Why did it snow in october?

Happyville said:

In 1986 in Calgary before moving, a Chinook wind was blowing hard in mid October with a warm westerly flow - it was in the mid 20's c (70's). To the North, a massive black cold front ridge stretching from west to east pushed down and withing a very short time period the temperature went from those mid 20's to minus -20's. Note: "Halley's comet appeared in the inner Solar System in 1986"

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Calgary is in Chinook valley and has been for-ever - I am not sure the comet has anything to do with the Chinook!

A few years following, in April/May, a winter storm hit that snapped telephone poles like tooth-picks - thousands of them it seemed as well as steel transmission towers being folded over like they were tinfoil - yup, took notice then.

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Also very normal ( although extremely dangerous ) is freezing rain - which is a danger in March April and May because its a transitional spring weather period for the central / eastern Canada ! Kids don't go to school when there is a chance of freezing rain!

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Hi Happyville,

I'm not sure what the purpose was of your post, but it seems to me you are coming across as argumentative. If I'm misunderstanding your post, I apologize.

Usually, if one wanted to decide if a weather event was anomalous or typical, they would have to perform an analysis of, at the bare minimum, the intensity and duration of the event and then compare it against the historic record for that location and time of year. I don't know what MnSportsman's reason for posting mention of the specific Chinook and ice storm in terms of whether they we anomalous or merely interesting examples of extreme weather changes with a note that they occurred around the time of a comet's appearance, but the gist of your post is to suggest they were typical and not related to a comet, even though MnSportsman's mention of the comet was as a note and not offered as a cause.

So, was your assertion is based on some form of analysis or were you merely applying the faulty logic that, since Chinooks occur pretty much every year, that there would be no reason to consider the specific Chinook mentioned was any different than the usual? The same applies to the ice storm mentioned. Although freezing rain is not uncommon, the episode mentioned seemed to have been more severe than usual.

The equivalent to that logic would be to suggest that since we, in Eastern Canada experience freezing rain almost every year, the freezing rain we had in 1998 was typical, even though it was referred to as the Great North American Ice Storm of 1998, that snapped hydro and telephone poles and trees like toothpicks and left millions in the dark, some without power for weeks, shut down Ottawa and Montreal, and required the military to be deployed in Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick.

I'm not suggesting these events were part of a larger pattern, as I haven't performed the necessary analysis. So I can't say either way. But I am curious why you are feeling the need to take a side and defend it.

It might be useful to consider why you felt the need to post what you did, to go back and investigate the thoughts, feelings and sensations that lead you to post. It might provide the opportunity to uncover programs which you can work on. For example, if MnSportsman's post made you feel you needed to set the record straight, what was behind that? Could it be that you have a difficult time with change and require things to be stable? How does that manifest, what is behind such a requirement, what emotions are evoked? This type of probing helps unravel the layers of thoughts, emotions and, ultimately early experiences that form our mechanical, reactive nature.

I'm not suggesting these examples apply to you, merely giving them as examples of self observation and evaluation as processes of self work.

Once again, if I'm way off base, forgive me.

Gonzo

Gonzo said:

MnSportsman said:

In the short time I have looked so far, the only places( found 3) that seem to possibly have the information about 1940 "world" weather events requires me to pay a fee to see what they have to offer. Since I have no desire to "buy a pig in a poke" By saying that, my meaning is: pay for something & not know what I am getting, since the information they seem to offer , may not be what I want.
I am halting my search for a time.

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I think the point is that a "once in a century" storm happening in one place is interesting, but if such "once in a century" events are occurring all over the globe, that's no longer an isolated event but part of a larger pattern.

I think it is fair to imagine, as residents of parts of the world where we are accustomed to significant fluctuations in weather, we can easily take it for granted. There are several places in the world that are accustomed to predictable patterns that are now experiencing unnerving changes, if not devastating extremes.

Those of us in the Northern American states and throughout most Canada need to change the paradigm of our thinking. We need to start paying more attention to change over time for our own weather patterns as well as consider the global phenomena. We need to see our weather in context of local and global climate.

