Geopolitical Analysis: A Bird's-Eye View of the Global Situation

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It's sometimes difficult to tie certain topics to specific times and places, so we're opening this thread for members to 'connect the dots' between events by posting their own - or others' - speculations and analyses of current and possible future global developments and macro-trends.

Here's an example. I read this article recently and thought it was great. I'm pasting the whole article, but since it's long, I'm hiding each chapter except the 1st and last ones between Spoiler tags. The Author Seppo Niemi, Finland, is an independent political, economic and military analyst and his purpose of the Great Power Relations website is, in his own words, "to promote academic and scientific research and analysis in the field of international politics and great power relations as well as to increase the general understanding of the topic."

From Grand Finale of Ukraine war to Final Countdown of Humanity

May 28, 2024

Events and processes are moving in light speed today. Just a few weeks and days ago I was talking about the Grand Finale of SMO (Special Military Operation, as the Russians call it) in Ukraine war, as you can see on my website.

Now things are turning in more and more escalating mode so that the key players are stepping the ladders of escalation onto the final steps of total annihilation. Final Armageddon is facing the humanity. What has happened?

A lot of all kind of events around the world have taken place, all of them contributing heading in the same apocalyptic direction. The latest harbinger was the strike on the Russian strategic early warning radar, a couple days ago. Here below I have collected a bunch of relevant events for this purpose, particularly in the context of the great power relations. Let’s examine them, one by one.

Ominous events looming around the world

The US posture on “status quo” cases and reasons to change the rules

The status quo is the accepted political term for unresolved global crises, most of which date back to the WW2. Several status quo situations continue to prevail around the world: the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, Japan – Russia relations, China – the US relations and Western Sahara are just a few examples of these frozen or latent conflicts. Until recently, the NATO eastward expansion and Palestinian question also fell into this category. In essence, it means that there is a more or less tacit agreement between rival powers to keep the crises in question frozen.

To resolve these crises on stand-by, whose eruption is likely to jeopardize regional and even global security, China advocates recourse to international law, the fruit of historical realities and consensus, i.e. resolving the status quo by legal means.

The United States, on the other hand, seeks to short-circuit legal procedures, in order to unilaterally impose new geopolitical realities through the use of force. Thus, at the dawn of the 21st century, one of Washington’s objectives in its strategy to contain Beijing (and Moscow) is to replace status quo situations, which are characteristic of a certain balance of power, with de facto situations, which would be favorable to Washington.

This is precisely the situation prevailing today all-around Russia, China and particularly on the Korean peninsula, concretizing in military and political measures in Ukraine, Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

The key reason for this is the tact I have analyzed already a couple years ago, in my article of military power balance on this website.

The present posture of the US is such that its nuclear deterrence (nuclear triad) is in the accelerating “dilute spiral”. Particularly, silo-based, old Minuteman missiles (majority of them over 60 years old and based even older technology) are now in growing amount, becoming out-of-date and irreparable. Two more years and over 80% of them are fully useless and will not function any more. Majority of the rest of US functioning nuclear deterrence is based on the submarines (Virginia-class), which are also getting out of date and should be rapidly replaced by Columbia-class new attack submarines but this project is years behind the schedule. The same applies to air-launched missiles and out of dates carriers.

Therefore, the Biden administration and Pentagon realized that the window of potential power play is open only within next three years and try to maximize the military efforts to get sufficient large wars worldwide to change the balance position more favourable to the US. Russia and China have continuously and systematically developed their nuclear capability and nuclear triad.

The US is clearly raising the military stakes worldwide. Judging by its increasingly militarized hostility in the Asian region, the US is seeking to undermine the geostrategic interests of China and Russia by trying to impose a new balance of power, far removed from the status quo hitherto prevailing and from any prospect of conflict resolution.

The Korean peninsula is one hotspot. Washington is pursuing a strategy of escalation, which consists of fanning the flames of discord between the two Koreas, intensifying Pyongyang’s diplomatic isolation, and strengthening the US military presence in the East China Sea and Sea of Japan. The US has significantly intensified military support and cooperation with Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Australia, in AUKUS format.

Moreover, the US has abandoned, previously cautious and balanced approach in Europe and in the Middle East. Europe has eye-witnessed a rapid eastward expansion of NATO with open strategy to weaken Russia and finally disintegrate it. In the Middle East the US has nearly ruled out old allies and relations, like Saudi Arabia some other Arab monarchies and started nearly one-sided support of Israel.

This over-militarization of the US global approach, may turn itself in an uncomfortable position, seeing with its own eyes that its military might alone no longer allows the US to preside over the fate of the world as it sees fit. Moreover, in the current global context, where seismic upheavals are following one another, it is easy to see that setting the people’s future on a worn-out American hegemon is a really great risk.

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U.S. Favors More Escalation In Ukraine, Gaza

South Front May 24, 2024

Putin – Xi meeting in Beijing

I have studied this topic in my previous article here.

Restrictions against China, complementing the thousands of sanctions Washington and its allies have slapped on Russia over the past decade, threaten to put the last nail in the coffin of the grand strategy Washington has pursued in relation to both countries through much of the second half of the 20th century. The vision, laid out by foreign policy gurus Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski, centered around efforts to keep Russia and China divided to prevent them from combining their respective strengths to challenge American hegemony.

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“A grand coalition of China and Russia united not by ideology but by complementary grievances” would pose “the most dangerous scenario” as far as threats to US hegemony are concerned, Brzezinski wrote in his 1997 treatise ‘The Grand Chessboard’, echoing and building on work begun by Kissinger in the early 1970s to institute his famous ‘triangular diplomacy’ doctrine in relation toward Moscow and Beijing.

The latest meeting of Putin and Xi seems to prove and confirm that “the most dangerous scenario” (a la Brzezinski & Kissinger) has materialized in Beijing, on May 16-17, 2024.

China military drills around Taiwan

China launched a simulated blockade exercise “Joint Sword” around Taiwan: 49 PLA aircraft detected & 35 entered its ADIZ, the largest violation of 2024. Encircled by 19 PLAN warships & 16 Coast Guard vessels – Taiwan deployed HF-3 missiles. China began conducting its most expansive military drills engulfing Taiwan in over a year Thursday, as officials in Beijing warned Taiwanese independence supporters will “have their heads broken,” just days after the island’s new President Lai Ching-te sharply criticized Beijing in his inauguration speech.

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It appears that Putin’s visit to China was very successful in many ways and the joint statement of China and Russia surprised the Biden administration, especially Blinken, who just had warned China in Beijing not to develop relations with Russia a few weeks ago and he felt insulted.

Blinken decided to give China some further warning and suggested that president-elected Lai could make a tougher pro-independence speech in the “presidential inauguration”, which Lai did so. The United States actually had been suppressing Taiwan independence for past 2-3 years.

China’s tough response took Taiwan and Blinken by surprise. The large-scale military exercises have made everyone aware of China’s resolve to use force anytime. Taiwan felt afraid, humiliated and frustrated but can do nothing and Blinken also did not have enough leverage to follow up.

The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Friday, May 24, continued joint drills in the waters and airspace to the east of Taiwan island, according to Li Xi, spokesperson for the theater command.

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China’s military has initiated a series of military drills, codenamed “Joint Sword-2024A” around Taiwan.

China Warns US Over Taiwan Visits and One-China Policy, May 25.

In recent statements, China has issued a stern warning to the United States, urging an end to all visits to Taiwan and adherence to the One-China policy. Beijing’s stance comes amid growing tensions and increased military activity around the self-governing island.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, emphasized that any consequences arising from congressional visits to Taiwan will be borne by the United States. This follows a series of actions and statements from Beijing that reflect its long-standing claim over Taiwan and opposition to U.S. interactions with Taiwan authorities.

