Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

[Evan]

Any possibility of someone creating a Prig thread and moving the speculation over there? It seems to be 90% of the content here now. Just saying’. This is after all the Russia Donbass Ukraine thread, and Prig’s not really been on topic since being sent to Belarus (or perhaps Mali).

I understand why it lands here. I just find it becoming a distraction. For a few days sure, it’s to be expected. But it’s becoming increasingly dominant. There have literally only been three posts in the last pages that weren’t about Prig: Ryan’s and Thorbiorn’s. Oh and one other saying that the Prig business has become tiresome. I think most of us probably share that feeling to some degree, which is why I decided to stick my neck in and suggest a separate thread. Especially if you guys want to proceed with weighing Putin’s soul against the lives of the pilots he might (but probably didn’t) have ended, et al ad nauseum.

 

[Joe]

that's why the possibility of him directly ordering this specific mode of removing Prigozhin (as was presented before) doesn't look plausible. But it doesn't mean that the same couldn't be achieved by him being aware of the information and not actively stopping it from happening. This would be more congruent with his style.

That's pretty much my take at this point. But who carried out the act? That's the real question, that would reveal a bit more about the ramified power structure in Russia.

 

[Adobe]

EU states issue Wagner ultimatum to Belarus ​

Poland and the Baltic countries have demanded that Minsk expel the Russian private military company

“If there is a critical incident, regardless of whether it is at the Polish or Lithuanian border, we will retaliate immediately. All border crossings that have been opened so far will be closed,” Kaminski stated. He branded the Wagner Group an “extremely dangerous” yet “demoralized” force, which he claimed was “capable of anything.”

We demand from the authorities in Minsk that the Wagner Group immediately leaves the territory of Belarus and that illegal migrants immediately leave the border area and are sent back to their home countries.

EU states issue Wagner ultimatum to Belarus

Poland and the Baltic states have demanded that Belarus expel the Wagner Group, threatening to seal their borders

www.rt.com

 

[Joe]

Also, I think people are making too much of the removal of Prigozhin and co. as the 'heads' of Wagner. Wagner does not cease to become an effective military force simply because a few of the leaders are gone. They can and will be easily replaced (already are most likely), and their work in Africa etc. will continue, but now under more strict control of and direction from the Kremlin. This is global geopolitics, not just a personal larp for profit in various countries.

 

[thorbiorn]

I listened to the daily report from the Military Summary. Ukrainian forces have moved into Robotyne, but they still need to capture more land to really make use of the position. Also the advantage UAF have now in the location needs to be used by the beginning of autumn befoer wet weather comes.

Autumn mobilizations in Russia?
In the video, he talks about another wave of mobilization in Russia coming at the end of September. Sure, it was published by the Ukrainian armed forces, and it may have propaganda value for them, but it may also be true. The analyst gives several reasons why he thinks it is needed, see video time link. While there is no doubt that the Ukrainians have suffered losses, so have the Russians, less but still. In some areas, the drones work as well for the Ukrainians as they do for the Russians, occasionally even better. Air superiority now has a parallel in drone superiority. He thinks that Ukraine can raise another 200,000 -300,000 by next year. This of course has to be answered by Russia, to some extent.

The war could last longer than we would expect. I don't know if you saw the clip, but in the beginning of August there was a scene from the Dragon Boat sailing competition in Thailand, where the Ukrainian team completed the 2000 meters, but the boat was under water the last part of the way. They would need to maintain their balance to do that

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689573300597600256

 

[Possibility of Being]

EU states issue Wagner ultimatum to Belarus ​

Poland and the Baltic countries have demanded that Minsk expel the Russian private military company

“If there is a critical incident, regardless of whether it is at the Polish or Lithuanian border, we will retaliate immediately. All border crossings that have been opened so far will be closed,” Kaminski stated. He branded the Wagner Group an “extremely dangerous” yet “demoralized” force, which he claimed was “capable of anything.”

We demand from the authorities in Minsk that the Wagner Group immediately leaves the territory of Belarus and that illegal migrants immediately leave the border area and are sent back to their home countries.