For example, our Northeastern coastal communities are seeing an increase in frequency and intensity of storms, with higher winds, lower temperatures and greater precipitation. And further inland, we have seen devastating floods in Quebec and even into parts of the prairies. Sure, we've always had such events, but they are growing in intensity and frequency and, when we consider such events as part of a global phenomena, we are seeing aspects of something much bigger, much more threatening to our planet.

Around the planet we are witnessing increased incidents of flooding, droughts, snowfall, and unusually cold temperatures in some areas and intense heat in others. Combining climate with other events, like earthquakes, mass animal die-offs, etc., the picture that emerges is both terrifying and fascinating.

in fact, SOTT have been researching and reporting on changes, both on Earth as well as the solar system for some time. Great effort seems to have been invested in developing solid theories to explain these changes so that more people can become aware, spread the knowledge and prepare themselves. They seem to be among the few, if not the only ones, to have been connecting the dots of so-called chemtrails, earthquakes, changes in cloud formation, astronomical events and changes changes (including comets, solar activity, and events on other planets), animal die-offs, economics, agriculture and food production (including biotechnology), climate change, as well as climate politics, and several other seemingly unrelated (to mainstream science) events, and have shared the results of their efforts without fail.

If you are unfamiliar with these topics, it might be a good idea to spend some time on SOTT and read as much as you can. SOTT is not only an excellent source for news you might not find elsewhere, they also provide in-depth analysis on many of the topics that should concern us all.

Regards,
Gonzo

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I agree. It's when you combine the dot connecting of all these events in SOTT with subjective experience that the point gets driven home. From my subjective experience, in the past ten weeks (living in New England and traveling to California in that time) I experienced a hurricane (rare but not unheard of this far north, an earthquake one mile from the epicenter ("only" 4.0, but still shocking for an easterner), and this freak October blizzard (people still without power almost a week later). Now snow is not unusual in October, but it is usually a light dusting. Heavy snow rarely comes before Thanksgiving in late November. So what you have is increased precipitation, increased violence of storms, and earth changes leading to more earthquakes. None of these things by themselves are unusual. YET! But climate is non-linear and complex, and all it would take is a big volcano or a space object hitting that would kick up enough dust and then we might see snow in July.

I'm not sure what the purpose was of your post, but it seems to me you are coming across as argumentative. If I'm misunderstanding your post, I apologize.

Usually, if one wanted to decide if a weather event was anomalous or typical, they would have to perform an analysis of, at the bare minimum

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Hey Gonzo... Totally don't mean to be argumentative - but simply to present a neutral stance on weather - basically that that things could be "mother nature" / natural reactions to natural or man-made variables.

It is the variables that seem difficult to scrutinize without at least acknowledging a neutral stance in a complex context.

An illustration...

When I ( personally ) sneeze, It is almost always twice and and the "velocity" of the sneeze could be said to be a normal and predictable event, however there are times ( and for unknown reasons ) an"out of the ordinary" sneeze where I may sneeze 3-5 times and perhaps with where a LOT of sputum is ejected - perhaps this would be called a sever sneeze...

The number of sever sneezes may increase or decrease in frequency over an X = time frame . For sure there is cause and effect so if environmental allergens increase it is probable that so too would the severity of the sneeze. But all things considered it is hard to say for certain that frequency / severity that it is out of the realm of the ordinary when compared at a clipped time line of Earths weather history.

If however, ones eyes popped out when they sneezed, perhaps that would be considered "out of character" for the event of sneezing...

End of illustration...

Much of the data ( individual / collective weather examples ) presented is still within the character of "normal" or "possible" when the argument is regarding severity / frequency of events. There are simply too many variables when in comes to weather, not the least of which are the millions / billions of years of X = time, that it is hard to fathom an all encompassing objective analysis.

At what point does a field of study have too many variables to to discount a "neutral" theory - to consider the possibility that things are "normal" in a complex context? Otherwise does it not then become pseudoscience, or observation / speculation at some point?