China’s warning is part of a broader pattern of responses to US actions concerning Taiwan. Previous interactions, such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan in 2022, have drawn similar rebukes from Beijing, indicating a consistent stance against perceived interference in its internal affairs.

The One-China policy, which the US acknowledges, states that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of China. However, the US maintains a “robust unofficial relationship” with Taiwan, including arms sales to support its defense capabilities, which has been a point of contention with China.

Russian nuclear drills

As a result of belligerent, hostile threats by France and the UK regarding deploying troops to Ukraine and beefing up Ukraine’s weapons supply with more sophisticated weapons, Russia launched a comprehensive diplomatic and military response three weeks ago. Foreign Minister Lavrov summoned the British and French Ambassadors to the Russian Foreign Ministry for a verbal dressing down. They were warned in stark terms that Russia would respond with all necessary force, if such actions occur. As Lavrov was delivering a diplomatic beatdown, President Putin announced that Russia would conduct a military exercise to test its ability to deploy and launch tactical nukes.

Russia starts nuclear exercises in response to bellicose statements from the West, May 21, 2024. Russia kicked off the first stage of nuclear exercises to test the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons in the Southern Military District. The exercises will be conducted with the participation of the Iskander missile system and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, the Russian Ministry of Defense (RMOD) said. The military practice training and combat tasks to receive special munitions for the Iskander operational-tactical missile system.

The aviation forces involved in the exercise practiced the delivery of nuclear warheads to air-launched missiles, including hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. They also carry out sorties to designated patrol areas.

According to RMOD, the exercises are conducted “to maintain the readiness of personnel and equipment of non-strategic nuclear weapons combat units” to defend Russia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty “in response to provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials.” The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia command the drills.

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Russia starts nuclear exercises , May 27.

The objectives of such an exercise with tactical nuclear warheads besides deterrence.

The first objective
is to test the readiness of the units and personnel who load the missiles and drive the launchers. These soldiers are not sitting around on their asses waiting for the red flare to go up. They have other duties they must perform every day. The first step in the exercise process after the national command authority has made the decision to mobilize and deploy the tactical nuclear force is the alert to the units. Once alerted, they have to ensure they have access to the nuclear tipped missiles, that those missiles are loaded into the launchers, that the launchers are in good operating condition and that the vehicles can be started.

The next phase of the exercise is the deployment of the various units to designated firing points. This means the launch vehicles are loaded and the crews jump on and then drive to the place where they are to set up and prepare for launch.

Then comes the moment of truth — either the order to launch is given or they are told to stand down and return to base. The reason the Russians are doing this is to evaluate whether or not they are ready to carry out such a mission. And therein lies the other purpose of the exercise — put the West on notice that Russia is dead-serious about using a tactical nuke if the West decides to enter the conflict.

How might Russia use a tactical nuke? Russia has several other options before it must consider the use of tactical nukes. They can intensify targeting of bases and assembly points where Western forces are operating, by intensifying use of hypersonic missiles, glide bombs, electronic warfare equipment (EW), take out the Starlink-satellite that is enabling Ukrainian battlefield communications. They can impose a no-fly zone over the Black Sea for Western ISR platforms and then destroy any assets that dare venture into the forbidden area.

More information about this available in Danny Davis’ recent video interview with MIT professor Ted Postol below. Ted discusses the difference between the tactical and the strategic warheads and use of different warheads on different targets.

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A Very ‘Limited’ Nuclear Attack? MIT Professor Ted Postol explains

Daniel Davis / Deep Dive, May 25, 2024

NATO’s growing involvement in Ukraine war is the key reason

Russian state television has officially announced that, if NATO troops move into Ukraine, they will use nuclear weapons and bomb their headquarters. This was announced by Dimitry Kiselev, who was appointed directly by President Putin to lead the state media group and its branches.

Why such a statement and at this time? Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that part of the French army arrived in Odessa along with the US Army’s 101st Division from Romania. The French also appeared in Slavyansk, and the Russians eliminated them within 48 hours. Polish, Romanian and other NATO units were neutralized by Russian missiles recently, in a hotel in Dnipropetrovsk.

There are supposedly a large number of French in Ukraine. The French government sends them there as mercenaries and promises them a lot of money for participating in the war. Such soldiers are given fake discharge papers from the army along with the promise that on their return they can rejoin their original posts and the position they held when they left. Many have already died.

Many NATO soldiers also died every time the Russians took out a Ukrainian anti-aircraft system. Due to their complexity, these defense systems could not be operated by Ukrainians, so the West delivered them along with the experts who operate them. This was revealed by the magazine ‘Foreign Affairs’ (Foreign Affairs), which is published by the globalist organization, ‘Council on Foreign Relations, or CFR). According to them, the loss of human life suffered by NATO in Ukraine is much, much higher than officially reported.

They also wrote that NATO troops have been in Ukraine for a long time, “from instructors to front-line soldiers and they are units from America, Britain, France, Germany and Poland”. The NATO military is also largely responsible for these acts of terrorism, the attacks on Russian territory. For example, one of the attacks on the Russian city of Belgorod, which was repulsed by Russian troops, was filmed. The video proved that what were thought to be Ukrainians were actually American soldiers. American helicopters were also used in Belgorod.

Moscow has been publicly condemning the use of Western weapons for attacks on Russian civilization for a long time but the West, especially the United States, does not even notice their protests. There are many NATO members participating in these illegal attacks on the Russian civilian population and their numbers are still growing. NATO itself is grossly violating its own regulations and directives.

According to the latest speculations (Der Spiegel May 26): If Russia achieves a strategic breakthrough in the east of Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland will put “boots on the ground” in Ukraine. Poland will not allow Kyiv to fall. This means that Poland will enter Ukraine, if the Ukrainian defense line falls. Not only Poland will act but obviously several European countries will send ground troops to Ukraine. It is likely that there are already troops in place in western Ukraine. It is not something that is written about in the media, but if Ukraine loses ground to Russia, several countries will be able to act quickly, if they are already in place in the region. France is one of the countries that will act forcefully.

Western supported strikes on Russian early warning system, a turning point to sudden death?

Satellite imagery confirms a Russian strategic early warning radar site in the southwestern end of the country was substantially damaged in a reported Ukrainian drone attack earlier this week. This looks to be a first-of-its-kind attack on a site linked to Russia’s general strategic defense. As such, it points to a new and worrisome dimension to the conflict, especially when it comes to the potential use of nuclear weapons.

A satellite image taken on May 23 that The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs of the Armavir Radar Station in Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar Krai shows significant debris around one of the site’s two Voronezh-DM radar buildings. These are ultra-high-frequency (UHF) over-the-horizon (OTH) radars that are part of Russia’s nuclear ballistic missile early warning system.

There is also clear evidence of multiple hits on the radar buildings. It is worth noting that radar arrays are generally very sensitive and fragile systems and even relatively limited damage can result in a “mission kill,” rendering them inoperable for an extended period of time.

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Regardless of Armavir’s direct relevance to the conflict in Ukraine or the exact intended goals of the attack on the site, it has much broader ramifications. The two Voronezh-DMs at the facility are a key part of Russia’s larger strategic early warning network and their loss, even temporarily, could only degrade the country’s ability to detect incoming nuclear threats. There are also concerns about how this could impact the ability of Russia’s overall strategic warning network to evaluate potential threats and eliminate false positives due to possible loss of overlapping coverage in certain areas.

