how good is the data? : NASA map downplays sharp rise in meteor fireballs story

anartist

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
I read the NASA bollide story, then went to the link provided to the NASA site.
Hey, guess what, NASA does seem to provide the background data at
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/
Your point on NASA putting their interpretation front and centre is still valid, but it seems that they also provide background data.
I entered the data into a spreadsheet, and charted it and it is quite interesting, a sample:
total bollide events by decade
1900 58
1910 62
1920 74
1930 86
1940 110
1950 140
1960 173
1970 205
1980 315
1990 67,826
2000 137,945
2010 to present(16Nov14) 1,763,347
I am no expert, someone may want to check the data out to confirm, but the increase is pretty dramatic!
according to Near Earth Objects only, by decade
1900 28
1910 30
1920 34
1930 38
1940 44
1950 53
1960 60
1970 68
1980 95
1990 18,876
2000 408,031
2010-present 543,864

it is entirely possible that I have missed something here, but it appears that no matter which way you look at it, there has been and continues to be a dramatic increase in space events.
 

Attachments

  • NASA_bollides.gif
    NASA_bollides.gif
    8.7 KB · Views: 107
These data list NEO discoveries, and they are very sensitive to instrumentation. With time, instruments are better, which drives more discoveries, until the instrument reaches its limit and another instrument starts discovering objects that weren't seen before.
The chart here shows this effect:
site_all.png

An influx of new asteroids into the system on the other hand would appear as comets, active or inactive and the statistics are not very clear there so far.
 
mkrnhr said:
These data list NEO discoveries, and they are very sensitive to instrumentation. With time, instruments are better, which drives more discoveries, until the instrument reaches its limit and another instrument starts discovering objects that weren't seen before.
The chart here shows this effect:
site_all.png

An influx of new asteroids into the system on the other hand would appear as comets, active or inactive and the statistics are not very clear there so far.

While the "better instrument" angle is often brought forward in order to explain the rather apparent increase of fireballs away, it is pretty clear, as SOTT pointed out here and Pierre Lescaudron in his new book here, that there is most likely indeed a rather exponential increase in fireball activity above our heads.
 
Yes, the increase can be seen in the rate of fireballs (meteors, not asteroids), which is different from the above. It cannot be deduced from these data (asteroids previously unknown, most of which on stable orbits). Separating different causes of a certain trend in a data set is tricky and by far the most difficult task in data analysis.
 
Alien Fireballs - Full Documentary (HD)
Published on Mar 16, 2018

https://youtu.be/Km2Z0JBpxwM
Snip: As of April 2016, there were about 1,140 witnessed falls that have specimens in the world's collections. As of 2011, there are more than 38,660 well-documented meteorite finds.

Definitely an obvious uptick .............. :whistle:

Fireball Events Stats
1986-05-01 to April 1, 2018 = All
https://www.amsmeteors.org/members/imo_fireball_stats#reports
 

Attachments

  • AMS.png
    AMS.png
    30.7 KB · Views: 37
Unfortunately unavailable. Maybe there is another source?
 
Back
Top Bottom