Potential USA Civil War is a rising topic

PopHistorian

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
I started this little bit of research before the current violent unrest in California. I'm curious to hear feedback from members.

I'd been observing and feeling that the left/right political divide (reality split) in the USA may be so deep that it is beyond mending to the point of restoring the USA the world recognizes. Not long ago, I brushed off notions of civil war mainly because there is no geographical separation among factions like there was between North (Union)and South (Confederacy) in the 1861-1865 US Civil War. In fact, the Cs said that 82% of presidential votes went to Trump in November, 2024, so there may be no significant area of land upon which leftists are actually in the majority. I've learned that geographical separation is not a necessary factor at all, nor is there need for a large percentage of people willing to fight physically.

Research notes are in the next post. But first, I looked up the Cs references to possible USA civil war (or internal revolution) in the transcripts. Let me know if I missed any.

12 November 2016
Q: (Joe) What was the real percentage of the popular vote that Trump got?
A: 63 percent.
Q: (Niall) What percentage of eligible voters actually voted?
A: 58
Q: (Joe) Did they give her the popular vote in an attempt to secure a win for her?
A: They are trying to foment revolution.
Q: (Joe) So they give her the popular vote so that all these people can say, "She won the popular vote. He's not my president!" And that's what all these people in the streets are using right now.
A: Yes

30 October 2021
Q: [...] (cinnamon) Is it likely that the cold civil war in the US becomes a hot civil war in the next two years? If it is likely, who or what starts the shooting? [...]
A: No
Q: (L) No to the hot civil war. I would say it's more likely to become a war between the people and the government.
A: Yes

8 April 2023
Q: (JEEP) Will the turmoil surrounding the Trump persecution lead to civil war / revolution?
A: It is certainly heading in that direction.

28 October 2023
Q: (Andromeda) Will there be a civil war in the US?
A: Not yet.
[...]
(L) That suggests there IS going to be a civil war in the US. Just not yet.
(Chu) Should we seriously consider moving?
A: That opportunity will present itself.

13 January 2024
Q: (Fallen_735) Are the Texas National Guard vs the border patrol (national guard kicking out border patrol and taking over in Eagle Pass, Texas) recent events part of the precursor stages of a possible civil war?
A: Could definitely trigger a larger conflict.
[...]
Q: (Jeep) Regarding Texas question: Possible civil war and/or state seceding from US?
A: Indeed!
[...]
(Joe) Well, what I was gonna ask is, what are the odds of a major conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, etc. happening this year? What are the chances?
A: Good.
Q: (Joe) So we're gonna have major Middle East war, a new pandemic...
(Niall) Secession in the United States, and possibly Civil war...
(Joe) ...and Israel.
(Andromeda) Probably an economic crash...
(L) And power grid failure.
(Chu) Yay...
A: Sounds like a theme park, eh?
 
I went looking for current references to potential USA civil war among podcasters, pundits, politicians, academics, journalists, even armchair philosophers. to see if they think civil war in the USA is a strong possibility, keeping in mind that speakers/writers may simply be attention seeking and self-aggrandizing in addition to having political motives. I noted only information and opinion that made sense to me, keeping human nature in mind. A bunch of people in both left and right factions addressed the subject directly (or close), like Rudyard Lynch, Andrew Limbong, Sergey Markov, Tim Pool, George Lang, Betsy Woodruff Swan, David Hackett Fischer and others. I noted the following.