EU states issue Wagner ultimatum to Belarus

Poland and the Baltic states have demanded that Belarus expel the Wagner Group, threatening to seal their borders

www.rt.com

Belarus should answer with similar ultimatum and demand that EU states east of Germany expel NATO troops who are way more dangerous, demoralized and 'capable of anything' than Wagner. Immediately.
Half-joking.

 

[thorbiorn]

Belarus should answer with similar ultimatum and demand that EU states east of Germany expel NATO troops who are way more dangerous, demoralized and 'capable of anything' than Wagner. Immediately.
Half-joking.

Well, others think the same: DD Geopolitics wrote after the following picture and text:

It brings the legitimate question…What if the government of Belarus demands that NATO and US military leave these countries immediately?…

Though officially, they also name migrants,as a threat.

Poland and the Baltic states called on the President of Belarus to expel Russian mercenaries from the country and agreed on a plan for a possible border closure in response to the escalation of tensions - Bloomberg

In the event of an armed incident or an organized influx of migrants across the border, Poland and the Baltic countries - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - will coordinate actions to close the border with Belarus, the four states agreed on Monday in Warsaw.

They have warned of the threat posed by Wagner mercenaries, even after the death this month of the group's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Migrants from Belarus could be Russians and Belarusians too. However, I did not understand why the Estonians and Latvians were needed in Warsaw, since they do not have a border with Belarus. They must be very afraid, also, of the ghost of Prigozhin.

 

[Possibility of Being]

Lukashenko repling a Ukrainian journalist:

That's from a long (1h30) and insightful interview with Lukashenko made by Diana Panchenko, a well-known Ukrainian journalist and NewsOne TV presenter from 2015 to 2021 when the channel got banned after the Ukrainian president's decree.

The interview took place on 16 Aug. Now it's available with English (below) and Polish onscreen transcriptions. Highly recommended. According to Panchenko, in less than 3h there was already about 0.5M views, then YT started reducing the numbers, nevertheless in one day it grew to about 1M. Panchenko posted her comment on Tg, transl.:

I have communicated with all the Presidents of Ukraine. I have watched hundreds of interviews with politicians of different calibre from all over the world.

I say confidently: Lukashenko is a unique person.

When he became president, Ukraine was a country of hopes.
And Belarus did not have even a fraction of the Ukrainian potential.

30 years next to Ukraine.
Between Russia and the NATO bloc.

Now - we have lost part of the territories, 30 million population, access to one of the seas.

At the same time, Belarus' GDP per capita is 2 times higher than ours. There is order in the country, and most importantly - peace.

And all this was happening before his eyes. Of course, I asked him WHY this happened.

Time stamps copied from YT:

00:00 — Beginning;
01:07 — Was Ukraine the first to prepare an attack? Lukashenko's opinion;
05:22 — Why Belarus is accused of contributing to the start of the war;
06:59 — Elections in Ukraine. Why Poroshenko refused from help of Lukashenko and Putin;
10:34 — What did the presidents of Belarus and Russia argue about?;
12:43 — "I LOVE UKRAINE BEYOND MEASURE!";
14:10 - No one thought to subdue, enslave, deprive Ukraine of independence;
15:52 - Lukashenko: Putin did not go crazy, that's 100%;
19:39 — When the President of Belarus first learned about the SMO;
21:05 - Did Zelensky defend Kiev? Why the Russians withdrew;
24:26 — Would a war start if Poroshenko were the president of Ukraine?
29:00 - Lukashenko predicts Ukraine to disappear as a state, if it doesn't stop now;
33:57 — RUSSIA️UKRAINE. Which side needs negotiations now?
36:12 — Who will win the next presidential election in Ukraine?
38:34 — Negotiations must begin without preconditions;
43:08 - The goals of the SMO have already been completed. Opinion of the Belarusian leader;
44:48 — Belarus should be involved in the negotiation process;
50:38 — If Ukraine NEVER crosses the border of Belarus, we will NEVER participate in this hot war;
51:57 - Western Ukraine will go to Poland - yes or no?;
53:49 - Strikes against the Baltic States or Poland could be launched from the territory of Belarus;
55:48 - If the red line is crossed, we will strike;
56:53 — War with NATO must be avoided. There are no reasons for starting it;
58:17 — Did the power in Russia get weaker after the events with PMC "Wagner" and Prigozhin? Lukashenko places accents;
01:01:57 — "Will the war end after the overthrow of Putin?" Myths of Ukrainian propaganda;
01:03:30 — "Volodya, there is a war going on in your country." Alexander Lukashenko on what to tell Zelensky;
01:04:34 — It all started when they began to LOOT UKRAINE;
01:09:00 - Head of State on hatred of money;
01:10:20 — What will happen to Belarus without Lukashenko;
01:13:38 — "I haven't made any decisions, honestly." About why elections are not the main thing now;
01:14:44 — Who, after Putin, will continue the path of Russia's development?;
01:15:44 — For Ukrainians, the show is more important than bread. Is this possible in Belarus?;
01:18:12 — How internet fakes work;
01:21:03 — "If you conquer other people's brains, then you will win any war in the future";
01:24:16 — Advice to Ukrainians from the President of Belarus;
01:29:00 — Ukraine cannot be a beggar in such a land, but they must take the first steps! And the first step is to end the war.

