Recent aurora's

[benklerk]

Hello all

Thought I might make a post for just encase someone asks this question in the next Cs update.

If your aware last week we had a strong solar storm which caused people to see the aurora’s again around the 20 deg and below latitude mark. This would make it twice in 1 year this has happened. As far as I’m aware this is pretty much the first time this has happened in modern recorded history.

If people are aware, the Carrington event in 1859 is the most intense solar storm in recorded history, it’s an estimate that a X40+ flare occurred. This also caused people to see the aurora’s at very low latitude. Then in 1921 we got a another very intense solar storm not as strong as the Carrington event. This was an estimate of X30+ solar flare which again caused people to see lights at lower latitudes. Then in 1989 also know as the Quebec solar storm had a X15 solar flare, this event didn’t cause people to see the aurora’s at low latitude, just to put it into perspective. The last major solar storm to produce aurora’s at lower latitudes was the 2003 Halloween solar storm which was made by a X45 solar flare, but was directed away from Earth.

Going by past events, it is starting to become very clear that it’s taking less stronger solar storms to produce aurora’s at lower latitude’s. It’s still a pity that people are starting to ask questions on this, but are being dismissed by main stream science.

I do know that the poles are moving but the current locations are not being shown to the public, and that a possible upcoming magnetic pole flip is underway. Hence the weaking magnetic field. Next year is this current solar cycle max, before it starts to calm doing again. We are also being effect by the galactic current sheet, which is affecting the whole solar system. The Earth has gone though this many times in the past.

Now the main questions are that I can think of, feel free to add your own.

• What is the likelihood this will be become a common occurrence this solar cycle or next solar cycle? To see the northern and southern lights at lower latitudes.
• How strong of a Xflare solar storm would it take to take out our technology network now? I guess as time goes on it will take less strength from a solar storm?
• What is the current strength of our Earth’s magnetic field, if the time of Carrington event the Earth was a full strength?
• With the weaking of the Earth’s magnetic field, letting in more cosmic rays/energy. This will make hurricane’s, storms etc, more stronger. How much longer is it until the trigger for the ice age to occur? Is it before, during or after the magnetic pole flip?

 

[heinrich]

Hello all

Thought I might make a post for just encase someone asks this question in the next Cs update.

If your aware last week we had a strong solar storm which caused people to see the aurora’s again around the 20 deg and below latitude mark. This would make it twice in 1 year this has happened. As far as I’m aware this is pretty much the first time this has happened in modern recorded history.

If people are aware, the Carrington event in 1859 is the most intense solar storm in recorded history, it’s an estimate that a X40+ flare occurred. This also caused people to see the aurora’s at very low latitude. Then in 1921 we got a another very intense solar storm not as strong as the Carrington event. This was an estimate of X30+ solar flare which again caused people to see lights at lower latitudes. Then in 1989 also know as the Quebec solar storm had a X15 solar flare, this event didn’t cause people to see the aurora’s at low latitude, just to put it into perspective. The last major solar storm to produce aurora’s at lower latitudes was the 2003 Halloween solar storm which was made by a X45 solar flare, but was directed away from Earth.

Going by past events, it is starting to become very clear that it’s taking less stronger solar storms to produce aurora’s at lower latitude’s. It’s still a pity that people are starting to ask questions on this, but are being dismissed by main stream science.

I do know that the poles are moving but the current locations are not being shown to the public, and that a possible upcoming magnetic pole flip is underway. Hence the weaking magnetic field. Next year is this current solar cycle max, before it starts to calm doing again. We are also being effect by the galactic current sheet, which is affecting the whole solar system. The Earth has gone though this many times in the past.

Now the main questions are that I can think of, feel free to add your own.

• What is the likelihood this will be become a common occurrence this solar cycle or next solar cycle? To see the northern and southern lights at lower latitudes.
• How strong of a Xflare solar storm would it take to take out our technology network now? I guess as time goes on it will take less strength from a solar storm?
• What is the current strength of our Earth’s magnetic field, if the time of Carrington event the Earth was a full strength?
• With the weaking of the Earth’s magnetic field, letting in more cosmic rays/energy. This will make hurricane’s, storms etc, more stronger. How much longer is it until the trigger for the ice age to occur? Is it before, during or after the magnetic pole flip?

thank you for this observation. indeed, it is said that earth's magnetic field is decreasing. then there should be a correlation with auroras latitudes

 

[Evan]

Hello all

Thought I might make a post for just encase someone asks this question in the next Cs update.

If your aware last week we had a strong solar storm which caused people to see the aurora’s again around the 20 deg and below latitude mark. This would make it twice in 1 year this has happened. As far as I’m aware this is pretty much the first time this has happened in modern recorded history.

If people are aware, the Carrington event in 1859 is the most intense solar storm in recorded history, it’s an estimate that a X40+ flare occurred. This also caused people to see the aurora’s at very low latitude. Then in 1921 we got a another very intense solar storm not as strong as the Carrington event. This was an estimate of X30+ solar flare which again caused people to see lights at lower latitudes. Then in 1989 also know as the Quebec solar storm had a X15 solar flare, this event didn’t cause people to see the aurora’s at low latitude, just to put it into perspective. The last major solar storm to produce aurora’s at lower latitudes was the 2003 Halloween solar storm which was made by a X45 solar flare, but was directed away from Earth.

Going by past events, it is starting to become very clear that it’s taking less stronger solar storms to produce aurora’s at lower latitude’s. It’s still a pity that people are starting to ask questions on this, but are being dismissed by main stream science.

I do know that the poles are moving but the current locations are not being shown to the public, and that a possible upcoming magnetic pole flip is underway. Hence the weaking magnetic field. Next year is this current solar cycle max, before it starts to calm doing again. We are also being effect by the galactic current sheet, which is affecting the whole solar system. The Earth has gone though this many times in the past.