- Historically, most civil wars do not have a strong geographical divide, especially at first, though factions coalesce and eventually cooperate and claim territory. Also historically, it is common that civil wars are considered revolutions by at least one faction, typically the government vs. some portion of the citizenry. So, there is nothing unusual that would rule out possibility that the USA could suffer civil war.
- Historical predictors (outside of foreign influence, which is arguably at play in the USA in the form of the globalist international bureaucracies) are not so easy to pin down, but David Hackett Fischer, Professor at Brandeis University and his book The Great Wave (1989) studied monetary inflation cycles in the West over the past thousand years and correlate certain inflation behaviors closely with civil wars. One of prime indicators appears to be a high number of people living too close to subsistence level and without great hope of getting ahead (being able to afford to buy a home, support a family, etc.) and there is a mountain of analysis of these conditions becoming entrenched and worsening in the UK, Canada, Australia, USA, and other developed nations.
- Per academics, civil war is preceded by a period of civil strife (which is amorphous in definition but usually includes politically motivated killings and other deaths, as well as sizes and frequencies of violent/destructive protests, lawfare, and a host of other issues), though strife doesn't always lead to war. The USA is arguably in such a strife period, particularly since Trump's first election.
- The bifurcation of American culture, politically, became stark with the first election of Trump, which coincided with a big surge in the prominence of alternative media, resulting in mainly two divergent perceptions of reality among the USA public. During covid lockdowns, alternative media's audience vastly grew and people en masse got sucked into media echo chambers like never before and have been in them ever since, deepening division.
- Bifurcation in the USA extends beyond internal social issues to foreign policy (Ukraine/Russia, Israel/Gaza, tariffs).
- Extreme bifurcation leads to the loudest extremist members of both factions mainly influencing thought, forming ideology, forcefully pushing policy, and attracting public attention within each faction. This forms a skewed public perception about their faction. This skew results in not just deeper bifurcation, but also leads to people in each faction to seek more to please the radical extremists within their own faction than seeking common ground and compromise with the opposing faction. This further leads to intra-factional discord and strife amid which few feel confident, strong, or comfortable. Thus, extreme bifurcation, in general, generates negative feedback loops that progressively raise tensions among nearly all, including those completely on the outside looking in. I think this is plainly evident. One can find numerous articles online describing discord within the Democratic party and within the Republican party. Of course, each faction likes to point out schisms among their opponents, claiming such discord is a sign of weakness.
- Street protests taking violent and destructive turns. We saw the incredible events of the George Floyd protests, including the burnings around the White House including St. John's Church at the end of May, 2020. We had the spectacle of January 6, 2021. And more recently the anti-Tesla vandalism and destruction of private property. Now we have the anti-ICE protests. Not that there haven't been other incidents that have been called terrorism by one side or the other between 2020 (and earlier) and now. Almost all extreme incidents have been claimed to be organized by elements of one faction or the other, suggesting organization and conspiracy.
- Advocacy for violence (or condoning or defending it) and terror in the press by media figures, politicians, celebrities and ordinary people among one or more political factions. Many examples of this are easily found on video.
- Recent wave of SWATtings in which leftists anonymously make extreme false claims of domestic criminality against publicly outspoken conservative neighbors to terrorize them.
- Administrative conflict evidenced by one political faction openly fighting another instead of serving the people (both main factions in the USA are working at cross purposes yet claiming they're serving the people).
- Escalation of administrative conflict such as unprecedented lower-court judicial injunctions, mayoral and governorial interference with federal law enforcement's duties, politicians openly claiming they are fighting the administration in power (again, rather than focusing on problems of the USA population), etc.
- Lawfare between factions and charges (and evidence) of "two-tiered justice" and selective law enforcement regarding interpretation of laws.
- Numerous claims among both factions that the other is violating the highest law, the Constitution.
- Current and former officials of the US gov't unilaterally visiting foreign leaders apparently to contradict the foreign policy of the sitting USA administration. This includes people like Lindsey Graham, Mike Pompeo in Ukraine. Glenn Ivey, Chris van Hollen, Yassamin Ansari, Maxine Dexter, and Maxwell Frost in El Salvador. Potential Logan Act violations.
- Any number of USA institutions (education, law, government) could be acting as dams to restrain the floods of conflict, but none are doing so.
- Journalists, academics, politicians increasingly raising the question, "is this how civil war starts?"
- Claims on both sides that opposing political leaders are purely evil. This includes unprecendentedly hyperbolic claims such as that President Trump is literally a Russian employee, and these come from current or former members of US intel agencies and repeated by media figures and politicians. Historical notion of loyal opposition is virtually gone.
- Impeachments (during first term) followed by politically motivated attempts to prosecute and imprison a president, Trump.
- After Trump left office in 2021, continued attempts to prosecute him and make him ineligible to hold political office.
- Legal attacks on prominent Trump supporters before, during and after his first term (like Flynn, Bannon, Giuliani, Manafort).
- Criminally charging a president's, Trump's, lawyer, which is extreme and arguably unconstitutional. Jenna Ellis was charged in Georgia with being part of a criminal conspiracy becase she represented Trump.
- Two assassination attempts against a president, Trump, in his second term, whether rogue or organized, investigations of which were muddied.
- Ideologically one-sided social issues in the USA have, along party lines, flared (or been inflamed) enormously in recent years over religion, race, immigration, gun ownership, abortion, sexual orientation, transgenderism, health and medical issues especially covid response and vaccines, education, history, etc.
- Academia so one-sided. It's possible that the USA has never seen academia in general so involved, and in direct conflict with government before.
- Pre-civil war conditions typically involve one faction being far more physically violent in the beginning. In the USA, physical agression is coming primarily from the political left:
-- When pro-right demonstrators organized, Antifa brutalized them. But the opposite isn't widely true.
--- Trump did not invoke the Insurrection Act during first term to stop the riots.
--- Trump did not use federal authorities to round up far-left agitators.
--- Trump did not insist on the arrest of leftist attorneys or journalists.
-- When pro-right speakers turn up at universities, especially, they're threatened by mobs.
- Similarities to the civil strife experienced in the USA prior to the 1861 Civil War.
-- When Civil War started started in 1861, in general, no one believed a civil war was starting and even laughed off the notion until the Battle of Bull Run (First Battle of Manassas) actually unfolded.
-- It's beginning to look like Trump is in a civil war situation in that to get anything done or even to maintain order he many need to become more like the authoritarian dictator his opponents say he is. By making the case that he is on a war footing, Trump may need to make difficult decisions that clash with what principles of Americanism, at least domestically, are supposed to be. The case is made (repeatedly by several) that Abraham Lincoln made such choices, particularly by arresting much of the Maryland state legislators who obstructed the movement of Union troops (just one example of a civil wartime extreme).

