Scientists: the global warming hypothesis unconfirmed
17 July, 12:49 UTC+7
Kazan Federal University: intense cold snap is to replace a long period of intense warming
According to Russian scientists of Kazan Federal University (Republic of Tatarstan, Russia), air temperatures increase in the Northern Hemisphere registered during the past 37 years has slowed down.
"We analyzed the average long-term values and fluctuation of air temperatures, barometric pressure and wind speed in the Northern Hemisphere in 1948-2013 respectively, and found that after a long period of intense warming, a period of intense cold snap began" told Yuri Perevedentsev, staff member of the Meteorology Department at Kazan Federal University, to ITAR-TASS reporter. He explained that this data does not support the hypothesis of global warming, but rather reflects cyclical climatic processes.
The scientists also found that "the temperature curve resembles wind speed curve, only with some delay", and in some regions "the contribution of wind component to temperature fluctuation reaches 60 percent."
In recent years, said Yuri Perevedentsev, the wind speed started slowing down, and with a lag of about 8 years the average air temperature also went down. Analysis of a large array of meteorological data revealed uneven temperature changes in the midland, tropics and circumpolar regions. During the temperature increase amounting to more than 30 years in the mid-latitudes (30-70° N), the temperatures grew by 0.75 degrees, in the tropics the increase was less: by 0.54 degrees only, and the highest temperature increase (2.38 degrees) was registered in the circumpolar regions.
According to the scientists, the starting point of these global climate fluctuations has been found in the Pacific Ocean. "Although temperature fluctuations over the oceans are less pronounced than over the land, there is a significant increase of surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean: El Niño (“baby” in Spanish)," said Yuri Perevedentsev. He thinks that rising temperatures could reach 10 degrees and have a strong influence on the transformation of ocean currents and circulation processes in the atmosphere, i.e. El Niño affects the wind speed. Other factors that affect the wind speed are the un-uniform Earth rotation (in winter it moves a little faster than in summer) and solar activity.
Yuri Perevedentsev noted that the resulting picture "partially fit in" with the hypothesis of Habibullo Abdusomatov, Head of the Space Research of the Sun Sector at Pulkovo Observatory, Russian Academy of Science. His scientific theory says that "approximately by 2042, the luminosity of our star will reach its minimum, resulting in planetary temperatures drop by 1-1.5 degrees, accompanied by significant increase of the contrast between the equator temperatures (which will remain unchanged) and high latitudes, where very cold winters are expected."
