I first heard about Prof. Elchin Khalilov, a Geophysicist from Azerbaijan, the President of the International Committee on Global Changes of geological environment [GEOCHANGE], 2 years ago while he was visiting Turkey and made some Earthquake threat warnings. Since he sounded different than the most mainstream scientists on topics like earth changes , global climate change etc . and since ( I thought) that there were some similarities in the approach to these topics within his works and SOTT, I decided to look further into his work. I found his website, downloaded some scientific articles (about influences of solar activity upon seismic and volcanic activities and global climate) but these were a bit too technical for me, so I gave up then.
A few days ago, after watching and while translating Laura’s Q&A video for Earthchanges i thought it may be worth to search again on the net about Elchin Khalilov and GEOCHANGE organization. I found some interviews and a GEOCHANGE report from 2010. I am still digging it but so far i found it interesting and so i wanted to share for those who haven’t heard about GEOCHANGE and are interested.
I searched on the forum and SOTT.net about him and GEOCHANGE org. and i found a recent article on SOTT :
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/232804-Russian-solar-probe-to-predict-Earthly-cataclysms
Now a little bit information about Prof. Elchin Khalilov :
Prof. Elchin N. Khalilov,
Doctor of geological and mineralogical sciences
Chairman of the International Committee on issues of Global Changes of the Geological Environment – GCGE GEOCHANGE (London, UK),
GNFE President,
Director General of the Scientific Research Institute for Prognosis and Study of Earthquakes (Baku, Azerbaijan)
http://geochange-report.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=81:chairman-of-international-committee&catid=43:committee-board&Itemid=100
And his full biography can be found here :
http://www.khalilov.biz/biography.html
Mission and objective statement of GEOCHANGE :
OUR MOTTOS:
- SCIENCE IS FREE
- SCIENCE WITHOUT BORDERS
- SCIENCE WITHOUT POLITICS
- SCIENCE MUST SERVE PEOPLE
We, scientists from different countries, have teamed up to bring to the attention of leaders of the UN, EU and other international organizations, heads of states, social activists and the international community some objective information about global environmental changes, including global climate change.
We are beyond politics, beyond state borders, beyond religion.
Our mission – is to improve human security in an era of natural disasters.
Our objectives :
to identify the true causes, possible extent and implications of global environmental changes;
to impartially assess the actual role and proportion of natural and anthropogenic factors in global climate change;
to create equal conditions for scientists from different countries to express their opinion and present scientific results;
to provide a platform for any alternative views of world scientists.
We invite scientists from all over the world to join our initiative.
Members of committee scientific board from the organization can be found here :
http://geochange-report.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=64:members-of-committee-board-&catid=43:committee-board&Itemid=100
Now to the report. The link to the report is at the end of this post but first here are some highlights.
From "The summary" of the report :
Below are given some results of studies of global environmental changes expressed by the statistics and the scale of various natural disasters, both atmospheric and geological in nature. On the basis of statistical data analysis for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, drift of the magnetic poles and other geological processes it has been demonstrated that the Earth’s geodynamic activity has been continuously increasing over the past 100 years, with this tendency substantially growing in recent decades. This is reflected in the number of casualties and the extent of economic damage caused by natural disasters. The global “energy spike” in endogenous and exogenous processes of the Earth started in the late 1990’s.
A similar trend can be observed in atmospheric processes, specifically the increased number of tornados, hurricanes, tropical storms, floods, etc. The global environmental changes caused by anthropogenic and natural factors combine to amplify the negative effect on humanity.
It has to be acknowledged that humankind is not prepared to enter the era of global natural cataclysms, either technologically, economically, legally, or psychologically. A joint effort by scientists, international organizations and governments of different countries under the aegis of the UN is needed to take effective measures to counter natural disasters and to minimize the casualties and damage they cause to humanity.
From "The Introduction" part :
The time has come when accumulated earth science data make it possible to take a deeper look into the nature’s global changes, and reconsider their extent and their role in the sustainable development of civilization. Many world scientists realize that not only do these changes affect the climate, but they have an impact on virtually the entire volume of the Earth, from its core to the atmosphere and magnetosphere.
