Dwarf planet 'becoming a comet' in Outer Solar System

Appollynon

Jedi Master
I found this article on the BBC very interesting as this Dwarf Planet may make an appearance in our inner solar system if it's close passage with Neptune affects its orbit. I'll do a search for more information on the object to see what I can find, but thought it may be of interest enough to post.

Article is here:
http://news(dot)bbc(dot)co(dot)uk/2/hi/science/nature/626879(dot)stm

An unusual dwarf planet discovered in the outer Solar System could be en route to becoming the brightest comet ever known.

2003 EL61 is a large, dense, rugby-ball-shaped hunk of rock with a fast rotation rate.

Professor Mike Brown has calculated that the object could be due a close encounter with the planet Neptune.

If so, Neptune's gravity could catapult it into the inner Solar System as a short-period comet.

"If you came back in two million years, EL61 could well be a comet," said Professor Brown, from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in Pasadena.

"When it becomes a comet, it will be the brightest we will ever see."

2003 EL61 is a large object; it is as big as Pluto along its longest dimension. It is one of the largest of a swarm of icy objects that inhabit a region of the outer Solar System known as the Kuiper Belt.

But it is extremely unusual: spinning on its axis every four hours, it has developed an elongated shape.

2003 EL61 is apparently composed of rock with just a thin veneer of water-ice covering its surface. Other Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) contain much more water-ice.

Professor Brown's computer simulations show that the object is on a very unstable orbit and set for a close encounter with Neptune.

The eighth planet's gravitational force could either sling the icy rock ball into the inner Solar System as a comet, out into the distant Oort Cloud region, or even into interstellar space.

Orbits of Kuiper Belt Objects tend to be very stable, but the region is thought to be a reservoir for short-period comets.

Occasionally, some of these objects must get tossed inward to become the fizzing lumps of ice and dust that criss-cross our cosmic neighbourhood.

Mike Brown and his colleagues have come up with a scenario to explain 2003 EL61's physical characteristics and behaviour.

About 4.5 billion years ago, the object that became 2003 EL61 was a ball, half composed of ice and half of rock - like Pluto - and about the same size as Pluto.

Some time early in its history, it was smacked, edge on, by another large KBO. This broke off much of 2003 EL61's icy mantle, which coalesced to form several satellites.

As expected, the satellites seem to be composed of very pure water-ice.

Professor Brown suggested that some of 2003 EL61's mantle may already have made it into the inner Solar System as cometary material.

The oblique impact also caused 2003 EL61 to spin rapidly. This rapid rotation elongated 2003 EL61 into the rugby ball shape we see today.

"It's a bit like the story of Mercury," Professor Brown explained.

"Mercury got hit by a large object early in the Solar System. It left mostly a big iron core, with a little bit of rock on the outside. This is mostly a rock core with a little bit of ice on the outside."

Mike Brown outlined details of his work during a plenary lecture at the recent American Astronomical Society meeting in Seattle.
I also found this information about the object for further reading here:

http://www(dot)gps(dot)caltech(dot)edu/~mbrown/2003EL61/

2003 EL61 is an object in the Kuiper belt, the region of space beyond Neptune that includes Pluto and the large planetoids Quaoar and Orcus, 2005 FY9, and the planet 2003 UB313 among others. 2003 EL61 is currently the third brightest object in this region after Pluto and 2005 FY9. It is so bright that it can readily be seen by high-end amateur telescopes equipped with CCD cameras. Other than being extremely bright, 2003 EL61 appeared at first to be typical of a type of Kuiper belt objects that astronomers call "scattered Kuiper belt objects." They are called "scattered" because it is believed that they once had a close encounter with Neptune which gravitationally "scattered" these objects onto more eccentric orbits. You can compare the orbits of the three bright newly discovered Kuiper belt objects below. 2003 EL61 and 2005 FY9 are both on similar eccentric orbits tilted by ~30 degrees from the rest of the solar system. The 10th planet, 2003 UB313, is even more eccentric and tilted by 45 degrees.

