Probability of Polish-Russian War

[Hitsu]

Hi.

Last day I saw some information on one site:

Germany, Italy and French are against providing assistance to Poland within NATO in the events of an attack from Russia.
The use of armed forces in the event of an attack declared the USA, Canada and UK.

So I started thinking about probability of Polish-Russian War.

What do you guys think about this?

 

[Laura]

Remote.

And rumor/fear mongering.

 

[Hitsu]

Remote.

And rumor/fear mongering.

OK, so I will interpret that as:
right now this is unlikely, information like this are spreaded to trigger fear (food for the moon).

Thanks for the answer Laura. :)

 

[Deleted member 4320]

This is like to attack one's own back-yard. Poland is not especially significant country. And the attack or try to attack would be only like inserting the stick into an anthill. Poland is in the NATO and also, I think, Poles are too sensitive of direct takeover of freedom, but they are not too busy of foreign power, if that power doesn't interfere with their lives and standard of living is sufficient.

Poland is a channel to Europe, better to stack up as a loyal Russian ally. Maybe some wise people do this once time.

 

[Hitsu]

Ah and I forgot to highlight this.

I live in Poland and I am polish.

 

[Possibility of Being]

Hi.

Last day I saw some information on one site:

What site was it? Can you provide a link?

 

[Kasia]

Hi.

Last day I saw some information on one site:

What site was it? Can you provide a link?

I've found it for instance here:

http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/209724,NATO-publics-wary-of-engagement-in-case-of-Russian-attack

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/en/blogs/natosource/nato-publics-reluctant-to-provide-military-aid-to-allies-under-attack

 

[Jeremy F Kreuz]

So I started thinking about probability of Polish-Russian War.

What do you guys think about this?

ok just imagine for a moment that the russian would do this, how would they do it? In military terms? Kalingrad borders Poland, so that would have to be the launching stage and/or get some deal with bellarussia. In order to do that the Russian army would have to build up massively - I mean massively. And then? how would tlhe supply go, the logistics? They would have to invade Ukraine and the baltics first. So looking just very briefly at it from pure military logistics, it is impossible - or only possible after other countries are invaded.

 

[Piotrek]

Every single mainstream PL news source is spewing the same "Russia is the devil" crap as in the US. The problem with the general PL population is their intense sensitivity to Russia because of indoctrination in school (Sept 17 1939, when the USSR attacked Poland is viewed by some as worse than Germany's attack on Sept 1st). Because of this it is very difficult for the average PL individual to even attempt to see the entire situation objectively. The emotional reaction to the word "Russia" is very strong (not to mention western-style brainwashing via all types of media has been very effective).

 

[Possibility of Being]

I've found it for instance here:

http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/209724,NATO-publics-wary-of-engagement-in-case-of-Russian-attack

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/en/blogs/natosource/nato-publics-reluctant-to-provide-military-aid-to-allies-under-attack

Thanks, Kasia.

Most Germans, French and Italians would be against sending their own countries’ troops to Poland in the event of a Russian attack, a new survey from Pew pollsters reveals.

Fortunately or not, "Most Germans, French and Italians" have no say when it comes to sending their troop anywhere in the world. Not that I exclude our 'allies' would betray Poland again when an opportunity occurs. But first of all, "only an insane person and only in a dream can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack NATO." :)

From the same article (thenews):

And, with the exception of Poles, three-in-ten want to increase sanctions on Russia. ... Nearly half of Poles (49 percent) would increase economic sanctions on Moscow. Only a median of 25 percent in the other countries say the same.

How cool! (not )

And last but not least: this kind of polls are pretty much garbage. The only reason for 'research centers' to conduct them is to follow orders and produce expected results to be used by the powers and their mouthpieces against people and to push their agenda (see Laura's reply).

 

[Kasia]

I've found it for instance here:

http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/209724,NATO-publics-wary-of-engagement-in-case-of-Russian-attack

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/en/blogs/natosource/nato-publics-reluctant-to-provide-military-aid-to-allies-under-attack

Thanks, Kasia.

Most Germans, French and Italians would be against sending their own countries’ troops to Poland in the event of a Russian attack, a new survey from Pew pollsters reveals.

