Is Trump clueless or playing along?

Evan

The Living Force
Part 1) Kellogg reports what is essentially the inverse of Russian (in truth approx 80k) to Ukrainian (in reality over $1 million) deaths. And Russian numbers are conservative (eg: a squad killed in a personnel carrier counts as 1 KIA) Does Trump actually believe this stuff?

Part 2) Sanctions have hurt the dollar and improved the ruble. Everyone with a functioning brain knows this. So is Trump stupid or is he actually working for the Russians?

I know that’s lazy forming of questions. Guilty as charged! But it’s really hard to sound serious when saying poop like this!😆
 
Maybe lying about the Russian and Ukrainian losses is how they are planning to spin the lost war as a "win", eg. that it was a "pyrrhic victory" for Russia and that they lost more in people than they gained in territory, etc.

As to the dollar, it is still strong and dominant, despite very slowly losing its worldwide market share. The ruble is also relatively stable but has been having major ups and downs lately, so I would not say that it is doing too great.
 
He is referring to this interview with Trump's Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg who is indeed either clueless or lying:


Russia is losing five times more soldiers than Ukraine in the ongoing war, future U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg said on Fox Business’s Varney & Co show on Dec. 18.

"That’s attritional warfare. And you never want to get into an attrition fight with the Russians," Kellogg said.

“That’s historically how they fight. That’s how they fought in World War II. They just basically overwhelm you by throwing a massive number of troops at you.”

"After a thousand days of war, with 350,000 or 400,000 Russians dead and 150,000 Ukrainians dead or numbers like that, both sides are saying: 'Okay, maybe this is time we need to step back,'" added Kellogg.
 
I think the jury is out on this one … yet. But … during his first presidency many of his moves were described as a form of 5D-chess, when it turned out afterwards to just have been what was really going on behind the scenes. Maybe Trump learned a few things along the way, but I am not so sure. So far his decision-making and appointments have been a mixed bag.

His biggest fault in my eyes is his pride and vanity, his lack of trying to see behind the obvious, a lack of deeper knowledge and understanding, a lack of awareness of history, all of which can undermine his resolve, which was going into the right direction, to then shoot from the hip in a manner that contravenes his initial plans. And then the wrong lips whispering into his ears …? And I wonder what role Melania plays - my hunch is, she is quite influential to him, but for me it is not clear in what direction.

To sum it up - wait and see!
 
Part 1) Kellogg reports what is essentially the inverse of Russian (in truth approx 80k) to Ukrainian (in reality over $1 million) deaths. And Russian numbers are conservative (eg: a squad killed in a personnel carrier counts as 1 KIA) Does Trump actually believe this stuff?

Part 2) Sanctions have hurt the dollar and improved the ruble. Everyone with a functioning brain knows this. So is Trump stupid or is he actually working for the Russians?

I know that’s lazy forming of questions. Guilty as charged! But it’s really hard to sound serious when saying poop like this!😆

Indeed. Throughout the conflict Ukrainian to Russian kia or wounded remained consistent at about 7-8 to 1
 
He is referring to this interview with Trump's Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg who is indeed either clueless or lying:




Trump himself has also been throwing out numbers in pressers this week, the most common I remember is 800k Ukrainian dead and 900k Russian dead. He's also said a bunch of other dumb things, including that the Russians stole hypersonic missile tech from USA in the Obama years.

Of course he has to pick his battles, he has to dance around the deep state, and I think he's sincerely doing his best. However I also think we need to accept that in some areas he is actually clueless. His bias of American exceptionalism, at odds with reality, will always colour his perception, with negative results.
 
The Art of the Deal

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, voiced her support on Friday for the recent halt in foreign aid seemingly impacting Ukraine.

Newsweek has reached out to Greene and the White House via email for comment.

Why It Matters

Greene, an ally of President Donald Trump, has been a staunch critic of former President Joe Biden's Ukrainian aid amid the Russia-Ukraine war that began nearly three years ago.

Trump has also criticized the billions of dollars the Biden administration has spent in supporting Kyiv and has said that if he was at the negotiating table with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the war between the two nations would end "within 24 hours," leading to concerns that he would press Zelensky to surrender the territory Moscow currently occupies.

While the foreign aid freeze is temporary and Trump has signaled he may continue to take a tough stance on Russia, it's still unclear how much military aid he will give to Kyiv.

What To Know

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday halted spending on most existing foreign aid grants for 90 days.

The order, communicated through a cable to U.S. embassies worldwide and obtained by the Associated Press, prohibits new government spending and implies that existing programs will only continue as long as they have available cash.

As the world's largest provider of foreign aid, the U.S. allocated approximately $60 billion in 2023, which represents about 1 percent of the national budget.

While the new guidance means no further actions will be taken to disperse aid funding to programs already approved by the U.S. government, there are exceptions for humanitarian food initiatives and military aid to Israel and Egypt.

The halt comes after Trump's recent executive order, signed on Monday, instructed the State Department to pause foreign aid grants for 90 days pending review by the secretary.

"President Trump and our new Secretary of State Marco Rubio just stopped all foreign aid to Ukraine and other countries, except Israel and Egypt. The State Department is shocked. The American people are not, we are celebrating," Greene wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

However, it's unclear how exactly the halt will impact Ukraine. According to the AP on Saturday, Zelensky said the U.S. has not stopped military aid to his country. While Zelensky didn't clarify whether humanitarian aid had been paused, he said at a press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu, "I am focused on military aid; it has not been stopped, thank God."

Ukraine relies on the U.S. for 40 percent of its military needs.

The temporary freeze in foreign aid comes after the U.S. was previously set to provide Ukraine an additional $500 million in weapons, announced under the Biden administration earlier this month, drawing from existing U.S. stockpiles.

The military aid, authorized under presidential drawdown authority, allows for expedited transfer of munitions and equipment from U.S. stockpiles to Ukraine. A senior defense official who earlier this month briefed reporters traveling with then-Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the goal was to get those munitions into Ukraine before the end of the month, ensuring that Kyiv remains in a strong position as the administration transitions.

What People Are Saying

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Newsweek earlier this month: "President Trump has repeatedly stated that a top priority in his second term will be to quickly negotiate a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. Also, President Trump believes European nations should meet their NATO defense spending obligations and step up their share of the burden for this conflict, as the U.S. has paid significantly more, which is not fair to our taxpayers. He will do what is necessary to restore peace and rebuild American strength and deterrence on the world stage."

Abby Maxman, head of Oxfam America, told the Associated Press: "By suspending foreign development assistance, the Trump administration is threatening the lives and futures of communities in crisis, and abandoning the United States' long-held bipartisan approach to foreign assistance which supports people based on need, regardless of politics."

She added that the suspension "could have life or death consequences" for children and families around the world.

What Happens Next

Within the next month, standards will be set to review all foreign assistance, aligning it with Trump's policy agenda. The comprehensive government-wide review is expected to be completed within three months, culminating in a report.

Rubio will then use the report to make recommendations to the president.

 
Need a source.
For the numbers Trump’s giving are from his recent speeches (as you are doubtless aware). Here’s Russia’s most recent Table of Losses report on the SMO total (center column), month of January and past 24 hours (next and far right columns). source: Andrei Martyanov. As you can see, it has a total killed and wounded of 1,036,73. According to Martyanov, you can likely double that number because the Russian Army only counts recovered bodies and captured. Those left on the field, recovered by Ukrainian forces (wounded or dead) are not counted.
IMG_2134.jpeg
 
Yup, lazy question. I didn't really understand your question, actually. Is Trump ignorant of the losses in Ukraine? Maybe. Is he stupid? I don't know. I love the changes he's made so far. Maybe it's "wait and see" situation?
The question is: Does Trump know the true numbers?

If so is he deliberately lying.

If not, then he’s being deliberately kept in the dark.

Which it is makes all the difference in the world going into a private meeting with Putin. If Trump goes in with those ridiculous numbers, Putin’s first thought is going to be, “Is he being lied to or does he think I’m an idiot?”
 