 

[Possibility of Being]

Migrants from Belarus could be Russians and Belarusians too. However, I did not understand why the Estonians and Latvians were needed in Warsaw, since they do not have a border with Belarus. They must be very afraid, also, of the ghost of Prigozhin.

Those migrants crossing the Belarus-Polish border in huge numbers were mostly from the ME. In the interview I posted above, Lukashenko commented on that. In short, he said that they started crossing Belarus only because Ukraine became too dangerous and hard to travel through (since Feb 2022). And after Poland imposed sanctions on Belarus even before the rest of EU did, he didn't feel like helping Poland with stopping that inflow. BTW, Latvia does have a border with Belarus. But I don't think there have been migrant problems in the Baltic states. They just agreed to mimic Poland's measures so to increase the pression on Belarus. All idiots.

EDIT: Sorry it was during Lukashenko's press meeting. Video here, in Russian, that part starts at 22:00

 

[Michael B-C]

Alexander Mercouris covers a rather revealing interview Zelensky has given to RADA TV in Ukraine.

Apparent key takeaways:

• Ukrainians must prepare for a long war - but only if we start minimizing losses and preserving fighting capacity...
• All thought of long range strikes within Russia or large scale intrusions are simply not viable...
• Compares the future war to Israel's approach to self defense - 'it is possible to live like that'...
• Claims he is dramatically increasing the domestic MIC so as to become self sufficient in arms production before long...
• He effectively admits that the war effort will have to move to an entrenched defensive approach...

This goes along with all the chatter that Ukraine is moving towards making another mobilization on the scale of an additional 2-300,000 men (training??? equipment????)

Meanwhile the Ukraine parliament prepares to pass a law to outlaw any negotiations with Russia that involves any loss of territory...

Mercouris discusses this all hints at a change in 'narrative' building on the back of the failing offensive, with Zelensky appearing to be preparing the ground for Ukrainian public opinion to deal with the reality check that Western resources are fast on the wain whilst at the same time giving them reassurances that the state will pick up the slack. Given the scale of dependency, the fast dwindling supplies (particularly of artillery shells), the excessive wastage of resources Ukraine has spent on this stalled offensive, and the scale of ongoing Russian missile and drone degradation of Ukraine's domestic industrial and logistical base, this seems more like copium than a deliverable change in strategy. Mercouris compares this desperation to the last days of Hitler's regime in early 1945 as they called up old men and teenagers whilst promising via nightly broadcasts to the nation that weapons supplies were increasing, that victory was still just around the corner if only the national will prevailed - and then suddenly collapse happened.

Mecouris suspects a 'stab in the back' myth by the West (and visa versa) is fast building. The dwindling supply of 155mm shells alone may soon become so critical that in and of itself - let alone the blame game, a growing political pull back by the US and the nightly Russian missile barrage - may in the end bring this horror to an end sooner than one might anticipate.

Apparently Zelkensky has just bought himself another large pad this time in Egypt. If anyone was to fake his own death and vanish the Ukrainian president has to be high on that list...