Many times when objects like this are discovered we don't actually know how big we are, just how bright they are. How bright they are tells us how much sunlight they reflect. But they could be bright and reflect a lot of sunlight because they are large or they could be bright because they are highly reflective, like a ball of snow. In the case of 2003 EL61, however, we have gotten lucky, because soon after the discovery of the objcet we discovered a moon orbiting it. By following the orbit of the moon over the course of 6 months we are able to precisely determine the mass of 2003 EL61 and its moon. The mass is about 32% that of Pluto. Unfortunately, the mass does not directly tell us it's size. An object that weighs a lot can either be small and dense, like something made out of rock, or large and less dense, like something made out of ice.

The fast spin of 2003 EL61, however, gives away its size in a somewhat complicated way. When an object spins quickly, it stretches out, much like a pizza crust tossed into the air. A denser rockier object stretches out less than a less dense lighter object. By seeing just how much 2003 EL61 stretches out due to its spin we can tell how dense it is. We find that 2003 EL61 must be made almost entirely of rock or else its very fast 4 hour spin would stretch it out even more than it is already stretched!

Once we know how much 2003 EL61 weighs and we know what 2003 EL61 is made of we can figure out how big it is. The answer is that it is as big as Pluto -- along its longest dimension. Nothing else so large and so elongated or so quickly rotating is know anywhere in the solar system.

The first moon to 2003 EL61 was discovered on January 28th 2005 by observations at the Keck Observatory. The observations were obtained with a brand new high powered system at Keck which used a laser projecting out of the telescope to correct for the turbulence of the atmosphere. This system, called laser guide star adaptive optics, allows astronomers on the ground to take images with the sharpness of images obtained from space by the Hubble Space Telescope. When we observed 2003 EL61 with this new facility we immediately saw that there was a faint moon in the vicinity. From 5 observations over the span of 6 months we have precisely determined the orbit of the satellite to 2003 EL61.

About 10% of Kuiper belt objects have satellites, but until recently no other object in the Kuiper belt was known to have more than one satellite. Recently, however, 2 small satellites around Pluto were also discovered. It appears likely, now, that other Kuiper belt objects (at least large Kuiper belt objects) might also have multiple satellite systems.
There is another good description on wikipedia here:
http://en(dot)wikipedia(dot)org/wiki/2003_EL61
 
Appollynon said:
I found this article on the BBC very interesting as this Dwarf Planet may make an appearance in our inner solar system if it's close passage with Neptune affects its orbit.
I was reading it all and could not find the information that is relevant: "may make an appearance in our inner solar system" WHEN?
It 1 year? 10 years? 10,000 years? or 10mln years?
Or did I miss it?
 
HI Ark, you didn't miss the information regarding when this planetoid could possibly make an appearance in our solar system, it has not been given in the BBC article or in the link to the research notes I have posted. I have had a quick look at the projected orbit on NASA's site and it's orbit does seem to intersect the orbit of Neptune, however I'm at work at the moment and so havent had much time to persue research to try and find out if anyone has worked out any likely dates for such an event, or calculated the chance that it may happen at all. Im not sure at the moment if the "WHEN", is a hypothetical "When" which may, or may not happen. Your right, without any data to back it up, we cannot know if its just a hypothetical opinion or a valid hypothesis backed up by observable data.

The BBC article is slightly annoying in this respect as they claim that this planetoid may become the brightest cometary-type object in our skies, but they don't mention whether it may be in our lifecycles or not. I'll spend a bit of time tonight trying to look for answers and email Mr Brown, and if I don't find any then I will consign the theory to speculation instead of a hypothesis with data to back it up. I do think the article is interesting enough to post as another example of the wide range of new planetoids and comet type activity being found in our times, which the MSM want us to belive we couldn't see before.