As for my program... I prefer to blame Canada :)

Al Today said:

MnSportsman said:

[...]
I appreciate anyone who points it out to me that they do a wonderful job.....

to a point.....
[...]

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Could you please elaborate on what you mean with that comment?
What is the point?

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To me, & what I meant was:
Being redundant can seem helpful. When a person decides to post only to affirm redundancy, & not to add constructively otherwise. Then, to me, it has reached a "point" that perhaps it should be mentioned.

In this thread Sott has been mentioned in most of the posts. I did not count, but I did go back & check. By the time I posted the "quoted" post I am replying to, It had gone beyond the OP topic direction & was appearing to get redundant to me... Thus, in my own way, I posted, including SOTT to affirm appreciation & to reference that it had been mentioned a lot.

I hope that answers your question. & hopefully not take it too personally.

:)

I would also like to mention that I been an observer of weather, due to my occupation in construction & military service( Aircrew), & in my life long pursuits in the woods, afield, & on water from the time I was a small child. It was taught to me to watch animals& birds, the sky, wind direction... (basically"nature") to glean from them what the future could hold in regard to weather. Both night & day, in order to make decisions that sometimes might mean survival. I am well aware that as , I believed mentioned by Laura, that the weather has grown increasingly bizarre, & unusual since 1985 or perhaps before. I am also well aware that when I first posted in this thread, I was agreeing with Happyville that people in my area of Minnesota take the weather more as a topic to discuss & not so much considering what is so extreme about it. Since they live in a region of extremes , as most of them, including me, will tell you. ( For example, Summer high temps in the 90-100 deg. F. range to -25--40 below -0- F. in Winter). Tornados/Severe Thunderstorms /Rain/flooding/Blizzards with high snowfall etc, are just another thing to deal with in living here, since they happen with regularity. So most here, take what many would call unusual weather , as just a part of living here & do not always consider it to be unusual , even though those in other regions of the world may consider the weather here unusual. My mentioning the 1940 Armistice(Veterans' Day) storm was mentioned as unusual because it is still discussed today as unusual for them at the time. & occasionally the Icestorm/Blizzard of Halloween in '91 or '92, or perhaps some particular bad Flood, like '65, or '69 is also used as a "benchmark" of comparison to what ever current weather phenomena is being dealt with/discussed at the time. So in a land of extremes, the use of those "unusual" storms as reference is what makes many phenomena not so unusual to us/them. That was basically I was trying to say in my mention of that storm & how what is unusual to some, may not be to others....

Last nite/this morning I went & looked, using New York as the state of choice, searched the NCDC/NOAA climate record search engine & found that Oct Snowstorms occur there every couple years. I used (2000-2011), although I could have used a wider spread, I just wanted to see what the recent decade showed. Believe it or not, it was only about 2 years ago that a heavy storm hit there in Oct at the end of the month (27th-30th) that lasted several days causing quite the hassle. There were a few more years in that decade that are apparent when it is searched. So depending on your outlook, as was mentioned, Oct. snow, may not be all that unusual, but this latest storm may be to others.

Yes, things are changing & not for the better. I have seen that, personally , with or without Sott. I hope that people who are hit with these changes of severity & frequency are able to deal with what they are dealt successfully.
:)

I wish you all well.
Respectfully,
JB/MnSportsman


>>I posted this & another has posted. Since I have to go. I will post regardless & if corrections need to be made, I will see when can return.

MnSportsman said:

[...]
I hope that answers your question. & hopefully not take it too personally.
[...]

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MnSportsman, No problem. No offense taken here.
I appreciate what you say. I did wonder how this thread ran, or still runs as long as it has. I have often wondered how many of us wanted to make a statement in some other thread about something or another, but did not due to external consideration. Then again, being human does lend to saying what is on ones mind. This is not a chit chat forum. If anyone does get out of hand, the moderators do an excellent job to support forum guidelines.

