'Brexit' wins, UK to leave the EU?

[Thebull]

PM calls for general election on June 8th

Well looks like the uk will be returning back to the polls. Wonder if we're in for another roller coaster. Let's get ready and see what this brings.

 

[Jenn]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

Theresa May has called for a "snap election" June 8th

Prime Minister Theresa May has called for a UK general election to be held on June 8.
She said that since becoming prime minister she has delivered the stability that the country needed.

May says her government has achieved its mandate after the Brexit referendum, saying there can be “no turning back,” and that the government has a plan in place for negotiations on the UK’s departure from the EU.
May says there should be unity in Westminster over Brexit, but there is not. She says Labour has threatened to vote against the final deal, and the Liberal Democrats want to bring parliamentary business to a standstill.

She says she is not prepared to allow her opponents to jeopardize Brexit negotiations.

“We need a general election and we need one now … I have only recently and reluctantly come to this conclusion.”

May says she will move a motion in the Commons on Wednesday proposing the election.

“It will be a choice between strong and stable leadership in the national interest, with me as your prime minister, or weak and unstable government under a coalition led by Jeremy Corbyn.”

She added: “It was with reluctance that I decided the country needed this election but it is with conviction that I say it is necessary … so tomorrow let the House of Commons vote for an election, let everybody put forward their proposals for Brexit and their vision for Government.”

DETAILS TO FOLLOW

Could she be trying to silence the opposition and scare voters away from Corbyn? Delay BREXIT even further if a coalition takes power and the parties start to squabble and can't agree on terms and conditions? Alternatively is she trying to pass the buck, and get out of a messy situation that she hasn't got a clue how to deal with?

 

[RedFox]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

All of the above I think, along with delaying/blocking another Scottish independence vote.

 

[Scottie]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

I suspect this is just more The Lunatics Are Losing Control of the Asylum. Kind of like this:

Governor Tarkin: Princess Leia, before your execution, I'd like you to join me for a ceremony that will make this battle station operational. No star system will dare oppose the Emperor now.

Princess Leia Organa: The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers.

Governor Tarkin: Not after we demonstrate the capabilities of this station.

[Governor Tarkin then launches a MOAB that explodes (relatively uselessly) in the desert...]

 

[Niall]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

This tickles me a bit :)

They're counting on the 'reality' they've created - the one where 'Labour is in disarray' and 'Corbyn is unelectable'. But that 'reality' May collide with actual reality come June.

 

[SocietyoftheSpectacle]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

If Corbyn Promises to Honour Brexit,
he could win a majority.
Time to see if they are
"All in it together".
he is a Fabian after all.

 

[Thebull]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

This tickles me a bit :)

They're counting on the 'reality' they've created - the one where 'Labour is in disarray' and 'Corbyn is unelectable'. But that 'reality' May collide with actual reality come June.

I was surprised by the timing and thought it may be to play on Labour's weakness at this time. I hope that the realities do collide and they get the Suprise of their life. Then just saw the article below on Sott.

https://www.sott.net/article/348567-Curious-coincidence-Did-Theresa-May-time-her-snap-election-to-limit-the-damage-of-an-expenses-scandal

Seems you don't always have to wait too long these days to get a more balanced picture and understand the reasons behind our great leader's decisions.

 

[Ant22]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

I suspect this is just more The Lunatics Are Losing Control of the Asylum. Kind of like this:

Governor Tarkin: Princess Leia, before your execution, I'd like you to join me for a ceremony that will make this battle station operational. No star system will dare oppose the Emperor now.

Princess Leia Organa: The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers.

Governor Tarkin: Not after we demonstrate the capabilities of this station.

[Governor Tarkin then launches a MOAB that explodes (relatively uselessly) in the desert...]

Good one Scottie!!

This tickles me a bit :)

They're counting on the 'reality' they've created - the one where 'Labour is in disarray' and 'Corbyn is unelectable'. But that 'reality' May collide with actual reality come June.

I was surprised by the timing and thought it may be to play on Labour's weakness at this time. I hope that the realities do collide and they get the Suprise of their life. Then just saw the article below on Sott.

https://www.sott.net/article/348567-Curious-coincidence-Did-Theresa-May-time-her-snap-election-to-limit-the-damage-of-an-expenses-scandal

Seems you don't always have to wait too long these days to get a more balanced picture and understand the reasons behind our great leader's decisions.

I must say I fail to grasp the logic behind it: wouldn't announcing elections "to cover up the expenses scandal" be shooting themselves in the foot? Surely a scandal may influence the result of the vote in a way that isn't favourable for them. Especially voters who have gone from being Conservative voters to being 'on the fence' about the party may consider other options. For example, Clinton's email scandal was revealed shortly before the election to drive voters away from her, no?

On a different note I came across an article saying that "British pound hits 10wk high as May calls for early election"

https://www.rt.com/business/385162-pound-may-election-brexit/

Sterling rose to the highest level since February after UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced she would seek to hold a snap general election on June 8.

The British currency had dropped by almost one percent against the US dollar ahead of May's surprise announcement. The pound jumped as she spoke.

