Author Topic: Update on Chandler's Wobble  (Read 4767 times)

Offline anart

  • The Living Force
  • ********
  • Posts: 16,725
Update on Chandler's Wobble
« on: March 09, 2006, 04:30:58 AM »
From:  http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/2006_wobble_anomaly.htm


 The Anomaly In The  Earth’s Wobble Continues
The Polar Motion Anomaly of 2005/2006

                    ECB – March 1, 2006, MWM)  After nearly 120 days of deeply anomalous motion which began at the beginning of November 2005, the Spin Axis is showing some signs of returning to a normal wobble track, but only very slowly.  During January the Earth ceased its wobble motion for a full month and then during February the Earth’s motion began to slowly move its wobble track back to the starting point of the current anomaly.

                    For the past two weeks this motion has been nearly straight up the X Plot (Greenwich Meridian), dipping Greenland/England slightly to the North.  But there is still almost no net motion on the Y axis aside from minor quivers such as are typically caused by atmospheric and tidal conditions.

                    This gradual return to what the track was during 2005 will not normalize the Earth’s Wobble.  The old, normal wobble cycle has “lost” at least 120 days, that’s four months out of a 14 month cycle.   Thus it is likely that a major phase shift has occurred in both the 14 month wobble cycle and the primary 7 year cycle in the “Chandler Amplitude”, known here as the Primary Axis Cycle.

                    This “event” may be even more radical that a truncation of the cycle.  It appears as of March 1, 2006 that an entirely new cycle is generating itself around a radically shifted average or mean location for the Spin Axis.  This new cycle appears to be shifted about 180 degrees in phase from the old cycle.  This appearance, however, may deepen or gradually disappear during the next three months.  More likely than not we will have to wait until Summer 2006 to “cap” our description of just what this anomaly is.

                    For the latest Wobble Tracker graph of Polar Motion as of February 21, 2006, see

                    http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/plots/ wobbletrac_Feb21_06.gif
(Anart here - this link is not currently working, I'll try to find another to the graphic)

                    In the Wobble Tracker graph the small red “tip” is where the wobble “paused” during January.  The small blue line headed south coming down from it is the motion of the wobble ~February 10-22. The spiral black line is the track of the wobble during 2005 (until January 5, 2006)
                    Normally at this time in the spiral motion of the wobble, the track of the moving Spin Axis would be moving to the right hand of the graphs of polar motion.  The track should be nearly at the lowest point it would reach this year (on the Wobble Tracker chart) and should begin to slowly spiral back up towards the top of the graph no later than about the beginning of May at the latest.

                    AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED:  This anomaly is still on-going though the wobble is obviously beginning to recover part of its old pattern.  Quite obviously we can deduce that there is a relatively large, developing anomaly in the spiraling motion of the spin axis, including a major phase shift, a shortening of the length of the normal 7 year cycle, the tightening of the spiral motion into an exceptionally small spiral, and a major acceleration in the drift of the Spin Axis (secular drift of the poles, or so-called True Polar Wander).

Guest

  • Guest
Update on Chandler's Wobble
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2006, 02:51:53 PM »
This phenomenon is worth keeping track of. The thing is, most of the sites I found keeping track of it are Edgar Cayce oriented, in that they try to associate it with catastrophic changes to fit certain "prophecies".

I don't think the wobble irregularities necessarily imply catastrophe, but they do effect the planet and maybe there are reflections from other dimensional modes here as well. Purely from an intuitive standpoint it seems to me to be an adjustment phenomenon to accomodate changes in progress, like the zone people on the general forum described regarding mental fog and disruptions. As long as the wobble is still unstable the planet is still accomodating itself to new conditions. At some point these should eventually become clear, but I do not think the result will be geologic catastrophe.

Offline anart

  • The Living Force
  • ********
  • Posts: 16,725
Update on Chandler's Wobble
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2006, 07:15:13 PM »
I agree completely, EsoQuest.  The major point of interest for me is that 'something' is happening and that we have data from before it started to happen that stretches back quite some time.  It's just very interesting to observe it.  I think it is an adjustment, no question, but I also think that it is likely to have geo-physical ramifications.  Whether these are manifested in earthquakes, volcanoes or both, I suppose we'll see, but the possiblity that this alteration in the spin pattern of this big blue marble will affect its surface seems very high indeed.  I also wonder what other aspects of our reality are or will be affected by the mechanism behind this spin alteration. We know that the Indian Ocean earthquake at the end of 2004 altered the rotation of the planet to the extent that an adjustment had to be made on global atomic clocks- what are the the possible other ramifications in terms of gravity/time/3d reality, considering the actual spin speed of the planet was affected?