Now the main questions are that I can think of, feel free to add your own.

• What is the likelihood this will be become a common occurrence this solar cycle or next solar cycle? To see the northern and southern lights at lower latitudes.
• How strong of a Xflare solar storm would it take to take out our technology network now? I guess as time goes on it will take less strength from a solar storm?
• What is the current strength of our Earth’s magnetic field, if the time of Carrington event the Earth was a full strength?
• With the weaking of the Earth’s magnetic field, letting in more cosmic rays/energy. This will make hurricane’s, storms etc, more stronger. How much longer is it until the trigger for the ice age to occur? Is it before, during or after the magnetic pole flip?

Niall and Joe devoted the last half hour of Sunday’s NewsReal to this topic. Polar shift, the jet stream, auroras visible from far south, sea floor temperature at 200 feet off Florida, the magnetic field, etc. Topic begins approx 1:30:00

NewsReal 10/14/2024

 

[Ben]

• What is the current strength of our Earth’s magnetic field, if the time of Carrington event the Earth was a full strength?

I have found this surprisingly difficult to answer. It's complicated by the fact that there seem to be a huge number of observatories and organisations within which they collaborate.

It's also been suggested to me that data on this has been deliberately withheld, as it is no longer as accessible as it used to be. Most articles seem to refer to around a 10% weakening of field strength in the last 200 years. That seems to be based on data from ESO Swarm satellite constellation in 2020. The South Atlantic Anomaly was identified at that time. Everything after that seems to be based on modelling.

Swarm probes weakening of Earth’s magnetic field

In an area stretching from Africa to South America, Earth’s magnetic field is gradually weakening. This strange behaviour has geophysicists puzzled and is causing technical disturbances in satellites orbiting Earth. Scientists are using data from ESA’s Swarm constellation to improve our...

www.esa.int

This page from NASA was last updated in 2014

Measuring Earth’s Magnetism

A new constellation of satellites from the European Space Agency can detect minuscule changes in the planet’s magnetic field.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov

It's a complex area to try and find data, it's surely being measured regularly. What are the measurements?

 

[Debra]

Then in 1921 we got a another very intense solar storm not as strong as the Carrington event. This was an estimate of X30+ solar flare which again caused people to see lights at lower latitudes.

There was at least one more, in between 1921 and ‘89. here’s a few quotes from an excellent online essay:

“The Geomagnetic Blitz of September 1941​

Seventy-five years ago, a massive geomagnetic storm disrupted electrical power, interrupted radio broadcasts, and illuminated the night sky in a World War II battle theater.”[…]

Weather Service observers reported seeing auroras in New Mexico [Cameron, 1941]. Letters to Sky and Telescope [1941] described the auroras seen around the United States.“[…]

Then in 1989 also know as the Quebec solar storm had a X15 solar flare, this event didn’t cause people to see the aurora’s at low latitude, just to put it into perspective.

I seemed to recall reading a poem my great Uncle had written during the winter of 1941/42 in which he referred to this event.
I didn’t know really where to start looking, then on Facebook , synchronistically, a “flat earthier” posted an excerpt from a 1941 Washington post news story, and cherry picked a paragraph out of it, declaring that it was proof that it was suspected to have been man made, or something.
Geezus, the world was at war, that’s where the wild guesses stemmed from.

That article is briefly mentioned : “According to the Washington Post [1941a], some people wondered if the celestial events had something to do with national defense: “Was it an antiaircraft search battery?” These were, after all, difficult times. The United States was already being drawn into World War II [e.g., Heinrichs, 1988], and many citizens anticipated even greater involvement.[…]

As to the strength, here’s mention:

“A magnetic observatory in Cheltenham, Md., operated by the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, registered six separate occurrences of geomagnetic storms with a K index of 9 (the most intense value possible). Five of these occurred consecutively over a 24-hour period. In terms of a related global index , the level of geomagnetic activity over a 24-hour period has not since been matched [e.g., Cliver and Svalgaard, 2004].
[…]

The Geomagnetic Blitz of September 1941 - Eos

Seventy-five years ago next week, a massive geomagnetic storm disrupted electrical power, interrupted radio broadcasts, and illuminated the night sky in a World War II battle theater.

eos.org

 

[Ben]

This is the closest I have found to an answer. This model is based on the most recent data from Swarm satellites. It suggests changes have been minimal since 2020, although the SAA continues to deepen.

State of the Geomagnetic Field - NERC Open Research Archive

nora.nerc.ac.uk

The performance of the World Magnetic Model 2020 (WMM2020) was assessed by comparing its predictions on January 1, 2024 with that of a more recent model inferred from data collected by the European Space Agency (ESA) Swarm satellites until September 2023. For all magnetic field components, the global root-mean-square error of WMM2020 increased by less than 10% of its previous value over the past four years and remained well below the maximum error allowed by the U.S. Department of Defense WMM specification. In addition, the WMM2020 secular variation was again deemed an accurate approximation of the actual secular variation observed at ground-based observatories and Swarm-based geomagnetic virtual observatories up to 2023. This suggests that nonlinear changes in the Earth’s magnetic field have remained small over the past three years. Since 2020, the north magnetic dip pole has moved at an average speed of 41 km/yr, and the south magnetic dip pole at 9 km/yr. Neither underwent any noticeable change in direction. These movements led to minor changes in the shape and location of the WMM blackout zones, where compass accuracy is highly degraded. The South Atlantic Anomaly, where the geomagnetic field intensity is lowest, has continued to deepen (by about 25 nT at surface level) and move westward (its center moved by about 20 km at surface level) in the past year.