The Day After Tomorrow scenario just begun?

Ellipse

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
A giant ice block part of the Larsen C ice shelf is breaking off of a glacier in Antarctica.
More can be read here or here.

I don't know if a chunk of ice can really have all this effects for real but this is how The Day After Tomorrow scenario begin:

Paleoclimatologist Jack Hall and his colleagues, Frank and Jason, are drilling for ice-core samples on the Larsen Ice Shelf for NOAA when the shelf breaks apart. When Jack later presents his findings on global warming at a United Nations conference in New Delhi, he fails to convince diplomats or U.S. Vice President Raymond Becker. However, Professor Terry Rapson of the Hedland Climate Research Centre in Scotland believes in Jack's theories. Shortly after, several buoys in the North Atlantic simultaneously register a sharp drop in ocean temperature and Rapson concludes that melting polar ice has begun to disrupt the North Atlantic Current. He contacts Jack, whose paleoclimatologic weather model demonstrates how climate changes caused the first ice age.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrow
 
SOTT carried the story on Jan 6th. https://www.sott.net/article/338858-Larsen-C-ice-shelf-crack-may-portend-formation-of-giant-Antarctic-iceberg

If the ice shelf breaks free, I imagine sea levels will rise causing flooding in many low lying coastal areas. It would also cool ocean temperatures, reeking all kinds of havoc on global climate! As for the North Atlantic Current, it seems to already be showing signs of disruption, given the harsh winters being experienced in Scotland and Europe the last couple of years.

I didn't remember that the movie, The Day After Tomorrow, started with a chunk of ice breaking off this same shelf. But as the C's have said, an ice age can occur like the flip of a switch (paraphrasing).

Hold on to hats boys and girls, things are going to get very interesting! Prepare accordingly. ;)
 
I would be more worried about all the oil that is escaping from the blowout in the Caribbean Sea, as that can affect the Gulf Stream.
As for the ice shelf, seeing as it is already floating, it would hardly affect sea levels. (Archimedes principle)
FWIW
 
Lilou said:
Hold on to hats boys and girls, things are going to get very interesting! Prepare accordingly. ;)

Météo/Neige francetv
14/01/2017 | 19:54
http://www.francetvinfo.fr/meteo/neige/direct-dix-departements-de-l-est-toujours-en-alerte-orange-neige-et-verglas_2017848.html#xtor=EPR-2-[newsletterquotidienne]-20170115-[lestitres-coldroite/titre1]
• The two Corsican departments have been placed in vigilance orange neige-verglas by Météo France. The network operator, Enedis, says there are only a handful of private electric households. But be careful, a wave of cold arrives next week.

In the Pyrenees, where the weekend was ranked at risk, an avalanche claimed the life of a person and made a seriously injured. Heavy snowfall is expected on Sunday.

20:21: Enedis announces the return to normal in "almost all the private homes of electricity". All private electric households will be recharged tonight (but sometimes late at night), sometimes by connecting a generator.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20h01: Tomorrow's weather will be cool, very cool. Details in your city on our weather page
http://www.francetvinfo.fr/meteo/neige/ce-qu-il-faut-savoir-de-la-vague-de-froid-qui-va-frapper-la-france-la-semaine-prochaine_2016638.html

An icy cold will shake metropolitan France on Tuesday, January 17th. After the departure of the storm Egon, which has deprived up to 330,000 homes of electricity on the night of Thursday 12 to Friday 13 January, France will experience a particularly intense wave of cold next week. Here's what you need to know.

>> Follow our direct on the bad weather
What is to be expected?

Temperatures will gradually decrease over the weekend to drop below 0 ° C from Tuesday, according to Météo France. Strong frosts are to be expected. "Many regions, with the exception of the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts, will have days without thaw on Tuesday," forecasters say.

Temperatures could be between 5.8 ° C and 8.8 ° C below normal season, according to forecasts updated on Friday by the operator of the electricity transmission network RTE, but still adjustable in the days ahead. At issue are icy air from Siberia and northern Europe.
How long will this wave of cold chill France?