We have had snow in the mountains since mid October off and on. The first two snow drops did not last long, as temps moved from cold, to cool, to warming back and froth over the last 3 weeks. Temp.s moved up to the low 70,s F (21 c) a few days ago, even with a clod cover.

It's raining tonight, with cool temps, and rain will bring a few more inches at the higher elevations with a dusting of snow.

Happyville said:

<snip>But all things considered it is hard to say for certain that frequency / severity that it is out of the realm of the ordinary when compared at a clipped time line of Earths weather history.<snip>

Much of the data ( individual / collective weather examples ) presented is still within the character of "normal" or "possible" when the argument is regarding severity / frequency of events. There are simply too many variables when in comes to weather, not the least of which are the millions / billions of years of X = time, that it is hard to fathom an all encompassing objective analysis.

At what point does a field of study have too many variables to to discount a "neutral" theory - to consider the possibility that things are "normal" in a complex context? Otherwise does it not then become pseudoscience, or observation / speculation at some point?

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Well, the geological record DOES show, going back a VERY long time, that the general pattern of the earth's climate has been roughly 100,000 years of full-blown ice ages with about 10,000 years of warmer interglacial periods (this is just a bit oversimplified and I'm not going into mini-ice ages and "relapses" when coming out of a major ice age, etc.). Last ice age ended MORE than 10,000 years ago. So, from what you've said above, from the "perspective" of the geological record, another sudden onset of an ice age IS "normal" and not "unusual." But from the perspective of our modern "civilization" and living with our cozy illusions, it will be QUITE shockingly unusual and extreme. Just saying.

Just got power back on here in New England after 6 days without, due to our strange "Halloween nor'easter". Some of us are lucky enough to have the power back up already but there are places in surrounding towns that may not have power restored for another two weeks!

It looks like a war zone here, trees and branches are down on literally every house, driveway, power line and street in central MA. Never saw anything like this before.

There are telephone poles bent over hanging across the roads and wires from them look like giant spider webs hovering just feet above the streets, you still can`t even get through to some locations! I am lucky enough to have a well I could drop a bucket into for water and a good size fireplace for heat and cooking, and was stocked up on lanterns and oil for them, but most people don`t have those things and really suffered through this ordeal.

There have been many deaths, but we don`t have an actual count as yet.

The power went out an hour into this storm, a thing that never happens here, and curiously even cell phones would not work. Most roads and even the train tracks were blocked by fallen trees as well, getting to an open store or a gas station in the past week was an ordeal.

There were waiting lines of up to four hours for gas alone, never mind trying to find things like bottled water, or even bread for the people who wanted to get that sort of thing.

Trav`s friends were coming by every night, to hang out and cook meat on the fireplace inside or on the one outside, since they didn`t have anything but flashlights and nothing to cook on at their houses, and it was really hard for teenagers to get through on just sandwiches and bottled water. Some were more upset then others, about being with nothing, and it was interesting to get their reactions and their thoughts about having to live like this for an extended period.
I doubt most of them would survive for very long, if things were even worst.

One odd observation from several sources, was that any vibration would cause the trees to come down the night of the storm! One incident was from a car door shutting which caused a nearby tree to fall and others were actually stamping the ground and causing trees to fall right and left! I was brave enough to go out on the back porch for a few minutes, a couple of different times, but the sound of constant popping, cracking and exploding trees was just to terrifying and I would run back in the house where I couldn`t hear it as clearly!

Two days in, we were hearing about some large black vehicles on tracks, with a long pointed nose cone, on some streets in a nearby town, but I didn`t get to see one of these myself, and strangely there were National Guard in some towns, but not in others.

So, here in New England where we usually don`t get much of anything big weather wise just in the past year we have had a major hurricane, a tornado, an earthquake, severe flooding, and now this early, freaky snow storm, that left the entire area looking like a war zone!

We`re only missing a volcanic eruption and I think we will have had experienced it all..ya gotta start thinking that something`s up!

Maybe time to pack it up and move right outta the north east.

