Israel-Palestine War: Hamas Breaks Out of Gaza, Israel Responds With Genocide

[WhiteMountain]

Hal claims to have covert intel sources in other countries but it's a lie. His "covert intel sources" are just info he copied and pasted from Telegram and Twitter/X accounts. Info that he got for free and puts behind a paywall. On several occasions, he screwed up and left it open for everyone to view and it was always stuff that I saw on Telegram or Twitter a day earlier. He's not a very reliable source of info IMHO.

That is sort of what i meant about "Hal is really bad at filtering news and overhyping stuff" - he often gets stuff off other channels and posts it to his site, and he is absolutely HORRIBLE and vetting it and misinterpreting it, not to mention the overhyping. But just because you copy some stuff does not mean you are copying everything and you have no info. And he has made some really good calls in the past early too - and usually it is when he specficially says it was his joint terrorism task force people; so I am not inclined to just believe he is lying his ass off on having sources overseas. That is one of the few reasons I pay attention to his site. Those people also have been wrong a good amount as well - I seem to remember he and his sources were the first overhyping the hell out of COVID - so I am not implying they are perfect either and are not as in the know as they think they are. But if he is saying 44 Mossad people were killed and he is getting that from internal sources, I don't see any reason for them to lie on that given the backdrop of the report.

 

[Ketone Cop]

That is sort of what i meant about "Hal is really bad at filtering news and overhyping stuff" - he often gets stuff off other channels and posts it to his site, and he is absolutely HORRIBLE and vetting it and misinterpreting it, not to mention the overhyping. But just because you copy some stuff does not mean you are copying everything and you have no info. And he has made some really good calls in the past early too - and usually it is when he specficially says it was his joint terrorism task force people; so I am not inclined to just believe he is lying his ass off on having sources overseas. That is one of the few reasons I pay attention to his site. Those people also have been wrong a good amount as well - I seem to remember he and his sources were the first overhyping the hell out of COVID - so I am not implying they are perfect either and are not as in the know as they think they are. But if he is saying 44 Mossad people were killed and he is getting that from internal sources, I don't see any reason for them to lie on that given the backdrop of the report.

I get it, I've followed Hal too and found he's often a legit source of info. But as I've discovered, all the best disinfo peeps have 90% good info to lure you in, and then they poison-pill you with that nefarious 10% bad juju. And: in my very last post on this very thread, I provided a link and a shout-out to Western Rifle Shooters Association. Just after I did that I read some more posts on that same site by people who absolutely believe that Islamic people are apes who plan to infest the rest of the world and take us over from the inside by out-procreating us because that's what their religion professes.

Yeah I'm not gonna go down that mind warp path, thanx. The Islamic people I've met in real life were just like me: loving beings who simply wanted peace. So, I continue to learn, too.

I do think that WRSA site has interesting viewpoints worth considering, as does Hal Turner. But the way I approach them now is as lanes of information to pursue for more truth, not AS the truth in and of itself. And also: there are NO other places on the internet where I would feel completely safe sharing what I just did in this post, than HERE. This remains the ONLY place on the current internet where I have tried to share information where I have not been judged for the political "tilt" of my information, instead of the TRUTH of it. And I learn more from the honest reactions and replies to my posts here than anywhere else, because of same.

 

[KJS]

I think that the geopolitical goals of the "US empire" faction were just as important in Ukraine, namely to prevent closer cooperation between Russia and the EU/Germany.

And that goal was accomplished too for now, though the way it was achieved may backfire on the "US empire" and play into the hands of the "ultraglobalist faction" that wants the US weakened or even dismantled.

Blowing up Nordstream, using the dollar system to confiscate sovereign assets and the loss of the war in Ukraine all weaken the US position in the world.

I'd also say that, as some commentators in Poland say, recent NATO additions will accelerate its decay, as the Anglo-Saxons will no longer have their "controlling stake." Sweden and Finland might become more aligned with German influence than the US and UK because of geopolitical reasons, giving Germany an edge in decision-making.

 

[axj]

I'd also say that, as some commentators in Poland say, recent NATO additions will accelerate its decay, as the Anglo-Saxons will no longer have their "controlling stake." Sweden and Finland might become more aligned with German influence than the US and UK because of geopolitical reasons, giving Germany an edge in decision-making.

To me it looks like Germany has become completely subservient to the Anglo-Saxons, even more so than Merkel (who at least got Nordstream finished despite huge resistance). Schröder's more independent Germany seems like a completely different world now, just 20 years later.

 

[Joe]

Dmitry Belik, a member of the Russian parliament's International Affairs Committee, called the recent Iranian attack on Israel "A Beautiful Theatrical Production".