Beyond that, it has been pointed out that the attack on Armavir could meet the conditions the Russian government laid out publicly in 2020 for actions that could trigger a nuclear retaliatory strike. Russia’s early warning network is part of the country’s broader nuclear deterrent posture.

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“The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by the Russian Federation” include any “attack by an adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions,” according to the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence the Kremlin put out two years ago.

All of this follows the start of tactical nuclear drills by Russian forces in the country’s Southern Military District, which borders Ukraine, on Tuesday. The Russian Ministry of Defense had first announced the drills were coming earlier this month and said they were “in response to provocative statements and threats by certain Western officials against the Russian Federation.”

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Strikes On Russia’s Strategic Defense Objects Will Only Intensify | Military Summary For 2024.05.25

Russian senator Dmitry Rogozin accused the United States of involvement in the drone strike on the strategic early warning radar station in Armavir. “Washington will have to answer in full! Of course we could theoretically with low probability imagine, that it to be a fake by the Ukrainian Army on its own initiative. However, given Washington’s deep involvement in this armed conflict, the version that the United States does not know about Ukrainian plans to attack Russia’s missile defense system can be discarded. We are not only standing on the threshold but already on the edge, beyond which the collapse of the strategic security of nuclear powers will begin.” The station in Armavir is part of Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces, an attack on which, according to the military doctrine of the Russian Federation, is a reason for Moscow to use nuclear weapons.

Military expert Alexander Zimovsky: I’m embarrassed to ask – does the strike on the Voronezh-DM radar fall under Putin’s Decree No. 355 of June 2, 2020 on the use of nuclear weapons? There, the basis for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons is: “The enemy’s impact on critical military or government facilities of the Russian Federation, the failure of which will lead to the disruption of the response actions of nuclear forces.” The Voronezh-DM radar precisely ensured the response of our nuclear forces – it detected ballistic missiles on flight trajectories within 6000 kilometers. Apparently, it doesn’t detect any more. I think NATO did that to lure Russia into using a tactical nuke… those desperate assholes in the West have only stupid escalations left – after they lost the war in Ukraine.”

Latest satellite images tell that there have been more than one AFU/NATO strike on the Russian strategic radar system but so far, the damages have been relative unimportant. However, the insane UK government tries provoke Russia to start a nuclear war!!! Unbelievable impudence.

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This process is dangerously alarming to the humanity, please read this tweet of today: “Ukrainians have now attacked a second critical Russian nuclear strategic early warning radar at Orsk.”

“Peace” conference in Switzerland, going to be more or less a farce

The US President Joe Biden is not going to attend the “peace conference” in Switzerland. On June 15, Biden is having a fund-raising event for his campaign in California (with the participation of Hollywood star Julia Roberts). Obviously, the company of the pretty woman is a lot better than that of the expired president of Ukraine. US Vice President Kamala Harris is not attending the “peace summit” either.

Ukraine will drag out the begging process until the presidential election in the United States. The head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, is well aware that the White House will not be able to refuse to support the Kyiv regime during the election campaign in the US. This is like a death sentence for the “expired president.” Kyiv is not going to fulfill Antony Blinken’s conditions; all negotiations will break down through escalation at the front. The fact is obvious: the White House administration is turning a blind eye on the event in Switzerland signaling others of its detachment from the summit.

It appears that Zelensky’s peace formula is fading into oblivion and there is no other strategy in sight. The leaders of other countries also plan to skip the summit. Western publications say Olaf Scholz, Justin Trudeau and, possibly, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are expected to arrive. The international boycott of the Swiss summit indicates Washington’s pessimism about it. In all likelihood, they realized that Zelensky would not start the peace process.

Western media claim that Moscow is pushing the countries of the Global South to stay away from the summit: Kremlin officials apparently called the leaders of dozens of countries and encouraged them not to attend the summit in Switzerland. China refused to participate and Russia, as a key participant of the crisis, was not even invited to the conference.

Putin- Lukashenko meeting

May 25, Vladimir Putin, accompanied by the newly appointed Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, made a short visit in Belarus.

Some interesting, important and intriguing signals can be found. First, Putin confirmed his openness to negotiations. Secondly, he clarified that there is no one to sign documents from Ukraine yet – Zelensky’s legitimacy has expired. But the most unexpected thing was the appearance of the plane of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in Minsk. Experts put together all the facts and published their analysis on social networks.

In connection with exercises with non-strategic nuclear weapons, the head of Belarus noted that one must be prepared for anything. Vladimir Putin noted that Russia regularly conducts nuclear deterrence exercises. Now some non-strategic nuclear weapons are stationed in Belarus and it is participating in them. We ensure the security of Belarus as well as the security of Russia.

In response to a question about the negotiations and the legitimacy of Zelensky, Vladimir Putin said that Russia did not refuse negotiations. With whom to negotiate is not an idle question. The legitimacy of the current president has ended, so the purpose of the conference in Switzerland is to reaffirm his legitimacy. But these PR moves have nothing to do with legal documents. We need to figure out who to deal with and you can only deal with legitimate authorities. Lukashenko agreed with Putin.

In Ukraine, two options for the consequences of Putin’s visit to Minsk are being discussed: 1. The use of tactical nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus. 2. Attack on Ukraine from the north. The third option might be such that the Lithuanian Parliament has begun discussing the possibility of sending Lithuanian troops to Ukraine. Now Lithuania may decide to send troops to Ukraine to test the Russian reaction. If those reactions are mild, similar decisions may be made by the Scandinavian countries and France.

Middle East: Israel-Hamas war in Gaza

A concept “The Day After” for diplomats and policymakers, dealing with Israel-Hamas crisis, the phrase has only one meaning and that is what happens ‘the day after’ the fighting stops in Gaza. Given the intensity of the conflict and the absence of hope, such thinking might seem surprising, even wishful. Yet there is an increasing focus on what could and should happen, if and when the guns fall silent in Gaza.

EU foreign ministers will discuss exactly this in Brussels on Monday when they hold talks with counterparts from Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with the secretary-general of the Arab League. Across the Middle East and among Western countries, conversations are taking place and plans are being drawn up. Many are aware the window of opportunity before the US election in November is closing.

I have analyzed this topic many times, the latest one “Variety of wars in the Middle East”, April 12.

Middle East: Raisi’s death by helicopter crash in Iran

On May 19, during a helicopter crash, the President of Iran, Ayatollah Raisi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir Abdollahiyan, the governor of East Azerbaijan province, Malek Rahmati, the Friday imam of Tabriz, Mohammad Ali Ale Hashem, the head of the presidential protection unit, the Ansar al–Mahdi Corps unit, Sardar Seyed Mehdi Mousavi and all the pilots were killed.

The tragedy happened after Ibrahim Raisi’s visit to the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, where the parties commissioned two hydroelectric power plants for the joint use of water and energy resources of the Aras River. The positive outcome of the late Iranian President’s visit to Baku was made possible thanks to the great desire of the parties to interact with each other and the successful diplomacy of Turkey and China.

In total, there were three helicopters (two Russian Mi-8 and one American Bell) coming back to Iran, from which two helicopters have arrived safely in Iran. Speculation of an assassination attempt on the Iranian president has centred around the unusual arrival of a US Air Force C-130 aircraft in Azerbaijan that closely coincided with Raisi’s departure, with sources positing that electronic warfare could have been used to force his helicopter into a crash. With the president having been flown in an American Bell 212, which Iran acquired in significant numbers in the 1970s, the Pentagon’s high familiarity with the aircraft and its avionics was highlighted in these speculative assessments. According to the Sirius Report, May 25, there are a number of conspiracy theories regarding Raisi’s helicopter crash.