Offline anart

  • The Living Force
  • ********
  • Posts: 16,725
Update on Chandler's Wobble
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2006, 05:57:23 AM »
As of 3-22-06...

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/2006_wobble_anomaly.htm

Earth SystemsPolar Motion Monitor HomepagePolar Motion Monitor
Major Anomaly In Chandler's Wobble - 2005/2006
The  Wobble Is On The Way
The Polar Motion Anomaly of 2005/2006

last revised March 22, 2006

                    (ECB March 22, 2006, MWM)  The Earth’s wobble appears to have recovered its motion during the past week and is now moving at a fairly brisk pace southeast towards Europe.  For the first time in a little over four months, there is relative motion in the wobble on both the X and Y dimensions.  Once again, as can be seen in the Wobble Track diagram below, the spiraling circular track from 2005 to date in 2006 (red)  has resumed.  It looks now fairly similar to the spiral track for the X MIN phase during 1999/2000 (shown in black).  The current track even seems like it may begin paralleling the previous MIN track with a displacement in the range of 0.04 arcsecond.

                     I have not looked at the current IERS predictions for how the track will shape up in the months ahead because I don’t think anything can be predicted at the moment.  All I would see is what the computers think the ideal wobble track is from past performance. The current motion is still too anomalous for such fantasies.  The track is substantially distorted from the previous 7 year cycles and the wobble has lost or gained (it is not really clear which is which at the moment) at least 4 months of a normal 14 month spiral around the average center point.  All the time which was spent in the “hook” of the red track is lost time.  It is the place where the wobble hung from November 2005 to about the beginning of March 2006. This is nealrly 30% of  a normal 14 month spiral, such as is described by the black track in the diagram below.  For a cycle which is created mainly by orbital vectors, indeed for any regular mechanistic cycle, this 30% fluctuation is decidedly huge and remains beyond comprehension at the current time.

                    AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED: For the time being I am going to stay with my earlier guess:   a phase shift of AT LEAST 3.5 months has occurred.  The wobble may actually have abruptly ended its normal cycle in November 2005 after a large hop in the average location of the Spin Axis which began in December 2004 with the Great Tectonic Plate Rupture in Sumatra. We may be in a new cycle emerging from the new X low and beginning the first spiral track  (an X MIN track) for the next seven year wobble cycle.  For the moment this is pure speculation, stay tuned, it will take another few months to resolve what is happening.

                    For the wobble tracker graph of Polar Motion as of March 21, 2006, see

                    http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/plots/wobbletrac_March21_06.gif

Offline ArdVan

  • Jedi
  • ****
  • Posts: 243
Update on Chandler's Wobble
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2006, 07:39:29 AM »
Here's another link I use to check the wobble, which is updated every week:

http://hpiers.obspm.fr/iers/eop/eopc04/eopc04-xy.gif
"Humour has it's roots in pain. Dark humours foundations lie deeper." / Heinrich Wiesner

Guest

  • Guest
Update on Chandler's Wobble
« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2006, 01:50:52 PM »
The wobble phemonenon is very interesting from a physics standpoint. In other words, its not just a geophysical event, but contains a powerful energy field component as well. The planetary field is most condensed at the poles so the regular cyclic wobble is also a wobble in the field. The magnetic field at the poles concentrates charged solar wind plasma that rides the field lines. So when it moves they move and corresponding currents are generated.

As the earth is a giant capacitor, charge motion in the upper atmosphere corresponds to charge motion on the surface and beneath it. This invariably influences our own complex electrochemical nature as well. Up to the wobble stall these have been fairly regular, and it stands to reason that human biology (with possible epigenetic effects as well as neurological ones among others) was adapted to the cycle.

This has tremendous implications regarding the stall itself, and the fact that a permanent phase shift of 3.5 months is in place (if the wave amplitudes and frequencies of the cycle have not permanently changed as well) implies a corresponding biological/bioenergetic adaptation. Even without the tectonic/volcanic effects this is quite a major hallmark event in these changing times.

