Trump's 'Liberation Day': US govt imposes tariffs to 'reset' global trade, 'MAGA', 'defeat' China - Will it work?

[axj]

So, with an iPhone, what would be the final consumer US price made with American materials, American wages, and made in America? I have read that up to $3500, very exaggerated, perhaps? Double would be enough, isn't it?

I think that the price increases of iPhones and such if they were manufactured in the US may be wildly overstated by some. There are many different estimates:

A 2016 report from MIT Technology Review, which analyzed the supply chain, predicted that the price of an iPhone SE would increase by $100 by moving manufacturing entirely to the U.S.

Jason Dedrick, a professor at the School of Information Studies at Syracuse University, said at the time that the increased costs would mainly come from higher labor costs and more logistics for assembly. Overall, in 2016, an entirely U.S.-assembled iPhone would have cost around 13 percent more.

https://www.newsweek.com/iphone-cost-made-us-donald-trump-tariffs-2057298

According to Apple itself, the bigger problem is that there are currently not enough qualified workers in the US to assemble the iPhones. I suppose partly relying on robotics could solve that problem too.

 

[WhiteMountain]

Total imports in 2024 were much higher, about $4 trillion. $800 billion is just the import of services.

Also, reducing the income tax (without even abolishing it) would go a long way to offset the increased costs for people in the US. Tariffs increase the domestic prices for many things in the short term.

My bad. I looked at the wrong table in the data. But point stands on those numbers as well, you still cannot put 100% tax on imports. I agree 100% on the need to reduce the income taxes, my main point is you cannot just fund the complete elimination of the tax like all the MAGA crowd is saying. Personally I would like to see tariffs raised responsibly over time, income taxes eased down to zero replaced by cuts in spending and something like an enterprise value tax on public corporations. But none of that stuff can be done overnight.

 

[Mark]

According to Apple itself, the bigger problem is that there are currently not enough qualified workers in the US to assemble the iPhones. I suppose partly relying on robotics could solve that problem too.

Nice try Apple. I remember way back when I was unqualified to do my job, then I received training.

 

[SummerLite]

Speaking of Smart phones.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1911039461938381281

 

[Puma]

US will tariff China on everything but the 99% of what they import

Smartphones, computers, chips as well as other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, flash drives, memory cards and solid-state drives are now exempt from Tariffs.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1911055499287564716

The ancient art of war beat the novel art of deal, which only works if your opponent is small and defenseless.

 

[meadow_wind]

This thread... I don't know if we should laugh or cry

 

[Natus Videre]

US will tariff China on everything but the 99% of what they import

This thread... I don't know if we should laugh or cry

Better to laugh. Black (Tariff) Friday turns into Cyber (Chip) Monday... and we are nowhere near Thanksgiving!

 

[Serendipity]

You are right that the charts can reveal the truth and cut out the noise of the headlines. But charts are not magic. They show all this, including insider activity, because they show what people are doing, and markets are made up of people.

I would caution against adopting any deeply held beliefs on how things work, especially if you're less than 10 years studying it. So many people have a view that they know it all and that the market should do this, or should do that based on the tea leaves, and they all get ruined. Many times you truly believe in something, then later you see there's a bigger picture, like russian dolls always expanding.

It really would do all people well to let go of their emotions and biases in times like these. Don't get attached to one idea. Just calm down and let the universe show you what is going to happen, and don't try to force your own view onto reality.

Nothing is guaranteed, not even the charts and I didn't say that it is. If any chart analyst/trader is talking about certainties you shouldn't take him seriously, because good ones know it's all about probabilities, not certainties.

My main idea is that something big is planned/scheduled/likely even built in the charts, that's related to global markets and the show that's happening right now. And I believe it is just a smoke and mirrors show and a bigger players are running it behind the scenes, likely using a natural cycles (including that of the market charts themselves) and mass psychology, towards some kind of transformation of the global markets, that would be aligned with their long term plans.

A: Yes, things may get dire as summer approaches. Just sit tight and hang on! Goodbye.

My theory is that markets will rebound and have a really green "summer", an epic blow out of top phase (which is usually how large cycles end, before the ultimate fall. And that hands behind the scenes are aware of those cycles and are also pulling the strings of the show, which is just a show (but might get out of their hands, who knows) and thus not the real thing that's going on (like the tariffs), but more like just a narrative for the masses, and likely even an additional fuel to create a bigger spring for the green summer (summer is a phase of growth). Before the ultimate fall (crash of the traditional markets/end of the grand cycle which pushers and pullers behind the scenes are aware of).