The cold spell must arrive at the beginning of the week to reach a peak on Wednesday. "This very winter episode should continue at least until the end of the week," said Météo France.

A similar weather phenomenon had hit France in February 2012, recalls the organization. The thermometer was then lowered locally to -16 ° C or even -18 ° C to low altitude. The episode then lasted ten days.
Will there be power cuts?

These low temperatures will be accompanied by a sharp increase in electricity consumption, while many homes heat up with electricity. The electricity grid operator in France, RTE, announced on Friday that it plans to trigger, as of Tuesday, "a part" of the exceptional measures planned to meet the needs during a cold spell.

Several schemes are planned: the voluntary electricity supply shutdown of 21 industrial sites, in exchange for financial compensation. If this is not enough, RTE can reduce the voltage on the network without interrupting the power supply.

Momentary cuts are not entirely eliminated. This would involve scheduled and pre-announced cuts of up to two hours for the households concerned. "At this stage (Friday), there are no scheduled cuts," said a spokesman for RTE.

Concern over France's ability to meet this peak of consumption has grown since about 20 nuclear reactors have been put into maintenance. France usually operates 58 reactors in 19 nuclear power plants.

Have any measures been taken in anticipation?

On Saturday, the government set up a "daily national steering committee" to "anticipate as much as possible the additional needs" and "to mobilize in real time additional devices if necessary".

The Prime Minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, wished "to be established with the prefects a daily assessment of needs". It also called for the mobilization of "necessary exceptional places and the corresponding reinforcement of staff" and that "the full mobilization of local and regional authorities and large associations (mobilization of gymnasiums, communal halls, day-care centers etc.) Insured.

He also wanted the mobilization "of the civil security, the police and the gendarmerie, as well as firemen for the identification and the shelter of the persons concerned".
1484315106_horseshoe-1138710_960_720.jpg
 
Lilou said:
SOTT carried the story on Jan 6th. https://www.sott.net/article/338858-Larsen-C-ice-shelf-crack-may-portend-formation-of-giant-Antarctic-iceberg

If the ice shelf breaks free, I imagine sea levels will rise causing flooding in many low lying coastal areas. It would also cool ocean temperatures, reeking all kinds of havoc on global climate! As for the North Atlantic Current, it seems to already be showing signs of disruption, given the harsh winters being experienced in Scotland and Europe the last couple of years.

I didn't remember that the movie, The Day After Tomorrow, started with a chunk of ice breaking off this same shelf. But as the C's have said, an ice age can occur like the flip of a switch (paraphrasing).

Hold on to hats boys and girls, things are going to get very interesting! Prepare accordingly. ;)

Thanks for the Sott link Lilou, I searched it but I missed it.

@c.a.
I don't think we can make a link between the current cold wave and the ice break as this event is in the future. The problem I see is that we have another event coming: Global freezing: 15-year ice age predicted to hit in only 4 years as sun prepares to 'hibernate'

What will happen if the two are cumulated?
 
Ellipse said:
@c.a.
I don't think we can make a link between the current cold wave and the ice break as this event is in the future. The problem I see is that we have another event coming: Global freezing: 15-year ice age predicted to hit in only 4 years as sun prepares to 'hibernate'

What will happen if the two are cumulated?

ice age can occur like the flip of a switch (paraphrasing).


This is what caught my eye. We have been in the process for some time. The fracture is just another small spike in the graph.

The post IMO indicates a Global acceleration Now. These are the SOTT's of what the C's have indicated of what would be the future of earth changes.
 
Thanks for the clarification.

So yes, we can have a conjuncture of three phenomena : "amplified normal" cold due to low Jet Stream + low Sun + low or stopped Gulf Stream.
 