I have been doing some in-depth research of Dr Browns published papers at this address (for anyone interested) http://www(dot)gps(dot)caltech(dot)edu/~mbrown/papers/pubs(dot)html

I have looked through all of the papers and information Dr Brown has on the web about the object 2003 EL61, and have found some interesting data (75% of which I bareley comprehend), however there is no informaion or data regarding the claim that the BBC article makes about the possibility of interaction with Neptune and our inner solar system (within the Kuiper Belt). I have emailed Dr Brown and asked for some help in understanding the nature of what was said in the article and asked politely if he would be able to share any reasons/data/observations that have led him to think that this object may become a sort of cometary object passing through the inner solar system. Im awaiting an answer as I type.

After another lok over the article, I noticed Dr Brown is quoted as saying
"If you came back in two million years, EL61 could well be a comet
So I'm guessing that this may be something that is a possible outcome in the far distant future and not likely in our lifecycles. However I await a reply in the hope that Dr Brown may clear thing up some for us.
 
Hi Ark,

I have had a short reply email form Dr Mike Brown which I hope wil help with this topic. I will copy the exchange below. It will be a little while before anyone can review the findings for themselves and determine if the paper is valid or contains any erors. I hope this helps, I will make sure I keep an eye out for the papers publication and post it here when it is released so you can take a look.

Date: Wed, 17 Jan 2007 20:25:27 +0000 (GMT)
From: "Kevin Breen" <endlessdissatisfaction@yahoo(dot)co(dot)uk>
To: mbrown@caltech(dot)edu
Subject: Help with information regarding object 2003 EL61

Dr Brown

I am a (very) amateur astronomer in the UK with a great interest in NEO's and recent discoveries inside and outside our solar system. Today I was lucky enough to find an article on the BBC News website relating to your research regarding the Kuiper Belt Object 2003 EL61. I was very intrigued by the dramatic way in which the article presented some of your hypotheses regarding this object.The article states:

An unusual dwarf planet discovered in the outer Solar System could be en route to becoming the brightest comet ever known.

2003 EL61 is a large, dense, rugby-ball-shaped hunk of rock with a fast rotation rate.

Professor Mike Brown has calculated that the object could be due a close encounter with the planet Neptune.

If so, Neptune's gravity could catapult it into the inner Solar System as a short-period comet.

"If you came back in two million years, EL61 could well be a comet," said Professor Brown, from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in Pasadena.

"When it becomes a comet, it will be the brightest we will ever see."

What really caught my attention was the part of the aricle that says you have calculated that the object could be due a close encounter with the Planet Neptune. My curiosity got the better of me and so I have researched through a few of your Published research papers to read more (at this site http://www(dot)gps(dot)caltech(dot)edu/~mbrown/) and find out about this object. However I found no mention on your site of your calulations regarding the orbit of this object or it's likely hood to interact with the orbit of Neptune. This is why I have written to you to ask you if it's posible to find out more about the orbit and the calculations that have led to your hypothesis set out in the article from the BBC.

My main questions are:

Would such an interaction between the two objects be likely in our lifetimes, or say 100 years from now? or are we talking about some time in the distant future?

What has let you to the hypothesis that it's orbit an interaction with Neptune may cause it to enter our inner solar system?

Any help you could give to me on this subject would be much appreciated.

Kindest Regards
Kevin G Breen


Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2007 09:03:09 -0800
From: "Mike Brown" mbrown@caltech(dot)edu
To: "Kevin Breen" <endlessdissatisfaction@yahoo(dot)co(dot)uk>
Subject: Re: Help with information regarding object 2003 EL61

Hi Kevin --
If you can wait about a month (I hope it's that soon) we have a paper
coming out in Nature with all of the calculations!
Mike
 
Appollynon said:
Hi Kevin --
If you can wait about a month (I hope it's that soon) we have a paper
coming out in Nature with all of the calculations!
Mike
Thanks. BTW: That's a funny answer from Mr Brown - that is no answer at all. I read it as if he was saying: "I don't know, it's all speculation. But the public is too stupid to know the difference." :)
 
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