The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

[Voyageur]

From another thread, cross referenced Svensmark theory (interesting graphic here) after reading from Dr. Tim Ball:

Here is a good graphical summary of Henrik Svensmark’s theory: Effects of galactic cosmic ray flux on Earth climate and biological diversity.

Original article here : _A stellar revision of the story of life

Cosmic rays in action. The main findings in the new Svensmark paper concern the uppermost stellar band, the green band of living things and, on the right, atmospheric chemistry. Although solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays is important to us on short timescales, its effects are smaller and briefer than the major long-term changes controlled by the rate of formation of big stars in our vicinity, and their self-destruction as supernovae. Although copyrighted, this figure may be reproduced with due acknowledgement in the context of Henrik Svensmark's work.

In reading the article by Dr. Tim Ball 'No Scientific Basis for Canadian Carbon (CO2) Tax plan' the other day, which deconstructs the general arguments in the main. He brings up Svensmark.

People sometimes send me stuff on 'climate change' - mostly funny graphs or poor arguments on AGW to bolster its case. They never mention the Sun and other cosmic matters, though, as that would get in the way of the narrative. If not mistaken, the AGW crowd likes to keep the whole bag in the lower atmosphere - that's it, that's all. I sometimes ask people about the other influences, usually without response, although they might blink a few times and change the subject.

Tried an experiment related to what kids would find out today, what they study of the climate. I know many people were always taught, that that bright thing in the sky and space itself, well it's a bid deal. So, Googled 'Why is the sun not a factor in climate models?' and the very fist reference, for me anyway, is Ruled Out | A Student's Guide to Global Climate Change | US EPA (aka Environmental Protection Agency).

Being that this is from 2017, I was a bit surprised it was still there (re a new government who had pulled out of the Paris Accord).

The link is a 101 Q&A guild for kids (poor kids). Perhaps it i used extensively in school curriculum today, not sure (maybe some peeps with kids can reaffirm or not)

Here is how the info-test went. As for the sun, their answer is 'Ruled Out’ in the Q&A:

"Many factors, such as the sun, the Earth's orbit, and sometimes even volcanic eruptions, can affect the Earth's climate. Scientists use climate models to look at all these factors and determine what is causing climate change. They find that there's only one clear explanation for what's happening now: Extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are warming the Earth. Learn more about climate models."

You can then take their “Climate Challenge’ by picking either the Sun, the Earth's Orbit or Volcanoes. I’ve picked the everyday visual one, the Sun.

The Sun

The facts: Since the 1970s, the sun has been cooling slightly. Over this same time period, the Earth has gotten warmer. Most of the warming has occurred in the lower atmosphere near the Earth's surface.

• Could the sun be responsible for today's climate change?
  
  No. If the sun were the cause of climate change, the Earth's temperature would be cooling, not warming! Also, if the sun were responsible for the increased warming, it would occur throughout the entire atmosphere.

• 
  
  So, "the sun is NOT the cause of today's climate change" (here the bold is theirs). And there you have it, the Sun is irrelevant (it's no big deal - its “NOT” a thing, it is not even required in the IPCC's model - nothing to see here.

Going back to Dr. Ball, he provides an interesting review of the Sun in this article Svensmark’s Cosmic Theory Confirmed; Explains More Than Solar Role in Climate Change

Here is how Ball explains it:

The IPCC consistently ignore the relationship between sunspot and global temperature though there’s extensive literature beginning with Galileo’s observations of sunspots in 1610. They said there was no explanatory mechanism, but that wasn’t true after 1991 when Friis-Christensen and Larsen published“Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate” in Science. In 1996 Friis-Christensen, Director of the Danish National Space Institute, DTU, said,

“The evidence has piled up, first for the link between cosmic rays and low-level clouds and then, by experiment and observation, for the mechanism involving aerosols. All these consistent scientific results illustrate that the current climate models used to predict future climate are lacking important parts of the physics”

It appeared more fully in 1997 as the CT in embryonic form with Svensmark and Friis-Christensen’s “Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage – a Missing Link in Solar-Climate relationships”. The 2001 IPCC Report mentioned it briefly, but it was omitted in the 2007 Report. The IPCC proponents claimed there was no evidence that cosmic radiation was creating as condensation nuclei in the atmosphere.

The problem was given to a supposedly neutral agency.

“The Director General of CERN stirred controversy last month, by saying that the CLOUD team’s report should be politically correct about climate change.”