Offline anart

  • The Living Force
  • ********
  • Posts: 16,725
Update on Chandler's Wobble
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2006, 05:53:57 AM »
Hi - a few things - I checked the Michael Mandeville site last week and there was no update listed since April 12th, but this evening, I checked again and there are two updates listed, from May 3rd and May 24th   http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/2006_wobble_anomaly.htm  --- so, first, the May 3rd one (posted much later than May 3rd)

Quote from: Michael Mandeville
(ECB May 3, 2006, MWM)
Uncertainty still rules.  As during the prior two weeks, the wobble continues to zig and zag making a total mockery of IERS models.  From the perspective of this week, the wobble looks like it is hung in a specific longitude of the Earth.  It appears that the Spin Axis is trying to move down ~ Longitude East 45 or thereabouts. During the 1998/99 anomaly at the X MIN phase of the Wobble, the passage of the wobble past this same sector of the Earth was definitely conflicted, showing a definite hesitation with a ragged line against movement further to the East from its diagonal down the X Plot.  The same condition has appeared during this X MIN phase of 2005/2006.  The conflict is substantially more obvious, much more than enough to make mincemeat out of all attempts of the IERS computer to predict the course of the Spin Axis since November 2005.

 Metaphorically it is as if the "gear" of the revolving Earth is grinding ruggedly and perhaps breaking up at this "rough spot".  Since the X position of the Spin Axis is moving into higher numbers, it means that it is moving closer to England down Greenwich Meridian.  But actually it is moving at an angle of 45 degrees to the East, towards Northern Russia. OR, TO SAY THE SAME THING IN REAL MOTION OF THE CRUST, the crust of the Earth is moving UP Long. East 45 across the equator with more vector vigor than in any other direction.

 What will happen next is anyone's guess.  We may just see a continuation of random chaotic motion for a spell.  We may be seeing the beginning of a new cycle trying to emerge out of the old cycle.  The new cycle may have already begun and we may already be in the second loop of a seven year cycle, or we may be back to the fourth loop of the old seven year cycle.  Confused?  Yep, chaos is confusing.

 Accordingly, all previous thoughts and predictions I have made during the past several months about tectonic motion is highly tenuous to say the least.  Until we know where we are in the cycle of the wobble, we cannot use past patterns as a guide to prediction with any real confidence.

 My GUESS, which is consistent with my earlier guesses,  is that the wobble is already expanding rapidly into a new 14 month spiral, having past the MIN point in January, nearly a year early.  The logic of this is based on the idea that the wobble decayed to net zero during January (for the first time since recording of the wobble began in the 19th century) and is now generating a new 14 month spiral.  If so, we will see a major expansion of tectonic motion and activity this year in all forms of behavior.  The 8.0 plus quake today in the Tonga Islands may be part of this expansion of activity.  If so, large earthquakes will be more probable and more frequent than ever and  volcanic activity should become vociferous at record highs.  Accordingly, we should have a lulu of an El Nino set in during 2007 and perhaps extend into 2008.

 HOWEVER, as I look at the latest charts of X plot [URL below] , one cannot help thinking that the Spin Axis wobble could have turned into a sinuous snaking motion with a frequency of a few weeks in a duration and is now simultaneously rapidly moving away from its previous average location which was only very slowly moving.   The pattern could be a change of direction from West 70-80 or so to East 45 or so, with the speed change in the nature of switching from low gear diesel truck to jet propulsion.  Could be.  Could be this is the type of pattern we will see another two or three times before the final take-off of the Phoenix.

 But I don't think this is anything dramatic at the moment.  The Earth's equilibrium is conflicting mightily with something along vector East 45 (or its mirror opposite on the other side of the Earth).  The Y dimension of movement will probably continue to slowly recover, then faster and faster as the wobble focus finally twists out of this current quadrant of the Earth.
So, he's watching it, but is really not sure what the heck is going on  - not too surprising, since no one is really sure what the heck is going on.  So...... then, there is today's update of May 24th, where he brings fractals into the mix --

Quote from: Michael Mandeville
(ECB May 24, 2006, MWM)
I believe that we can begin to call what has happened in this year's polar motion anomaly.  Some uncertainty about the motion of the Spin Axis is still present but here is my prediction.  Larry Parks (Terra Research) in an email message to me termed the anomaly a "cartioid loop".  This is a classic fractal function in which a new expanding spiral loop function spontaneously emerges out of a contracting loop.

 For the latest wobble track on this, see

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/plots/wobbletrack_Oct2004-May24_2006.gif

[please note that time flows in a counterclockwise spiral in these graphs, so follow the lines in a counterclockwise direction to find the latest end point date which is printed on the upper right hand side of the graph.]

