 March would have changed the earth's surface, thus building pressure on a fault near the Japanese capital, said Roger Musson of the British Geological Institute.

This does not mean that an equally strong earthquake will hit the Japanese capital. The structure of the tectonic plates and faults there is another, what a quake of the same intensity as that on 11 March with a magnitude of 9.0 makes it unlikely, says Musson.

But given the high population density - in Tokyo and living environment 39 million people - could also be a weaker earthquake can be devastating. "Even if it had such a magnitude of 7.5 would be that serious," says seismologist.

Shocks such as those in Tokyo arise where two continental plates collide, drift apart or rub together.

The earthquake of 11 March, on the sea floor raised a ditch of 380 kilometers and 190 kilometers wide, as one of those tectonic plates, nine feet placed under another, said Eric Fielding's Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the U.S. space agency NASA.

This was indeed reduced pressure at the breaking point, but it increased in the adjacent segments - and that could trigger a dangerous aftershocks near Tokyo, also said Brian Atwater from the Geological Institute of the USA.

That would be a common scenario for large earthquakes. For example, three months after the quake, and followed the 2004 tsunami off Indonesia, where 240,000 people died, the strength of an aftershock 8.6 a little further along the fault. On the less populated islands of Nias at the time came to 1,000 people.

"But it's hard to say," says Atwater. "There are good examples that such a pressure increase leads to more earthquakes, but there are also good examples of it." Moreover, this pressure could also elsewhere - and not before Tokyo - discharged. Current would also enter new information, two scientists say in the Geological Institute of the USA. We'll be watching but it is the fault directly under Tokyo.

Japan is in the Pacific "Ring of Fire" with numerous volcanoes, in the shifting of tectonic plates always lead to shock. Yet few geologists believed to 11th March out that Japan would be an earthquake of magnitude 9 or higher to meet, says Andrew Moore of Earlham College in Indiana. It was the strongest quake, which Japan has experienced since records began 130 years ago.

However, there are indications that Japan had been in the past 3,500 years, been hit by such strong earthquakes. Sand deposits suggest that several earthquakes were triggered up to nine foot waves that impacted on the northern island of Hokkaido, the last one in the 17 Century.

Also in Sendai, on 11 March was particularly hard hit, there are similar deposits. There had been modified in the year 869, a tsunami's path blazed two and a half miles inland and killed 1,000 people.

it seems that the possibility of another major earthquake is becoming officially acknowledged in Japan:

Japan's Meteorological Agency on Friday warned the country's 20 volcanoes has become alive due to the massive March 11 earthquake, and a study said earthquake over 9.0-magnitude might hit Japan.

The Agency said volcanic explosion occurred after earthquake several times in history and people should maintain vigilance against this tendency.

The number of earthquake above 6.0 M reached 77 on March. And 74 out of them occurred in quake-hit region, were aftershock. The number is 50 times over the same period last year.

The largest aftershock on April 7 hit Japan has killed 4 people, injured at least 166, and caused a power outage over 2.61 million households, according to Japan's police officials.  The Meteorological Agency warned aftershocks above 6.0 M like the April 7 earthquake probably would hit Japan again.

Meanwhile, quakes of the  country's 20 volcanoes occurred more frequently after the massive March 11 earthquake, especially, the Fuji, Hakone, and Aso-San.

Authorities in Japan on Friday announced a research findings which indicated chain earthquake over 9.0-magnitude might hit Japan and its offshore area.

A massive 9.0 magnitude earthquake hit off the northeastern coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, triggering a massive tsunami which caused alerts to go up along the pacific basin.

The National Police Agency reported at 10:00 a.m., April 8, the death toll rose to 12,731.  The number of reported missing declined to 14,706.