JGeropoulas
The Living Force
I want to encourage people to check out the books Aftershock (2011) and Aftershock Investor's Guide (2012) by Robert Wiedemer, M.B.A. and David Wiedemer, Ph.D. These brothers were two of the few who predicted in 2006 (when things were booming post-9/11) that the stock market would crash and the real estate market would collapse in 2008 (as they did).
David is a leading expert on macro-evolutionary economic analysis (e.g. politics, technological developments, natural disasters, etc.). His work in information dynamics, technological evolutions and economic history form the basis for their books. David's computer algorithms seek to detect evolutionary transition points of economies vs. the repetition of historical market cycles.
These guys are hard-core realists who are systematic thinkers and able to explain things in simple terms. They will not soothe you, but they will guide you. They are quick to warn that Aftershock is not a book that's reassuring, complex, academic or supports the status quo.
In other words, they seem to be the "catastophists" in the "uniformitarian" world of economists But they speak from a calm position of "knowlege is power," not fear-mongering to sell something (they already manage over $200 million of private investment funds). The primary impetus of their work is to empower people to not only survive, but even position themselves to thrive despite the upheaval ahead.
For example, they warn people to avoid 2 types of financial advisers:
The Comforters, who say, “The economy may struggle, but will bounce back, just like always.”
The Cheerleaders who say, “The economy will continue growing, just like always.”
They also explain several important psychological factors which will prevent most people from taking steps to avoid financial disaster. The most important one is called “Normalcy Bias,” meaning few people can wrap their mind around the possibility of something happening which they’ve never experienced during “normal” times.
Their core premise is that the U.S. economy is composed of 7 artificially-inflated "bubbles" which began to pop in 2008 and will continue in a sequence now that cannot be halted. Using math and simple logic, they explain our economy is locked in this inescapable sequence that will result in a crash psychologically more devastating than the Great Depression, and which will ripple around the globe.
As can be seen, I highly recommend their books, which address broader topics than just investing (e.g. which jobs will be most secure). There are links at the very end for video summaries of their ideas as well as a simple way to obtain a free copy, as I did.
This is the sequence in which these bubbles of the U.S. economy will "pop"
1 – Real Estate Market
2 – Discretionary Luxuries
3 – Bond Market
4 – Stock Market
5 – Foreign Investment
6 – Consumer Debt
7 - Government Debt
Here's my summary of their advice and estimated time-frame from their latest book, but please read it for yourself before making any decisions!.
SHORT-TERM FUTURE (2012-2013)
Portfolio Recommendations:
1) Gold
2) High-Dividend Stocks
3) Shorter-Term Treasuries
4) TIPS
5) Foreign Currencies
6) Commodities
7) Short Stock ETF’s
8) Short Bond ETF’s
Stocks will be fairly stable (with occasional 100 – 200 point drops in a day) as long as:
1) the Fed is able to continue printing money without significant inflation
2) the government can continue massive borrowing
General Stock Recommendations:
1) buy high-dividend stocks (e.g. electric utilities, healthcare)
2) monitor inflation (_bls.gov or _shadowstats.com)
3) consider LEAP’s or Inverse Index ETF’s
4) monitor cues shifting to Medium Term phase
Bonds will be fairly stable as long as:
1) the U.S. looks like a safer haven than Europe
2) the Fed is able to continue printing money to keep interest rates low, which is likely in this phase.
