Well, while a limited fraud may (or may not) have occurred, I am somewhat skeptical that there was a "massive fraud" or that AMLO actually won the election. The main reason is that AMLO is himself a psychopath who cannot be trusted, for the reasons I gave over here:
http://www.cassiopaea.org/forum/index.php?topic=2884
Before the election, AMLO said that he trusted IFE and Trife and the electoral system. On more than one occasion, he said on TV that he would accept a defeat even by one vote. Of course, he said that because at the time he was ahead on the polls, and he was confident of winning.
Then the election came, and as soon as it was known that Calderon won (which was indeed one very possible outcome as the tendencies showed), AMLO immediately shouted fraud. He said there were massive irregularities. He showed, for example, a video of the chief of a polling station putting votes into a ballot box. However, it should be noted that the video was taken by the representative of his party in the station, who later signed the documents stating that he agreed with the validity of the results of the station (the officials in every station are citizens chosen randomly from the population; not members of the government; and in most stations there is at least one representative of every party). The man putting the votes inside the box knew he was being videoed, and carried on because he didn't think he was doing anything wrong. The IFE argued that he was actually changing votes which had been placed in the wrong ballot by voters (for example, deputies instead of senators), which is consistent with the fact that the representative of AMLO's party signed his agreement with the results of the station.
In other words: it appeared that AMLO was taking small irregularities and blowing them out of proportion in order to revert the very small difference in numbers. That is, of course, what a psychopath would do when faced with defeat. He also double-spoke by legally objecting to a certain limited number of polling stations but in public asking for a complete recount. That is, he always knew there would not be a total recount because according to the law you just recount the ones that have been legally challenged, not all of them. But politically, he could later argue that they didn't want to recount everything and that this was further proof of fraud.
Having said that, it is also true that the difference between the two candidates was so small, that even a tiny fraud would've been enough to change the final result (as I said, I don't believe there was a "massive fraud" since the Mexican electoral system evolved a lot in the past decade and is now reasonably reliable, and is independent from the government). If there was such a fraud, it was made by somehow stuffing ballot boxes with just a couple votes here and a couple more there for a cumulative overall effect. It would still have been difficult, since the officials in every station are CITIZENS, not burocrats, and most of the stations also have representatives from every party. So how did they manage to bipass citizens randomly chosen from the population and the representatives of every party in every station that was subject to the alleged fraud? That's one thing that has not been explained. However, AMLO has offered as an explanation that they were bribed - even members of his own party. I hope you see how unlikely it is that even the members of his own party were bribed IN MASSES for a generalized fraud.
The best thing, of course, would be to see the evidence. What exactly were the irregularities in the challenged stations? But that is impossible to do. We cannot go and check the thousands that are being recounted (9% of the total) to see if there are really important irregularities or if its just blowing out of proportion whatever small incident. So we basically have to trust whatever Trife says, who is in charge of recounting that 9%.
So what is my conclusion? I don't know if there was a fraud, but IF there was, it was small and not massive, but perhaps big enough to change the result. AMLO is exagerating the irregularities for political reasons, as the psychopath he is. He is betting on the decades long accumulated anger of the people for support and is now using 'shock' tactics, such as blocking the major avenue in Mexico City, and I'm sure that he's hoping for a violent confrontation, cause that will give him more validity. In spite of his actions, most likely Calderon will be validated as president (since most people are simply tired of the elections) and then it will be the psychopathic system of globalization and capitalism the American way, and so the poor will have even more reasons to be angry.
So there's no way out for Mexico. My poor Mexico.