The American newspaper – The New York Times notes that “The accident occurred at a delicate moment for international relations — just a couple of days after senior Iranian and American officials held talks through intermediaries in an attempt to reduce the threat of an expansion of the conflict in the Middle East. These talks were the first contact between Tehran and Washington after Iran attacked Israeli military facilities with drones in April.”

The incident left Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as acting president, which represents the second most senior political office in the country below the position of Supreme Leader held by Ali Khamenei since 1989.

Grand Finale in Ukraine: the peak is at hand

Military situation is getting very critical from the Ukrainian (AFU) point of view, Russian Forces (RuAF) are advancing on all frontlines and the losses of AFU are getting so massive that “the peak is at hand”. Daily troops losses of AFU are amounting up to over 1500 per day, about 10,000 per a week, which losses are completely unsustainable.

I am going to update later again a new article regarding “Grand Finale” in Ukraine. Here I refer to my previous article “Grand Finale closing the climax in Ukraine”, May 15 as well as “Scenarios for the outcome of Ukraine crisis 2024-2025”, April 1, 2024. Those scenarios are still valid.

Epilogue – THINK IF YOU CAN


An Irish journalist, Chay Bowes, who is very hardworking twitter-writer, has encapsulated the surreal situation in which we find ourselves today into a single concept.

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Western insane political “leaders” are leading Europe into nuclear Armageddon without realizing what they are doing and 90% of European citizens are like braindead lambs going into slaughterhouse without realizing anything.
 
It's sometimes difficult to tie certain topics to specific times and places, so we're opening this thread for members to 'connect the dots' between events by posting their own - or others' - speculations and analyses of current and possible future global developments and macro-trends.

Here's an example. I read this article recently and thought it was great. I'm pasting the whole article, but since it's long, I'm hiding each chapter except the 1st and last ones between Spoiler tags. The Author Seppo Niemi, Finland, is an independent political, economic and military analyst and his purpose of the Great Power Relations website is, in his own words, "to promote academic and scientific research and analysis in the field of international politics and great power relations as well as to increase the general understanding of the topic."

From Grand Finale of Ukraine war to Final Countdown of Humanity

maybe the lambs are more clever then their unelected leaders? they know they will eventually be slaughtered whatever they might do? so, enjoy the sunshine as long as it will last...
 
The slant of these types of articles that fret over the course of events is interesting. It’s ok to wring your hands but it stops short of reaching the obvious conclusions and questions. Those being: have we learned nothing from the past 100 years? this is insanity that has to be stopped and, oh by the way, who the hell is behind this push and shouldn’t they be locked up?

The unspoken off limits boundaries lest you get a knock on the door at 3am.
 
The slant of these types of articles that fret over the course of events is interesting. It’s ok to wring your hands but it stops short of reaching the obvious conclusions and questions. Those being: have we learned nothing from the past 100 years? this is insanity that has to be stopped and, oh by the way, who the hell is behind this push and shouldn’t they be locked up?
I think you're misaddressing your criticism. Niemi is an analyst, not a politician. As for those 100 years, some have learn, some haven't. Here is one example of a politician and state leader who has, and against all odds, puts the lesson into action. There are some more like him, but you (general "you") won't hear much about them if you don't know where to search, often facing the language barrier. So such politicians need others who would made their positions known. Like Robert Fico, for example. How many Westerners knew his name before the recent assassination attempt?

Sunday afternoon (May 26), Hungarian YT channel Patrióta published an interview with Viktor Orbán (in Hungarian). It was BIG and meaningful. Skipping his warm words about Fico and parts that concern strictly domestic issues, here is what he said.

Magyar Nemzet , May 27

PM Orban: War Mustn't Be Allowed to Spread, It Must Be Stopped and All Armed Conflicts Must Be Declared a Failure!

The more stable the Hungarian government and the clearer the Hungarian people's position, the better the chances that Hungary will stay out of the war, Prime Minister Viktor Orban emphasized on the popular Patriota YouTube channel on Sunday evening. ...

On the subject of a possible nuclear war, PM Orban emphasized that

European politicians view the atomic bomb as a tactical deterrent, not as something that should actually be used. However, things they don't even consider at the onset of a war could still happen in the end, as usually the worst-case scenarios are realized.

Phrases such as "NATO mission in Ukraine," which raises the hairs on the back of one's neck, as well as terms such as "tactical nuclear weapon" or "world war," or the idea of sending troops on behalf of a defense alliance like NATO to a war that takes place outside the territory of the alliance, are slowly becoming commonplace. This is scary, but we're starting to get used to it. Having read some diaries penned before the previous world wars, PM Orban underlined that even back then, political leaders promised a swift end, and not one of them ever promised a world war.

We, Hungarians, are closer to the reality of war

Hungary was on the losing side in the world wars, so our reflexes are different," PM Orban said, adding that "we are closer to the reality of war, which is a terrible thing. There, hands, legs, and heads go missing, women are left widowed, children are orphaned, and this is what's happening in Ukraine: there is such a loss of manpower that they may not even be able to recover, just as our country is still suffering from the losses of the First World War.

The horrors of bomb craters in Budapest and the bombed-out capital immediately spring to mind, but in the West these alarming personal experiences are not so automatic," PM Orban explained.

In ten years' time, people may evaluate the currently unfolding events as the precursor to a Third World War. We cannot rule out that, if things go awry and we cannot restrain the current war psychosis in Brussels, then the history of these years will also go down as a prelude, an episode belonging to the first years of a great world war,

People also paying for this war in the shops. PM Orban underlined that Europe is already suffering terrible losses, with hundreds of billions of euros in economic damage. People are also paying for the war when they go to the shops, because peacetime prices are not usually like this. In a climate of war, credit interest rates go up, energy prices go up, transport costs go up, entrepreneurs become cautious because they must halt their developments, and everyone pays the price. Even Hungary is financing the war, even though it is doing its best to stay out of it, PM Orban said, arguing that he strongly disliked all this right from the start.

According to calculations, the number of victims now hovers half a million to 1 million people, with only two Slavic countries currently at war.

Europe is drifting into a war without even having any estimates about the costs and means that are necessary to achieve its military objectives. I have never seen anything more irresponsible in my life.

The idea of a Europe-wide conscription, put forward by EPP politician Manfred Weber, is enough to make your blood boil, Mr Orban said.
From Brussels or Germany, Hungarian families would be told to enlist their sons in a European army with compulsory conscription and where to go.

We do not want someone else to decide on the whereabouts or deployment of our young soldiers. We must relinquish the idea of a pan-European army with compulsory conscription, this is a crazy thought," Viktor Orban said. Hungary must stay out of the war, as the country was forced into the last two, he added. Now, it is proving extremely difficult to stay out of it, he said, noting how he feels the hand that are pushing our country into war.

The big question going forward if how to stay out of an actual NATO-led mission to Ukraine

Mr Orban continued by stating that NATO will face an even more difficult dilemma because it is a military defense organization and wants to go down the path of becoming a player in this war itself. There are limited chances to stop NATO from doing this because they don't want to be persuaded, he said. How to stay out of an actual NATO-led mission in Ukraine is still a matter for the future.

A few more quotes from various sources:

the idea of returning universal military conscription to EU is insane

"when European politicians talk about nuclear weapons, they think of them as a tactical deterrent with a much weaker range than those used in World War II, which they do not want to use."

"We are in a process which in ten years’ time may be said to be a forerunner or the beginning of a third world war.

He gave the example of the Balkan war and the two world wars, where “we did not know at the beginning that the incidents that triggered them would lead to a war with millions of victims.”

On the cost of the war, Orbán pointed out that European countries had already paid EUR 100 billion into this war, as had the United States. He said that people do not know it, but they are already paying for the war, as the war is responsible for inflation.

