How To Avoid Financial Devastation During Coming Depression

JGeropoulas

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
I want to encourage people to check out the books Aftershock (2011) and Aftershock Investor's Guide (2012) by Robert Wiedemer, M.B.A. and David Wiedemer, Ph.D. These brothers were two of the few who predicted in 2006 (when things were booming post-9/11) that the stock market would crash and the real estate market would collapse in 2008 (as they did).

David is a leading expert on macro-evolutionary economic analysis (e.g. politics, technological developments, natural disasters, etc.). His work in information dynamics, technological evolutions and economic history form the basis for their books. David's computer algorithms seek to detect evolutionary transition points of economies vs. the repetition of historical market cycles.

These guys are hard-core realists who are systematic thinkers and able to explain things in simple terms. They will not soothe you, but they will guide you. They are quick to warn that Aftershock is not a book that's reassuring, complex, academic or supports the status quo.

In other words, they seem to be the "catastophists" in the "uniformitarian" world of economists But they speak from a calm position of "knowlege is power," not fear-mongering to sell something (they already manage over $200 million of private investment funds). The primary impetus of their work is to empower people to not only survive, but even position themselves to thrive despite the upheaval ahead.

For example, they warn people to avoid 2 types of financial advisers:
The Comforters, who say, “The economy may struggle, but will bounce back, just like always.”
The Cheerleaders who say, “The economy will continue growing, just like always.”

They also explain several important psychological factors which will prevent most people from taking steps to avoid financial disaster. The most important one is called “Normalcy Bias,” meaning few people can wrap their mind around the possibility of something happening which they’ve never experienced during “normal” times.

Their core premise is that the U.S. economy is composed of 7 artificially-inflated "bubbles" which began to pop in 2008 and will continue in a sequence now that cannot be halted. Using math and simple logic, they explain our economy is locked in this inescapable sequence that will result in a crash psychologically more devastating than the Great Depression, and which will ripple around the globe.

As can be seen, I highly recommend their books, which address broader topics than just investing (e.g. which jobs will be most secure). There are links at the very end for video summaries of their ideas as well as a simple way to obtain a free copy, as I did.

This is the sequence in which these bubbles of the U.S. economy will "pop"

1 – Real Estate Market
2 – Discretionary Luxuries
3 – Bond Market
4 – Stock Market
5 – Foreign Investment
6 – Consumer Debt
7 - Government Debt

Here's my summary of their advice and estimated time-frame from their latest book, but please read it for yourself before making any decisions!.

SHORT-TERM FUTURE (2012-2013)

Portfolio Recommendations:
1) Gold
2) High-Dividend Stocks
3) Shorter-Term Treasuries
4) TIPS
5) Foreign Currencies
6) Commodities
7) Short Stock ETF’s
8) Short Bond ETF’s

Stocks will be fairly stable (with occasional 100 – 200 point drops in a day) as long as:
1) the Fed is able to continue printing money without significant inflation
2) the government can continue massive borrowing

General Stock Recommendations:
1) buy high-dividend stocks (e.g. electric utilities, healthcare)
2) monitor inflation (_bls.gov or _shadowstats.com)
3) consider LEAP’s or Inverse Index ETF’s
4) monitor cues shifting to Medium Term phase

Bonds will be fairly stable as long as:
1) the U.S. looks like a safer haven than Europe
2) the Fed is able to continue printing money to keep interest rates low, which is likely in this phase.

General Bond Recommendations:
1) buy a diversification of government-backed, lowest-risk, short-term bonds (mortgage-backed securities, short-term Treasury Notes, T-bills, TIPS)
2) monitor interest rates
3) exit bonds sooner rather than later (see Table 5.2 on page 146 regarding exit timing for various type bonds)
4) monitor cues shifting to Medium Term phase

Gold prices will
1) remain volatile
2) likely be manipulated
3) increase no more than 10%

General Gold Recommendations:
1) physical gold is preferable to certificates for gold deposits
2) monitor cues shifting to Medium Term phase

MEDIUM-TERM FUTURE (estimated for 2014-2015)

Portfolio Recommendations:
1) To be determined (Monitor Aftershock Newsletter and Monthly Alerts for revised recommendations for this phase. You may review back issues and listen to audio forum discussions here:_http://www.aftershockpublishing.com/admin/code/adminpages/AdminPage_MemberInfo.aspx#ITEM-Newsletter)

Stocks will begin crashing once:
1) inflation rate climbs to 5%-10% (and the usual 2-year lag behind QE’s shrinks to just weeks)
2) interest rates rise
3) QE4 has little affect on the market
4) bankruptcies begin increasing
5) lending rates begin dropping