MusicMan said:
[...]As for the ice shelf, seeing as it is already floating, it would hardly affect sea levels. (Archimedes principle)
FWIW

Yes, that is a good point. If that ice part is already floating on the sea (aka no landmass under it) it can't change the sea level when it breaks up. What it can do though, is causing rather big waves, if it breaks up suddenly and/or violently.

I guess we would need to find out if that ice shelf is on land and is in danger of falling into the ocean, or if it is already floating. Here is the wikipedia article about the Larsen C ice shelf:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larsen_Ice_Shelf#Larsen_C

I think that part is already floating, so danger of sea level rise. See here for example, for where it is located and how big the rift is at this point:

7BLA5K.jpg


The picture description says:

The current location of the rift on Larsen C, as of January 2017. Labels highlight significant jumps. Tip positions are derived from Landsat (USGS) and Sentinel-1 InSAR (ESA) data. Background image blends BEDMAP2 Elevation (BAS) with MODIS MOA2009 Image mosaic (NSIDC). Other data from SCAR ADD and OSM.

Also notice that wales is depicted on the right, for size comparison.

Source here: http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/larsen-c-ice-shelf-poised-to-calve/

PS: Indeed there isn't much left until the rift is complete, as you can see in the picture above. When and if the the total break up occurs, is another question, since the rift can already be complete on the surface but until it breaks up completely (downwards) towards the sea, it CAN take longer (not MUST). I guess we will see it rather soon.
 
about the Larsen Ice Shelf you have to keep in mind that it is currently summer in anarctica. the extent of this shelf ice is only comparable between antartic ice extent minimums. melting ice makes it into the media quite often as opposed to growing ice.
you can watch some antarctic seasons here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLCfF7BLii4
you can see there that the region around the Larsen Ice Shelf is affected in different degrees from year to year at january/february.
 
I would like to expand a bit on the above, because indeed that break up could lead to interesting things, depending on quite a number of variables.

If that ice shelf breaks up (and it pretty much looks like it will, but we don't know when (but rather soon it seems), there is indeed a good chance that this rather large junk of ice will start floating elsewhere.

A quite significant detail, that I just rediscovered, doesn't seem to mentioned by any of those articles. In the antarctic there are seasons, and depending on the season the actual ice sheets around antarctica can be much bigger or much smaller.

See here:


https://youtu.be/MLCfF7BLii4

1. As you can see above, the biggest extent of ice around antarctica is in its winter season (roughly from march - november) and much less in the summer season (december - february). In fact, antarctica has only two seasons. More information about the seasons in antarctica here.

2. The part of the Larsen C ice shelf, that is about to break up (see my last post above) sits in an interesting place of antarctica. If it breaks up, the likelyhood of it floating toward south america (or further upward towards america and the golf stream) and/or toward africa/europe, or towards australia is a real possibility.

Here a picture of the ice shelfs around antarctica (notice that only the yellow, blue, orange and pink ice shelfs would be likely candidates that can float towards north (aka america and europe and the golf stream):

78SN0M.jpg


The yellow one above is Larsen C.

3. Depending on WHEN it will break up (aka in which season of the antarctic) the actual ice land mass, that it could potentially carry further north, could be much bigger then what is stated by all those articles.

4. A look at the ocean currents and sea waves in that region could give a clue where the ice berg could be heading. Notice the landmasses it could float towards (aka toward south america, africa and/or europe and america further up. Or out towards australia).

5. Depending of the ice extend when it breaks up, and the variables where it could float to, it could also get stuck between south africa and the tip of the landmass of antarctica, which could lead to complete close up of that channel and thus a shutting off between the pacific and the atlantic. A quite significant disruption of those currents could be the result. See yellow circle below:

7ZG8VG.jpg


6. Besides the ocean currents and wave patterns, another variable could determine where that ice shelf floats to: Wind patterns and especially heavy storms like hurricanes. So where it could float to, is rather hard to say at this point.

7. The overall extent of the ice sheets in the antarctic, has set records in the last couple of years, in both directions.