"It is possible to argue about war in Hungary, but not in Western Europe.”

This is the worst European Commission I have ever seen. The commission has turned into a war council, the European Parliament is slowly [becoming] a war body, while people are moving towards peace.” He concluded: “They have not delivered on any of their serious commitments. So why should they be kept?”

Minister Gergely Gulyás, Head of the Prime Minister’s Office, press conference, May 23:

Responding to a question, the Minister summarized what there is to know about the Hungarian EU Presidency, which starts in July.

"There will be four priority areas: security and defense policy, improving competitiveness, reforming agricultural policy, and tackling demographic isues."

He added that the Article 7 procedure is only a question of political will, as the procedure against Poland was terminated without any action being taken, but only a change in the political perception of the country in the EU. “Anyone who thinks that law matters more in the EU than in the Soviet Union is mistaken. The procedure is not important, some people are having fun with it. And it has nothing to do with resources, EU money keeps coming in,” he stressed.

Now, this is not related to the interview, but it shows how serious Orban is about finding a way to implement some kind of an opt-out status of Hungary's membership in NATO.

The Last Refuge
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban Seeks Exit from NATO Conflict with Russia
May 25

The position of Hungary in the Ukraine vs Russia conflict has been consistently pragmatic. Ukraine is NOT a NATO country, and when the USA essentially demanded that all NATO member states join in a unified mission against Russia, to promote the specific interests of the United States, it never made sense.

Hungary has maintained a consistent position that NATO is a defensive partnership that should not seek conflict and war outside its member state boundaries. However, the USA has previously used its leadership role in NATO to pressure member states to join in conflict outside the NATO boundaries, ie. Iraq and Libya.

In the modern era (since Obama), the former left-wing peacenik movement has reversed position and are now the leading advocates for global war. Democrats, leftists, globalists and various trade union organizations, who have supported the merge of government with corporations, now advocate for all positions that advance war and general international conflict. As a consequence, NATO is now an offensive weapon; that’s the contextual background.

The USA has created a proxy state with exploitation and control over Ukraine. Russia has responded to the USA control over Ukraine by force. The USA now wants to create war with Russia using NATO as the offensive weapon. Hungary does not want to participate in this NATO offensive position. This puts Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on the outside of the NATO alliance group and a direct target of the USA.

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) Hungary will seek to opt out of any NATO operations aimed at supporting Ukraine, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Friday, suggesting that the military alliance and the European Union were moving toward a more direct conflict with Russia.

Orbán told state radio that Hungary opposes a plan NATO is weighing to provide more predictable military support to Ukraine in coming years to repel Moscow’s full-scale invasion, as better armed Russian troops assert control on the battlefield.

We do not approve of this, nor do we want to participate in financial or arms support (for Ukraine), even within the framework of NATO,” Orbán said, adding that Hungary has taken a position as a “nonparticipant” in any potential NATO operations to assist Kyiv.

“We’ve got to redefine our position within the military alliance, and our lawyers and officers are working on … how Hungary can exist as a NATO member while not participating in NATO actions outside of its territory,” he said. (read more)


[...]

(Via Politico) – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Friday his country was looking to redefine its membership in NATO to ensure the country cannot be involved in operations outside of the military alliance’s territory.

Now a new term has been invented to describe the Hungarian position in NATO, it is called non-participation. We are not a participant now,” Orbán said in an interview with Kossuth Radio, according to a report by Hungarian news portal Telex.

“There is the term opt-out … If we were opt-outs, our participation in NATO’s military structure, our position, would change,” Orbán was quoted as saying.

The Hungarian leader said lawyers are working on how Hungary can exist as a member of NATO and not participate in the alliance’s action outside NATO territory, according to the report.

“There’s no question of NATO getting involved in wars outside its territory, with non-NATO countries,” Orbán was quoted as saying. (more)


[...]

As Mateusz Piskorski pointed out (video, in Polish) an opt-out, or non-participation status is not unheard of. At the time of establishing the organisation, three founding countries managed to negotiate it: Iceland, Norway and Denmark. They did not agree for foreign military bases and nuclear weapons on their territory, and presence of other NATO member states' troops was possible only by a special permission issued each time. And there was a special status for France in the years 1996-2009.

Then, there was an interview by Kossuth Radio and Orban's speech at the Peace March (up to 100 000 people) recently. A few more quotes, sources and links underneath.

"We face a huge task, like we’ve never faced before. We must prevent Europe from entering a war, which would lead it to its own demise ... and the Hungarian government knows how to do that."

Mentioning the West’s military plans, which include sending troops to Ukraine and delivery of even greater amount of weapons, Orban said that "Europe is preparing for war, and, every day, it passes a new landmark on its way to hell."

According to the prime minister, "Europe, rushes towards a war, to its demise, in a train without brakes and a mad engineer," and this must be stopped.


"We will try to stop this train during the European Parliament elections [on June 6-9]. We must press the emergency brake to at least let those who so desire could get off this train and stay away from the war"

Being drawn into war does not happen in one step, the PM stressed, listing the three phases of the process: talk, preparation and destruction. We are now beyond the talking stage and in the preparation stage, mere inches away from destruction.

“What is happening today in Brussels and Washington… looks like warming up for a possible direct military conflict. We can safely call it the preparation of Europe’s entry into the war,” Orban said, adding that there are working groups within NATO that are assessing the best ways for the bloc to further boost its participation in the conflict.
He warned that the end result of these actions could be a direct conflict between the EU, NATO, and Russia – a “grim prospect,” as the conflict would involve nuclear powers.

Our mission is to stay out of the war ... Do we want to shed Hungarian blood for Ukraine? No! We will not go to war, we will not die for somebody else on foreign soil. ... Either we win or they win. There is no third way, only a third world war

Viktor Orban made a very disturbing statement: "I think what is happening in Brussels and Washington today, but rather in Brussels than in Washington, is a kind of preparation of the mood for a possible direct conflict." Preparations are underway for Europe's entry into the war, he said, and statements by politicians and publications in the media prove this.

... Orban, who warned that "now working groups at NATO headquarters in Brussels are studying how the alliance can take part in the conflict in Ukraine"...

Who's lying? NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, who in early May claimed that NATO was not going to send troops to Ukraine (although with the caveat that "Kiev did not ask for this either"), or Orban, who warned that "now working groups at NATO headquarters in Brussels are studying how the alliance can take part in the conflict in Ukraine"?

Hungary wants to prevent Europe from entering war with Russia - TASS
Orban: ‘NATO is Now Preparing for War With Russia’ - 21st Century Wire
PM Orban: It Is Unacceptable for Others to Decide over Hungarians' Blood - Magyar Nemzet
PM Orban: Preparations Under Way in Brussels to Take Europe to War - Magyar Nemzet
Viktor Orban warned Russia: NATO is preparing to directly enter the conflict in Ukraine - Pravda-EN
PM Orbán: "We do not want to shed blood for Ukraine" - Daily News Hungary

All European countries, their politicians and citizens should hear it. And act.
 
I don't mean to criticize the author - that is an excellent overview of the events and pieces on the chessboard at the moment, and from a strictly 3D sort of perspective, it is spot on. In response, any real human should be thinking/feeling - God No - WW3 (or any major expanded global hot conflict), are you kidding me?! (I'm with heinrich in that respect)

So, What I mean to say is that no amount of strictly 3D geo-political analysis is going to reflect the greater hyper-dimensional context: A context which is the real driving force underlying (or overlaying) all those pieces on the chessboard. The levers are being pulled by the Wizard. So, viewing the stupid, ill-considered actions of the US Government (and the responses of the other actors) in a vacuum without the greater context draws one down into to ever more 3D thinking. I think that is my actual critique. The events happening are the shadows on the cave walls.

