European suicide: why everything could collapse within 5 years
Given the economic and geopolitical situation in Europe, one can reasonably estimate the probability of the European Union disappearing by the end of 2028 at 75%, as Erik Dale does in
a recent Twitter thread .
His reasoning, which is sound, deserves to be shared. Whether one likes this Union or not is irrelevant; this is as clear-sighted an assessment as possible, the only one that allows us to understand what is happening and where we are headed.
It is clear that France is bankrupt, Germany is tired of paying, the ECB is running out of ammunition, the shock of tariffs imposed by Trump is approaching, and the current political landscape, both on the right and on the left, is blocking any solution.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone has now entered a 3- to 5-year countdown towards a break, the timeline of which could be outlined as follows:
- Between now and the first quarter of 2026, we can expect French deficits of 6.5% to 7% and widening spreads in borrowing rates (on government bonds) compared to Germany exceeding 150 basis points. Inevitably, the ECB will have to quietly resume buying bonds.
- From spring 2026 onwards, it is not implausible to imagine early elections in France leading to total parliamentary chaos. The yields on French 10-year OATs will then test the 4 to 5% level.
- Summer 2026 arrives, and with it, Trump's tariffs hit hard (resulting in a 1.5% loss of GDP in the Eurozone). Germany, already in dire straits, plunges into a full-blown recession. Without any trouble, the AfD becomes the leading party in the eastern states.
- Autumn 2026 brings nothing good. The ECB's balance sheet shows over €10 trillion in debt, prompting Germany to threaten to leave the Eurosystem or establish a parallel accounting system. The revolt of the Northern European Member States becomes public.
- Sometime in 2027, or 2028 at the latest, on an unremarkable, gray weekend, TARGET2 implodes. Southern European banks suffer a bank run, forcing their closure and capital controls by the ECB. The euro fractures into two blocs (south/north)... or disappears in the face of the resulting problems.
At this point, the European Union may still exist on paper, but the single currency has well and truly disappeared. The European institutions have managed the feat of transforming an economic union into a pact of collective suicide.
And it is indeed the euro that will be the trigger that will cause the Union to explode. Forcing 20 extremely different economies to share a single currency and a single interest rate set by the central bank, this bold financial tinkering could not last indefinitely.
And the euro, which here only plays the role of a fuse, will be burned by France: with 115% debt, permanent deficits exceeding 5%, four Prime Ministers in 12 months, it has demonstrated its inability to reduce its spending without provoking riots.
But if the ECB lets France default, the euro's credibility will collapse overnight. The next domino will fall: Italy (with a real debt exceeding 120%) will either collapse in turn or hastily leave the euro, aided by Meloni's current preparations—discreet but shrewd, with his "Good Ordinary Treasury Men"—in this maneuver. And if the ECB prints money to bail them out, German savers will be robbed, leading to a mutiny at the Bundesbank and an exit from the "northern bloc." Saving the South ruins the North; abandoning the South kills the euro. The Union has built a machine where every solution is a disaster.
Other factors make the situation even more critical.
By replacing cheap Russian gas with overpriced American LNG, Europe has orchestrated its own deindustrialization. Germany isn't just going through a rough patch; it's dismantling its industrial heritage (chemicals, steel) in real time. This deindustrialization isn't a risk;
it's happening right now .
– The crazy directives and regulations are piling up. The European Union no longer produces power, it produces standards in exchange for a clear conscience: Green Deal and green madness at every level, castrating AI Act, 1444 mandatory “ESG” points… Europe regulates what it no longer knows how to invent and destroys its agriculture with bans and incoherent free trade agreements.
– The population is collapsing. The continent is turning into a gigantic open-air retirement home. Brains are fleeing to the USA or Asia, leaving behind a population that is halved every 40 years. A civilization without youth is a civilization without a future.
– Uncontrolled mass immigration has created irreversible societal fractures and endemic insecurity. It fuels a violent political division between the people who reject it (in the East) and the elites who impose it (in the West), paving the way for "populist" parties throughout Europe: Vox in Spain, AfD in Germany, RN in France, Chega in Portugal, PVV/FvD in the Netherlands, and Meloni in power in Italy.
The only coordinated European response has been… censorship of social media, with the DSA and fines levied on Musk. When the ship is sinking, the orchestra stops playing; the captain simply forbids the passengers from shouting.
The vicious circle is perfect: political paralysis fuels market distrust, which will trigger the Euro crisis, which will cause the final explosion.
Correcting the situation would require – besides a very unlikely awakening of awareness at the level of European leaders – a complete halt to green policies, the abolition of legislation which has become far too complex, a total halt to immigration and mass expulsions starting with the most dangerous elements (OQTF in France).
Unfortunately, just as in France where profound reforms will only be considered too late, the questioning of these suicidal policies will only be considered once the admission of failure is impossible to camouflage despite the omnipresent censorship and propaganda, revolutions being triggered when it is more costly to maintain the lie than to admit the truth.
The only way out for European leaders is to distract the people. And what better way to do that than a war, don't you think?