So to sum up: Depending on when that shelf breaks up completely, and in which condition (large ice cover = winter season or low ice cover =summer season), and the other parameters like ocean currents, wave patters and wind patterns at that time, a rather large junk of ice could float upwords and or to the left or right and disrupt warmer ocean currents quite significantly. If it is big enough it could even float up to the golf stream towards america and/or europe. Of course the further north it travels the more ice will melt away on the way. That shelf could also stay where it is since the currents and wind patterns don't allow it to escape. Or it could get stuck between south america and the antartic. So quite a number of possibilities there, some of which could be quite disruptive, or so it seems.

COULD get interesting.
 
Pashalis said:
So to sum up: Depending on when that shelf breaks up completely

7BLA5K.jpg



The path remaining to complete the cut have approximatively the same length as the path travelled during 2016.
So, 2017+1 year, it mean the iceberg would detach in January 2018 or a bit before as the trend seem to accelerate ?

About the drift speed of iceberg I found those equations but this is in French (I put it here for the record):

Etant à la surface de l'océan, un iceberg se déplace grâce aux vents et aux courants qui le poussent. Les vents ont un impact sur la partie émergée de l'iceberg et les courants sur la partie immergée.

Pour calculer le déplacement d'un iceberg, il faut déjà en connaître la proportion immergée et celle émergée afin de quantifier l'impact des courants et du vent sur ces différentes partie.

À partir de la connaissance des constantes ci-dessous :
Densité de la glace = densite_glace = 920 kg/m3
Densité de l'eau de mer = densite_mer = 1030 kg/m3

On calcule la fraction immergée par la formule :
Fraction_immergee = densite_glace / densite_mer

La fraction émergée se déduit par la formule :
Fraction_emmergee= 1 -Fraction_immergee

Avec ces petits calculs, on se rend bien compte que la partie visible de l'iceberg, c'est-à-dire la partie émergée est une toute petite partie de l'iceberg.

Pour calculer la vitesse de déplacement de l'iceberg du aux courant, il faut d'abord définir l'ancrage de l'iceberg dans l'eau. Cela se calcule par la formule :
Ancrage = hauteur_iceberg / hauteur_couche_melangee

Ensuite la vitesse de déplacement de l'iceberg du aux courant est calculée par la formule :
Vitesse_iceberg_courant = vitesse_courant * Ancrage

De façon similaire, pour le vent, on calcule la force d'entraînement du vent sur l'iceberg par la formule
entrainement = fraction_emmergee * hauteur_iceberg / hauteur_couche_vent

Ensuite la vitesse de déplacement de l'iceberg du aux vents est calculée par la formule :
Vitesse_ iceberg_vent= vitesse_vent * entrainement

Enfin, la vitesse de déplacement totale de l'iceberg est la somme des vitesses de déplacement du aux vent et aux courants, soit :
Vitesse_deplacement_iceberg = Vitesse_iceberg_courant + Vitesse_ iceberg_vent

Remarque : hauteur_couche_melangee et hauteur_couche_vent sont les épaisseurs, respectivement de l'océan et de l'atmosphère, sur lesquelles s'appliquent, respectivement la vitesse du courant et la vitesse du vent. Considérons ces grandeurs comme des constantes avec :
hauteur_couche_melangee = 200 m
hauteur_couche_vent = 100 m
http://argonautica.jason.oceanobs.com/html/argonautica/ocean/suivi_icebergs_fr.html

As a general law I found this :
The average drift speed is around 0.7 km/h, although speeds greater than 3.6 km/h have been recorded.
http://www.newfoundlandlabrador.com/ThingsToDo/IcebergFacts

Now, is an iceberg able to disrupt warmer ocean currents quite significantly? If we gather data about the positive energy convey by such currents, we can compare it with the negative energy contain in this iceberg, so it would show a rough estimate. Anyone?
 
Ellipse said:
[...]Now, is an iceberg able to disrupt warmer ocean currents quite significantly? [...]

