PabloAngello

Jedi Master
Do you think we will have one of the biggest financial crisis since decades?

Interesting fresh news:


SPX (SP500) chart
Look how steep is recent rise (since March 2020)
1632957702915.png


Chinese Evergrande
1632957835549.png


GOLD (XAUUSD)
1632958014935.png





Clearly things speed up...
 

Alejo

Ambassador
Ambassador
FOTCM Member
I think we will have a form of economic collapse, however I also know that some of the talk about financial collapse in the US is due to their negotiating raising the debt ceiling once again. Usually when that happens, there's a lot of scare mongering around the media and in Washington.
 

cinnamon

Jedi
FOTCM Member
For crystal clarity, how are we defining a financial crisis here? A stock market crash? Bank failures? Mass bankruptcies?

Is there a reason for posting linear charts instead of log charts for compounding processes? You can make something look steep by presenting a chart that way - but presented with a log chart, one wouldn't immediately suggest that there's a "bubble":

1632966802097.png

What does the collapse of Evergrande or the price of gold have to do with a financial crisis? The CCP is partially bailing out Evergrande's Chinese creditors.

Two main market risks, IMO:
(Joe) There's a lot of articles in the past two weeks about rumors of food shortages this winter due to various reasons. It's not just high food prices, but food shortages. Lots of reasons are given: the Covid thing, destruction of business, fuel shortages, etc. Is that something that's likely to...?

A: Weather destruction of food sources has been covered up by fake news.

Q: (L) So it's worse than they let on?

A: Yes

Q: (Joe) They're just holding back a flood, ya know? But it's gonna reach a breaking point.

(L) So, it's time for the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse!

A: You can hear the hoof beats in the distance.
Trader not getting his bagel with lox and cream cheese for breakfast? Yeah, that's a panic sell scenario, also quite bullish for Ag, except oh wait, the PTB has decided to muck up supply chains, which inhibits agriculture actually getting done.
Q: (L) Close! Jesus... [laughter] Okay, questions?

(Joe) A year and a half ago, they gave a time frame of about 2 years for some kind of a REAL pandemic or viral outbreak. There's a lot of evidence that the mRNA vaccinations especially are actually suppressing people's immune systems. Is the C's time frame still correct? Those who are weakened would be very vulnerable to a real virus. Are we still on track maybe next spring for that kind of thing?

A: Close enough. Things are soon to get more dramatic. Be glad of the period of relatively controlled mayhem.
It would stand to reason that a market crash could be caused by the real pandemic, as mass mortality is profoundly economically deflationary.
 

United Gnosis

Jedi Council Member
It would stand to reason that a market crash could be caused by the real pandemic, as mass mortality is profoundly economically deflationary.
The elastic has been stretched 3 orders of magnitude beyond breaking point, the only reason it still barely holds is that economics is completely fake anyways. But supply chain logistics aren't, so the real constraints will keep poking at the dominos. It'll happen whenever they will it, or when it cannot be avoided.

Either way, I'm not sure a mass casualty event would be deflationary - in such past events say the black plague, it wasn't a huge expertise gap for the survivors to re-establish the previous civilizational level. This time the gap may not be so easy to cross for survivors. Sure, there will be tons of empty homes, but if factories can't run and replacement parts cannot be found and equipment depreciates in place and expertise is lost... From CPUs to food I don't see how that would be deflationary. In terms of land, maybe, but the rich and organized large-scale institutions will pick it all up. I don't think any of it bodes well.
 

PabloAngello

Jedi Master
What does the collapse of Evergrande or the price of gold have to do with a financial crisis? The CCP is partially bailing out Evergrande's Chinese creditors.
Signs of incoming problems, triggers. Gold also hardly fall during last crisis (see 2008 when gold fell from $1030 to $680).
Is there a reason for posting linear charts instead of log charts for compounding processes? You can make something look steep by presenting a chart that way - but presented with a log chart, one wouldn't immediately suggest that there's a "bubble":
Yes it is, linear charts are much more precise. It's pretty hard to "play" - "make a decision" based on log chart with high time frame candles. However they also can be helpful (supporting linear chart analysis) with long term predictions and it's good you mentioned that.
Even on log scale, SPX has pretty steep upmove since March 2020. Generally - steeper move equals higher probability of incoming crash - it can be verified on many other stocks/indexes.

Anyway, I rather created this thread to discuss current news and economic situation than to talk about technical analysis :D Chart are here to have an insight also on what traders/investors see these days.

Due to food shortages, yup I also mentioned that in the link under third chart in my first post (UK). They have enormous problems right now with fuel on gas-stations and food in markets. My wife has aunt in UK, she said that on their street other people steal fuel from parked cars, and if they can not open the car-tank 'gently' they destroy it and then stealing the gasoline. There is lots of cars completely without of fuel on the street. And this is just the beginning... What will happen if things become more serious?
 

seve

Jedi
In parallel with SOTT' s articles on the problems of supply of products from China, this morning I noticed a defect of some medicines in pharmacies in France. The beginning of a new terror applied as it should be?
 

Ellipse

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

PabloAngello

Jedi Master
The Bank of England’s deputy governor for financial stability, Jon Cunliffe, has warned that cryptocurrencies could spark a global financial crisis unless tough regulations are introduced.
 

dennis

Jedi Master
A high CARB diet clogs the ports-

The trucking issue with California LA ports, ie the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) and the Port of Long Beach (POLB), is that all semi tractors have to be current with new California emissions standards. As a consequence, that mean trucks cannot be older than 3 years if they are to pick up or deliver containers at those ports. This issue wipes out approximately half of the fleet trucks used to move containers in/out of the port. Operating the port 24/7 will not cure the issue, because all it does is pile up more containers that sit idle as they await a limited number of trucks to pick them up. THIS is the central issue.

On October 16, 2020, the EPA reached a settlement agreement [DATA HERE] with California Air Resource Board (CARB) to shut down semi tractor rigs that were non-compliant with new California emission standards:
 

Vinícius

The Force is Strong With This One
The elastic has been stretched 3 orders of magnitude beyond breaking point, the only reason it still barely holds is that economics is completely fake anyways. But supply chain logistics aren't, so the real constraints will keep poking at the dominos. It'll happen whenever they will it, or when it cannot be avoided.

Either way, I'm not sure a mass casualty event would be deflationary - in such past events say the black plague, it wasn't a huge expertise gap for the survivors to re-establish the previous civilizational level. This time the gap may not be so easy to cross for survivors. Sure, there will be tons of empty homes, but if factories can't run and replacement parts cannot be found and equipment depreciates in place and expertise is lost... From CPUs to food I don't see how that would be deflationary. In terms of land, maybe, but the rich and organized large-scale institutions will pick it all up. I don't think any of it bodes well.

good observations, I am not sure either
on the last part, the rich will hedge on cemetery lots you betcha..
 

cassandra

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

The Titanic is about to sink, but the guests on board are still quaffing champagne as they listen to the violins, admiring the snow on the deck.

We can draw a parallel between contemporary America and the Weimar Republic. Bitcoin has become an increasingly popular means of investment, as people are losing confidence in the dollar, and so rushing out to buy whatever they can with their money before these things become too expensive in the future. In the Weimar republic, workers were paid multiple times a day, because the currency was losing value so fast they needed to buy things while they still could. Some bankers during this time engaged in speculative attacks, as they could borrow from the central banks at relatively low rates and buy assets, becoming fabulously wealthy.

Similarly, Micheal Saylor, at MicroStrategy is borrowing money at almost nothing and buying every Bitcoin he can lay his hands on.

The most notorious engager of speculative attacks, George Soros, who became famous for breaking the Bank of England, by speculating against in, and earning a billion dollars in a day, is now buying Bitcoin through his fund. Is there a possibility that he will launch an attack against the dollar?

 
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