Why? Now the results are published and the final piece in the puzzle is confirmed. Besides confirming the CT, they answer a longstanding problem. However, an important part of the discovery is missed, partly because of lack of focus on water vapor and precipitation, but mostly because the IPCC control of climate science blocked knowledge and advances for 30 years. A major problem in early meteorology and weather and climate research was there were more clouds than nuclei.

Evaporation occurs when water molecules use energy from the Sun to escape from a surface. This is a phase change, as water in liquid form becomes a gas, water vapor. The energy is not lost but becomes latent heat in the water vapor. If the air temperature is cooled below the Dew Point Temperature then a reverse phase change occurs called condensation and water vapor becomes liquid. The latent heat is released, which is why temperatures usually rise when precipitation occurs. The problem is this process requires a critical component, a solid surface. In the atmosphere this is provided by the CN. Water vapor condenses on to them to form water droplets, which are microscopic. They’re visible as clouds and remain suspended because they are so small – it’s estimated 1 million must combine to form a moderate sized raindrop.

The majority of CN were salt particles, kaolinite, the smallest clay particles and other particulates. Now the CT provides the missing nuclei. The amount of cosmic radiation is reduced as it passes through the Sun’s magnetic field and then the Earth’s magnetic field and then the upper atmosphere. In the atmosphere the cosmic rays become muons or heavy electrons that penetrate to sea level. They are the missing CN.

Proof that cosmic rays provide CN to form clouds in the lower atmosphere is an ugly fact that even the professional scientific spin-doctors cannot avoid. These clouds vary with the intensity of cosmic rays reaching the atmosphere and act like a shade in the global greenhouse to control temperature. We now have proof of the mechanism or cause and effect for what was previously only a correlation. Sunspots are not the cause but a manifestation of changes in the Sun’s magnetic field that in turn modulates the intensity of cosmic rays reaching the Earth. So another ugly fact creates a large cloud that destroys the politically driven AGW hypothesis.

No 'comet dust' talk, yet he offers his take on it from the CT papers.

In the Canadian article - which is not new here for many, Ball points out (here starting with a political note):

Andrew Scherr was elected Conservative leader opposing the human-caused global warming claim. One of his first actions as leader was to have the Conservatives vote to support the Paris Climate Accord. The Conservatives knew the science was wrong because we told them. We told Nancy Green and anyone who would listen all to no avail.

The farce begins with the fact it is not a carbon tax. What they intend to limit is the amount of CO2 that Canadians produce with the false belief it will stop global warming. There are three areas, any of which invalidates the plan.

1. Science: CO2 is only 4% of the greenhouse gases and the human portion is 3.4% of that making it on average 0.032% of all atmospheric gases. These numbers are so imprecise that even if the complete Paris treaty was applied the atmospheric difference would be undetectable. Estimates say it would reduce the global temperature by 0.048°C by 2100. That assumes that a CO2 increase will cause a temperature increase. Every record shows the opposite, temperature increases first. The only place where a CO2 increases raises temperatures is in the computer models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is partly why the model predictions (projections) are consistently wrong yet that is the basis of the Paris Agreement and the Canadian tax plan.

2. Economic Context: Trump exited the Paris Agreement because it is a bad deal for all developed nations including Canada. While they roll back production the developing nations, including China, Russia, and India can develop unrestricted some until 2030. Worse, the developed nations must put $100 billion a year into the Green Climate Fund (GCF) from which even China, now the world’s biggest producer of CO2 is entitled to draw. The developed nations are in a bar fight with both hands tied behind their back and blindfolded.

3. Comments of Proponents: The entire global warming deception was never about the climate. Don’t believe us, take it from the people at the center of the scheme. Climate was a convenient global threat that allowed the UN planners, primarily Maurice Strong {a Canadian}, to overcome nation-states claiming only a world government could handle the problem. Elaine Dewar said after 5 days with Strong at the UN, “Strong was using the U.N. as a platform to sell a global environment crisis and the Global Governance Agenda.” In 2015, Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change said, “This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution.”This follows former US Senator and now Vice Chair of the United Nations Foundation and the Better World Fund Timothy Wirth’s earlier (1993) comment that, “We’ve got to ride the global warming issue. Even with the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing…” look at his self-described manipulation in this PBS interview. A former Canadian Liberal Minister of the Environment, Christine Stewart said, “No matter if the science of global warming is all phony, climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.”

So, it's "justice and equality" and taxes of course.

Probably a good idea to monitor our kids (if you have any) homework. The problem is that if parents try and help with the revisionist Q&A homework, the kids will get an 'F' and the parents will likely be asked to come to a parent teacher interview and explain.

There are a great many programs running, yet I've never seen one so coordinated and entrenched as this AGW one - from kindergarten to university to old age.

 

[Laura]

No record heat here in SW France. Need a sweater right now.

 

[Eulenspiegel]

Things have cooled down here in Southern Germany. I actually wish this so called "heat wave" had lasted a bit longer. It was just what I would call "normal summer"

 

[Laura]

The planet is experiencing an unexplained major cooling and scientists are ignoring it.
Andy May / 1 day ago August 14, 2018
By Javier
A most remarkable climate phenomenon is taking place under our very noses without anybody paying attention to it.
As nearly everybody knows, the planet is warming. Since its short-term rate of temperature change hasn’t changed much, the warming is essentially accomplished because the planet spends less time cooling than warming. Therefore, periods of cooling have become shorter and result in less cooling.
In the figure below, we can see the top 10 biggest periods of cooling in terms of temperature decrease since 1950. The data used is a 13-month centered average of the monthly HadCRUT 4.6 global dataset found here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs...ime_series/HadCRUT.4.6.0.0.monthly_ns_avg.txt

The date given is that of the month of maximum temperature when the cooling started, and the length in months is to the month of minimum temperature when the cooling ended.
Notice how the top four took place before 1975, during the ENSO period dominated by La Niña conditions.
The data for the cooling period that started in 02/2016 (red in the figure) is provisional, as the cooling has not ended as of June 2018. If it continues for a few more months, it could easily make it to the top three.

Figure 1​

The most remarkable thing is that every single top cooling period in the list has a reasonable explanation except the current one. Two of them are associated with the major volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo, and seven of them are associated with major La Niña events when the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) reached a standard deviation of -1 (see bottom panel in the figure).
Only the current cooling period remains there unexplained, without a big volcanic eruption and without a major La Niña event.
Climate scientists should be looking for a reason for this most interesting cooling instead of ignoring it.
Why is the planet cooling now?
Everybody can have their own favorite explanation. Personally, I see no other reasonable cause for the cooling but low solar activity.

 

[whitecoast]

It seems like amid all the "unpersoning" of dissidents on social media these days that climate skeptics are also in the crosshairs. I'm actually starting to get furious. They're literally costing lives by trying to squelch this information.

 

[Laura]

Well, as far as I can see, it's all over but the crying. The planet is definitely moving into a cooler atmosphere period though certainly, thanks to rotational slowdown it IS heating up in the interior. These combined elements are making for crazy weather all over, and also may very well be those elements necessary for the onset of an ice age; you need increased precipitation which can only come by increased heat, AND increased ice packing which only comes by cooler atmosphere. Well, we seem to have both at present.

Historically, the end result is inevitably crop failures, food shortages, starvation, epidemics, etc.

 

[angelburst29]

Aug 16, 2018 - Two French rivers disappear underground in large cracks and sinkholes: The Doubs River (Franche-Comté) and the Risle (Normandy)
Two French rivers disappear underground in large cracks and sinkholes: The Doubs River (Franche-Comté) and the Risle (Normandy) - Strange Sounds

The Doubs river flows normally in Franche-Comté, France. But since about a week or so, the river has totally dried up over a length of more than 1 km, between Pontarlier and Morteau, although precipitation has been abundant this winter and spring. The river has disappeared, and with it, the fauna and flora. Everything is dead. Two weeks ago, 13km of the Risle River in Normandy also disappeared underground in a large crater. According to geologists, this unprecedented event is due to large cracks and craters in the riverbed.

The Doubs River has disappeared underground in August 2018. PhotoPQR/L’Est Républicain/MaxPP via Le Parisien

The cave of Remonot is located near the village of Morteau along the Doubs. Dedicated to the Virgin Mary, this Chapel-Cave contains miraculous water and is visited each year on August 15, 2018, day of the Assumption. But during this year’s annual pilgrimage, the cave was dry! The first time ever!

Nearby, the Doubs river is also dry. No water, just pebbles and dead fish.