Bond demand will increase at first due to stocks dropping, then:
1) decline due to interest rates climbing
2) those with weaker issuers/higher interest rates will fail first

Gold prices will rise as:
1) inflation and interest rates rise
2) stocks, bonds, real estate values drop

AFTERSHOCK PHASE (Estimated to begin 2014-2016)

Events like these could accelerate the time-frame
1) European debt crisis issues
2) economic downturn in China
3) U.S/Israeli attack on Iran

Stocks should be sold before:
1) foreign investors begin exiting
2) remaining bubbles start popping

Bonds should be sold before:
1) bond companies begin liquidating, which floods the market and devalues bond prices
2) U.S. government becomes unable to borrow additional funds, so ceases protecting it’s credit rating and defaults on most of it’s bonds
3) the final bubble of government debt pops

Gold prices will shoot up due to (see the 7 factors listed on pages 199-200)

Portfolio Recommendations:
1) To be determined (Monitor Aftershock Newsletter and Monthly Alerts for revised recommendations for this phase. You may review back issues and listen to audio forum discussions here:_http://www.aftershockpublishing.com/admin/code/adminpages/AdminPage_MemberInfo.aspx#ITEM-Newsletter)

RELATED RESOURCES

John Williams holds an M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named the Edward Tuck Scholar. Soon thereafter, he launched a successful 30-year career as a consulting economist to Fortune 500 companies. In recent years, John created this site to inform the public about government economic propaganda.
_ShadowStats.com

HYPERINFLATION 2012 – SPECIAL COMMENTARY (January, 2012) by John Williams, M.B.A.
_http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-special-report-2012

Catherine Austin Fitts comments on Fed’s qualitative easing strategy
_http://solari.com/articles/quantitative_easing/

Power-point presentation by an ex-pat Russian economist explaining the challenges Americans will face compared with the Russians during the collapse of the Soviet Union – very informative and thought-provoking from someone who’s been through this experience first-hand in memorable history.
_http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259

Global-systemic-crisis-October-2012
The-global-economy-sucked-into-a-black-hole-and-world
_http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-67-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-October-2012-The-global-economy-sucked-into-a-black-hole-and-world_a12189.html

Global-systemic-crisis-September-October-2012
Red-alert
_http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-66-is-available-Red-alert-Global-systemic-crisis-September-October-2012-When-the-trumpets-of-Jericho-ring-out_a11079.html

Global-systemic-crisis-December-2011
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 1) - An insolvent and ungovernable United States
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 2) - The unstoppable US economic spiral: Recession/depression/inflation
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 3) - The breakdown of the US socio-political fabric
The future of the USA - 2012-2016 (Part 4) - Five strategic proposals to modernize the US institutional system
_http://www.leap2020.eu/Excerpts-and-public-announcements_r41.html

About this unique European think-tank
_http://www.leap2020.eu/Everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-GEAB_r28.html

The Federal Reserve--The Ultimate Pyramid Scheme
_http://www.libertyforlife.com/banking/federal_reserve_bank.html


You can get Aftershock free here:

_www.SurviveTheAftershock.com
(All you have to do is agree to receive a 3-month trial subscription of some excellent financial newsletters. Then, in 3 months, they’ll contact you by mail and e-mail to ask if you want to continue with a paid subscription. There are no strings attached.)

In the meantime, check out the two excellent videos linked on the next page.

VIDEO: The authors of Aftershock explain how they’ve arrived at their conclusion
_http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UseYKxDLnOw

VIDEO: Porter Stansberry, who also predicted the 2008 crash, discusses the social impact of a crash (uniquely presented) _http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1110PSITESVD/LPSIN185/PR
 

Thomas Alan

The Living Force
Hi, JGeropoulas:

Your post reads almost like an ad. How long have you been a subscriber? Have you profited from your membership? To what extent?

I've found that many newsletters act as a gateway to "premium services", "insider" services that offer guidance on specific investments like currencies, commodities etc. Once one is a subscriber do they send you offers for such additional services?

Do they show you the exact results of their model portfolios? That can be verified?

Another thing I've found with financial newsletters is that an investor still has to choose which of the recommendations to invest in. It is unlikely that one would choose to invest in all of the reccos so the investors choice of which ones to go with can dramatically effect the results.

This service does look interesting, I am just asking about some things I have found about such services.
I was a subscriber to Weiss Safe Money for a time. If you look at the basic portfolio the results were only about 3-4%. But the premium services claimed much higher returns at of course much higher costs to access.