An argument can be made that the USA is already in a time of war because of relatively newly extended definitions of war (4th, 5th and 6th generation warfare), which account for technological advancements that alter our perception of war, such as using communication tech to influence opposition, and ever-present potential for weaponization of (publicly) little-known technology never before employed in warfare. Warfare can be said to exist when one side responds to another in kind, in equal measure, with similar tactics, whether directly physical or not.

Thoughts?
 
Thoughts?
Nicely put. Here is a little poem to illustrate the dire situation!

United States of Migranterica
United Cartels of Gunamerica
United Crimes of Bankerica

United Credits of Debiterica
United Drugs of Pharmerica
United Depressions of Humanerica
United Poverties of Richerica
United Abuses of Eliterica
United Emissions of Greenerica
United Foods of Geneterica
United Controls of Artificialerica
United Wars of Dominerica
United Vaccines of Cloterica
United Flavors of Genderica
United Agencies of Destroyerica
United Lies of Trutherica
United Divisions of Conquerica
United Recipes of Disasterica.

(L) Is there anything we need to know or ask? Consider it asked to help us out through this turmoil...

A: Things will get worse before they get better. Stay alert and use knowledge!!! Goodbye.
 
I went looking for current references to potential USA civil war among podcasters, pundits, politicians, academics, journalists, even armchair philosophers. to see if they think civil war in the USA is a strong possibility, keeping in mind that speakers/writers may simply be attention seeking and self-aggrandizing in addition to having political motives. I noted only information and opinion that made sense to me, keeping human nature in mind. A bunch of people in both left and right factions addressed the subject directly (or close), like Rudyard Lynch, Andrew Limbong, Sergey Markov, Tim Pool, George Lang, Betsy Woodruff Swan, David Hackett Fischer and others. I noted the following.

- Historically, most civil wars do not have a strong geographical divide, especially at first, though factions coalesce and eventually cooperate and claim territory. Also historically, it is common that civil wars are considered revolutions by at least one faction, typically the government vs. some portion of the citizenry. So, there is nothing unusual that would rule out possibility that the USA could suffer civil war.
- Historical predictors (outside of foreign influence, which is arguably at play in the USA in the form of the globalist international bureaucracies) are not so easy to pin down, but David Hackett Fischer, Professor at Brandeis University and his book The Great Wave (1989) studied monetary inflation cycles in the West over the past thousand years and correlate certain inflation behaviors closely with civil wars. One of prime indicators appears to be a high number of people living too close to subsistence level and without great hope of getting ahead (being able to afford to buy a home, support a family, etc.) and there is a mountain of analysis of these conditions becoming entrenched and worsening in the UK, Canada, Australia, USA, and other developed nations.
- Per academics, civil war is preceded by a period of civil strife (which is amorphous in definition but usually includes politically motivated killings and other deaths, as well as sizes and frequencies of violent/destructive protests, lawfare, and a host of other issues), though strife doesn't always lead to war. The USA is arguably in such a strife period, particularly since Trump's first election.
- The bifurcation of American culture, politically, became stark with the first election of Trump, which coincided with a big surge in the prominence of alternative media, resulting in mainly two divergent perceptions of reality among the USA public. During covid lockdowns, alternative media's audience vastly grew and people en masse got sucked into media echo chambers like never before and have been in them ever since, deepening division.
- Bifurcation in the USA extends beyond internal social issues to foreign policy (Ukraine/Russia, Israel/Gaza, tariffs).
- Extreme bifurcation leads to the loudest extremist members of both factions mainly influencing thought, forming ideology, forcefully pushing policy, and attracting public attention within each faction. This forms a skewed public perception about their faction. This skew results in not just deeper bifurcation, but also leads to people in each faction to seek more to please the radical extremists within their own faction than seeking common ground and compromise with the opposing faction. This further leads to intra-factional discord and strife amid which few feel confident, strong, or comfortable. Thus, extreme bifurcation, in general, generates negative feedback loops that progressively raise tensions among nearly all, including those completely on the outside looking in. I think this is plainly evident. One can find numerous articles online describing discord within the Democratic party and within the Republican party. Of course, each faction likes to point out schisms among their opponents, claiming such discord is a sign of weakness.
- Street protests taking violent and destructive turns. We saw the incredible events of the George Floyd protests, including the burnings around the White House including St. John's Church at the end of May, 2020. We had the spectacle of January 6, 2021. And more recently the anti-Tesla vandalism and destruction of private property. