Financial decisions in the time of Economic Collapse

GqSoul

GqSoul

Jedi
There's a decision that has been exercising me of late as I try to synthesize the information and apparent reality of the rapidly declining/engineered free fall of the US economy. It seems everyone who is aware is considering related concerns, even if the individual decisions vary. Please help me expand my perspective here, as I can't trust my own analysis in my current state; my wife and I are grieving the loss of our baby boy at 5 mths of pregnancy. So we're breathing, mourning, and working to maintain psychological health while juggling the demands of life. It's a new challenge for us, but we've been blessed by the experience and we see that it is transforming us, providing an opportunity to grow and be more.

What's on my mind in general is how to best provide for my family and contribute to/facilitate FOTCM community establishment during this "contraction phase" of the Wave and all that entails.

This discussion presupposes an understanding of the open nature of the future, the converging probabilities as made evident by current events, and the uncertain nature of the expression of these realities given 3d/4d perception.

I'm in a position currently where I can either:
1). Leverage debt and invest in a business system that would allow me (if fruitful) to generate capital to fund daily life (I would be a proprietor), prepare for the future (buying useful items, tradeable commodities, gold, etc) and support community building efforts.
2). Forego the business angle, seek work in a trade field (carpentry, etc) use the income for the above goals and specifically leverage debt to purchase gold/silver and or donate to community for the same.
3). Any number of other options I haven't considered

I've vacillated between commitment to one or the other of the above scenarios and the variable that seems to be central to the issue is the "time frame". It seems obvious that things are steadily unfolding and that we're already "in deep," so I'm not waiting for some Signal Event. Having said that, it also seems that at some point, certain options no longer remain viable.

My concern with scenario 1 is that I'd risk the immediate use of funds, anywhere from 15k to 20k over a period of 4mths, for a potential net profit in the short-midterm, say 6mths. Because this business is tied to real estate, and necessarily with the banking and debt system, I'm wary of whether or not there is sufficient "time" to realize the profits before things go irremediably south. Meanwhile option 2 may not provide enough money to service daily life expenses and debt, and also depends on my securing aforementioned job. I'm hopeful that things will work out in the end, but I'd like to apply my faculties and tap into to the network to help make the best reasoned choice.

Thanks to any and all who have a perspective to add.
 
Hi GqSoul,

I'm sorry for your loss and I wish you strength and courage in that difficult situation.

Regarding the financial options, perhaps others can help you in more detail, but I'd like to give my perspective:

GqSoul said:
What's on my mind in general is how to best provide for my family and contribute to/facilitate FOTCM community establishment during this "contraction phase" of the Wave and all that entails.

This discussion presupposes an understanding of the open nature of the future, the converging probabilities as made evident by current events, and the uncertain nature of the expression of these realities given 3d/4d perception.

I'm in a position currently where I can either:
1). Leverage debt and invest in a business system that would allow me (if fruitful) to generate capital to fund daily life (I would be a proprietor), prepare for the future (buying useful items, tradeable commodities, gold, etc) and support community building efforts.
2). Forego the business angle, seek work in a trade field (carpentry, etc) use the income for the above goals and specifically leverage debt to purchase gold/silver and or donate to community for the same.
3). Any number of other options I haven't considered

I've vacillated between commitment to one or the other of the above scenarios and the variable that seems to be central to the issue is the "time frame". It seems obvious that things are steadily unfolding and that we're already "in deep," so I'm not waiting for some Signal Event. Having said that, it also seems that at some point, certain options no longer remain viable.

My concern with scenario 1 is that I'd risk the immediate use of funds, anywhere from 15k to 20k over a period of 4mths, for a potential net profit in the short-midterm, say 6mths. Because this business is tied to real estate, and necessarily with the banking and debt system, I'm wary of whether or not there is sufficient "time" to realize the profits before things go irremediably south. Meanwhile option 2 may not provide enough money to service daily life expenses and debt, and also depends on my securing aforementioned job. I'm hopeful that things will work out in the end, but I'd like to apply my faculties and tap into to the network to help make the best reasoned choice.

Thanks to any and all who have a perspective to add.
Click to expand...

My feeling is that you go about the problem in a very rational way. There's nothing wrong with that of course, but maybe you could explore your feelings as well a bit more - what do you / your family want, and how do you feel about the different scenarios? The way I see it, if I understand you correctly, both options have their pro's and con's, but would you like to learn a craft? How do you feel about the prospect of "downsizing"/seriously cutting your expenses as a new lifestyle? How do you feel about being a proprietor? Are you afraid of option 1 and/or option 2, and if so, why?

Generally speaking, I think preparation is not only about finances/commodities, the most important aspect is to become a better human being and thus to be able to react intelligently when faced with difficult and unknown situations. And skills are important too, plus by learning new skills/getting out of our comfort zone, I think we can learn a lot about ourselves as well and become more flexible in our thinking/behavior. But this doesn't necessarily mean one should give up a well-paid job, of course. We can also try things while we're still making up our mind. So one suggestion would be, if that's possible: Can you try something new and see for yourself how you feel about it? Let's say - how do you imagine your life as a proprietor? Do you want to engage in gardening/preparing in other ways (what?)? Can you visit someone in such a situation and spend some time there and see how something like this is organized? Or can you find a carpenter (or whatever you're interested in) and ask if you can watch for a day to get a feel for what this means? I don't know if that's true in your case, but I think oftentimes we kind of get ahead of ourselves while imagining different scenarios, and a "reality check" can do wonders.

The way I see it, the future is open, and while we can see general trends, it's difficult to plan everything in detail. For example, I think it's fair to say that the system we live in is doomed, but how will all this play out? Will there be a sudden collapse, or will it be painfully slow? Will everything change tomorrow, in a week, or in a year? It's difficult to know, but we can still prepare in every possible way, the most important being to work on ourselves, or so I think. Hang in there!
 
Hi GqSoul, I'm sorry to hear about the loss of your unborn baby and the pain it has caused both you and your wife. This must be a very difficult time for you both. At the same time, you seem to be looking at the situation at large realistically and this is certainly a good thing. The considerations you are making for the future in posting what you are, in the midst of your loss, suggest that you have a good grasp of some of what we're all facing in the coming months.

To try and answer your question, and since an economic collapse seems fairly imminent (though we can't say for sure when this will happen), I would say that trying to build a business with a large capital investment would not be the best course of action at this time. I imagine that societal breakdown will be accelerated and therefore a lot of what contributes to making a business successful may be difficult to achieve.

Going on what's been said in the Preparedness thread and other places, I think that your option 2. sounds like the best option. The gist being to divide your resources into attaining "needful things," some pm's (in smaller and large denominations), and even some cash. And certainly helping the network to help you, and others, in the ways that you can, would also seem to be part of the picture as you mention. That said, if you want to give some more details here about the business idea, maybe some additional feedback can be given.

About securing the aforementioned job (if that's the route you're choosing) when can you know, one way or another, if its a go and if the pay is what you need to get by? Are there other related jobs you can apply for?
 
If scenario 1 is tied to real estate, I wouldn't get involved. Any type of major natural disaster and/or economic disruption would immediately lead to a sharp drop in real estate values. The value of real estate today is based on the assumption that population numbers will remain high and that the bankers will keep lending us money. During the Black Death of the mid 14th century, property values plummeted as population dropped by at least 1/3 and marginal lands were abandoned because prime land was more affordable. Real estate values now are a classic asset bubble fueled by extremely low interest rates.

My condolences too, that must be rough.
 
My condolences to you and your wife.

I agree with Mr. Premise that the real estate business scenario sound quite risky and hard to predict because of the overall situation we're in/headed toward. And any business start up is also risky in this environment because it may take longer than expected to start cash flow etc., and then if the economic conditions continue to deteriorate, the whole thing can be at risk of failing. Good luck with everything.
 
I have no advice about your choices, although I think that what Ennio and Mr. Premise said are pretty spot-on. I just want to give you my condolences on your loss and a :hug: to you and your wife.
 
I don't have anything to add to the advice given by Ennio and Mr. Premise - it is sound advice considering the big picture. I wanted to offer my condolences to you and your wife, for the loss of your baby. :hug2: We're here if you need to talk about it.
 
My condolences to you and your wife Gqsoul. A horrible thing to go through, but it seems to have brought you closer.

I agree that real estate, unless something you will own outright for your own use, is a dicey investment. It depends on stability, and that is the last thing the world is for now. Getting yourself a good practical skill like carpentry makes the most sense, imo. Anyone with a trade skill like plumbing, small engine or car repair will be in great demand when the shtf. At the point, carpentry is a well-paid profession which should allow you to meet a lot of your preparation goals. Good luck with your decision.
 
Luc, thanks for your support and the insight you've offered. What you wrote below, exemplifies my current view on the situation:

luc said:
Generally speaking, I think preparation is not only about finances/commodities, the most important aspect is to become a better human being and thus to be able to react intelligently when faced with difficult and unknown situations. And skills are important too, plus by learning new skills/getting out of our comfort zone, I think we can learn a lot about ourselves as well and become more flexible in our thinking/behavior. But this doesn't necessarily mean one should give up a well-paid job, of course.
Click to expand...

Indeed, it describes my journey to this point; a constant exploration of what is possible, and a quest to learn and become more in preparation for what the future holds. That is particularly why I've framed the challenge presented in a very rational way, because I see an opportunity to expand my rational/logical approach by incorporating additional information from others who might be further along or better versed in these matters. I chose not to include many personal details, or the emotional process that surrounds these decisions primarily because I see the possibility of clouding the central issue and also in consideration of the group. Maybe it would be more helpful to know some of the personal background details, so I'll share it as economically as I can:

My driving aim to this point in life has been the growth towards "self-actualization" as I have come to understand it in the 4th way sense. In reviewing my path I can see the many "false personalities" at work, and the meandering turns, failures and successes that characterize our lives in general under their control. Over the past few years I've stepped away from a corporate life, as an HR Manager/Corporate Recruiter, to pursue something more creative. I've been a hobbyist carpenter for several years, developing the skills required and taking on projects for fun. Recently I started working professionally as an apprentice carpenter, but it is not full-time steady employment. The transitions in my career as noted above were fraught with missteps and missed opportunities as I continued to grow and mature. There are things that I would do differently/approach differently from where I am now as a person. That being said, the learning process has still been very fulfilling, but I am not naive to the threat from the General Law and my false personalities as I try to make decisions on how to best serve my family; there are lessons that are better learned through avoidance than through direct experience. An area of my experience that I'm now focusing on is the fulfilling of duties in the sense of the Obyvatel, the good steward so to say. Feedback from my life choices show me that this is an area that I need to give great attention to. As we were expecting a child recently, I began looking at other outlets to achieve financially what we felt as necessary. That's how I came to evaluate this business venture, which would put in place a marketing, sales, etc. structure to allow me to broker with families who are seeking to buy homes in a rent-to-own agreement. The profits I gained would be as a fee for that service. So I'm taking the decision before me intentionally out of the emotional realm, because I'm seeking to learn from and model what a truly "I"ntegrated person, guided by a singular "I"dentity would do in a similar situation, given the information that is available.

As to lifestyle questions, or how these choices fit into what I'm "passionate" about, I feel the decision would be best made without these things as the central factors. We live very modestly, and as things change, we might be living out of tents, under make shift shelters, or whatever, if we live at all. So I'm not really approaching this as a how to survive question, but more so as a question of how to best express my current understanding of the world around me and respond in the way that it demands. Either way I'll learn something.

Cheers!
 
Ennio said:
... I would say that trying to build a business with a large capital investment would not be the best course of action at this time. I imagine that societal breakdown will be accelerated and therefore a lot of what contributes to making a business successful may be difficult to achieve.

Going on what's been said in the Preparedness thread and other places, I think that your option 2. sounds like the best option. The gist being to divide your resources into attaining "needful things," some pm's (in smaller and large denominations), and even some cash. And certainly helping the network to help you, and others, in the ways that you can, would also seem to be part of the picture as you mention. That said, if you want to give some more details here about the business idea, maybe some additional feedback can be given.
Click to expand...

Ennio, your thoughts about building a business in these times reflect my own concerns. Part of the attraction of the opportunity I was evaluating was that I would be purchasing a turn key business, which mitigates some of the concern, but I kept thinking that it might be best to just take that money and put it towards something that I know will be a benefit to myself and the network. Part of my thought process was that I could make a quick turn around and "cash out" before the SHTF so to speak. I recognize this as a gamble with serious consequences and it gave me sufficient pause to gather better perspective.

Your thoughts on how to prepare as discussed in other threads are helpful, and I'd like to be in a position to offer help to others as we all face these momentous times. There is always some anxiety that comes when I think about the possibilities, but on the whole I'm actually really excited to be alive at this point in history, connected with an amazing network, and at the opportunity to fulfill part of our mission here in life!

Thanks for the support.
 
Mr. Premise said:
If scenario 1 is tied to real estate, I wouldn't get involved. Any type of major natural disaster and/or economic disruption would immediately lead to a sharp drop in real estate values. The value of real estate today is based on the assumption that population numbers will remain high and that the bankers will keep lending us money. During the Black Death of the mid 14th century, property values plummeted as population dropped by at least 1/3 and marginal lands were abandoned because prime land was more affordable. Real estate values now are a classic asset bubble fueled by extremely low interest rates.

My condolences too, that must be rough.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your well wishes and condolences. I initially committed to this turn key business which essentially brokers the acquisition of homes on a rent-to-own basis as I considered ways to provide for a growing family. As I contemplated the national and global scenario, I realized that my "logic" in making that decision must be compromised emotionally and realized I needed to reassess before getting in too deep. It wasn't lost in me that the homes that I would help put these people into would fall prey to the economic black hole that's rapidly swallowing up everything. This made me quite ambivalent as to the appropriateness of that choice, or whether the circumstances justified it...

Thanks again for your thoughts.
 
Menrva said:
I don't have anything to add to the advice given by Ennio and Mr. Premise - it is sound advice considering the big picture. I wanted to offer my condolences to you and your wife, for the loss of your baby. :hug2: We're here if you need to talk about it.
Click to expand...

My thoughts too. I'm sorry for you and your wife's loss. :hug: Good luck with your financial decisions.
 
Thanks for all your offer of support. It seems this, more than any advice, really is what I need. As with everything our choices are our own, and likewise the lessons occasioned by these choices are ours to discern and accept. The perspectives support/reaffirm that aspect of me that can see most objectively and I'll be keeping my eyes open as things unfold so that I can keep adjusting to a clearer view of things.

I do want to say that a loss of any kind is an inconceivable shock to one's being, and I know that without the resources that this network has provided and the growth it has allowed my wife and I to experience, that we could easily be dragged under. So I'd rather we all celebrate this beautiful gift and pass it along to all who need and ask. Thanks for giving!
 
Sounds like you are aware of the risks and are thinking about them seriously, GqSoul. As said, if you need to discuss further about what you and your wife are going through, we're always here. :)
 
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