This situation is anomalous as it has abundantly rained this spring and winter. via Facebook

Residents explain they have never seen this before. The river has disappeared over more than 1 kilometer, and with it, the fauna and flora. Everything is dead. The president of a local fishing association reports having experienced such a situation during the severe drought of 1976. But now, it’s different… there was a lot of snow and water this winter. This situation is totally insane and ANOMALOUS!

Instead of a large flowing river, the Doubs is dry, with just pebbles and dead fish visible. By Fabrice Coffrini

Now, geologists say the river disappearance is due to large cracks in the karstic riverbed, which empty the river underground like a siphon. It is perhaps the important spring floods that washed away the sediment patches that blocked the holes and fissures.

The most logical explanations are cracks or craters in the riverbed. By Fabrice Coffrini

After disappearing, the Doubs than re-enters the Loue, the other large river in the region. So the cracks kind of link the two rivers?!?

No swimming, just walking on the riverbed! By Fabrice Coffrini

Two weeks ago, 13km of the Risle River also disappeared suddenly in Normandy, after a big sinkhole openened up in the riverbed:

(Published on Aug 9, 2012 (1:11 min.)

But now, everybody is just wondering when will the rivers reappear again! Well, it may take longer than you think guys!

 

[Laura]

Those disappearing rivers are very strange.

One thing I have noticed after 5 months of rain almost every day this past year (Nov-March, inclusive) is that our spring has almost doubled it's flow. It used to take about 2.5 days to fill the pond after we emptied it for cleaning; this year it took about 1.5 days.

When rivers start going underground, one wonders what other structures might be undermined by the flow? And how might that affect the surface?

 

[Laura]

Once again the weather site is telling me that the current temp is 35 C/ 95 F. However, the thermometers around the place all say that it is about 28 C/82 F and I'm pretty sure it didn't get any hotter than about 30 C/ 86 F today. They just keep lying.

 

[thorbiorn]

A few days ago, on August 22, I flew over Germany from south to north and noticed that the outside temperature at 40000 feet was - 63 Celsius, which is the lowest temperature I can recall having flown in. Usually it is minus 55-minus 57 At the ground the temperature that day was around 25 C, a difference of around 85 degrees. I do not know how common it is to get such a low temperature at this altitude, I tried to find some radiosonde data as several stations send up helium balloons with a radio sonde attached, but I couldn't find anything. And although it is possible to get some equipment to receive the data, I don't think I have the facilities to set it up. Still I did find some sources where one can read about the equipment and learn where to buy it: RTL-SDR Tutorial: Receiving Weather Balloon (Radiosonde) Data with RTL-SDR and Buy RTL-SDR Dongles (RTL2832U)

 

[Laura]

Cross-posting here: I'm up early - moon woke me up. And guess what? It's 12 C /54 F right now. This is the 25th of August and we have only had a couple of weeks of real summer weather so far and it's already acting like autumn. Checked the weather site and at least they are being honest now: they say it is 9 C /49 F. I expect it is exactly that in the region. Quite chilly! Heck, this is practically "fire in the wood stove" weather!!!

 

[Konstantin]

I have noticed the same. Weather forecasts for this summer were always too high but in reality, the temperatures moved just over 30C just for a few days. Either they are lying or they have some faulty mathematical computer model and they are using it to make their forecasts not paying real attention to the weather around them.

New storm ( cold front from the north ) is coming over Europe this weekend and as they predict it will even bring the snow on the Alps and maybe on some other high altitude places and temperatures will plunge for 10C.

 

[Laura]

This is turning out to be "The Year Almost Without a Summer".

 

[Esote]

Although there is real drought and heat in many places in France and in the north of Europe, in the south of the Alps it has been raining a lot through the springtime and the the summer (a very good thing since we had about two years of drought before), and just now it's starting to be quite chilly, specially in the morning (10° C). It looks like autumn with green grass all over...

 

[Andrian]

In northern Italy it rained mostly during the whole spring and during summer until late Julywith few very hot days. Starting last week of July until yesterday at least in the Northern - Central part of Italy there was a heatwave present with temperatures between 35-38 C, i witnessed it myself, while on my bike to Rome and back, everywhere i stopped it was pretty hot, but nothing abnormal, in fact i would say that in comparison to the previous summers this one is one of the coldest, since as i mentioned, until late July, at least in the Central - Northern Italy it was raining at least a couple of times a week, the only "excessive" heat we experienced was for about 1 month approximately, but nothing unusual…