This coincides with yesterday's statement by the Iranian Foreign Minister that Iran notified neighboring countries 72 hours before the "attack".

Belik speculated that there was "a simple agreement" because high-ranking political figures cannot allow the actions of unfriendly countries to go unnoticed, so they have to respond".

Belik then added that "there are no photos or video evidence on the Internet" to back up claims of Iran having supposedly inflicted serious damage on Israel’s military bases. "Everything we see now…is a planned scenario of 'revenge'" he said.

 

[Joe]

Ritter makes an excellent case for what actually took place: a demonstration, as opposed to a genuine attack. Back channel agreements don’t change the reality of what this was.

Not sure I agree with him making a good case. Ritter, like others, has a history of exaggerating the impact and effectiveness of his chosen side's prowess. He has done this, for example, with Russia in Ukraine.

I think his claims about Iranian missile capability in this video are suspect because what he claims goes beyond what we have seen of Russian missile capabilities in Ukraine, and I think it unlikely that Iran has superior missile technology to Russia.

 

[Niall]

Not sure I agree with him making a good case. Ritter, like others, has a history of exaggerating the impact and effectiveness of his chosen side's prowess. He has done this, for example, with Russia in Ukraine.

I think his claims about Iranian missile capability in this video are suspect because what he claims goes beyond what we have seen of Russian missile capabilities in Ukraine, and I think it unlikely that Iran has superior missile technology to Russia.

Yeah, this is the problem with assuming that two opposing sides, no matter how fervently each would like to 'wipe the other off the map', ever really go 'all-in' with their strikes and counter-strikes. Ritter acknowledges that Iranian strikes were limited, but assumes that US-Israeli air defenses were 'dialed up to the max', and thus failed to stop all incoming missiles. But if Israel knew, either ahead of time, or once strikes had been launched, that the incoming objects were, say, without real or significant explosive warheads, or that they were targeted at the perimeters and remote sections of the runways of those two airbases, would they bother engaging all their air defense systems to ensure that every one of them is shot down mid-air?

As per Donald Trump, the Pentagon knew ahead of time in January 2020 that incoming Iranian missiles were aimed at "the perimeter" of the al-Asad airbase housing US troops in northern Iraq:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779282812786614668

Having said that, it subsequently trickled out that many US troops at that airbase were injured with "concussion," so maybe one or two strikes were in fact closer than "the perimeter," and Trump was deliberately downplaying their danger to US personnel so that he and the US could 'save face'.

Ritter's right about one thing though: this counter-strike by Iran has 're-set' things in the region.

The airstrikes targeting Israel on Saturday night originated from four countries: Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. This speaks to the level of coordination and commitment between those countries, and reinforces the raging paranoia in Israel that it is surrounded by a 'conspiracy of terrorists'.

The strikes, while symbolic and theatrical, were more of a 'win' for Iran and the Axis of Resistance than for Israel and the empire. The main thing the Iranians are happy with appears to be the precedent this sets for the next time(s) the Israelis strike/drone/assassinate anything Iranian, anywhere: rather than more words of condemnation, and maybe targeting of Israeli assets outside Israel (like they did in Erbil, northern Iraq, following the terrorist attack at Soleimani's commemoration in January), they'll just hit Israeli military infrastructure directly - in Israel.

That threshold has been crossed, and now this dynamic of strike and counter-strike could go on for years, as we've seen in the former Ukraine, but the $64,000 question is, will the Israeli regime eventually accept defeat and a 'new reality', as Kiev is surely destined to, or, 'on its way down', will it 'go Samson' on as much of the region (or even the world) as it can?

Ukraine, unlike Israel, doesn't have secretly-placed nukes in foreign capitals, and aboard stealthy subs in the world's oceans...

 

[Evan]

Not sure I agree with him making a good case. Ritter, like others, has a history of exaggerating the impact and effectiveness of his chosen side's prowess. He has done this, for example, with Russia in Ukraine.

I think his claims about Iranian missile capability in this video are suspect because what he claims goes beyond what we have seen of Russian missile capabilities in Ukraine, and I think it unlikely that Iran has superior missile technology to Russia.

Yes, I actually posted that some time before I watched your NewsReal podcast. You and Niall discussed the speed of the visible impacts on the videos vs hypersonics. So yes I would agree with you that he does overstate things. Simplicus the Thinker breaks down the actual models of the missiles shown being launched in his Substack also.

 

[Evan]

, but the $64,000 question is, will the Israeli regime eventually accept defeat and a 'new reality', as Kiev is surely destined to, or, 'on its way down', will it 'go Samson' on as much of the region (or even the world) as it can?

