The New Grand Minimum

aaron

Jedi Master
FOTCM Member
Hi All, I was searching for the rainfall pattern in my area during previous solar minimums and came across a paper by Brett Walker called, "The New Grand Minimum". It was presented to the Australian Actuarial Summit in May 2013.
Probably the most informative and coherent (real) science based information I have come across on climate change.
Pardon the pun but it is kind of chilling reading.
 

aaron

Jedi Master
FOTCM Member
Sorry, if you google, The New Grand Minimum Australian Actuarial Summit, it should be at the top.
 

aaron

Jedi Master
FOTCM Member
That's it. Thanks. Walker also has a paper called,"Extra-terrestrial Influences on Nature's Risks". Choc full of science.
 

Hello H2O

Dagobah Resident
FOTCM Member
That was a very good paper. Probably one of many that have been rejected by the mainstream Climate Change narrative.

I took a few snippets from the paper, but the whole thing is worth reading.

=======================

...The last grand minimum – the Dalton Minimum – commenced in the late 18th Century so, logically if these are occurring roughly every 200 years, it would seem that the next grand minimum should have already commenced or will very soon.

International Panel on Climate Change View

According to models used by the International Panel on Climate Change, the second, most recent, period of higher sunspot activity was not the primary cause of an increase in temperature. On this latest occasion most of the increase in global temperatures was caused by mankind. More specifically it was mankind’s industrialisation and its concomitant requirement for energy that caused higher emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. These higher levels of this atmospheric gas then caused the observed increase in global temperatures. More likely is that there were a number of factors that caused the 20th Century global warming. However more responsibility should be given to the sun.

Use of Predictive Models

The computer models that are currently being relied upon to forecast climate change have so far proved fairly unreliable. On the other hand the NASA ephemeris models, that are used by some solar and astrophysicists to predict changes in the sun due to gravitational forces of other bodies in the solar system, are extremely reliable in predicting exactly where all relatively large extra-terrestrial bodies in our solar system will be located at any point in time in the past, present and future. Without these models NASA and other space agencies would not have had the successes in interplanetary exploration and satellite positioning that they have had to date3.

There are many disparate forces that intertwine in ways to make each grand minimum different. Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, of the St Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory and head of the Russian/Ukrainian section of the International Space Station uses different models that predict that this new grand minimum will be as severe as the Maunder Minimum. But many astro-physicists and solar physicists who have used the NASA ephemeris model predict it will be more like the preceding Dalton Minimum. If the latter are correct, given that there has been some global warming for about 150 years, the climate changes that will occur will not be too extreme - unless there are some really large volcanic eruptions that drag global temperature down rapidly4.


3 The ephemeris is a computer system used in the exploration of the solar system and accurately plots the position of the sun, planets, their satellites and asteroids at any time past, present or future (within a few thousand year timeframe). It is freely available on the NASA website for anyone to use. There are also other versions of this system that have been developed in other countries.


But if Dr Abdussamatov is correct then this grand minimum will cause many economic and political changes and some may be very unpleasant.

...

Summary

The sun’s sunspot activity during a grand minimum, paradoxically, plays a significant role in producing extreme “ice-age” type cold weather events in the Northern Hemisphere while at the same time causing arctic regions to become warmer. This activity also can cause conditions that increase the short term risks of major, even great earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.


There will be increased risks for the insurance industry during the Eddy Minimum. These are:

1. The increased incidence of violent storms will lead to higher property claims and increased crop insurance claims.

2. The colder and sometimes very much colder Northern Hemisphere winters will lead to higher business costs from lost production.

3. Longer winters, increased droughts and stalled monsoons will cause significant crop losses.

4. The continuing high incidence of great earthquakes causing sometimes catastrophic property and business losses which will be increased, particularly if they are followed by large tsunamis.

5. Higher mortality rates result from extreme weather, droughts, failed monsoons and seismic events. (For example, it was estimated that there were 6000 excess deaths from the March 2013 cold weather in the UK.)

The secondary effects of these also have risk consequences. These result from political instability caused by:

1. High food inflation due to failed crops and reductions in grain stores.

2. High energy price inflation due to the lack of enough energy supplies in some locations during periods of excessively cold conditions.

3. Population concerns about the future leading to political unrest.

4. Major business disruptions due to extreme weather or major seismic events.


This paper identifies why the Actuarial Profession should be using space weather and other space age tools to identify changes in a number of short-term and long-term risks.

...
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

:phaser:
The floods in Venice that have killed two people and damaged hundreds of buildings including St Mark’s Basilica appear inexorable.

The city is a fragile treasure built on 118 islands off Italy’s northeast coast. In a way, it’s a miracle that Venice has managed to survive and thrive for more than 1,000 years. It built a naval and commercial empire and created an immense collection of palaces and churches, full of priceless paintings, to which an estimated 20 million tourists flock every year.