Global Changes of the Environment, “GEOCHANGE”, means natural, planet-wide changes in nature, influenced by endogenous, exogenous and cosmic factors occurring within the solar system and having negative implications for the sustainable development of humankind.
We observe that, along with the rise of our planet’s average temperature, there is a simultaneous increase not only in the activity of extreme weather events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, storms, etc., but also of the number of strong earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, with the movement of the magnetic poles accelerating and the Earth’s shape and rotation rate changing. Therefore, it is evident that global climate change is only a part of global environmental changes.
From "The geophysical and cosmic factors" section :
There are some significant changes observed during recent decades in certain geophysical and space parameters. How closely are these changes related to natural disasters, thereby jeopardizing the stable development of civilization? This chapter shows how deep and large-scale the changes taking place across the Earth and Solar System are. In its following reports, IC GCGE will address different aspects of the problem not covered in this paper.
....
CONCLUSIONS
- From 1980 to present, the North Magnetic Pole’s drift velocity has increased by more than 500%. This might indicate the beginning of an increase in Earth’s geodynamic activity since Earth’s magnetic field is formed as a result of complex energy processes in its inner and outer core.
- It has been established that variations of the angular velocity of Earth’s rotation are correlated with the solar constant trend.
- A correlation between the solar and volcanic activity trends has been found.
- A direct correlation has been discovered between solar activity (11-year cycles) and the numbers of large earthquakes, of fatalities during large earthquakes, and of tsunami.
These conclusions are provisional and intended for better understanding of the research findings presented in the following sections.
From "The global energy spike” section
One of the most distinct indicators of energetic processes in Earth’s core is the speed of movement of its geomagnetic poles. There are different theoretical models that explain the drift of the geomagnetic poles; however, regardless of the model considered, it is obvious that a significant “leap” in the velocity of the North geomagnetic pole points to an energy increase at the level of Earth’s core and surrounding layers. The leap in the velocity of the North Magnetic Pole by more than 500% might be related to significant changes in the energy processes in its inner and outer core. In that case, the release of Earth’s internal energy must lead to increased planetary endogenous activity in the form of large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
On the other hand, a sharp change in the speed of Earth’s North Magnetic Pole movement must also have an impact on global climate change. It is known that Earth’s magnetic field influences plasma motion, electric currents, and general electrical properties of the upper region of the ionosphere. In addition, Earth’s geomagnetic field captures high-energy charged particles and has a significant effect on magnetospheric processes.
From the “The Role Of Natural Factors In Global Climate Change” section
One of the most important issues in global climate change studies is to reveal the priority of anthropogenic or natural factors’ influences. In recent years, more and more scientists feel inclined to conclude that natural processes are the primary cause of global climate change.
IPCC’s stance is well-known. Now, let us review some basic geologic factors which are also capable of affecting global climate change.
We shall consider the basic natural factors which may have a significant impact on global climate change:
1.Drift of Earth’s geographic pole
2.Drift of Earth’s geomagnetic pole and fluctuations of magnetospheric parameters
3.Change of the angular velocity of Earth’s rotation
4.Change of Earth’s endogenous activity
5.Solar activity
The ultimate goal of any research is to acquire objective knowledge of the subject being studied. Opinions of different scientists on the problem of global climate change may vary, but in order to get a correct answer to questions arising, one has to consider and analyze all existing views. Only after a generalized analysis of arguments of all parties involved, it will be possible to determine the degree of both the anthropogenic and natural factors’ impact on Earth’s climate. To do that, researchers having different opinions must be equally provided with a platform to speak out.
In recent years, many researchers have come up with scientific justification of the fact that it is incorrect to call global climate change global warming. The average annual temperature variations are cyclical in nature, with the natural factor playing a big role in those processes. Presently, the average annual temperature growth rate has declined substantially as evidenced by NASA and Hadley data given in D. Sc. Jarl R. Ahlbeck’s study (Abo Akademi University, Finland 08.10.2008, _http://www.factsandarts.com/articles/no-significant-global-warming-since-1995/).