Indeed. Ritter literally said in his most recent interview that as long Ben Gurion Airport is open, the world can sleep soundly in their beds. Personally nothing any one of these guys says lessens my need for Ambien.

 

[youlik]

Dmitry Belik, a member of the Russian parliament's International Affairs Committee, called the recent Iranian attack on Israel "A Beautiful Theatrical Production".

For some reason, it seems that way to me too. It is quite expensive, but still a theatrical production without the desire to cause serious damage.
Next, the Iranians declare the possibility of striking 1,000 ballistic missiles. What prevented them from doing it right away?

Iran's Supreme National Security Council has decided to strike Iraq with more than 1,000 ballistic missiles
Iran's Supreme National Security Council has decided to increase the scale of strikes against Israel tenfold in the event of an escalation of the conflict by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to Major General Mohammad Baqeri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian armed forces, in case of further escalation, Iran is ready to strike with more than a thousand ballistic missiles.

This statement was made against the background of recent events, when Iran, in response to Israeli attacks, fired more than 300 missiles and drones towards Israeli territory. The incident has caused significant tension in the region and concern of the international community.

General Bakeri stressed that in any case, Iran will defend its interests and respond to any military threats to the full extent of its capabilities.

"If Israel continues its aggressive actions, our response will be much larger than today's strikes," he said in an interview with state television.

Experts, in turn, believe that such a large-scale strike is unlikely to be possible, since this means that Iran will have to spend a third of its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, however, they urge Israel to behave with restraint.

Высший совет национальной безопасности Ирана принял решение ударить по Израилю более чем 1000 баллистических ракет

The only thing that is not completely clear to me is the situation with hypersonic missiles. The data on their use are ambiguous and it is impossible to draw clear conclusions. So far, it seems to me that there has been a passing technology check. No wonder all such missiles were aimed at desert areas, so that even when they reached their goals, on the one hand, it could be said that the targets were hit, on the other hand, the real damage was minimal.

Satellite images of strikes on the Israeli Air Force base have appeared
During yesterday's Iranian attack, the Nevatim airbase in Israel suffered damage, but according to information from the press service of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the damage turned out to be minor. IDF representatives reported that thanks to the effective work of the Israeli Air Force and the support of strategic allies, it was possible to shoot down all unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles aimed at Israel even outside the country.

Information about minor material damage to the infrastructure is also confirmed by satellite images available to Avia journalists.pro, on which three impact points are visible. Earlier, Russian expert Shurygin claimed 7 accurate hits of hypersonic missiles at an airbase in the Negev Desert, but this information was not confirmed.

Nevertheless, several ballistic missiles were able to overcome the air defense system and exploded in the immediate vicinity of the runway of the Nevatim airbase. Despite this, the damage to the base's infrastructure was minimal, and after a short period, the Air Force engineering services carried out the necessary repairs.

Появились спутниковые снимки ударов по авиабазе ВВС Израиля

Iran's missile strike damaged Israeli air bases — ABC News

At least nine Iranian missiles overcame Israel's air defense system and damaged two air bases, ABC News reported.

As a result of a massive strike last weekend, five ballistic missiles struck the Nevatim airbase, damaging a C-130 transport aircraft, a runway and storage facilities, according to American media.

Four more missiles struck an airbase in the Negev Desert.

At the same time, the US and Israeli authorities officially claim that the Iranian attack could not cause significant harm.

https://rusvesna.su/news/1713164307

Spoiler: Russian spelling

Мне почему то тоже так кажется. Это довольно дорогостоящая, но всё же театральная постановка без желания нанести серьезный ущерб.
Дальше иранцы заявляют о возможности нанесения удара 1000 баллистических ракет. Что им мешало сделать это сразу? Единственное, что не совсем ясно для меня, это ситуация с гиперзвуковыми ракетами. Данные по их применению неоднозначны и четких выводов сделать не получается. Пока мне кажется, что тут имело место попутная проверка технологии. Не зря все такие ракеты были направлены на пустынные районы, чтобы даже при достижении ими целей можно было с одной стороны сказать, что поставленные цели поражены, с другой стороны реальный ущерб был минимален.

 

[Joe]

What prevented them from doing it right away?

nuclear annihilation maybe?

 

[youlik]

nuclear annihilation maybe?

Perhaps, although they are not Japanese and not in a broken state, and if taken seriously, they are more able to bomb Israel to the Stone Age than vice versa. Of course, it's hard to understand how they think.

Spoiler: Russian spelling

Возможно, хотя они и не японцы и не в разбитом состоянии и если подходить серьезно они более в состоянии разбомбить израиль в каменный век, чем наоборот. Конечно трудно понять как они думают.