Fortunately or not, "Most Germans, French and Italians" have no say when it comes to sending their troop anywhere in the world. Not that I exclude our 'allies' would betray Poland again when an opportunity occurs. But first of all, "only an insane person and only in a dream can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack NATO." :)

From the same article (thenews):

And, with the exception of Poles, three-in-ten want to increase sanctions on Russia. ... Nearly half of Poles (49 percent) would increase economic sanctions on Moscow. Only a median of 25 percent in the other countries say the same.

How cool! (not )

And last but not least: this kind of polls are pretty much garbage. The only reason for 'research centers' to conduct them is to follow orders and produce expected results to be used by the powers and their mouthpieces against people and to push their agenda (see Laura's reply).

Yeah... to begin with the research question which is preconceived and wrong....

 

[SeekinTruth]

Yeah, it's not going to happen. The only scenario that Russia would attack any other country is if they are attacked first. In which case they might use their advanced missiles to take out military installations in NATO countries. But that's not at all likely to happen either (NATO attacking Russia, as they would be destroyed pretty quickly).

 

[sacriface]

Even the polls built on wrong assumptions, however, still provide a glimpse into the extent of the Polish "generational PTSD" which today is a tradition of hatred towards Russia. I too experience it first-hand being Polish and nowadays living mostly in Warsaw. The mainstream media propaganda has hit a bull's eye with Polish public opinion.

Some time ago I had a discussion with my father about the demonization of Russia, I tried to explain how deceiving and baseless it is, and it only resulted in hitting an emotional, fierce brick wall. This was a big surprise for me as he's quite open minded; he is familiar with Cassiopaea, "the Wave", and lots of other various conspiracy/channeling material. He is also aware of the US bloody imperial drive and has a good knowledge of it's history, but on the other side of what I'd call this buffer, there still is no way Russia could ever be innocent in regards to any accusation ever made.

I suppose this is largely caused by his experience of "free" America from the 70's, he lived there for a couple of years because his father (my grandpa) worked as a diplomat in Washington, all this of course during the time of Russian 'ownership' of Poland. Hence, my defense of Russia caused so much reverberation that when I visited my grandfather he brought up what my father told him and basically could not wrap his head around it (a second brick wall).

When I went on to discussing both the events from recent history and ongoing ones which show the global covert and overt US aggression, he derailed the whole conversation towards jokes and teasing (I could sense a slight erosion of confidence). But in the end, the serious conclusion was in his words that when it comes to it - him and I will have to stand on the opposite sides of the barricade, and so far it seems this would also be the case with my father.

Both these men are and were always very far from buying into anything else that is touted in the mainstream media. My father disregards it (well, almost) completely, and they both do not trust USA today, but when it comes to Russia, there are those brick walls.

A sad point in case, and I suppose this emotional baggage that infects critical thinking is even much larger in most people in Poland.

It's almost like everybody's waiting for it! So they, with the help of NATO, could finally take their revenge on Russians and show them their place after decades of oppression in the 20th century.

I guess this is the result of being a 'buffer country' between East and West for centuries.. (pun intended)

 

[SeekinTruth]

That's unfortunate, ametist, if it's widespread among the Polish population. I've heard conflicting reports from Bulgarians and Romanians about how the general population is not following the politicians and media memes. There was widespread anger and a big backlash on a Bulgarian forum when they cancelled the South Stream pipeline, so who knows. But I do get the feeling that Poland and the Baltic states are the most rabid anti-Russians, including large numbers of the general population, not just the politicians and media.

 

[thorbiorn]

That's unfortunate, ametist, if it's widespread among the Polish population. I've heard conflicting reports from Bulgarians and Romanians about how the general population is not following the politicians and media memes. There was widespread anger and a big backlash on a Bulgarian forum when they cancelled the South Stream pipeline, so who knows. But I do get the feeling that Poland and the Baltic states are the most rabid anti-Russians, including large numbers of the general population, not just the politicians and media.