Fig. 79 contains a graph showing changes in Earth’s surface temperature between 1995 and 2009, according to Hadley data (D. Sc. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, 2008). It is clearly seen from the graph that over the last 15 years, the global temperature on Earth’s surface has not increased, but rather has dropped to some extent. A similar pattern is observed for temperature changes in the troposphere. Fig. 80 indicates some decline in the overall tropospheric temperature trend during the period reviewed. Thus, it becomes evident that temperature may fluctuate within certain limits, regardless of the anthropogenic factor, due to natural processes on Earth and within the solar system.
- The role of Earth’s volcanic activity in global climate change is significantly higher than assumed.
- Increased degassing of the mantle during the periods of intensification of Earth’s endogenous activity can be one of the main factors causing global temperature changes. This process occurs as a result of the following: growing number of volcanic eruptions; increased seismic activity and higher rate of gases entering the atmosphere through deep faults in the crust; deep gases penetrating into the world ocean and subsequently the atmosphere as a result of intensification of the spreading processes. All this ought to result in higher amount of greenhouse gases released from the mantle into the atmosphere. For instance, the volcanic activity index from 1850 to the present day has grown by 80-85% as compared to the background value. Therefore, it is logical to assume that the amount of volcanic gases emitted during volcanic eruptions has increased during this period by 80-85% as well.
- An important role in climate change is attributed to global changes in the parameters of the geomagnetic pole and magnetosphere; this refers in particular to the more than 500% increase in the north magnetic field’s drift rate and reduction of the geomagnetic field intensity. Today, the impact of magnetospheric processes on Earth’s climate is considered a proven scientific fact.
- Global climate change is also affected by solar activity, solar constant variations (flux of solar radiation) in particular, which is also a proven scientific fact.
...
As a result of the studies conducted, a conclusion has been drawn about the beginning of the so-called global “energy spike” in our planet’s energy manifesting itself across all its strata: the lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere and magnetosphere. The starting point for the global “energy spike” is roughly 1998.
The global “energy spike” is explicitly reflected in the soaring statistical indicators for the vast majority of natural disasters most dangerous to humanity: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, tornadoes, hurricanes, storms, floods and forest fires.
The role of natural factors in global climate change is much more substantial than suggested in the official IPCC conclusions.
From the section “POSSIBLE FORECASTS OF SOME NATURAL CATACLYSMS AND COSMIC PROCESSES” :
We are not trying to predict specific events since it is too complicated and controversial an issue. Our objective is long-term forecasting of changes in the next decade’s dynamics of global seismic and volcanic activity and tsunami manifestations. Tsunamis typically result from seismic and volcanic activity except for rare cases when they may be caused by other geological processes.
In producing long-term forecasts, we have been relying on the well-known principle which long-term forecasts in all areas of science are based on. The principle is as follows: “To look into the future, one must study the past well”.
We have carried out long-term forecasting of the evolution of global seismic, volcanic, tsunami and solar activity. The forecasting was based on identification of cyclicities and other regularities in the distribution of numbers of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis for past periods of time and use of the established regularities in the development patterns for future processes.
All long-term forecasts for natural disasters have been made for the period between 2010 and 2016. Two cycles of increased activity with peaks in 2011 and 2013 and a local minimum in 2012 have been identified in long-term forecasts for large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. By 2016, a decline in activity of all geodynamic cataclysms is expected.
Global changes in a number of geophysical parameters and the high correlation of the period of “explosive intensification” of natural disasters throughout the entire volume of Earth including the lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere over the past two decades – all are indicative of release of an unusually high level of extra endogenous and exogenous energy.
The expected activity of natural disasters may have very serious negative consequences for the stable progress of civilization, leading to death and destruction unprecedented in human history. Economic implications for countries prone to natural disasters may be catastrophic.
It is necessary to unite scientists, international organizations and governments of various states under UN auspices in order to take effective measures to counter natural disasters and minimize casualties and damage they cause to humanity.
The full report can be viewed here :
http://geochange-report.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=35&Itemid=84
It’s also downloadable as pdf after a short registiration.
Note to moderators : I haven’t deactivated the links i put in the post for easier access for those who are interested and since I think they are not from a disinfo source. But maybe i am wrong. So please let me know if i should do so.