 

[f1esk]

Analytics from the Center for Conceptual Technologies (Russia) on events related to PMC Wagner and Prigozhin:

The event with Prigozhin is a continuation of the conspiracy against Putin and Russia, which took place on June 23-24, 2023, when the PMC Wagner was used in the dark for a rebellion.

Historical analogy:
In 1918, there was a rebellion by Sorokin (commander of the 11th Red Army, northern Caucasus).
When the rebellion was crushed, Stalin demanded that Sorokin be delivered safe and sound for interrogation.
But one of the commanders of the regiments of the Red Army shot Sorokin and all the tails were cut off.
Later it became known that MI6 was behind the Sorokin rebellion.

Immediately after the so-called rebellion in Russia, the traitors immediately started yelling about killing/shooting Prigozhin and disbanding the PMC.
Putin once again said that they were patriots, they were simply framed for rebellion under the pretext of liberating Moscow from traitors.

And all in order to destroy Russia's instrument for conducting global politics. The purpose of the rebellion was to eliminate this tool of PMC Wagner.

When did the Soviet Union collapse? When he began to leave everywhere, to leave everyone. Then, with the departure of the Soviet Union structures, all the problems from the periphery came to the Soviet Union.

So the task was that the problems would come to Russia, so that Russia would not solve them at a distant approach. Did not create third world support for itself. So that this 3rd world remains a raw material appendage of the West.

Prigozhin, one way or another, was a carrier of information. And while Prigozhin was freaking out, raging, offended by Putin, etc. he was safe for the organizers of the rebellion. And there was an opportunity to use Wagner in rebellion, blindly.

And when Prigozhin began to calm down, he became objectionable to the organizers of the rebellion - he knows too much.

Well, they removed it. And the British media immediately named the culprit - Putin.
They could remove it anywhere, in Africa, for example. But it was necessary right here in Russia. What would be here in Russia to arouse hatred for Putin among the people and move the country to revolt.
To blow up the country from the inside. And now the whole podpindosnaya pro-Western garbage dump in Russia screamed that Putin was a murderer and that he needed to be overthrown.

But Putin did not say that Wagner were traitors - this was said by the Western media.
Putin said that Wagner was deceived. He immediately met with the Wagner commanders and proposed solutions. Putin met with Prigogine, there was no persecution.

Well, now the organizers of the rebellion have eliminated him. And it was necessary to eliminate it in such a way as to inflict damage on Putin and Russia and deprive Russia of an instrument for conducting foreign policy (PMC Wagner).

 

[KJS]

Belarus should answer with similar ultimatum and demand that EU states east of Germany expel NATO troops who are way more dangerous, demoralized and 'capable of anything' than Wagner. Immediately.
Half-joking.

I'm fairly sure that this is related to the elections that will be happening in the Fall in Poland. There's a high degree of "learned helplessness" in Polish society, and they are exploiting this mechanism by providing a constant state of danger. In this way, the ruling party is strengthening their electorate, because there's a known relationship with "learned helplessness" and change avoidance. Just to let other forum members know why Poland's officials are trying to "invent" new problems. This or a "state of emergency" at the border will allow for to postponement of the elections if the polls are unfavorable...

 

[thorbiorn]

Analytics from the Center for Conceptual Technologies (Russia) on events related to PMC Wagner and Prigozhin:

Would it have been possible to post a link too? I translated the title back to Russian and search but found nothing. This however does not mean it was all in vain. Here are a couple of translated excerpts with links. I don't know if Ishchenko is right, I would say it is a possibility, but his story is helpful for the Government in case it was an internal actor.

Who benefited from the death of the head of Wagner PMC Prigozhin
Author: PAVEL SHISHKIN, Editor
29.08.2023 08:56
Political scientist Ishchenko told who benefits from Prigozhin's death
Political scientist, historian, and former Ukrainian diplomat Rostislav Ishchenko, talking with Voyenye delo, commented on the murder of Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner PMC. [...]

