Books like this?

monotonic

The Living Force
Hi all. I don't know if this is a good book or not but it's title describes to me the kind of book I'd like to have:

http://www.amazon.com/Why-Flip-Coin-Science-Decisions/dp/0471296457

I've been reading Caricature Of Love, and it strikes me that Cleckley had to learn somewhere how to formulate his arguments. It seems very much like a lost art to me, but a very valuable skill to have. Thoughts?
 
I don't know this book but the amazon reviews seem positive. I think a book (whether mathematical or math-free) on statistical reasoning is interresting, especially in what concerns the interpretation of diverse information we hear about from different sources. Statistics can be deceiving and knowing its language is a good thing. There are a few examples in "Thinking Fast and Slow". However, I can't say anything about this particular book unfortunately.
 
monotonic said:
I've been reading Caricature Of Love, and it strikes me that Cleckley had to learn somewhere how to formulate his arguments. It seems very much like a lost art to me, but a very valuable skill to have. Thoughts?


Cleckley uses critical thinking and logic to make his point more than statistical decision making in COL.

You may find some excerpts from Diane Halpern's "Thought and Knowledge" posted
here and here useful regarding the basics of constructing and evaluating arguments.

If learning about decision making in the face of uncertainty through the use of statistical reasoning is your goal, then the book you referenced seems useful at first glance.
 
FWIW, the author, Professor Emiritus Hal Lewis is known to the public mostly from his famous (some say, infamous) letter to the American Physical Society about his resignation from his long membership.

_http://www.examiner.com/article/hal-lewis-former-uc-santa-barbara-prof-resigns-from-aps-on-global-warming

October 9, 2010

Hal Lewis sent a scathing letter to the American Physical Society, announcing resignation from his 67-year membership in the prestigious group on issues of the Society's handling of the global warming science debate. Or lack thereof.

What is the APS?

The American Physical Society is the second largest professional association of physicists in the world, comprising more than 47,000 members. (The largest is a professional physics society in Germany.)

Who is Hal Lewis?

Professor Lewis is a physicist with a long, distinguished career of service to the physics profession and the country including Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara; Defense Science Board; DSB Study on Nuclear Winter; Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards; President’s Nuclear Safety Oversight Committee; APS Study on Nuclear Reactor Safety; JASON; USAF Scientific Advisory Board; author of two books; US Navy veteran; and now former Fellow of the American Physical Society.

Aside from those lofty credentials, it's clear to see Hal Lewis as an important person with a record of service to science and to the country.

What happened and why should we care?

Professor Lewis resigned from the APS because of its stand on global warming and its suppression of informed debate on the science.

Read Professor Lewis’s letter of resignation to the APS. While his scientifically formed views on global warming markedly differed from APS, the major reason was that he could no longer tolerate the undermining of legitimate science inquiry going on at the APS.

An honorable Fellow resigns over squashed science inquiry

Professor Lewis detailed five points of contention regarding the APS’s alignment on the so-called “consensus” around global warming. What consensus? The debate isn’t over; it’s only beginning. So said hundreds of APS members, signers of a petition that questioned APS’s conclusive positions on global warming.

Professor Lewis pointed out that despite revelations of data cooking, conspiracy to withhold information requested under the Freedom of Information Act, and conspiracy to prevent opposing research from being published, the APS continued to defend the advocates of global warming using secret committees and other shady tactics.

Follow the money

Lewis charges that money is driving all this. The APS leadership understands that substantial funds from government and other sources would evaporate the instant the global warming bubble burst. Why would the APS voluntarily remove itself from the alarmist money cycle?

A significant loss to the APS, tarnish on its scientific integrity

Well, there you pretty much have it. In essence, a once prestigious physics society has lost one of its most prestigious Fellows. Others will follow. There's a tarnish growing dark on APS's science integrity. Perhaps the APS lost its prestige long before Hal Lewis resigned.

About the development, replies and reaction to his decision as well as the letter itself you can read e.g. here:
_http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/16/hal-lewis-my-resignation-from-the-american-physical-society/
 
Possibility of Being said:
FWIW, the author, Professor Emiritus Hal Lewis is known to the public mostly from his famous (some say, infamous) letter to the American Physical Society about his resignation from his long membership.

...

About the development, replies and reaction to his decision as well as the letter itself you can read e.g. here:
_http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/16/hal-lewis-my-resignation-from-the-american-physical-society/

Interesting. His letter of resignation was recently flashbacked on SOTT here:

http://www.sott.net/article/277349-Top-scientist-resigns-from-post-admits-Global-Warming-is-a-scam
 
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