That said, yes, I think the 3D actions can impact the 4D context (that is the cosmic/human connection of the other thread) even if they are done without total or accurate awareness of the greater hyper-dimensional context. So there is some hope.

Frogs, awaken, and rise up! The Chefs are readying their forks! These are some devils in the details as I see them.
 
So, What I mean to say is that no amount of strictly 3D geo-political analysis is going to reflect the greater hyper-dimensional context
This is where I am at currently as well.

The geo-political aspect is important to pay attention to, but going back in my own current life span over the past few decades, only watching the geo-politics is like watching the same christmas story every christmas season. And along that analogy, as many times as we watch it we never really think about the gaffers, the directors, the editors, the producers, the financiers, the supply chain participants, their bosses, etc. We just react to what is displayed on the screen. While we progress in life our reactions change, good guys become the bad guys, bad guys one year make more sense in the subsequent years as we bear more scars of scaping by in our own 'televised' show. Who is watching our own personal movie as we watch others theatrics?

Dot connecting is why we are here, but unlike just about anywhere else on the public Internet, we connect cosmic machines older than time influencing our actions, we try to guess what it may be like on the other side of the 3D curtain, why our forebearers said/did/didn't do, how our organisms function, what manipulates that same organism and how we can become optimal machines.

The effort to map across all of these things is exhausting and most tend to dive into the rabbit hole with such velocity we can become stuck and only know that hole and if you're blessed, maybe a few adjacent holes.

The description of Jesus by the C's when it was first published (forget the year, a long time ago) as replicated infinitely for each one of us and then some. I find that I use that concept often as to humble and pace myself in appreciating how complex this life we all have, experiencing what we all do in having families, being a functional member of society and somehow finding a way to keep the lights on.

So not limiting to only connecting the dots of surface level only geo-politics, yes that I do concur BHelmet!

I tend to think that by the time we read 'experts' outputs in type form, it is so far past from anything close to real time that I pessimistically wonder, are we only trying to see the pattern on someone's shirt by only seeing their shadow.

Ideally the dots can connect back to our own lives, and we get a real feeling/sensation that we are all indeed connected to each other, forward and backward in time. I wish I was clever enough to isolate the scene, but in the beginning of Remarkable Men where young George asks his father where did the winner of the competition learn how to bounce his vibrations off of the walls of the valley, and the father traces it back to God.

I feel like we all here are trying to figure out where did this all come from, multi-dimensional and all.. ;)
 
So, What I mean to say is that no amount of strictly 3D geo-political analysis is going to reflect the greater hyper-dimensional context: A context which is the real driving force underlying (or overlaying) all those pieces on the chessboard
Tend to think the same way. And at the same time, I respect the wishes of the hosts, who probably tend to focus the forum's attention on the 3dsts right and left realm for educational purposes, so to speak. So this note does not have the intent of flame. I grew up and worked pretty much only abroad, compared to my homeland. I am a child of migrants. "Luxury" migrants but migrants. And over time I have developed an anthropological attitude, towards other cultures, which tends to anthropologically include myself (very difficult operation, as a Westerner I am affected by arrogance and at the same time I am at home everywhere). In any case I speak 4 languages, read and understand 5, and am able to interface basically with anyone and not only from the point of view of language, which is not exactly the quintessence of communication (long exhausting training). Example. As I've mentioned elsewhere in this forum, I have an “unhealthy” :-)fascination with Chinese culture, both traditional and contemporary. And I regard TV series as remarkable geopolitical insights (pop culture also manipulated, as in the West). Recently I abused one in particular, on criminal investigation. Basic, the Chinese still have a kind of widespread secular spirituality, and widespread ancestor worship. They talk to the dead in cemeteries. They drink with the dead in cemeteries, eat with the dead in cemeteries. They have altars at home where they practice auspicious offerings. Criminals too (who are ALWAYS Chinese, Westerners at most are militia mercenaries). Well. in this series the criminal family in question that dominates the entire city has a "hall of ancestors" (in the shape of an umbrella) that is made up not of blood ties, but of politicians, police financial elites, and corrupt political commissars. A pulley descends from the giant umbrella (real art installation) with the photo of the corrupt in charge. Everyone has his or her own cell phone, as many as the cards in a poker deck. The grand old criminal explains to the young grand old criminal that as long as THEY are okay, WE are okay. In the TV series, the Chinese also have a remarkable understanding of the psycho-sociological aspects of crime, a freakish penchant for South American dramas, and an incredible coolness, coupled with a very didactic confidence in the law that punishes in any case. I join this reflection to the obviously instrumental rebuke from the US about China's overcapacity . But at the same time, we know very well that the 4d does not consume nor possess. And at the same time we attack the grand old man of the wef and his pathetic acolytes on the obviously instrumental message "of you'll possess nothing and be happy". In fact oppoosing it. Sorry fork the noise :-).
 
We live in a 3D world. An STS 3D world. It's a grim fact, and so 3D geo-political analysis has got to have its place. But awareness of 4D is a hell of an advantage, but it's not going to help you survive when all hell is breaking loose in your neck of the woods. Unfortunately, I speak from personal experience.

New Caledonia is a French Overseas Territory in the South Pacific, one of the world's great nickel reserves. However, the indigenous Kanaks have been seeking Independence from the French State almost since colonisation. The last great violent uprising, the civil war in the mid 1980s, was concluded with an agreement on a 30-year road map to self-determination, which culminated in 3 referenda on independence which took place in 2018, 2020 and 2021. The French loyalist vote triumphed in each case, though the third referendum remains contested by the pro-independence parties who called for their supporters to boycott the vote. To cut a very long story short, in November 2023, one of the radical pro-independence parties created a separate structure, the Cell for Coordination of Field Action (le CCAT, in French) to contest, in a more muscular way, the proposed opening of the electorate to long-term New Caledonian residents, which would bring an end to the pro-independence parties' dream of gaining independence through democratic process.

The vote on the electoral reform was passed in the French Senate, and then in the National Assembly (13th May, the beginning of the riots), and thus only needs to be passed in the Congress of Versailles (the Senate and the National Assembly, the French Parliament, in a joint vote) to become law. However, on the night of the vote in the National Assembly, riots broke out in the industrial and working-class districts of the capital city, Nouméa, and the three surrounding communes. The rioters were thousands of young Kanaks, between 15-25 years old, plied with alcohol, cannabis and amphetamines by the CCAT, and told to destroy everything! And they did. Basically, in a three-night blitzkrieg (though the we're still in a state of unrest three weeks later) they destroyed over 500 companies (factories, shops, warehouses, car showrooms), caused upwards of €1bn of damage, razed countless houses, burnt who-knows-how-many cars, and caused the loss of approximately 5,000 jobs and temporary unemployment for 15,000 more. And the worst was avoided! Only rapid intervention from the elite military police units prevented the rioters taking control of the airport (key for military reinforcements from France) and the port (key for food supply lines), and also prevented them from blowing up Nouméa's petrol and gas reserves and cutting the water supply. Let that sink in.

Whole districts and major roads were sealed off with roadblocks by the rioters, to the extent that the southern districts of Nouméa were blocked off from the rest of New Caledonia for nearly two weeks and no food could be delivered to the remaining supermarkets, and the rioters became the law in their own mini-fiefdoms. Access to the hospitals were blocked, and numerous schools have been burnt down or even used as observation posts for snipers who have tried to shoot down French military aircraft. The French military and police have been targeted by the rioters, with over 150 wounded and 1 death so far. Though there have been 'only' 7 deaths directly resulting from violence, many old and sick people, and even babies, have died from not being able to get the medical help they require.

