Trump's 'Liberation Day': US govt imposes tariffs to 'reset' global trade, 'MAGA', 'defeat' China - Will it work?

Lol - facepalm. It's all at the whim of one man. Nothing sustainable at the level Trump is operating at comes from decisions being made on a whim, changing from one extreme to the next based on how one person is feeling. 90 day pause... What happens after 90 days 🤷. Why 90 days, why not 60? 45? etc

He might change his mind tomorrow... who knows. He gets a bad sleep tonight and you don't know what mood he'll be in tomorrow.

Trump is really playing high stakes poker here, not only with the US economy but with the global economy too. High stakes poker where the downside is well... economic ruin for millions upon millions and untold damage. These are the sorts of decisions that really shouldn't be in the hands of just one man.

I can't quite see what he intends to win. I think there are other less destructive ways to bring back manufacturing to the US if that is his aim.
 
And there it is, Trump announces a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs along with a 125% (!!!) tariff on China.

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I think he can destroy the market not by tariffs itself but by changing them day by day. Business likes stability.

This is designed to create a kind of smokescreen? Or is it meant to turn america back toward strong isolation? Certainly Trump has not been presenting himself as a reliable business partner lately. Or perhaps he who should know knows?
 
Trump is really playing high stakes poker here, not only with the US economy but with the global economy too.

I am not sure if this will be such catastrophic. Business will adapt. This total mess is a chance for alternative markets. Where US was a dominant, now is the time to change this because is loosing credibility. You can start talking with other partners because they have the same problem.
 
Jeffrey Sachs, apart from being one of the most sensible voices out there, is also a professor in Economy. In this video with The Duran, he gives the best explanation I've seen so far as to why Trump's tariffs war is such a bad idea:


I think what Sachs is missing is that the tariffs are merely a negotiation ploy. It's not meant to be the best plan. It's meant to bring other countries to the table. See: South Korea and Japan sending a trade team to the White House


And there it is, Trump announces a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs along with a 125% (!!!) tariff on China.

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All of this really makes you wonder:

Is Trump really that stupid or ill advised with what he is doing on the tariff front because it seems really obvious from what Sachs is saying (not really understanding it myself though), or is he playing another game there? Maybe it is has something to do with what has been discussed here and especially Vance role?:

Gold, Dollar, USA and the World: A new Global Financial System Ahead? J.D. Vance and Trump fundamentally changing the US toward Multipolarity?


Maybe Trump and/or Vance or others think it might be better to force
the inevitable now through a quick and harsh transition rather than dragging it out for years/decades?
 
Another plausible theory for Trump's trade tariffs:


Schasfoort pieces together comments (and articles/papers) by those advisors closest to Trump (Bessent & Miran).

The theory is that the current 'tariffs chaos' is a means of creating negotiating leverage with which to attract 'most-favored nations' into a 'new club' in which they agree to pegging their currency to the dollar in return for US military protection.

This, the US hopes, will ensure that the USD remains, de facto, global reserve currency. This end-goal would also formally define all participating countries as tribute-paying vassals of the US.

So, same dynamic as before under the 'neo-liberal order', just henceforth 'explicitly locked-in'. Or, "you're either with us, or you're with China!"
Theory supported by this statement from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today:

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that countries considering closer economic ties with China amid Washington’s recent draconian tariff policies “would be cutting [their] own throat.” The official expressed confidence that the US would eventually secure deals with allies, and then “approach China as a group.”
They're trying to 'lock in' as much of the world as possible to 'stop China from taking our place' as global hegemon. It's a 'coalition of the willing' to defend the American Way of Life™.
 
Lol - facepalm. It's all at the whim of one man. Nothing sustainable at the level Trump is operating at comes from decisions being made on a whim, changing from one extreme to the next based on how one person is feeling. 90 day pause... What happens after 90 days 🤷. Why 90 days, why not 60? 45? etc

He might change his mind tomorrow... who knows. He gets a bad sleep tonight and you don't know what mood he'll be in tomorrow.