Yet there’s nothing really inevitable about the increased frequency of these floods and the failings of the Italian state to protect Venice. Man-made climate change is, of course, the main culprit. But so too is the bureaucracy and corruption that are undermining the preservation of one of the world’s most stunning artistic landmarks.

It’s always difficult to pin the blame for one particular flood on global warming. But the data tell us there’s something very unusual going on. Last year there were 121 days of high tides in Venice, almost twice the number in 2017. The city authorities have counted the times since 1923 that the tide has been more than 140 cm above sea level, so-called “exceptional high tides.” Over half these episodes have taken place in the past two decades.

Meanwhile the statistic's tell us different.
The #14novembre 1951, the Po overflows and invades the area of #Polesine : i #vigilidelfuoco they worked for days, without stopping, saving hundreds of people in the invaded countryside in a few moments from eight billion cubic meters of water #pernondimenticare

SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Journal: The Observatory, Vol. 72, p. 35-44 (1952)

Prato Nevoso, Italy
Snow depth ski season 2017-2018
Snow depth ski season 2016-2017

It has been 13 times the earthquake in Bali based on sources from bmkg inatews may be checked http://inatews.bmkg.go/?act=realtimeev
or https://volcanoyt.com/earthquake

Boccadasse at the beginning of the storm, on the afternoon of October 29, 2018. The point, a year after the great storm that devastated the coasts of our region, at @tgrrai Liguria of the 14, broadcast on @RaiTre

 

Michael Barker-Caven

Jedi Master
FOTCM Member
I wasn't sure if to post this on here or on:

The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

Mods might consider if they should be merged?

Anyway, another excellent video from Ice Age Farmer:


Of particular note is the following:

05:38

A strep bacteria commonly found in horses has suddenly made its way over to pigs and was isolated both in pigs and dogs this year. Quote

‘What is unusual is that this form of strep has gotten over to pigs’ and is causing instant death”

… there's not a lot of symptoms there - that is the symptom; sudden death.

So again this is not ASF (Asian Swine Flu) itself; this is an unusual form of a strep bacterium - but this tells us two things; first of all that the US swine's are in poor shape, they're in poor health, and they are succumbing to these new diseases right now - so we're primed to receive ASF. And for a second thing this is reminiscent of a report I did nearly two years ago pointing out that during solar minimum there are immunosuppressive effects from the increase in galactic cosmic rays. Furthermore they have an effect on both viruses and bacteria causing rapid mutations.

From "The Journal of Astrobiology & Outreach 2017: Sunspot cycle minima and pandemics: the case for vigilance"

And I'll read from the abstract briefly again (and you can see my previous report as well for more on this) quote:

“Minima in the sunspot cycle present conditions conducive to the entry or activation of new pathogens and also for mutations of existing ones, both bacteria and viruses. Three grand minima of solar activity on record - the Spore minimum (1450-1550AD), the Maunder minimum (1650-1700AD) and the Dalton minimum (1800-1830) - have all been marked by a preponderance of pandemics – Small Pox, English Sweats, the Plague, Cholera.”

…and so it is not uncharacteristic for us now in a solar minimum to be seeing rapidly changing viruses, suppressed immune systems (both human and animal) and in fact in China it's also being reported just yesterday that two people have been affected with the black death there, so this is something to keep an eye on certainly a huge threat to the global food supply protein.

Now there's another interesting little bit of a nuance here. There is a British company called PIC – ‘The pig improvement company’ which was started with know natural breeding pigs, but they have since moved on to genetically modifying their pigs – it’s now an animal genetics company - and they have struck a deal in May this year with China to produce pigs specifically that are resistant to PR RSV (it's another virus not a ASF). But you can bet your bottom dollar that this firm is actively at work producing an ASF resistant pig - in fact they're talking about actively producing an ASF resistant pig right now… and so I did an incredibly ‘scientific’ Twitter poll asking folks if they thought that ASF was an engineered virus in order to bring about these problems and actually a preponderance of people believe that it is!

Without even giving credence to that we can be absolutely certain that whatever the origin ASF is causing immense problems for the world's production of pork right now and it looks like it will be another vector for the centralization and consolidation of control of the world food supply into a very small number of hands, in this case those who control the genes of the virus resistant pigs.
We who are dependent on our pig brothers for our fat and good health see portents and signs of struggles to come!
 
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c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
This is what maybe, underway here. The current cloud cover continues unprecedented since the beginning of the year.
With damage control already active.

[Mini glacial period] Does Europe enter the mini glacial period after the US? https://youtube.com/watch?v=0n9LKAmho-s Increased radiative cooling due to thinning of the thermosphere and a decrease in solar radiation in the winter generate intense cold waves. If the snow and ice area increases due to intense cold waves, the albedo (sunlight reflectance) will increase and the cold will stay
 
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