This is where it gets interesting and particularly relevant to this thread. The meticulous organisation of the riots, the guerrilla warfare strategies, the methodical manipulation of the international and national press to present the extreme violence as a justified protest for freedom from colonisation, a vicious smear campaign against the French loyalists, and the saturation of the social media networks show this is not simply civil unrest, but a coup d'état supported by a foreign state. Caches of foreign weapons have been found, and at the beginning of the riots, a massive cyber-attack from overseas tried to take down New Caledonia's internet. Azerbaijan remains the prime suspect, the same country whose Parliament, incidentally, signed a Memorandum of Cooperation in April with the radical pro-independence President of New Caledonia's Congress.

You may recall that Azerbaijan doesn't appreciate Macron meddling in its war against Armenia, and Azerbaijan has close ties with Russia, which doesn't appreciate Macron's tub-thumping support for Ukraine and the French soldiers on Ukrainian soil.

The Élysée Palace gave local politicians a month to find a political solution to the situation (!), but order has not been fully restored despite the presence of 3500 military/police personnel, and the CCAT have continued to issue ultimatums to Macron to withdraw the electoral reform under the threat of upping the ante to take down the institutions (Congress, Government, Town Halls, Provincial Councils).

Unless Macron pulls a rabbit out of a hat, he has two basic options: give in to the the CCAT's demands and risk an equally violent response from the exhausted and scared French loyalists, or use military force to restore Republican law and order. In any case, the economy is wrecked, the social fabric of the country has been torn apart and a mass exodus is on the cards, as soon as flights start up again.

Oh, and I haven't even mentioned the catastrophe of the three nickel factories and the looming shadow of China.

If we join the dots, we might see this as merely the hors d'oeuvre for 4D STS!
Have a great day!
 
It's possible that the PTB are planning for Europe to take over the role that Ukraine has been playing the last couple of years as they seek to continue the conflict with Russia on the Western front while trying to open other fronts further East.

As Ukraine is running out of manpower to operate NATO equipment, they need fresh men to keep this conflict going. We are aware that they have been sending soldiers but they have until now kept it mostly under the rug from the public as the numbers could be hidden. What I'm seeing now especially ahead of the European elections is politicians coming out and prepping the population with the message that we must prepare for war with Russia.

They are gradually introducing the idea that having EU troops on the ground is acceptable and necessary for the "defense" of Europe as they start enrolling more men in the army and attempt to re-introduce conscription. They could eventually even try to somewhat appease conservatives by allowing young male migrants to enter or stay in the EU at the condition of joining the army.

I am not talking about a big event that would change the course of things but rather a slow and painful continuation of the conflict for longer as they seek to further their agenda of control and keep milking this very profitable cash cow. None of this might happen, and there might be enough push back from the population against the respective governments, but I wouldn't be surprised if we're heading towards such as scenario.
 
The Armavir radar station in Krasnodar region
-- looks just like the famous Ghost of Kiev mass media BS

BTW: This is how such a real strategic anti-missile defense system looks like! YT of course removed the video, so here it is in Russian.

Amazing what kind of tricks are used in the world of geopolitics nowadays:

Nothing can be found!
1. Just a probably doctored 3 second video.
2. A pathetic Ukrainan drone crashed on tarmac trying to attack another such Russian anti-nuke radar station
3. No civilian photos or videos of the Armavir radar building well visible to The People = on flatlands!!
4. No official confirmation, just Western children's tales in MSM

96 hours in:
No evidence still of the Armavir Strategic Defense Anti-Ballistic radar station damage. Clearly USA must see on their Five Eyes, that there was no damage. Russian higher echelon knows there was no damage. But MSM already spread the lie and it appears Lavrov and others are using this excellent opportunity - as an exercise for a real attack - to warn their Western "colleagues".
As per radar in Armavir--120 hours passed by, any new "photos", and I mean real ones, not photoshopped? I am still waiting. I am just saying (not one way or another)--it is so easy to make photo from within the flat circle with the radius of 20 kilometers: 3.14 x 20^2 = 3.14 x 400 = 1, 256 square kilometers.
Upper quote: this in a city of 209 thousand people. In cities of much lesser populations several laypeople habitually post building damages, when Ukrainians hit them.

Conscious citizens - sensitive to state secrets - would NOT post an Armavir damage on social media. But laypeople do.. The entire Krasnodar region is a flatland, providing perfect visibility for civilians to observe the Armavir anti-nuclear station. No one posted any civilian photos past 96 hours of the alleged hit.. There is only a photo of a crashed drone smashed into pieces on the asphalt..

Rogozin:
Rogozin, a senator who previously headed up the Russian space agency Roscosmos and is now in charge of a military technical center called Tsar’s Wolves, said that the apparent attack targeted a nuclear early warning system in the southern Krasnodar Region.

Russian MOD official statement:
.. not a peep..
The Russian Defense Ministry has yet to comment on the matter, while the extent of the damage remains unclear.
I found it strange, how the heck is a supremely important anti-nuke radar station is just sitting there happily in total ignorance, thumbs twiddling - without any air defenses..
Then a stray Ukrainian-NATO strike hits it (according to propaganda).. and everybody suddenly goes:
- Oh, no! What have you done??!
In Russia, in a land famously known for its lethal air defenses, best in the world! Sure! Ghost of Kiev was personally in the air taking photos of this amazing Armavir strike! Russia now considering full surrender..

Next time the MSM will post angry toddlers beating mixed martial artists on TV. WTH?!
 
Last edited:
'Nothing can be found!

Alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian nuclear radars unnerving US – WaPo

-
The US should be seen as directly responsible for a presumed Ukrainian strike on a key element of Russia’s nuclear umbrella, Senator Dmitry Rogozin has said
-
Ukrainian sources claimed last week that Kiev had delivered a strike at a Voronezh-DM site in Russia’s southern Krasnodar Region, near the city of Armavir. The alleged operation is significant..:
The expert suggested that the alleged attack may have been a US-sanctioned response to Moscow’s reminders that it
Are key geopolitical players, experts playing an IQ test, a game of awareness with us?
Are they reminding us that this is the time for The Critically Thinking Mind?
 
Russia can also spread dots on the world map, where the US will have to pay special attention to. CIA will have a lot more work to do now. Probably they won't have as many energy to start wars in EU now as they did during the Kosovo days.

According to recent years of Russian tradition, now continuing:
So, Putin stated that Russia will supply weapons to West's enemies. In the end, two can play the game. So, what can those enemies possibly be. As you might expect, Houthis may get, "suddenly", anti-shipping missiles which will be suspiciously similar to such systems as P-800 Onyx. Or "freedom fighters" elsewhere, including Europe?
Moscow's reaction to the possible sending of NATO instructors to Ukraine and the use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory:
“Therefore, we have no illusions about this,” Putin said. Russia will respond by improving its air defense system and will consider the possibility of supplying its weapons to those regions where strikes can be carried out on sensitive targets of states that provide missiles to Ukraine. “This is the path to very serious problems,” the president warned.
Source article.

As we all know the Lizzies' tight control over this planetary slave colony of theirs, nukes won't be allowed. Accidents of trigger-happy nuke-owners won't happen either as The Matrix ensures, I think, there are no human-slave caused accidents, when profit from 'Lizzie Big Food' is involved.