I can post a picture of the GDP and PPI indices for the last four years, which clearly shows the Russian economy booming. They’re literally financing the building of roads and infrastructure at such a rate that they don’t have enough men to do the construction.

Ask Zakharova or Peskov what the reaction to the threat of sanctions is: Laughter. Every time the West sanctions Russia, their economy grows. Not twenty years ago; not ten years ago; today. For the last seven years. Once they corrected for the initial hit, their economy is virtually sanction-proof. Numbers don’t lie.

The bottom line is that in today’s world, threatening Russia with sanctions is the equivalent of telling someone if they don’t do as you say, you’ll yell again. And if they still don’t come around, you’ll yell louder.

Incidentally, it was regarding the threat of sanctions that I made the remark about being stupid, not the number of dead. And that point stands. If Mr Art of the Deal walks into the room with Vladimir Putin thinking that he’s going to get anywhere with “sanctions” or “tariffs”, he’s not only stupid, he’s a fool. The only item that Trump could put a tariff on is uranium, and we’re the ones who need it! So tariffs are off the table. Next comes sanctions. Nothing? Nyet. Zip. Nada.

So we’re back to those “million dead Russian soldiers”

Sounds like a real quick meeting for Putin.

And a really long one for Trump.

UNLESS…as many of you have suggested, he’s bluffing the numbers. That’s certainly my hope.

Which is why I put this up as a possible question for the Cs.
 
The question is: Does Trump know the true numbers?

If so is he deliberately lying.

If not, then he’s being deliberately kept in the dark.

Which it is makes all the difference in the world going into a private meeting with Putin. If Trump goes in with those ridiculous numbers, Putin’s first thought is going to be, “Is he being lied to or does he think I’m an idiot?”
I'd love to be a fly on the wall for that meeting. Hopefully Trump has people in his corner to advise him of such things if he's ignorant of the true numbers. Same for Putin. I think, and I'm probably projecting, Trump and Putin want peace and the killing to stop. Hopefully they will have a meeting of the minds and get that done.
 
I'd love to be a fly on the wall for that meeting. Hopefully Trump has people in his corner to advise him of such things if he's ignorant of the true numbers. Same for Putin. I think, and I'm probably projecting, Trump and Putin want peace and the killing to stop. Hopefully they will have a meeting of the minds and get that done.
Step one is getting Zelensky to cancel the law he added to the Ukrainian Constitution (when he actually was president) that makes negotiations with Russia illegal. He’s legally prohibited anyone from Ukraine sitting at the table.

Secondly, Zelensky’s term ended in May. Putin has already stated that he will not negotiate terms with an illegitimate head of state, if for no other reason than anything Zelensky signs cannot be binding because he’s not the legitimate president. Putin was a lawyer before he went to work for the KGB. He knows this. So a new government has to happen first. And that’s exactly what he said earlier this week. Lavrov echoed it on Wednesday. So there would have to be an election before anyone goes reaching for a pen. Now if Zelensky pulls his troops and howitzers out of Kursk, and takes a big step back from the line of contact, Putin may stop advancing temporarily, but that’s the best Trump can hope to get, and Zelensky would have to make the move. But there will be a clock on that election, and the Zelensky administration will not be acceptable. They have to go. That’s not open for negotiation. And Trump can’t negotiate on Zelensky’s behalf, because that too would not be binding for Ukraine anymore than Boris Johnson negotiating on behalf of Joe Biden would have been.
 
Incidentally, it was regarding the threat of sanctions that I made the remark about being stupid, not the number of dead. And that point stands. If Mr Art of the Deal walks into the room with Vladimir Putin thinking that he’s going to get anywhere with “sanctions” or “tariffs”, he’s not only stupid, he’s a fool. The only item that Trump could put a tariff on is uranium, and we’re the ones who need it! So tariffs are off the table. Next comes sanctions. Nothing? Nyet. Zip. Nada.
Sanctions or tariffs on Russia by the West are indeed not much of a threat anymore. There is hardly anything left to sanction.

The only real leverage Trump has is his threat to supply even more weapons to Ukraine. Whether it is a real possibility or whether he is bluffing is another question.
 
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