oil prices

davey72

The Living Force
I have noticed the price of gas where i am is around 85 cents a litre. Oil is about sixty bucks a barrel right now. I wonder if the panic this could cause could possibly be the beginning of the end for the economy. Year zero?
-http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/as-oil-prices-skid-again-panic-is-beginning-to-set-in/article22060567/?service=mobile
 
The reasons why for the price of oil is this "low" are mainly geopolitical :

- Hurting Russia. But this is a poor attempt.

- For Saudi Arabia and the other oil producing countries, the price of oil is the best weapon against the US shale gas industry. With a barrel at 80$, most shale gas companies are profitable. With a barrel at 60$, the percentage drops dramatically. Furthermore, many shale gas companies have massively borrowed money from the US banking system. If they fail, they will not pay off their debts. It would make something like "shale gas subprimes".

The question is to know when the US government is going to put an end to this decrease. Some analysts bet on spring.

This is why i do not foresee any panic. Everything is under control. As always, the oil price is a concerted political decision.
 
I was talking about this today since we just filled up our car and the price is only $2.8 a gallon and recently it was always over $4. They said it was because "fracking" is causing imported oil to drop so the price of gas dropped to below the cost of fracking to stop this... but fracking isn't used for gasoline in cars its for natural gas and heating as far as I know. Not sure where they got this idea though, I just found this interesting that the rationalization was due to something in the US and not what has already been outlined in this thread.
 
Shinzenbi said:
The reasons why for the price of oil is this "low" are mainly geopolitical :

- Hurting Russia. But this is a poor attempt.

- For Saudi Arabia and the other oil producing countries, the price of oil is the best weapon against the US shale gas industry. With a barrel at 80$, most shale gas companies are profitable. With a barrel at 60$, the percentage drops dramatically. Furthermore, many shale gas companies have massively borrowed money from the US banking system. If they fail, they will not pay off their debts. It would make something like "shale gas subprimes".

The question is to know when the US government is going to put an end to this decrease. Some analysts bet on spring.

This is why i do not foresee any panic. Everything is under control. As always, the oil price is a concerted political decision.

This article on SoTT talks a bit about what is going on with the oil situation and why. As Shinzenbi says it seems to be an attempt at hurting Russia.
As Russia under Putin has proven rather resilient, I can't help but wonder what prices are going to look like once they realize this tactic doesn't work.
 
Not to speculate on the reasons that oil prices rise or fall; just to point out oil as a leading indicator of the economy. When oil prices crater like they have now, the economy seems to crater too, with a lag time of a few months.
 
hlat said:
Not to speculate on the reasons that oil prices rise or fall; just to point out oil as a leading indicator of the economy. When oil prices crater like they have now, the economy seems to crater too, with a lag time of a few months.
That's what I used to think, but recently, I was looking out for oil prices before 2001, because at every news, the comparison is no more than 2004, one thing I do remember is that there were not alarm bells, red lights economic tragedy, etc, regarding oil prices, they were even low. Found this site, with interesting graphs and info.

I had not read all, had seen the graphics, and, at the end, it says:
_http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm said:
Recessions and Oil Prices

It is worth noting that the three longest U.S. recessions since the Great Depression coincided with exceptionally high oil prices. The first two lasted 16 months. The first followed the 1973 Embargo started in November 1973 and the second in July 1981. The latest began in December 2007 and lasted 18 months. Charts similar to the one at the right have been used to argue that price spikes and high oil prices cause recessions. There is little doubt that price is a major factor.

Something is weird here then, because oil prices are "exceptionally low" so they say, and from what I know, US had not came out from 2008 crisis -not from the official versions-.

I had been reading similar info related Shinzenbi post in which "they" are going to hurt "Russia" throughout oil prices at SOTT, but I think still, something is off here.

graphic from here: _http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm


edit:unbold a text
 

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Russia is not the only country hurt by the current oil prices. Oil represented approximately 14% of its GDP before prices drop. It also impacts all the countries that export oil (Venezuela, Bolivia, Algeria, Finland, Iran...). I also wonder if there is really a plan behind it. Where does it lead ?

hlat said:
Not to speculate on the reasons that oil prices rise or fall; just to point out oil as a leading indicator of the economy. When oil prices crater like they have now, the economy seems to crater too, with a lag time of a few months.

