My research showed that about 40 seemingly disparate (but, according to cliodynamics, related) social indicators experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of political turmoil. My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s.
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My model tracks a number of factors. Some reflect the developments that have been noticed and extensively discussed: growing income and wealth inequality, stagnating and even declining well-being of most Americans, growing political fragmentation and governmental dysfunction. But most social scientists and political commentators tend to focus on a particular slice of the problem. It's not broadly appreciated that these developments are all interconnected. Our society is a system in which different parts affect each other, often in unexpected ways.
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Furthermore, there is another important development that has been missed by most commentators: the key role of "elite overproduction" in driving waves of political violence, both in historical societies and in our own.[...] Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class. This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions."
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The victory of Donald Trump changes nothing in this equation. The "social pump" creating new aspirants for political offices continues to operate at full strength.
[...] Cliodynamic research on past societies demonstrates that elite overproduction is by far the most important of the three main historical drivers of social instability and political violence
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[T]his is a science-based forecast, not a "prophecy". It's based on solid social science, the workings of which I have left "under the hood" in this article intended for a general audience. But the science is there. [...] Because it's a scientific theory, we also need to understand the limitations of what it can forecast. Cliodynamics is about broad social trends and deep structural causes of these developments. It did not predict that Donald Trump would become the American President in 2016. But it did predict rising social and political instability. And, unless something is done, instability will continue to rise.