In spite of their present enthusiasm, for anything EU/US/NATO it may dwindle when they realize there is a prize to pay. For instance

June 11, 2015

News.mail.ru
The Baltics are not thrilled to share the burden of European refugee crisis
Translated by Kristina Rus

Grybauskaite called resettlement of all Africans to Europe impossible

President of Lithuania Dalia Grybauskaite said that Vilnius is ready to receive three times fewer refugees from Africa, than is provided by the migrant allocation formula, presented by the European Commission (EC), reports TASS.

"According to our calculations, which we will present to the European Commission, Lithuania is able to accommodate up to 250 people," - said the President, explaining that this figure was derived taking into account the population and GDP of the country. [...]

[Comment from the translator]KR: A few hundred here and there does not look like a significant number, but how will this number increase due to hunger, conflicts and wars? Once you have got all the EU countries on the hook with quotas, will the stream of refugees continue at the same rate or even strengthen?

Latvia lost 500,000 people since independence from USSR due to the exodus of Russians, as well Latvians searching for work in the EU. People were fleeing from, not to Latvia. Likely this was not the way Latvia, or any other Baltic countries experiencing the same demographic problems wanted to beef up their population numbers.

The big question is, will the EU think harder next time before supporting American military adventures and regime changes in North Africa and the Middle East, since it has to bear the consequences?

And there was this:

June 12, 2015
Ukraine is a disposable torpedo against Russia
Alexander Rogers
Rusvesna
Translated by Kristina Rus
Nobody in the West cares about the fate of Ukraine. This is a disposable torpedo, said a prominent Ukrainian journalist and blogger Alexander Rogers, commenting on the possibility of Russia being drawn into armed conflict.

Just like Ukraine, are countries like Poland, the Baltics and many other areas in the EU more than expendables? Just think how much the US imposed sanctions have cost many countries in the EU, including Poland.

Kristina Rus asked in her comment if the EU would be able to think. Yes, but it takes time, just as a drop of water can make a hole in a stone, - in time. Here is one drop of reason:

Former Prime Minister of France: "The Americans are going too far"
June 11, 2015
Translated from French by Tom Winter

François Fillon, the deputy of the Republicans, condemned US interference in every area of life in Europe, and declared “The Americans are going too far," on “Bourdin Direct” on channels BFMTV and RMC Wednesday

In his interview with Jean-Jacques Bourdin Wednesday, the former Prime Minister was asked several questions on current events, including the return of PM Manuel Valls from the League of Champions finale on an Air Force plane and on France’s economic situation. But he spoke most firmly toward the end of the interview when the subject of the Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement (TTIP) came up.

“The way things are now, I am against signing the TTIP treaty,” stressed Fillon, and he declared himself “shocked” that the American judiciary “thinks it is free to intervene anywhere in the world.”

“The American judiciary encroaches constantly on the justice system of the European countries,” he said, addressing the part of the TTIP which raises the greatest controversy, the private tribunals that treaty opponents see as a kick in the face to to the sovereignty of the state, and that entail evaluating the risk of having to pay off an indemnity before making any decision that could affect the profits of some American corporation.

The private tribunals are a mechanism of arbitration that permit a company to get damages from a state for its adoption of this or that socio-economic measure.

The former Prime Minister likewise recalled certain instances of abuse by American justice, notably the penalty against BNP Paribas [Banque Nationale de Paris] “for matters that didn’t concern the US at all.”

"It’s the fact the US thinks every transaction in dollars opens a pathway for litigation to American justice — that’s the problem," he stressed, noting that instances of violation of American embargoes against Sudan, Cuba, and Iran, that led to penalties, didn’t even happen on American soil.

“Today, Europe is not independent,” he declared. "The US pressured Germany to find a compromise with Greece; the German intelligence service are spying on France, not on their own account, but for the US. The US gets us on board for a crusade against Russia, a crusade contrary to the interests of Europe; the US conduct a policy in the Middle East that is extraordinarily dangerous for us," he said, before adding that he wanted to open the debate on the question “How to bring about Europe' Independence?”

“We have to tell the Americans that they’re going too far.” We can’t deal so long as there isn’t a clarification of the place of the US in Europe,” said the candidate in the primary of the Republicans. “Every day, we uncover some sort of imperialism, and it’s the effect of the power and the workings of the US politial system,” he concluded.