Climate change circa 1974: Global Cooling.

Johnno

The Living Force
Quite a turnaround, apparently Newseek corrected their "error" 31 years later! Original article in pdf form is here:

http://denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf

And here's the article in text form

There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.

The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree – a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.

To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”

A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of half a degree in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.

To the layman, the relatively small changes in temperature and sunshine can be highly misleading. Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points out that the Earth’s average temperature during the great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower than during its warmest eras – and that the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age average. Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the “little ice age” conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 – years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York City.

Just what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery. “Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data,” concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. “Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions.”

Meteorologists think that they can forecast the short-term results of the return to the norm of the last century. They begin by noting the slight drop in overall temperature that produces large numbers of pressure centers in the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant air produced in this way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons and even local temperature increases – all of which have a direct impact on food supplies.

“The world’s food-producing system,” warns Dr. James D. McQuigg of NOAA’s Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment, “is much more sensitive to the weather variable than it was even five years ago.” Furthermore, the growth of world population and creation of new national boundaries make it impossible for starving peoples to migrate from their devastated fields, as they did during past famines.

Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.
 
Here is also a very nice article, basically stating the experts have it wrong, there is no global warming and the North Pole Ice cap is not melting, well nothing new anyway:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/07/03/goddard_polar_ice/
 
ianvr said:
Here is also a very nice article, basically stating the experts have it wrong, there is no global warming and the North Pole Ice cap is not melting, well nothing new anyway:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/07/03/goddard_polar_ice/
There are several problems with this article. Right off the bat, the author quotes NASA scientist Claire Parkinson, '"Dr Claire Parkinson at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center was quoted as saying: "The fact of having no ice at the pole is not so stunning."' But if you read the NYT article you get a different picture of what the scientists were saying. No ice at the North Pole is quite different from ice-free areas at the North Pole. The article continues:

''But the report said the ship encountered an unusual amount of open water all the way up. That is reason for concern.''

Dr. Parkinson said that her examination of satellite data since the 1970's revealed that the Arctic ice cover had been retreating on an average of one-quarter of a percent a year. But there are fluctuations up and down; the retreat was striking in the 1980's, then rebounded somewhat in the 90's. ''So we are very reluctant,'' she said, ''to make projections into the future'' based on only two or three decades of observations.

In a February report, Dr. Parkinson said, ''If trends toward shortened sea ice seasons and lesser sea ice coverage continue, this could entail major consequences to the polar and perhaps global climate, and to the lifestyles and survivability of selected Arctic plant and animal species.''
Then further on the author states:

Secondly, the likelihood of the North Pole being ice free this summer is actually quite slim. There are only a few weeks left where the sun is high enough to melt ice at the North Pole. The sun is less than 23 degrees above the horizon, and by mid-August will be less than 15 degrees above it. Temperatures in Greenland have been cold this summer, and winds are not favorable for a repeat. Currently, there is about one million km2 more ice than there was on this date last summer.
The fact that the sun is lower in the sky in August doesn't preclude more melting in August and September even. If you actually look at when the peak seasonal sea ice minimum is in the northern hemisphere it occurs in September due to thermal inertial. You can see it here. I could go on, but you probably get the picture. It's a shoddy piece of work.
 
there is also this:

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/161086-Arctic-Seabed-Alive-With-Volcano-Action

In a series of different expeditions on the Arctic Seafloor, there have been a number of volcano spots located that are actively spewing red-hot lava out of the seafloor. It has revealed itself as an explosive geographical location, with fountains of molten lava and gas that are springing out of different volcanoes under the sea near the North Pole.

The researchers that went in search of ocean floor conditions near the North Pole were surprised to discover the intensity and variety of volatile activity beneath the Arctic Ice. They returned from their exploration and journey to the North Pole with data and images showing off red hot locations where Magma and rocks rise from deep in the Earth's Core.
giving another possible source of polar heat which has nothing to do with the greenhouse effect.
 
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