Rising fluxes of cosmic rays inside the solar system

XPan

The Living Force
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And there it came - the geomagnetic Storm (K Index 7)
night from 3 to 4th November 2021

I was surprized, because I bumped into the (first) info about Northern Lights, this morning at 06.00 in the Swedish mainstream media (a rare place for Aurora). They published an article around 23.30 that Northern light were visible over Southern Sweden.. and was I like... wuah ?!? And... how could I miss that ? Well easy... it was cloudy with drizzle all evening while driving the subway, that's why. Albeit I do remember that on my way home around 03.30 some parts of the sky broke up a little bit, because I noticed the very clear stars... but nothing glowing, though.

As of now, 06.00 local time, the storm appear to go on over Canada and US. When the estimate approaches 100 GW, that's always a splendid energy number for visible aurora, of course. Here in Stockholm... well, dawn is just about to rise and it is.... uhm... overcast with fog. Wehee (not).


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Spaceweather.com

showed some beautiful images, which were taken by Marcus Varik in Tomsø, North Norway in the late night of 3 Nov 2021. And boy he had a great time, you can tell !

Spaceweather wrote:

A cannibal CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 3rd (~20:00 UT). The impact sparked a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm with intense auroras around the Arctic Circle.

Varik is one of the most experienced guides in Norway. "Even I was impressed," he says. "The auroras were strong, one of the best displays in years. I am very tired, but happy."

Earth is now passing through the CME's wake. Storm conditions have subsided to category G1 (minor) with occasional episodes of G2 (moderately strong). This means auroras may be visible in northern-tier US states such as Minnesota and Montana. Dark skies are essential, so get away from city lights.

What is a Cannibal CME?

It's a CME that eats its own kind. On Nov. 2nd, sunspot AR2891 hurled a fast CME toward Earth. As it approached our planet, it overtook at least one other CME and swallowed it. The mashed-up pair struck Earth on Nov. 3rd (2000 UT). Solar wind data from the DSCOVR spacecraft showed a stairstep structure indicative of two or more CMEs pressed together.

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Ocean

The Living Force

M1.7 solar flare with earth-directed CME​




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What a week we are having! Hello Solar Cycle 25! Sunspot region 2891 (which is directly facing Earth!) produced a very long duration M1.7 (R1-minor) solar flare this morning that peaked at 03:01 UTC.

This solar flare was eruptive and this sunspot region was in a perfect Earth-facing position to launch a coronal mass ejection towards Earth which it did. We get it, we are all still traumatized from the disappointing coronal mass ejection arrival from the X1.0 solar flare. But fear not, this coronal mass ejection is much better aimed towards Earth. Looking at SOHO LASCO (see the tweets below) we see a very nice asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection. The bulk of the ejecta might have been launched more towards the south and east but still we can not complain to much, this is not going to be a glancing blow. We will notice this impact when the cloud arrives.

The SIDC reports a preliminary speed of about 650km/s for this coronal mass ejection which is not very fast. We do have to keep in mind that the cloud will slow down on its way to Earth so the solar wind speed at Earth will not be that high but the cloud is well aimed at Earth, so a decent impact should still be expected. No worries about a glancing blow for this one!

The SIDC has a preliminary impact time late on Thursday, 4 November with no word yet from the NOAA SWPC on what they predict and what kind of storm conditions to expect. We think a moderate G2 geomagnetic storm watch will be issued for Friday, 5 November and maybe even for late on 4 November based on the trajectory and speed of the plasma cloud but maybe we are getting yet another G3 geomagnetic storm watch. We will see, keep an eye on our social media channel for updates!



What caused the active geomagnetic conditions last night?​

We had some nice solar wind/IMF conditions last night and this prompted the question among some people if the activity last night might have been from the X1 solar flare. The answer to that is a clear no. The interplanetary shock at 9:15 UTC on Sunday morning was for sure the coronal mass ejection from the X1 solar flare. The increase in the solar wind conditions last night were due to the leading edge of a coronal hole solar wind stream which came from the northern hemisphere polar coronal hole. We see today the high speed solar wind stream following the initial CIR, confirming this is indeed a coronal hole stream. The X1 coronal mass ejection arrived on Sunday and was obviously not so well aimed at Earth as initially thought resulting in lackluster geomagnetic activity compared to what was expected.
 
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