 Note that the red line portion is for 2005 through to the current date.  The junction with the blue line portion is about the date of the Sumatra Tsunami.  As you can see we CANNOT detect any disturbance in the wobble track related to that 9.6 megaquake on December 25, 2005.  There may have been some, but if so it was filtered out by the mathematical algorithms used by IERS to smooth the curves from the noise of random daily fluctuations.  It may be that the mass shifts associated with the rupture began the deflection of the normal spiral track which resulted in the early truncation, but to sort out that issue it will take some sophisticated mathematics based on the averages of the spiral tracks heading into the MIN phase.

 At this juncture, and armed with this cartioid concept (being a non-mathematician I would never have thought to look at fractal functions but I now can see that this makes a very great sense) I believe we now have what we can call a spontaneous shifting of the Earth's Spin Axis during approximately January 2006.  The last 7.1 year cycle of the wobble closed up during November and December 2005 and abruptly terminated some 10 months early.  In other words, a normally 7.1 year cycle truncated into about 6.2 years, a RECORD BREAKING anomaly.

 The Spin Axis also significantly shifted its average location.  Since this shift was within the range of its seven year spirals, no usually sharp shift in tectonic activity occurred at the time.  The exact amount of the shift cannot be exactly defined at the current time but here is the range:  15.4 cm/yr to 41.16 cm/yr.

arcseconds
0.03 arcs
0.08 arcs

inches
36.4572
97.2192

meters
0.9261
2.4696

feet
3.0381
8.1016

 To find the low end of the range, look at the parallel between the tracks of the 1999 X MIN phase (in purple) with the current X MIN phase (in red).

 For this comparative wobble track, see

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/polarmotion/plots/wobbletrack_compare_1999_w_Oct2004-May24_2006.gif

 One can see a displacement of about 1.5 grid units, making a total displacement of about 0.03 arcseconds. That's close to one meter for some six years of polar drift, which averages out to some 15.4 cm/yr, which is higher than the long term average rate of drift of approximately 12 cm/yr,  but not radically higher.  It is equivalent to a modest acceleration in the rate of drift, such as from 30 mph to 37 mph.

 To find the high end of the range, let us suppose that the cartioid loop (which is best thought of for this purpose as the tip of the anomalous line which juts into towards the interior of the spiral and then out again) IS the drop dead average location of the pole during this phase of time.  The wobble spiral basically collapsed and the spinning Earth pivoted and spontaneously generated a new spiral with its center of gravity at that same point.  Using that as the comparison, the drift from the old 1999 average center (of the spiral) to this new center is about 0.08 arcsecond.

 This is radical acceleration in the drift of the pole, some 41.16 cm/yr. This is equivalent to an increase in acceleration from 30 to over 100 mph.  It is by far the greatest acceleration in the drift of the Spin Axis (TPW) since 1900, and probably since record-keeping began.  (19th century records are a little "thin" and it is rather difficult to know exactly what was happening without making a lot of presumptions).

 This will displace the spiral track of the Spin Axis by some 2.5 meters or 8 feet.  The greatest spiral at X MAX phase in about 3.5 years will be displaced in location by about 18%.  This will force new patterns of shape shifting in the Earth, alter the seasonal loading pattern on the Equator, and generate many new patterns in earthquake, volcano, uplifting, downwarping, and Rift compression and expansion patterns.  Like the 1936 hop in the Spin Axis, this one will most likely bring in a 21 year period of substantially greater numbers of great quakes (above 7.0) and a vast expansion in volcanic activity.  Global warming will radically increase and its curve will fluctuate in fits and starts, not even achieving its highest level from this current and on-going Change In The Earth until the 2020's.    

  Another way to see this hop in the average location of the Spin Axis, view the latest IERS waveform plots of polar motion rather than the spiral waveform of the Earth's normal wobble.  Scroll down the following page to find the X and Y Plots.  On the X plot, observe the right hand side, see the hump on top of a previous hump.  The top of the previous hump represents the new zero line (average location of the spin axis in the X dimension).  Quite a shift, is it not?
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/topten_monitor.htm
Hmmm....  I'm very curious if this 'fractal' business is even vaguely valid in this context, and since when I think fractals, I think Ark, I'm curious if Ark thinks that this is a 'hooey' explanation or if there might actually be something to it, form the data presented.  My personal 'opinion' is, "I have no idea" - however, the tracking of the wobble certainly indicates some sort of major shift has taken place, but the implications, and the mechanism, are beyond me.