Awareness about cyclical nature of catastrophes among scientist

[Regulattor]

It is more evident that there are noticeable increase in scientific research that confirms cyclic nature of catastrophes hitting Earth. This article surely provides a lot of new info about devastating potential of overdue earthquake on NW Pacific coast, as well as it's catastrophic consequences in aftermath.

_http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

To see the full scale of the devastation when that tsunami recedes, you would need to be in the international space station. The inundation zone will be scoured of structures from California to Canada. The earthquake will have wrought its worst havoc west of the Cascades but caused damage as far away as Sacramento, California

 

[Laura]

Great article. This part is scary:

Thanks to that work, we now know that the Pacific Northwest has experienced forty-one subduction-zone earthquakes in the past ten thousand years. If you divide ten thousand by forty-one, you get two hundred and forty-three, which is Cascadia’s recurrence interval: the average amount of time that elapses between earthquakes. That timespan is dangerous both because it is too long—long enough for us to unwittingly build an entire civilization on top of our continent’s worst fault line—and because it is not long enough. Counting from the earthquake of 1700, we are now three hundred and fifteen years into a two-hundred-and-forty-three-year cycle.

And this:

Among natural disasters, tsunamis may be the closest to being completely unsurvivable. The only likely way to outlive one is not to be there when it happens: to steer clear of the vulnerable area in the first place, or get yourself to high ground as fast as possible.

 

[Andrian]

I've read today this article on Sott correlated to the article mentioned by you Regulattor, at the end Sott editors attached a video segment from Fox News talking to a scientist(they were discussing the article published in the New Yorker newspaper), who basically confirms that yeas the next Big Earthquake will happened without doubts, the question is when? It seems it may happen in not so distant future. Very scary indeed.

 

[rs]

Great article. This part is scary:

Thanks to that work, we now know that the Pacific Northwest has experienced forty-one subduction-zone earthquakes in the past ten thousand years. If you divide ten thousand by forty-one, you get two hundred and forty-three, which is Cascadia’s recurrence interval: the average amount of time that elapses between earthquakes. That timespan is dangerous both because it is too long—long enough for us to unwittingly build an entire civilization on top of our continent’s worst fault line—and because it is not long enough. Counting from the earthquake of 1700, we are now three hundred and fifteen years into a two-hundred-and-forty-three-year cycle.

And this:

Among natural disasters, tsunamis may be the closest to being completely unsurvivable. The only likely way to outlive one is not to be there when it happens: to steer clear of the vulnerable area in the first place, or get yourself to high ground as fast as possible.

What I find the most interesting is the estimated casualties. I think the idea that there would be "tens of thousands" of casualties for an event as was described is just ridiculous. The estimate is off by at least an order of magnitude, probably two orders. I am taking into account the "prompt" casualties as well as the consequential casualties. We (both the US as well as the entire world) are not prepared in any way to service the needs of millions of displaced people - it just cannot be done. The idea that FEMA will be able to manage this in light of their management of other catastrophes of much much lower order is almost laughable if it wasn't so serious. This event, if it unfolds as described, will be "truly Biblical" in its scope, destruction and impact.

 

[Regulattor]

What I find the most interesting is the estimated casualties. I think the idea that there would be "tens of thousands" of casualties for an event as was described is just ridiculous. The estimate is off by at least an order of magnitude, probably two orders. I am taking into account the "prompt" casualties as well as the consequential casualties. We (both the US as well as the entire world) are not prepared in any way to service the needs of millions of displaced people - it just cannot be done. The idea that FEMA will be able to manage this in light of their management of other catastrophes of much much lower order is almost laughable if it wasn't so serious. This event, if it unfolds as described, will be "truly Biblical" in its scope, destruction and impact.

I agree, they didn't count in devastating effects on the other side of the ocean. Japan as well as other Pacific nations will get also a deadly blow. Potential number of casualties will exceed projected numbers for sure. And when taking in account what C's have predicted for NW Pacific (10.6 or around if I remember correctly) is by far more powerfull then predicted 9.2 earthquake. That kind of released energy can seriously alter geography of a wider region.

 

[SeekinTruth]

Yeah, the Sumatra tsunami in 2004 (?) had a couple hundred thousand casualties. If anything like what the C's have said happens in the Pacific NW, who knows what to expect - it's hard to imagine a quake of that magnitude.

 

[Laura]

Yeah, the Sumatra tsunami in 2004 (?) had a couple hundred thousand casualties. If anything like what the C's have said happens in the Pacific NW, who knows what to expect - it's hard to imagine a quake of that magnitude.

Yup. I would guesstimate hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

 

[MusicMan]

Yeah, the Sumatra tsunami in 2004 (?) had a couple hundred thousand casualties. If anything like what the C's have said happens in the Pacific NW, who knows what to expect - it's hard to imagine a quake of that magnitude.

Yup. I would guesstimate hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

An even bigger worry in the Sumatra area would be the eruption of the supervolcano at Mount Toba.
This is at least as big as Yellowstone, and the ash cloud could easily cover all of Australia.
Although the biggest population is the Sumatra/Indonesian archipelago and New Guinea, as well as Malaysia and Borneo.

_http://toba.arch.ox.ac.uk/

Who knows, it might even wake up Krakatoa.