General Bond Recommendations:
1) buy a diversification of government-backed, lowest-risk, short-term bonds (mortgage-backed securities, short-term Treasury Notes, T-bills, TIPS)
2) monitor interest rates
3) exit bonds sooner rather than later (see Table 5.2 on page 146 regarding exit timing for various type bonds)
4) monitor cues shifting to Medium Term phase
Gold prices will
1) remain volatile
2) likely be manipulated
3) increase no more than 10%
General Gold Recommendations:
1) physical gold is preferable to certificates for gold deposits
2) monitor cues shifting to Medium Term phase
MEDIUM-TERM FUTURE (estimated for 2014-2015)
Portfolio Recommendations:
1) To be determined (Monitor Aftershock Newsletter and Monthly Alerts for revised recommendations for this phase. You may review back issues and listen to audio forum discussions here:_http://www.aftershockpublishing.com/admin/code/adminpages/AdminPage_MemberInfo.aspx#ITEM-Newsletter)
Stocks will begin crashing once:
1) inflation rate climbs to 5%-10% (and the usual 2-year lag behind QE’s shrinks to just weeks)
2) interest rates rise
3) QE4 has little affect on the market
4) bankruptcies begin increasing
5) lending rates begin dropping
Bond demand will increase at first due to stocks dropping, then:
1) decline due to interest rates climbing
2) those with weaker issuers/higher interest rates will fail first
Gold prices will rise as:
1) inflation and interest rates rise
2) stocks, bonds, real estate values drop
AFTERSHOCK PHASE (Estimated to begin 2014-2016)
Events like these could accelerate the time-frame
1) European debt crisis issues
2) economic downturn in China
3) U.S/Israeli attack on Iran
Stocks should be sold before:
1) foreign investors begin exiting
2) remaining bubbles start popping
Bonds should be sold before:
1) bond companies begin liquidating, which floods the market and devalues bond prices
2) U.S. government becomes unable to borrow additional funds, so ceases protecting it’s credit rating and defaults on most of it’s bonds
3) the final bubble of government debt pops
Gold prices will shoot up due to (see the 7 factors listed on pages 199-200)
Portfolio Recommendations:
1) To be determined (Monitor Aftershock Newsletter and Monthly Alerts for revised recommendations for this phase. You may review back issues and listen to audio forum discussions here:_http://www.aftershockpublishing.com/admin/code/adminpages/AdminPage_MemberInfo.aspx#ITEM-Newsletter)
RELATED RESOURCES
John Williams holds an M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named the Edward Tuck Scholar. Soon thereafter, he launched a successful 30-year career as a consulting economist to Fortune 500 companies. In recent years, John created this site to inform the public about government economic propaganda.
_ShadowStats.com
HYPERINFLATION 2012 – SPECIAL COMMENTARY (January, 2012) by John Williams, M.B.A.
_http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-special-report-2012
Catherine Austin Fitts comments on Fed’s qualitative easing strategy
_http://solari.com/articles/quantitative_easing/
Power-point presentation by an ex-pat Russian economist explaining the challenges Americans will face compared with the Russians during the collapse of the Soviet Union – very informative and thought-provoking from someone who’s been through this experience first-hand in memorable history.
_http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259
Global-systemic-crisis-October-2012
The-global-economy-sucked-into-a-black-hole-and-world
_http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-67-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-October-2012-The-global-economy-sucked-into-a-black-hole-and-world_a12189.html
Global-systemic-crisis-September-October-2012
Red-alert
_http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-66-is-available-Red-alert-Global-systemic-crisis-September-October-2012-When-the-trumpets-of-Jericho-ring-out_a11079.html
Global-systemic-crisis-December-2011
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 1) - An insolvent and ungovernable United States
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 2) - The unstoppable US economic spiral: Recession/depression/inflation
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 3) - The breakdown of the US socio-political fabric
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 4) - Five strategic proposals to modernize the US institutional system
_http://www.leap2020.eu/Excerpts-and-public-announcements_r41.html
About this unique European think-tank
_http://www.leap2020.eu/Everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-GEAB_r28.html
The Federal Reserve--The Ultimate Pyramid Scheme
_http://www.libertyforlife.com/banking/federal_reserve_bank.html
You can get Aftershock free here:
_www.SurviveTheAftershock.com
(All you have to do is agree to receive a 3-month trial subscription of some excellent financial newsletters. Then, in 3 months, they’ll contact you by mail and e-mail to ask if you want to continue with a paid subscription. There are no strings attached.)
In the meantime, check out the two excellent videos linked on the next page.