Therefore, I think, there is a future route of "nobody moves" military geo-political Status Quo through more livable timelines:

1. Everybody will have weapons of deterrence

2. Nobody will be able to move, because of restricted military supply problems of NATO/US. Just like how the mighty Western Armada regularly must retreat from the 'Houthi Front' "to re-supply" = with what exactly? New missiles? Into the foreseeable future? With what money? What factory? From what supply warehouse? So the Houthis keep West in check regards their war economy = resupply capability

3. West won't be able to start a war on impotent Arabs running around in sandals in the desert anymore. China reasserted its Taiwan interests. Also they want global peace and global business.

4. There will be no proxy wars without stable re-supply routes.

5. This will herald the Age of Technical Accidents for Western Re-supply Ships', just like CIA Black Sea drones are now suddenly developing "technical difficulties". They won't be able to mark new missile targets for Ukraine to strike anymore. No bullets means no war for Western Proxy Fronts.

While this state of Nervous Global Readiness holds, while Western initiated hysteria of waving around of weapons and empty nuke warnings from politicians continues, Nature will intervene with catastrophes.

Compound catastrophes will gradually destroy Western military potential as the War Oligarch will have their hands full with The People demanding aid everywhere, refugees and cries to convert war ships into aid carrying vessels. Migrations. Supermarket shelves empty. Warehouses running low.

West has difficulties filling positions in their war factories even now! They desperately raised old experts to come back to old factories and produce cannon shells and re-invigorate old missiles even now. How will they find those old engineers in the future from a decimated future population base?

Garland gives an excellent summary of above:

The West will be shown their Work Mirror by Objective Reality. Will the West be able to take the Mirror Shock? Then Primary Reality (c) Laura will intervene in form of comets, climate, catastrophes.
Oligarchs plan to command 'the cannon fodder masses' from their bunkers?

Our focus here will shift to Safe Transition, I think.
Regroup in 5th Density, while protecting still transitioning members from 3D Earth, welcoming them as they arrive to 5thD.
Then build power base in 4th Density. That's where our future lies.
Not on a destroyed 3rd Density Earth:
A: Reincarnation on a 3rd density earth as a "cave person" amidst rubble and a glowing red sky, as the perpetual cold wind whistles...
 
Alex Christoforou on the upcoming French elections:


Snap elections, France:Macron lost interest in governing France and dealing with domestic issues many years ago. He has three more years as president and, as such, runs foreign policy in France. This will not change with snap elections.

Macron can now offload domestic "headaches" to a majority Le Pen parliament. Let her deal with the wants and needs of French citizens. If Le Pen runs France well, then she wins presidency in 3 years. If not, then she loses and gets all the blame. Either way, Macron is not running again for president. His term ends. He is Audi 5000. Calling snap elections, not about France. It's all about Macron and his massive Jupiter ego. He is setting himself up for bigger globalist ambitions, without the distractions and pitfalls of governing France.

A majority Le Pen parliament could be a significant achievement. At the very least, if that happens, it may mean an improvement in the lives of French citizens. I know that since the conservative Danielle Smith was elected in the province of Alberta in Canada, things seem to have improved quite a lot.

Meanwhile, there's no stopping a war in Europe, according to Vucic.

“We are heading for a major catastrophe and it seems that the train has already left the station and can no longer be stopped. No one in the West is talking about peace anymore - only more war. The West thinks it can win and take out Russia. I think the West is wrong. Both sides now believe it is existential for them, so I don't think they will find a solution other than war and everything, everything is at stake. In Europe, the leaders act as the big heroes, but they are not honest and do not tell their citizens that they will all pay a big price if it comes to war.”

So even though reasonable people are pushing back and making gains, like in Ireland against Sinn Fein, against Macron in France, the AfD against Scholz in Germany, as well as populists 'at the heels' of Tusk in Poland (etc., etc.) there seems to be a geopolitical force - a 'large animal' as Gurdjieff might say - dragging them along to war against Russia.

I don't know how seriously to take all of this war talk. I have a hard time picturing it happening, but then again, WW1 is said to have started in a similar way, as a certain something dragged countries into conflict, apparently against their better interests, and few of the leaders wanting to choose war, but doing so because they felt they had to.
 
In my opinion, the following note is a quite high-flying-bird's view. I think the Charlton's unique way with names should be easy to understand. If it isn't, try the hyperlinked words; or try them even if it is, a lot of good stuff there of which the text below is a summary of his current understanding. Formatting, original.


Things are Much worse than military analysts assume; because the Western strategists want to Lose, not win (and maximize destruction while doing so)

Bruce Charlton
Sunday 2 June 2024

While the cultivated ignorance and delusional nature of mainstream Western officials and media are predictable appalling; the supposedly alternative analyses of the West versus Fire Nation war is more deeply concerning to me.

The military experts and analysts persist in regarding this as a modern version of the kind of wars throughout history; whereas this is a situation the world has never before experienced.

Because the leadership of the Western (i.e. globalist) world (and I mean the real leadership, those who set the Western strategy) are qualitatively different in their motivations from any group of leaders in world history.


The military expert analysts assume that the West ultimately wants the West to win this war - which is Not True.

Those who are strategically responsible for the FN war, its continuation and escalation towards totality; primarily want the West to lose.


That is their core motivation. "They" mainly want the West to be destroyed * - and the FN war is one of several, simultaneously pursued, means to that end.

Destruction of the Fire Nation, Earth Nation and other places are also real motivators - but secondary, optional.

(Other means to the end of Western destruction include other wars; but also the many long-term self-destructive strategies I call Litmus Tests: e.g. the birdemic-peck, the climate agenda, the sexual revolution, the "antiracism" agenda - and the whole raft of leftist political auto-lethalities.)

On the other side; the core and strategic motivation of the Fire Nation is easily understandable (for normal people!), conventional, and historically multi-precedented - the FN mainly wants Not to lose. Wants to preserve and strengthen its culture and people.

So the FN War is grossly asymmetrical in terms of motivations; in a way never before seen - at least never on a sustained and global scale.

Indeed, the FN conflict may not even qualify as a "war" in the conventional sense; because The goal of the Western leadership is an orgy of insane multi-national mutual- and self- destruction - which is not really "a war"...

But that is precisely what the Western leadership strategists are working towards...

And for as long as so many people are so utterly unaware of the fact; for so long as they continue to think of this as "just-another war", like so many wars before: for so long They will continue to progress incrementally towards their major goal of destructive chaos primarily affecting the West.

Note added: An overall interpretative perspective on the nature of the FN war (and the world generally) does not derive from evidence, and cannot therefore be overturned by observations - it is a matter of assumptions not empirical data. (Because assumptions both select and interpret the data.) Nonetheless, the immediate action of the Western side in coercively-imposing self-destructive sanctions, and the way that the West has continued to increase these in the face of massive evidence of their self-destructive nature; plus the self-destructive act of the West destroying a major conduit for Western energy supply - could certainly be taken as consistent-with the assumption that the war is primarily aimed against the West.
 
As regarding the curent geopolitical situation. If I may, i'd like to share a speculation here, that is, all this hype around an eventual military conflict between Nato and Russia, in the open so to say, first it's just a fear mongering tactic to keep the people on the edge, aka in a transmarginal inhibition state and second, which is the most important, it's a smokescreen for something else.

Most probably the next plandemic, I mean it worked so well the first time that the PTB may be convinced that this is the way to go if they want to speed up their plans, whatever those are. Most of them i think still have a longing nostalgy of the Covid times, those were good times, for them that is. There are some signs that made me take this train of thought, like the media especially in the last few months talking about the H1N2 virus, preparing the ground for the Disease X in the people's minds.

Another sign it could be the snap elections in France and Great Britain and the recent European parlamentary elections.

We'll wait and see, anyways just a thought.
 
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