Remember that almost always the majority (the thinking of the crowd) is wrong, and that is especially true in the case of the charts. Now there is so much fear, uncertainty and capitulation going on, and a bogus narrative of trade war, while at the same time stock markets chart is hugging the upper part of the historical channel and is exhibiting a similar behavior as prior to breaking out of the middle line of the channel in 1995 (sort of like a spring phase) and having a 'summer' phase until dotcom crash (fall). And take a notice what happened during 1929 bubble and crash - parabolic breakout of the channel to the up side and an epic crash then followed (breakout of the channel was a summer, which was then later followed by the fall). Is a parabolic breakout of the upper channel coming? A "summer" phase.

I made this chart just today. I wasn't even aware of this data until now - and it seems to be an additional piece of the puzzle that fits into the general idea/theory that I have in my mind (I'm not saying it's a fact, I'm saying it's the best picture I see based on the data I have).

Even Trump said that markets will recover. He knows more than the average Joe what's going on (remember that STS hierarchy is pyramidal in nature), but of course he doesn't understand the full picture and neither do I. But likely those at the top echelons of the pyramid do, and if that is the case, then it is natural to think that they would be trying to use this 'financial markets grand cycle end phase' as an opportunity to transform/reset/transition to a new type of financial system. It could be connected to XRP and Ripple the company like I wrote in some of my other posts, but I can't know that for sure (although the chart of XRP does look primed for some big positive news, but who knows, time will tell)

 

[SummerLite]

It really would do all people well to let go of their emotions and biases in times like these. Don't get attached to one idea. Just calm down and let the universe show you what is going to happen, and don't try to force your own view onto reality.

I really like this and it was what I was thinking just now. The man made world has mostly been a disappointment to me and I value being outside of that. Move into universe, expand awareness, let go, and be ok with not knowing what lies ahead since that is our true state anyway,. This tarot card has come to represent for me this understanding.

 

[Serendipity]

A: Yes, things may get dire as summer approaches. Just sit tight and hang on! Goodbye.

My theory is that markets will rebound and have a really green "summer", an epic parabolic blow out of top phase (which is usually how large cycles end). And that hands behind the scenes are aware of those cycles and are also pulling the strings of the show, which is just a show (like the tariffs), a narrative for the masses, and likely even an additional fuel to create a bigger spring for the green summer (summer is a phase of growth). Before the ultimate fall (crash of the traditional markets/end of the grand cycle which pushers and pullers behind the scenes are aware of).

Remember that almost always the majority (the thinking of the crowd) is wrong, and that is especially true in the case of the charts. Now there is so much fear, uncertainty and capitulation going on, and a bogus narrative of trade war, while at the same time stock markets chart is hugging the upper part of the historical channel and is exhibiting a similar behavior as prior to breaking out of the middle line of the channel in 1995 (sort of like a spring phase) and having a 'summer' phase until dotcom crash (fall). And take notice of what happened during 1929 bubble and crash - parabolic breakout of the channel to the upside and an epic crash that followed (breakout of the channel was a summer, which was followed by the fall). Is a parabolic breakout of the upper channel coming? A "summer" phase.

 

[axj]

Trump's statements lately have been so full of ego and narcissism - unless these statements were meant more as a joke. This is the latest:

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday, Trump proclaimed that “ultimately, we pretty much can do what we want to do.”

[...]

”The bond market’s going good. It had a little moment but I solved that problem very quickly. I’m very good at that stuff,” the president claimed.

When asked whether he feared that the sweeping tariffs could adversely affect the dollar’s global standing, Trump replied that it will “always” remain the “currency of choice.”

As for nations striving to wean themselves off of the US currency, “I would tell you that within about one phone call they would be back on the dollar,” the president asserted.

Speaking at a National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) dinner on Tuesday night, Trump said that dozens of countries “are calling us up, kissing my ass” to negotiate a way out of stiffer tariffs.

Trump gives advice to nations displeased with US tariffs

The US president has called the taxes he imposed on most countries “appropriate,” brushing off concerns over declining stock markets

www.rt.com

 

[Elisasheva]

Trump's statements lately have been so full of ego and narcissism - unless these statements were meant more as a joke.