VIDEO: The authors of Aftershock explain how they’ve arrived at their conclusion
_http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UseYKxDLnOw
VIDEO: Porter Stansberry, who also predicted the 2008 crash, discusses the social impact of a crash (uniquely presented) _http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1110PSITESVD/LPSIN185/PR
David is a leading expert on macro-evolutionary economic analysis (e.g. politics, technological developments, natural disasters, etc.). His work in information dynamics, technological evolutions and economic history form the basis for their books. David's computer algorithms seek to detect evolutionary transition points of economies vs. the repetition of historical market cycles.
These guys are hard-core realists who are systematic thinkers and able to explain things in simple terms. They will not soothe you, but they will guide you. They are quick to warn that Aftershock is not a book that's reassuring, complex, academic or supports the status quo.
In other words, they seem to be the "catastophists" in the "uniformitarian" world of economists But they speak from a calm position of "knowlege is power," not fear-mongering to sell something (they already manage over $200 million of private investment funds). The primary impetus of their work is to empower people to not only survive, but even position themselves to thrive despite the upheaval ahead.
For example, they warn people to avoid 2 types of financial advisers:
The Comforters, who say, “The economy may struggle, but will bounce back, just like always.”
The Cheerleaders who say, “The economy will continue growing, just like always.”
They also explain several important psychological factors which will prevent most people from taking steps to avoid financial disaster. The most important one is called “Normalcy Bias,” meaning few people can wrap their mind around the possibility of something happening which they’ve never experienced during “normal” times.
Their core premise is that the U.S. economy is composed of 7 artificially-inflated "bubbles" which began to pop in 2008 and will continue in a sequence now that cannot be halted. Using math and simple logic, they explain our economy is locked in this inescapable sequence that will result in a crash psychologically more devastating than the Great Depression, and which will ripple around the globe.
As can be seen, I highly recommend their books, which address broader topics than just investing (e.g. which jobs will be most secure). There are links at the very end for video summaries of their ideas as well as a simple way to obtain a free copy, as I did.
This is the sequence in which these bubbles of the U.S. economy will "pop"
1 – Real Estate Market
2 – Discretionary Luxuries
3 – Bond Market
4 – Stock Market
5 – Foreign Investment
6 – Consumer Debt
7 - Government Debt
Here's my summary of their advice and estimated time-frame from their latest book, but please read it for yourself before making any decisions!.
SHORT-TERM FUTURE (2012-2013)
Portfolio Recommendations:
1) Gold
2) High-Dividend Stocks
3) Shorter-Term Treasuries
4) TIPS
5) Foreign Currencies
6) Commodities
7) Short Stock ETF’s
8) Short Bond ETF’s
Stocks will be fairly stable (with occasional 100 – 200 point drops in a day) as long as:
1) the Fed is able to continue printing money without significant inflation
2) the government can continue massive borrowing
General Stock Recommendations:
1) buy high-dividend stocks (e.g. electric utilities, healthcare)
2) monitor inflation (_bls.gov or _shadowstats.com)
3) consider LEAP’s or Inverse Index ETF’s
4) monitor cues shifting to Medium Term phase
Bonds will be fairly stable as long as:
1) the U.S. looks like a safer haven than Europe
2) the Fed is able to continue printing money to keep interest rates low, which is likely in this phase.