Mac
 

JGeropoulas

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Mac said:
Hi, JGeropoulas:

Your post reads almost like an ad.

I guess it does. It's the same problem that I have telling people about SOTT. My genuine confidence and enthusiasm can sound like a sales pitch (or cult devotee, regarding SOTT) :)


How long have you been a subscriber?

I'm not a subscriber. I just read their books and followed their reasoning which is based on facts quite obvious and easily verifiable by other sources (e.g. SOTT). Their macro-economic view parallels what's happening in every facet of our world today--geological, astronomical, environmental, political, etc.

Have you profited...? To what extent?

I bought gold at $1,000, then $1,600/oz and it's been near $1,800/oz lately. But I didn't buy it for profit as much as for preservation of capital and future barter.


I've found that many newsletters act as a gateway to "premium services", "insider" services that offer guidance on specific investments like currencies, commodities etc. Once one is a subscriber do they send you offers for such additional services?

Do they show you the exact results of their model portfolios?

Yes

That can be verified?

My son-in-law is a financial adviser for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. At 31, he was identified as one of the 21 "Up-and-coming young businessmen" of our city of 1.5 million. He is using their advice to manage the funds for which I'm responsible (mine and my mother's trust). Their book has been a New York Times "Best Seller" and the Wall Street Journal had this to say in their review "As bitter as it is, Aftershock's message--that America has yet to pay its bills--deserves an audience. After all, the authors were right once before (2008)" They have a chart in the first book showing what other advisers were saying pre-2008 juxtaposed to what they said in verifiable media sources. Here's a link to a montage of all the appearances Bob Wiedemer has made on financial news segments on television:
_http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOaFyPhG5Tw&context=C443ad88ADvjVQa1PpcFO7C_JzgLrxe0uCUSkjZZFyMaZA7inwg2w=


Another thing I've found with financial newsletters is that an investor still has to choose which of the recommendations to invest in. It is unlikely that one would choose to invest in all of the reccos so the investors choice of which ones to go with can dramatically effect the results.

They are mainly laying out the way the economy works, the dead end we've been lead to by the PTB, and their estimated time frame. They explain the risks and potential of each type investment and suggest strategies for various types of readers (e.g. completely convinced, partially-convinced).

This service does look interesting, I am just asking about some things I have found about such services.
I was a subscriber to Weiss Safe Money for a time. If you look at the basic portfolio the results were only about 3-4%. But the premium services claimed much higher returns at of course much higher costs to access.

I understand, I've read dozens of wild claims and cherry-picked portfolios. They're selling an outlook based on facts vs. products and services, though they are good marketers, but I don't mind that with a valuable product like their book.

Mac
 

Thomas Alan

The Living Force
Thanks for your responses, JGeropoulas: I incorrectly assumed you were a subscriber to their news letter when you relayed the information about getting a free copy of their book with a news letter trial.

The book definitely looks like a valuable read. It is really difficult to find good investments in our times.

Mac
 

JGeropoulas

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Mac said:
Thanks for your responses, JGeropoulas: I incorrectly assumed you were a subscriber to their news letter when you relayed the information about getting a free copy of their book with a news letter trial.

The book definitely looks like a valuable read. It is really difficult to find good investments in our times.

Mac

Actually, the trial newsletters you get with the book do not include the Aftershock Newsletter. Instead, you get the Financial Intelligence Report (which draws from a diverse group of experts writing on a broad range of topics), the Franklin Prosperity Newsletter and the Gold Stock Adviser
 

Thomas Alan

The Living Force
JGeropoulas said:
Mac said:
Thanks for your responses, JGeropoulas: I incorrectly assumed you were a subscriber to their news letter when you relayed the information about getting a free copy of their book with a news letter trial.

The book definitely looks like a valuable read. It is really difficult to find good investments in our times.

Mac

Actually, the trial newsletters you get with the book do not include the Aftershock Newsletter. Instead, you get the Financial Intelligence Report (which draws from a diverse group of experts writing on a broad range of topics), the Franklin Prosperity Newsletter and the Gold Stock Adviser

Actually, for $47 I got 1 year of Financial Intelligence Report and and 3 month trial The Ultimate Wealth Report both of which have articles by Bob Wiedemer among others. And the Aftershock book soon to come. There were offers of maybe 12 free trials of other newsletters on various subjects. Plus 10 or so Special Reports. Interesting stuff so far.

The Ultimate Wealth Report has only been in publication since last spring. Only 5 recommendations in that time, all double digit winners, 2 new ones for October.

Looking forward to reading the book.

Mac
 
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