Otra posibilidad es que los iraníes entendieran que es casi un hecho que Estados Unidos los atacará a continuación, por lo tanto necesitan guardar sus municiones para la ocasión.
Simplicius has published an article in which this is his conclusion: Iran remains calm despite everything, and perhaps that's why it insists on maintaining nuclear silence; it doesn't feel cornered yet:
There is
one thing to explain it, which takes us to the main point of this article. Israel clearly expected a very swift capitulation by Iran via a series of debilitating decapitation strikes which only partially succeeded. When that didn’t happen, and when Iran began raining down retaliatory blows, the Israeli-led bloc panicked and began to exert tremendous pressure on Trump to save the ‘chosen’ kingdom.
Part of it has to do with Israel not being equipped for long, drawn-out attritional warfare:
Israel needed a quick operation to disable Iran, and was likely counting on the US to enter the war. But this should be tempered with the fact that Israel does claim they have prepared for the potential of a long-running conflict, but presumably only under the total aegis of the US and the West completely backstopping them in every facet, particularly weapons, fuel, etc.
So what did Iran do? Iran, it appears, has chosen a similar strategy to Russia—which is to deliberately slow the conflict down and stretch Israel’s resources. Israel expected Iran to “splurge” and launch its entire complement of missiles not only to immediately exhaust itself, but also to invite a huge ‘tragedy’ that can be used to incite the US’ entry into the war. Instead, Iran chose to bleed Israel dry slowly with the ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy developed by Russia against the Atlanticist empire in Ukraine.
Thus, Iran is now sending small volleys of missiles daily to grind down Israel’s social, economic, and political resources.
Why has Iran chosen this strategy? Because it’s the only one with a chance of success, as giving Israel a massive “shock and awe” campaign would merely play into its hands and give the Israelis exactly what they were looking for. One report indicated that Israel had prepared for 5,000+ Israeli casualties from the Iranian strikes and clearly did not expect Iran to instead choose a slow-broil method:
You'll excuse me, Simplicius, but I'm thinking of leaving your complete analysis here for my comrades since it's a paid one and many won't be able to read it. Is that possible
@Windmill knight ?
I'd say it's probably because if Iran had revealed it had developed nuclear weapons, many other countries might had felt compelled to put pressure on them to cancel the program and impose sanctions etc. that Iran may not have been able to withstand. So they decided that, on balance, they had to keep it secret. In doing so, the only real pressure came from the US and Israel, with other countries who secretly supported Iran and saw its nukes as a potential strategic advantage to them being able to support Iran's plausible deniability.
Or certainly, but I wanted to emphasize that although it may have been a mistake, making a revelation at this time, in a certain way it is still possible, although they will surely be showered with sanctions, now they are in a much better position and enjoyed a good time without economic limitations so it would be feasible to make the revelation now and ensure a possible de-escalation, but even so they have not done it yet because they think that perhaps they still have options to negotiate or they trust that they could generate certain defeats that put an end to the conflict and make them able to continue being relatively prosperous without the sanctions... a dangerous game, but one that they are surely not afraid to play as it seems.
You'll love his other explanation / cope / wishful thinking - Israel wants US and Iran to both destroy each other because that then leaves Israel as the one true king of the ME.
It may be pure copium, but he is not mistaken in saying that this is the copium of the Zionists.
Regarding Trump, hmm, I don't think he's sick or anything like that. He's simply overwhelmed by the situation and is therefore boasting and shouting more than usual, which makes him look very bad and seem delusional. The fact that neither side wants to give in, and due to his lack of a broader vision of the matter and belief in his own and the US's power, only makes him raise his voice even more as the pressure increases without anything changing. He must really instinctively fear that all this will ruin him in every way (not just his ego and credibility, but that it could lead to something truly terrible for the world and his country). That's why he complained the other day that he was having a bad time and we should be more grateful to him.
As Simplicius suggested, I think a good way out, at least for the moment, would be to negotiate with Iran, without Israel knowing about a fake attack on the nuclear facilities to save face. Of course, this wouldn't work, no matter how much or how little, because I doubt Israel wouldn't find out. They can't allow it. Even if they say yes, they'll find a way to continue once again. That's Trump's problem: Israel—the deep state—who, despite appearances and flattery, hates him and can't stop because it's now or never. They feel the pressure that this window is their last chance, or afterward, it will be almost impossible for them to achieve their Zionist ambitions: control of the Middle East through the disintegration of Iran, the elimination of Semitic genes, and taking over portals. All of these failures would give way to a multipolar world from which there's no escape. Trump may hate certain individuals in Israel and understand their game to a certain extent, but he must largely ignore what a psychopath disguised with a mask of sanity is. Israel behaves terribly at the state level, but the people themselves must be preserved at all costs. Many of us here know the extent of the religious programming we had to get rid of. It's obvious that Trump has now embraced it even more strongly.
He may be fantasizing that Iran really has a higher degree of evil and that he has to eliminate that threat to God's people. But even so, of course, I believe that his vision of Iran should not be completely dehumanizing. As if all of the above were not enough, Israel is a part of the USA; it simply cannot be dispensed with in terms of power, which is partly what Trump seeks for his country... that's why Israel is part of the United States first. Trump believes he can solve everything with his negotiating skills, although it is his advantage, it is also his biggest problem in the long term since he is flexible enough with the types who handle nefarious agendas of which he does not glimpse their true scope, so they are not destroyed and only look for another way to manifest, as they are increasingly desperate to complete these agendas, they place Trump in increasingly impossible positions, it is very much appreciated that Donald delays them, yes, that is already a lot because making them go slower takes away power in front of other poles in the world, the only drawback is that this request for power, as we said, makes them resort to more desperate measures (well, partly because it exposes them), I see it likely that if Trump does not give in, they will try to carry out cyberattacks and shameful attacks that force him to act, he may survive for a while longer if they try to assassinate him too, but as long as he does not accept that the United States cannot continue to be the sole leader of the world and that this country must undergo a series of changes that disintegrate the deep state and make it coexist with the other poles, it will not free the United States from its fateful destiny, in fact it will only make psychopaths try to make our lives more miserable given their loss of power and make the northern country more unviable for life.
I do not judge him for what he decides to do because he is being deceived and subtly directed in this situation which is a huge swamp that only changes shape and adapts to what Trump does, I still believe that he can fight a little more and not give up, his ego ironically would help him ... but at a certain point he could be cornered and decide to break his promises in pursuit of a greater subjective good that he perceives .... it is not that it is the end for the rest of the world either, but on the contrary it will probably promote more balance for the rest while the USA and its people have to deal with psychopathy and its entropy.