I think that most of the time people who talk like that really think of themselves as some geniuses and have huge ego, and if they brush it off as a joke it's just to be safe from criticism (it's a trick called joke card which saves your face in case of failure).

 

[Corvus]

My theory is that markets will rebound and have a really green "summer", an epic parabolic blow out of top phase (which is usually how large cycles end). And that hands behind the scenes are aware of those cycles and are also pulling the strings of the show, which is just a show (like the tariffs), a narrative for the masses, and likely even an additional fuel to create a bigger spring for the green summer (summer is a phase of growth). Before the ultimate fall (crash of the traditional markets/end of the grand cycle which pushers and pullers behind the scenes are aware of).

Remember that almost always the majority (the thinking of the crowd) is wrong, and that is especially true in the case of the charts. Now there is so much fear, uncertainty and capitulation going on, and a bogus narrative of trade war, while at the same time stock markets chart is hugging the upper part of the historical channel and is exhibiting a similar behavior as prior to breaking out of the middle line of the channel in 1995 (sort of like a spring phase) and having a 'summer' phase until dotcom crash (fall). And take notice of what happened during 1929 bubble and crash - parabolic breakout of the channel to the upside and an epic crash that followed (breakout of the channel was a summer, which was followed by the fall). Is a parabolic breakout of the upper channel coming? A "summer" phase.

View attachment 107714

They did not say things will get better, but worse and no indication it will get better in summer for a while how the things are going and how it all comes in series and multiplying with time I am not so sure in it, would say it will be even worse in summer, but wait and see. When the clock starts ticking there is no way back.

 

[Serendipity]

They did not say things will get better, but worse and no indication it will get better in summer for a while how the things are going and how it all comes in series and multiplying with time I am not so sure in it, would say it will be even worse in summer, but wait and see. When the clock starts ticking there is no way back.

Most people are thinking like that, and that is the current narrative being used to describe this drop in the markets, which is relatively small in the grand scheme of the historical chart. And that is exactly why it will likely do the opposite (it's just an indicator, a counter indicator). Be greedy when others are fearful is a rule of the thumb when it comes to markets.

And the chart's historical behavior suggests a likelihood of the repeat of the breakout of the upper line of the historical channel (just like in 1920s but on a smaller scale), before the epic fall afterwards. The chart's history agrees with the current sentiment (overly fearful - which usually is preceding the uptrend).

A: Yes, things may get dire as summer approaches. Just sit tight and hang on! Goodbye.

Cs message seems to point to what I see too.
- things may get dire as summer approaches = global scare before the summer/historical growth period
-just sit tight and hang on = don't be shaken by the bogus panic narrative (remember it's just a show), but sit tight and when 'summer' comes 'hang on' (like during rollercoaster ride going up? wild volatile ride upwards ahead?)

Look at the chart similarity on the large time frame (3 monthly candles) between 1920s and today. And remember charts are doing their own things and have tendency to repeat the historical patterns/fractals, and almost always the big drop (grand cycle end drop) comes after a big parabolic 'blow of top' phase (which could be described as 'summer of the markets').

 

[Serendipity]

And notice the years difference and that it might be a 100 year cycle coming to an end/repeating.
And also the year 2030 from the agenda 2030 fits well in the time frame of the proposed end of 'markets summer period'/the top and reversal (like it was in 1929).

Carl said:

I would caution against adopting any deeply held beliefs on how things work, especially if you're less than 10 years studying it. So many people have a view that they know it all and that the market should do this, or should do that based on the tea leaves, and they all get ruined. Many times you truly believe in something, then later you see there's a bigger picture, like russian dolls always expanding.

I have around 8 years of studying the charts in depth. It's not 10 but I do have very high intelligence and pattern recognition skills and dot connecting skills, and I didn't just study the theory but lived through and practiced extensively and quite intensively through the market cycles and the emotional moods and narratives that accompany them (and are used to explain them), so my 8 years might be worth as someone's 20 years or more (it depends on the person). I'm confident I have knowledge/high level of understanding in this arena.

But like I said, I'm just sharing what I see (to be the most likely scenario and interpretation), it's not a gospel or a deeply held belief. More of an informed belief.