Before to the speech, the British currency dropped to $1.25, the lowest in a week.

As of 12:00pm GMT, sterling rose 0.84 percent to $1.2675, hitting a two-and-a-half month high against the US dollar.

Ten-year British government bond yields rose slightly as May spoke.

Britain's blue-chip index FTSE-100 is 1.76 percent in the red.

The FTSE 250 index, which represents the 101st to the 350th largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, was down one percent.

"The market reaction was extremely volatile on the back of this event. The currency recovered all the losses while she was making her speech,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK told Business Insider.

The pound is still more than 15 percent down since the Brexit referendum in June 2016, when it was trading at $1.50.

"The initial selloff in the pound was likely a bit of nervousness that Theresa May could be about to resign, once that fear was put to bed we have seen the pound surge to fresh highs above 1.2600, the highest level since early February...Pound traders obviously see PM May as a stabilizing force," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index Direct.

 

[Alada]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

I was surprised by the timing and thought it may be to play on Labour's weakness at this time. I hope that the realities do collide and they get the Suprise of their life. Then just saw the article below on Sott.

https://www.sott.net/article/348567-Curious-coincidence-Did-Theresa-May-time-her-snap-election-to-limit-the-damage-of-an-expenses-scandal

Seems you don't always have to wait too long these days to get a more balanced picture and understand the reasons behind our great leader's decisions.

I must say I fail to grasp the logic behind it: wouldn't announcing elections "to cover up the expenses scandal" be shooting themselves in the foot? Surely a scandal may influence the result of the vote in a way that isn't favourable for them. Especially voters who have gone from being Conservative voters to being 'on the fence' about the party may consider other options. For example, Clinton's email scandal was revealed shortly before the election to drive voters away from her, no?

The election expenses scandal looks very likely as an answer to "why now?" If you imagine the position of there being a progressive stream of prosecutions, publicity, possibly multiple by-elections triggered over a period of months, it would make her position very weak both at home (reduced majority, which is already slim), and abroad where her credibility will slide further on the back of it. They want to appear strong and make the other problem go away.

Amber Rudd was on channel 4 news yesterday and pitched her response to the election expenses scandal in a very "doesn’t matter" way, that they would just pay whatever fines were due and move on – no problem! That’s the way they would rather have it, then everyone forgets. Not a long drawn out process that would stick in the voters mind. That’s my tuppence anyway.

 

[Ant22]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

(...) The election expenses scandal looks very likely as an answer to "why now?" If you imagine the position of there being a progressive stream of prosecutions, publicity, possibly multiple by-elections triggered over a period of months, it would make her position very weak both at home (reduced majority, which is already slim), and abroad where her credibility will slide further on the back of it. They want to appear strong and make the other problem go away.

Amber Rudd was on channel 4 news yesterday and pitched her response to the election expenses scandal in a very "doesn’t matter" way, that they would just pay whatever fines were due and move on – no problem! That’s the way they would rather have it, then everyone forgets. Not a long drawn out process that would stick in the voters mind. That’s my tuppence anyway.

That makes sense Alada, thank you for clarifying this for me :) I'm outside the UK for a holiday at the moment so I get limited information on what's going on in the UK and what is being said in the media.

 

[Thebull]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

(...) The election expenses scandal looks very likely as an answer to "why now?" If you imagine the position of there being a progressive stream of prosecutions, publicity, possibly multiple by-elections triggered over a period of months, it would make her position very weak both at home (reduced majority, which is already slim), and abroad where her credibility will slide further on the back of it. They want to appear strong and make the other problem go away.

Amber Rudd was on channel 4 news yesterday and pitched her response to the election expenses scandal in a very "doesn’t matter" way, that they would just pay whatever fines were due and move on – no problem! That’s the way they would rather have it, then everyone forgets. Not a long drawn out process that would stick in the voters mind. That’s my tuppence anyway.

That makes sense Alada, thank you for clarifying this for me :) I'm outside the UK for a holiday at the moment so I get limited information on what's going on in the UK and what is being said in the media.

I wasn't aware of the expenses situation either but it does appear there's probably been significant wrong doing which will be covered up no doubt.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/03/70000-question-what-does-conservative-party-election-expenses-scandal
From various reports I've read in it's 20 -30 mp's involved and the police have questioned some of them already. Let's see how this develops it could gain some legs. I think Alada nailed it perfectly from A Tory perspective nothing to see here just move on. Hopefully it might not be that easy to sweep away.

 

[Ant22]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

It looks like the EU wants the UK to continue to fund projects the UK agreed to fund before the Brexit vote. Brexit started with the PM resigning, now the snap elections, I guess the process of Breaxit negotiations will be a lot of "fun" to watch.

Britain will be paying billions into EU projects until 2023 – four years after it is due to sign a Brexit deal – if the European Commission gets its way.

President Jean-Claude Juncker says the commission would seek payment from Theresa May’s government to cover future spending that Britain has already committed to but will not fulfil once it is no longer a member.

“The British should know this, they know this already, that it will not be at a discount or at zero cost. The British must respect commitments they were involved in making,” he told the Belgian parliament, according to the Independent.