General Bond Recommendations:
1) buy a diversification of government-backed, lowest-risk, short-term bonds (mortgage-backed securities, short-term Treasury Notes, T-bills, TIPS)
2) monitor interest rates
3) exit bonds sooner rather than later (see Table 5.2 on page 146 regarding exit timing for various type bonds)
4) monitor cues shifting to Medium Term phase
Gold prices will
1) remain volatile
2) likely be manipulated
3) increase no more than 10%
General Gold Recommendations:
1) physical gold is preferable to certificates for gold deposits
2) monitor cues shifting to Medium Term phase
MEDIUM-TERM FUTURE (estimated for 2014-2015)
Portfolio Recommendations:
1) To be determined (Monitor Aftershock Newsletter and Monthly Alerts for revised recommendations for this phase. You may review back issues and listen to audio forum discussions here:_http://www.aftershockpublishing.com/admin/code/adminpages/AdminPage_MemberInfo.aspx#ITEM-Newsletter)
Stocks will begin crashing once:
1) inflation rate climbs to 5%-10% (and the usual 2-year lag behind QE’s shrinks to just weeks)
2) interest rates rise
3) QE4 has little affect on the market
4) bankruptcies begin increasing
5) lending rates begin dropping
Bond demand will increase at first due to stocks dropping, then:
1) decline due to interest rates climbing
2) those with weaker issuers/higher interest rates will fail first
Gold prices will rise as:
1) inflation and interest rates rise
2) stocks, bonds, real estate values drop
AFTERSHOCK PHASE (Estimated to begin 2014-2016)
Events like these could accelerate the time-frame
1) European debt crisis issues
2) economic downturn in China
3) U.S/Israeli attack on Iran
Stocks should be sold before:
1) foreign investors begin exiting
2) remaining bubbles start popping
Bonds should be sold before:
1) bond companies begin liquidating, which floods the market and devalues bond prices
2) U.S. government becomes unable to borrow additional funds, so ceases protecting it’s credit rating and defaults on most of it’s bonds
3) the final bubble of government debt pops
Gold prices will shoot up due to (see the 7 factors listed on pages 199-200)
Portfolio Recommendations:
1) To be determined (Monitor Aftershock Newsletter and Monthly Alerts for revised recommendations for this phase. You may review back issues and listen to audio forum discussions here:_http://www.aftershockpublishing.com/admin/code/adminpages/AdminPage_MemberInfo.aspx#ITEM-Newsletter)
RELATED RESOURCES
John Williams holds an M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named the Edward Tuck Scholar. Soon thereafter, he launched a successful 30-year career as a consulting economist to Fortune 500 companies. In recent years, John created this site to inform the public about government economic propaganda.
_ShadowStats.com
HYPERINFLATION 2012 – SPECIAL COMMENTARY (January, 2012) by John Williams, M.B.A.
_http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-special-report-2012
Catherine Austin Fitts comments on Fed’s qualitative easing strategy
_http://solari.com/articles/quantitative_easing/
Power-point presentation by an ex-pat Russian economist explaining the challenges Americans will face compared with the Russians during the collapse of the Soviet Union – very informative and thought-provoking from someone who’s been through this experience first-hand in memorable history.
_http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259
Global-systemic-crisis-October-2012
The-global-economy-sucked-into-a-black-hole-and-world
_http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-67-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-October-2012-The-global-economy-sucked-into-a-black-hole-and-world_a12189.html
Global-systemic-crisis-September-October-2012
Red-alert
_http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-66-is-available-Red-alert-Global-systemic-crisis-September-October-2012-When-the-trumpets-of-Jericho-ring-out_a11079.html
Global-systemic-crisis-December-2011
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 1) - An insolvent and ungovernable United States
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 2) - The unstoppable US economic spiral: Recession/depression/inflation
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 3) - The breakdown of the US socio-political fabric
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 4) - Five strategic proposals to modernize the US institutional system
_http://www.leap2020.eu/Excerpts-and-public-announcements_r41.html
About this unique European think-tank
_http://www.leap2020.eu/Everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-GEAB_r28.html
The Federal Reserve--The Ultimate Pyramid Scheme
_http://www.libertyforlife.com/banking/federal_reserve_bank.html
You can get Aftershock free here:
_www.SurviveTheAftershock.com
(All you have to do is agree to receive a 3-month trial subscription of some excellent financial newsletters. Then, in 3 months, they’ll contact you by mail and e-mail to ask if you want to continue with a paid subscription. There are no strings attached.)
In the meantime, check out the two excellent videos linked on the next page.
VIDEO: The authors of Aftershock explain how they’ve arrived at their conclusion
_http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UseYKxDLnOw
VIDEO: Porter Stansberry, who also predicted the 2008 crash, discusses the social impact of a crash (uniquely presented) _http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1110PSITESVD/LPSIN185/PR