Meager1 said:

One odd observation from several sources, was that any vibration would cause the trees to come down the night of the storm! One incident was from a car door shutting which caused a nearby tree to fall and others were actually stamping the ground and causing trees to fall right and left! I was brave enough to go out on the back porch for a few minutes, a couple of different times, but the sound of constant popping, cracking and exploding trees was just to terrifying and I would run back in the house where I couldn`t hear it as clearly!

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This description struck me as really bizarre. And then, I was reading sott and came across this item:
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/237255-US-Timber-The-dramatic-moment-a-pair-of-250ft-giant-sequoias-that-have-stood-for-1-500-years-fell-to-the-ground

I just strikes me as a really wild coincidence... or not.

Where I live is springtime, and cold whether have extended a bit more, from winter, than usual. Though that is something that has been happening for the last 3 or 4 years.

Meager1, I was unaware of the scale of the destruction this had caused, good to hear that you guys are alright, and that you were able to help out those that are/were less fortunate, in terms of having necessary equipment available for dealing with such a situation.

One would have thought that such destruction would be covered more extensively in the media, considering that destruction seems to be one of their preferred topics. (Maybe a bit too much of a stretch to blame Al-Qaeda in this situation, though).

It wasn`t only the large old trees though, there are a lot of poles like this one that just snapped at the top and are still hanging over the roads

http://interactives.wwlp.com/photomojo/gallery/1364/1/october-snowstorm-aftermath-day-6

This sort of damage below is mostly what I have here in my own yard
where the trees just shattered in several different directions.
The sounds of all this happening went on for hours and was like something out of a horror movie!

http://interactives.wwlp.com/photomojo/gallery/1351/7/october-snowstorm-aftermath-day-4/october-snowstorm-aftermath-day-4/

It was the same scenario here in NW CT. We got a foot and a half of snow. The news reported that the weight of the leaves and snow is what caused so many downed trees. I saw rows of power lines snapped at the tops like toothpicks. Wires and branches were everywhere. Most of my town was out of power for the whole week. There was no gas, grocery stores or banks open for a time. In my town, there were house fires from people lighting fireplaces. I also heard reports of Carbon Monoxide poisoning from misuse of generators. I'm still digesting the events, but at this time, I feel like there was a certain lack of humanity. People seemed cold to me. They were frustrated and angry with the power company and how long restoration was taking. I actually tripped and fell pretty hard in front of a large group of people and not one even asked if I was OK. That just seems weird to me. I can only imagine what a major catastrophe would be like. I would like to think that people would come together in troubled times, but maybe that won't be the case. In my little speck of the world, this was an eyeopener for me.

When we had the bug ice storm a while back, I was surprised at how many people were unaware of the hazards of carbon monoxide poisoning. Many people brought their propane barbecues into the house to cook and heat the house without ever thinking to open windows. I hope you don't have too many cases of that.

It saddens me to hear that no one seems to care if someone slips on the ice and falls. It says a lot about how self-focussed and uncaring for others society has become.

Stay safe and warm. I'll remember you in my prayers.

Gonzo

Of course after 6 straight days of being cold and being worried about the lack of services etc, people were getting irritable which is only natural considering, but everyone was out checking on everyone else here, in fact the night of the storm my nearest neighbor was out in my yard with a flashlight checking to see if there were any trees or wires on the house and if we were ok.
He also got me a small generator 4 days in, to keep the meat in my freezer, frozen, and then he went to stay with a relative who still had power.
People were looking for ways to be helpful and pleasant about the whole thing, there were even some folks sharing the water in their pools for toilet flushing!
We heard the same story about the leaves causing the trees to fall as well, but I didn`t see many leaves on all those telephone poles that came down, and all those conifers, pines and ceders etc, were a whole lot more top heavy, yet most of them are still standing.

But on the bright side, the firewood will be a lot cheaper next year, there must be hundreds of cords on the ground! Another thing is that this was a good lesson for most people to better understand what it is they really need to survive and to be more prepared for something like this the next time, it happens.