Good question. We don't really know if that would or could be the case. Maybe there is some research out there that has studied that? I'll try to find something.
 
Lilou said:
SOTT carried the story on Jan 6th. https://www.sott.net/article/338858-Larsen-C-ice-shelf-crack-may-portend-formation-of-giant-Antarctic-iceberg

If the ice shelf breaks free, I imagine sea levels will rise causing flooding in many low lying coastal areas. It would also cool ocean temperatures, reeking all kinds of havoc on global climate! As for the North Atlantic Current, it seems to already be showing signs of disruption, given the harsh winters being experienced in Scotland and Europe the last couple of years.

I didn't remember that the movie, The Day After Tomorrow, started with a chunk of ice breaking off this same shelf. But as the C's have said, an ice age can occur like the flip of a switch (paraphrasing).

Hold on to hats boys and girls, things are going to get very interesting! Prepare accordingly. ;)

I keep wondering if the C's recent warning in the December 10 session should be taken literally as a reference to a major shift into the looming ice age?

A: Just hang on and observe what happens in the next 40 or so days. It will give you chills up your spine.
 
JGeropoulas said:
Lilou said:
SOTT carried the story on Jan 6th. https://www.sott.net/article/338858-Larsen-C-ice-shelf-crack-may-portend-formation-of-giant-Antarctic-iceberg

If the ice shelf breaks free, I imagine sea levels will rise causing flooding in many low lying coastal areas. It would also cool ocean temperatures, reeking all kinds of havoc on global climate! As for the North Atlantic Current, it seems to already be showing signs of disruption, given the harsh winters being experienced in Scotland and Europe the last couple of years.

I didn't remember that the movie, The Day After Tomorrow, started with a chunk of ice breaking off this same shelf. But as the C's have said, an ice age can occur like the flip of a switch (paraphrasing).

Hold on to hats boys and girls, things are going to get very interesting! Prepare accordingly. ;)

I keep wondering if the C's recent warning in the December 10 session should be taken literally as a reference to a major shift into the looming ice age?

A: Just hang on and observe what happens in the next 40 or so days. It will give you chills up your spine.

Yeah, maybe that is the connection. In that case they literally meant we would feel chills up our spine. :)
In Montenegro we have already experienced -27C during this winter at the north of the country, what I think is a record since the measuring of temperature has been established.
It will be also interesting to see what will the following winters bring to this climate changes.
 
PerfectCircle said:
JGeropoulas said:
Lilou said:
SOTT carried the story on Jan 6th. https://www.sott.net/article/338858-Larsen-C-ice-shelf-crack-may-portend-formation-of-giant-Antarctic-iceberg

If the ice shelf breaks free, I imagine sea levels will rise causing flooding in many low lying coastal areas. It would also cool ocean temperatures, reeking all kinds of havoc on global climate! As for the North Atlantic Current, it seems to already be showing signs of disruption, given the harsh winters being experienced in Scotland and Europe the last couple of years.

I didn't remember that the movie, The Day After Tomorrow, started with a chunk of ice breaking off this same shelf. But as the C's have said, an ice age can occur like the flip of a switch (paraphrasing).

Hold on to hats boys and girls, things are going to get very interesting! Prepare accordingly. ;)

I keep wondering if the C's recent warning in the December 10 session should be taken literally as a reference to a major shift into the looming ice age?

A: Just hang on and observe what happens in the next 40 or so days. It will give you chills up your spine.

Yeah, maybe that is the connection. In that case they literally meant we would feel chills up our spine. :)
In Montenegro we have already experienced -27C during this winter at the north of the country, what I think is a record since the measuring of temperature has been established.
It will be also interesting to see what will the following winters bring to this climate changes.

Oh, about the C's remark that we would feel chills up our spine and the probable connection to the cooling down (freezing?) of our planet, that was a surprise to me until you mentioned, as I thought only of the political context until now. These images from Russia are frightening:


https://youtu.be/0PeZRKbUSHc
 
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