“So the bill will be, to put it a bit crudely, very hefty.”

Discussions are underway in Brussels to determine the size of the bill to be presented to May when she launches withdrawal talks, expected in March. There are unconfirmed reports the ‘divorce bill’ may be as much as £60 billion (US$75 billion), to be paid in instalments until 2023.

The sum would cover the UK’s share of the cost of projects and programs it previously agreed to. The contributions would help smooth the expected €10 billion-per-year (US$10.5 billion) black hole left in the EU budget by Brexit.

“The commission wants the UK to pay in instalments from the day of departure in 2019 up until 2023, which is when the financial demands of the EU’s seven-year budget cycle are at their highest,” an EU diplomatic source told the Telegraph.

Brussels is also set to tell May’s government it cannot expect to negotiate a new trade relationship with the EU until terms of the initial divorce, including how the £60 billion will be paid, have been agreed by all parties.

The Financial Times has estimated talks on the ‘exit bill’ could drag on until at least December.

The prospect of paying into the EU for so long after Brexit in order to win a favorable trade deal presents a political headache for May.

It has also raised fears in France and Germany that Britain will not honor its side of the bargain if relations subsequently sour.

The Times reports Germany is siding with Britain to stop the commission presenting a €60 billion divorce bill immediately after May begins the Brexit process. Germany would reportedly like parallel talks – with divorce negotiations and a discussion about a trade deal taking place at the same time.

The newspaper says German ministers are sensitive to the argument of their UK counterparts that a public backlash in Britain over the concept and the size of an ‘exit bill’ could derail talks before they even begin.

David Davis, Britain’s Brexit secretary, has previously said it is “not practical” for the UK to sign up to paying bills in isolation of trade talks.

Meanwhile, May plans to push for a slice of the EU’s €154 billion in assets when Britain leaves, arguing that it paid in for many years and that it deserves a share.

According to the Telegraph, there is a deep split between France, Germany and the European Commission over how to calculate what Britain owes.

The commission believes Britain should be allowed to offset its share of assets against what it owes in terms of annual budget commitments up to 2019, pension obligations and other long-term liabilities, while France and Germany reportedly object.

 

[Carl]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

This tickles me a bit :)

They're counting on the 'reality' they've created - the one where 'Labour is in disarray' and 'Corbyn is unelectable'. But that 'reality' May collide with actual reality come June.

Exactly my thoughts. They are living in a bubble yet again. We just need enough people to realise how badly they are being screwed by the elite to want to do something about it, and this number is gonna be underestimated by every poll, resource and statistic until the very end.

Trump managed it despite everything, and he's not the most likeable guy.

I will say though that Trump also had the whole alpha-male leader thing going for him ,which has a lot of unconscious power. Corbyn does not have this, and was also not pro-brexit.

 

[Alada]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

This tickles me a bit :)

They're counting on the 'reality' they've created - the one where 'Labour is in disarray' and 'Corbyn is unelectable'. But that 'reality' May collide with actual reality come June.

Exactly my thoughts. They are living in a bubble yet again. We just need enough people to realise how badly they are being screwed by the elite to want to do something about it, and this number is gonna be underestimated by every poll, resource and statistic until the very end.

Trump managed it despite everything, and he's not the most likeable guy.

I will say though that Trump also had the whole alpha-male leader thing going for him ,which has a lot of unconscious power. Corbyn does not have this, and was also not pro-brexit.

So far I see a lot of my friends on FB coming out as very anti-tory and being quite vocal. Organising and discussing already the issue of tactical voting where needs be to get the Tories out. Meanwhile the narrative being spread via tv news is that there is no chance and everyone has had enough of elections, i.e., don’t even bother. I’m getting more of a "I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore vibe beginning to grow" (that would be good to post again soon thinking about it!)

We just need to keep plugging away with the social proof to help things along as best we can. :D

 

[Carl]

Re: Brexit wins, UK to leave the EU

This tickles me a bit :)

They're counting on the 'reality' they've created - the one where 'Labour is in disarray' and 'Corbyn is unelectable'. But that 'reality' May collide with actual reality come June.

Exactly my thoughts. They are living in a bubble yet again. We just need enough people to realise how badly they are being screwed by the elite to want to do something about it, and this number is gonna be underestimated by every poll, resource and statistic until the very end.

Trump managed it despite everything, and he's not the most likeable guy.

I will say though that Trump also had the whole alpha-male leader thing going for him ,which has a lot of unconscious power. Corbyn does not have this, and was also not pro-brexit.

So far I see a lot of my friends on FB coming out as very anti-tory and being quite vocal. Organising and discussing already the issue of tactical voting where needs be to get the Tories out. Meanwhile the narrative being spread via tv news is that there is no chance and everyone has had enough of elections, i.e., don’t even bother. I’m getting more of a "I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore vibe beginning to grow" (that would be good to post again soon thinking about it!)

We just need to keep plugging away with the social proof to help things along as best we can. :D

Yes, I do feel another 'f*** you' vote coming. And this could actually be a more productive one than the Brexit and Trump votes.