Trump is really playing high stakes poker here, not only with the US economy but with the global economy too. High stakes poker where the downside is well... economic ruin for millions upon millions and untold damage. These are the sorts of decisions that really shouldn't be in the hands of just one man.

I can't quite see what he intends to win. I think there are other less destructive ways to bring back manufacturing to the US if that is his aim.
I don't know why you see this as Trump changing his mind from one day to the next. It seems pretty clear that this was the plan, use the tariffs to bring countries to the bargaining table and then back off the tariffs during negotiation. That wasn't done on a whim by "one man." One can debate the merits of his plan for sure, but I don't think it's correct to say this is all done by Trump flying by the seat of his economic pants.
 
I don't know why you see this as Trump changing his mind from one day to the next. It seems pretty clear that this was the plan, use the tariffs to bring countries to the bargaining table and then back off the tariffs during negotiation. That wasn't done on a whim by "one man." One can debate the merits of his plan for sure, but I don't think it's correct to say this is all done by Trump flying by the seat of his economic pants.
I think it's easy enough to say everything Trump does and the consequences thereof is part of a plan. It's hard to argue against that statement.

I'd say, let's judge Trump by the results of his actions.

Btw, this is a decent guy to keep tabs on:

 
The Americans are really chuffed with themselves!


I doubt the post-1971 Neoliberal Order can be so simply 'reset' by a big bluff and '75 countries accepting the new rules', but I've been surprised in the past by Americans' ability to 'will' things into reality.

Trump is using what amounts to a cheap trick to fight nature for a short term gain, IMO. Of course the goal of this whole gambit was to isolate China, but it comes across as rash, you could say desperate even. It's short term thinking and might attain some quick sugar high, which is increasingly how the West deals with the world, but it won't countervail the prevailing trend of steady growth in China, the Global South and the changing world order. For that, they need all out war with China. But they still haven't finished in Ukraine, and still haven't even taken out Iran. They are way behind schedule!

Maybe he is trying to do something else in his 4D chess way, but so far he has only provided the PTB with a different version of achieving this over all goal. The agenda doesn't seem to have changed. It's possible I too am falling for his super belligerent stance on China, Iran, Yemen etc but I have my doubts that he's gonna roll any of this agenda back.
 
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Stock market now in green. 😂 life is good again

Yea see.. We're probably gonna see many cycles of "IT'S SO OVER" and "WE'RE SO BACK", and it's important not to get sucked into the headlines or Youtube rabbit holes on either side of the coin. A lot of people probably wish they bought that dip and are now trapped sellers or sidelined. One thing's for sure, Trump always gives you another dip, whether it's months or just days down the line. Most likely it comes when everyone is optimistic again.
 
Sometimes one highly disrespectful public statement can undo what a politician is trying to do. This reminds me of Hillary's "deplorables" comment, insulting half of the country before the election.

In this case Trump is basically insulting all the countries that want to remain friendly towards the US - while negotitations are ongoing and China is openly defying the US.
It is funny how ironic all this nonsense is. Among the MAGA coalition is the anti-woke crowd. Now the US is claiming that it's been victimized and bullied by the poor countries it has bullied for decades, adopting the victim mentality it used to make fun of. Blaming the victims is also a mark of psychopathy, a characteristic it shares with its closest ally Israel. One could argue the EU is part of the club since per Ursula, European values are the Talmud. The good thing is that even if there are countries that are too poor to resist the US' economic war, being treated as "kissing ass" doesn't make them allies anymore, but potential allies of the rest of the world when the opportunity presents itself. The US empire will have no friends to call for help (certainly not Israel), which would be the real liberation day for its people. Now on the re-industrialization, only an idiot would build a factory and all its surrounding ecosystem when tariffs can change every few hours. Progressive tariffs over several years could give confidence but serious industrialists would wait and see, probably wait the end of the current administration (or its untimely termination). In the background, agricultural lands are still being acquired by the likes of Gates and BlackRock and the population is being liberated from the possibility of resisting enslavement. Interesting times.
 
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