Other real economy indicators are Baltic dry index, ISM manufacturing index, electricity consumption, tires consumption, Caterpillar machines sales... Something interesting to notice in this period is that several indexes are at their lowest level since their creation, like Baltic dry index (297 points today).
 
Seems to me these crashing commodity prices and indices are leading or coincident indicators of the next wave of a crashing worldwide economy.
 
Looks like U.S. Government "Sanctions" are again - back firing?

Exclusive: Iran wants euro payment for new and outstanding oil sales - source
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-exclusive-idUSKCN0VE21S

Fri Feb 5, 2016 - Iran wants to recover tens of billions of dollars it is owed by India and other buyers of its oil in euros and is billing new crude sales in euros, too, looking to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar following last month's sanctions relief.

A source at state-owned National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) told Reuters that Iran will charge in euros for its recently signed oil contracts with firms including French oil and gas major Total, Spanish refiner Cepsa and Litasco, the trading arm of Russia's Lukoil.

"In our invoices we mention a clause that buyers of our oil will have to pay in euros, considering the exchange rate versus the dollar around the time of delivery," the NIOC source said.

Lukoil and Total declined to comment, while Cepsa did not respond to a request for comment.

Iran has also told its trading partners who owe it billions of dollars that it wants to be paid in euros rather than U.S. dollars, said the person, who has direct knowledge of the matter.

Iran was allowed to recover some of the funds frozen under U.S.-led sanctions in currencies other than dollars, such as the Omani rial and UAE dhiram.

Switching oil sales to euros makes sense as Europe is now one of Iran's biggest trading partners.

"Many European companies are rushing to Iran for business opportunities, so it makes sense to have revenue in euros," said Robin Mills, chief executive of Dubai-based Qamar Energy.

Iran has pushed for years to have the euro replace the dollar as the currency for international oil trade. In 2007, Tehran failed to persuade OPEC members to switch away from the dollar, which its then President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called a "worthless piece of paper".

The NIOC source said Iran's central bank instituted a policy while the country was under sanctions over its disputed nuclear program to carry out foreign trade in euros.

"Iran shifted to the euro and canceled trade in dollars because of political reasons," the source said.

BOOST FOR EURO TRADE

Iran has the world's fourth-largest proved reserves of crude oil, and expects to quickly increase production, which could lead to tens of billions of euros worth of new oil trade.

Iran's insistence on being paid in euros rather than dollars is also a sign of an uneasy truce between Tehran and Washington even after last month's lifting of most sanctions.

U.S. officials estimate about $100 billion (69 billion pound) of Iranian assets were frozen abroad, around half of which Tehran could access as a result of sanctions relief.

It is not clear how much of those funds are oil dues that Iran would want back in euros.

India owes Tehran about $6 billion for oil delivered during the sanctions years.

Last month, NIOC's director general for international affairs told Reuters that Iran "would prefer to receive (oil money owed) in some foreign currency, which for the time being is going to be euro."

Indian government sources confirmed Iran is looking to be paid in euros.

Tehran has asked to be paid using the exchange rates at the time the oil was delivered, along with interest for those payment delays, Indian and Iranian sources said.

Indian officials are working on a mechanism that could involve local banks United Commercial Bank (UCO) and IDBI Bank for handling payments to Iran, one Indian government source said.

UCO CEO R.K. Takkar said the bank is involved in payments to Iran, but did not say if there were any plans to change the payment mechanism. IDBI CEO Kishor Kharat could not be reached for comment.

India could also try to resume payments through Turkey's Halkbank, a channel it stopped using in 2012, or by direct transfer to Iranian banks through the global SWIFT transaction network.

With Iran now again linking to international lenders through SWIFT, the NIOC source said it was easy for Tehran to be paid in any currency it wants, adding: "And we want euros."
 
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