For sure the narratives are out there, including all the analysis by analysts such as Makrovic. Are they analyzing or promoting?
Here is my gut feeling and hopefully some rational thoughts on this matter. Whoever really wants a guns-blazing American civil war, would to have to use a lot of catalysts to get it started, including major televised, orchestrated violence to light the match. Even so, a simple Euro Maidan won’t work here.
People here are generally too nice and comfortable and committed to safety. The people on the political right have the guns and mindset to actually go for it but they value the constitution, law and order.
So the only way it actually happens is if the absolute shredding of the constitution and the existence of an unjust and reprehensible lawless government is not only perceived, but experienced first hand en masse. (Yes, a lot of people already see the elephant in the room but they are hoping it goes away on its own!)
So, the outcome of the coming election is crucial. Even if Harris was to be declared winner, I am not sure that is enough, although it would certainly set the stage. Cancelling the election could do it. And even then, I think it would start as a legalistic rebellion, not a shooting type war. This could already be planned? For it to make sense, the Rebelling states would need a vote by the people.
Furthermore, if China were to invade Taiwan and other global hot spots accelerate, that would tend to make people think we can’t have a breakup now. Same if there is a huge natural disaster. People would come together and put politics on hold. Well, It’s complex for sure and each generation has a different leaning on this stuff.
Personally, I don’t feel the urge to move to Texas or Florida or Idaho yet. The PTB would need a narrative for the Media to run with. They’ve shot themselves in the foot by brainwashing Americans with patriotic fluff to bolster support for generations of US international bullying. So there is loyalty to the dysfunctional relationship.
Bottom line: I don’t see it happening without an official suspension of the US government. (Which technically has already happened but it would need to be more blatant, generally acknowledged, and intrusive in everyday life)
Thanks for bringing this topic to the table.