“He could only be used as a “dead hero” and this was used by the enemies of Russia. They needed to do this before Prigogine was completely forgotten. That's why everything somehow coincided suspiciously. Suddenly, Prigozhin, after a two-month silence, leaves Africa, and the next day his plane explodes in the air. And then everything is clear. In the West, they began to talk about the crash of the plane almost before the wreckage fell to the ground. This, in my opinion, was only with the Malaysian flight MH-17, shot down over the DPR in July 2014. He was still flying, and people were already being buried in the West. The speed and volume of the reaction in the West indicates that they were waiting for this. Comments are also expected: Biden said that Putin is to blame for everything that happens in Russia. The reaction is expected and, apparently, prepared in advance. Thus, they tried to use Prigozhin against Russia and used it in this way, because it was already impossible in another way, ”
explains Ishchenko.
[....]

About the plane, one article wrote, if translated:

What was happening in the sky
The plane abruptly changed its trajectory, rose a thousand meters, and plunged down like a corkscrew-without a wing or stabilizer. Parts of the plane were torn off in the explosion. The version is as follows: the pilot heard an explosion behind him and jerked the steering wheel sharply towards him. The wing fell off, the stabilizer disconnected. Passengers lost consciousness, maybe from injuries, or a pressure drop and temperature during depressurization.

Experts put forward the opinion that explosives could be in the cabin, in the place of attachment of the wing, under the seat on the right side. The mechanism is activated remotely.

If the pilot made a very abrupt manoeuvre with the plane, could the wing break off? Could it rise 1000 meters without one of the wings?
The future of Wagner

Also, I think people are making too much of the removal of Prigozhin and co. as the 'heads' of Wagner. Wagner does not cease to become an effective military force simply because a few of the leaders are gone. They can and will be easily replaced (already are most likely), and their work in Africa etc. will continue, but now under more strict control of and direction from the Kremlin. This is global geopolitics, not just a personal larp for profit in various countries.

There are rumours: Anton Elizarov could become the new head of PMC 'Wagner' see also here, which speaks of the same person, but under his call sign, Lotos

The name of the new head of PMC 'Wagner' will be announced this week

According to the source of the Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, Evgeny Prigozhin, a well-known Russian businessman and head of Wagner PMC, in the past developed a detailed instruction with algorithms of actions for the company in case of various scenarios. Among other options, they considered the possibility of eliminating the entire top of the private military company, including Prigozhin, Dmitry Utkin and Valery Chekalov. According to these algorithms, after confirming the death of the leaders of PMCs, acting head becomes the commander with the call sign 'Lotus'.

If this information is correct, it is expected that 'Lotos' can be officially presented immediately after Prigozhin's funeral. This could be a key moment for PMC Wagner, changing both the internal structure and the company's strategic plans.

The source also claims that when the bulk of the PMC fighters left Belarus, the commanders were informed that the vacation would last 3 weeks, after which most of the group would go to Africa. However, due to the recent disaster, all of these plans are now in jeopardy.

And while they wait for the funeral, which might be delayed, there are other intentions:

PMC 'Wagner' will be liquidated
Viktor Sobolev, a member of the State Duma Defense Committee, expressed his opinion about the future of the Wagner Group, a private military company. According to him, this formation should be disbanded, as it is 'an illegal armed formation.' Sobolev argues that the activities of 'Wagner' could lead to 'the brink of civil war.'

But Viktor Sobolev said that already in May:

"The Wagner PMCs and its volunteers should come under the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, then there will be no problems with supplies," State Duma Deputy Viktor Sobolev said. "In principle, we should not have these private military campaigns. Everyone must obey a single command. Everything should be centralized," the Lieutenant General said.

Let us see what happens.

 

[f1esk]

Would it have been possible to post a link too? I translated the title back to Russian and search but found nothing.

Unfortunately, the link is only to YouTube, the video is in Russian, you can set up subtitles.

 

[Nević Nenad]

@thorbiorn.

If the pilot made a very abrupt manoeuvre with the plane, could the wing break off? Could it rise 1000 meters without one of the wings?

1. No. Only if wing is damaged.

2. Not that type of the plane. Some heavy fighter in type of F15 or some Mig maybe could, because of the stronger engines and thrust, but that type no.