 

[Joe]

A few interesting points from this article on Ynet by Ronen Bergman, one of Israel's best informed journalists, who quotes a source with knowledge of Israeli discussions on Iran

זה הזמן שנתניהו צריך באמת ללמוד מצ'רצ'יל איך להגיב

זו הפעם הראשונה שישראל מותקפת מצד מדינה ריבונית מאז מלחמת המפרץ ב־1991, אבל כאז כן עתה - יש גם סיבה לנשום עמוק, לשתות מים אם צריך, ולעצור לרגע. נתניהו צריך לאמץ את התפיסה הצ'רצ'יליאנית שלפיה גם בשעות הקשות ביותר חייבים לנהוג באחריות, בשיקול דעת - לא לשקוע לתהום צלמוות, או לנסוק לאופוריית מלחמה...

www.ynet.co.il

Meanwhile, that's not the wind there. A source very familiar with the marathon meetings that took place this week in a series of secret discussion rooms, above and below ground, says that "if they had filmed it and broadcast it on YouTube, today there would be four million people in Israel trying to find a way to escape from here."

Tonight, the Iranian response to the Israeli assassination of the senior general in Damascus was launched. And if Israel responds, it will respond to strategic targets in the heart of Tehran and perhaps in other cities. It's binary - zero or one. The war cabinet, and not only Netanyahu and Gallant, believed last night that if the attack is from Iranian territory, Israel must respond because, as one of the sources says, "It is impossible for Israel to attack a target in Syria, and Iran in response will attack from Iranian territory to Israeli territory, and Israel will not respond."

According to publications, Israel did not coordinate the assassination operation in Damascus with the United States. The IDF Operations Division informed them about the operation only at the same time as the bombs landed on the building. The Americans exploded with anger.

They are very worried and feel that Israel has led them into exactly the situation they were trying to avoid. On the one hand, they don't want to get involved in a war with Iran, which the United States, after responding with force to an attack on American targets and calming the unrest, thought it had succeeded in preventing. On the other hand - the Americans received clear signs that make them fear that an unequivocal non-mobilization on Israel's side will also be interpreted negatively in other countries such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Basically, the US was not informed in advance about the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus (because they would have said "no") and that attack was at least in part designed by Israel to provoke the Iranian response that would then force the US and "allies" to back up Israel.

That's how these things work behind the scenes. And yeah, if Israelis knew the truth of it they'd be heading for the airport and getting on one-way flights.

 

[youlik]

Basically, the US was not informed in advance about the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus (because they would have said "no") and that attack was at least in part designed by Israel to provoke the Iranian response that would then force the US and "allies" to back up Israel.

In my opinion, it looks pretty plausible. Iran's decorative response fits very neatly into such a picture, and if so, then once again the degree of adventurism is striking. A billion to the wind in one night and the result is zero. Americans are also handsome in this. The volumes are much larger there, but the timing is also longer.

Spoiler: Russian spelling

На мой взгляд выглядит довольно правдоподобно. В такую картину очень аккуратно вписывается декоративный ответ Ирана и если это так, то в очередной раз поразительна степень авантюризма. Миллиард на ветер за одну ночь и результата ноль. Американцы тоже красавцы в этом. Там объемы сильно больше, но и сроки подлиннее.

 

[Windmill knight]

The strikes, while symbolic and theatrical, were more of a 'win' for Iran and the Axis of Resistance than for Israel and the empire. The main thing the Iranians are happy with appears to be the precedent this sets for the next time(s) the Israelis strike/drone/assassinate anything Iranian, anywhere: rather than more words of condemnation, and maybe targeting of Israeli assets outside Israel (like they did in Erbil, northern Iraq, following the terrorist attack at Soleimani's commemoration in January), they'll just hit Israeli military infrastructure directly - in Israel.

That threshold has been crossed, and now this dynamic of strike and counter-strike could go on for years, as we've seen in the former Ukraine, but the $64,000 question is, will the Israeli regime eventually accept defeat and a 'new reality', as Kiev is surely destined to, or, 'on its way down', will it 'go Samson' on as much of the region (or even the world) as it can?

I was thinking the same thing. If things stay as they are and Israel doesn't escalate any longer (for now), then an important taboo has been broken, and that's that a nation-state can attack Israel directly and... nothing happens. We can understand that much of it was measured theatrics, but in the minds of the people of the Middle East and the world, and pehaps for some leaders observing from the sidelines, Iran crossed a red line that hadn't been crossed before and got away with it. The problem is still, as you say, what's Israel gonig to do about it. And knowing the pathological traits of its leaders, I wouldn't trust that they'll just sit and accept the current score.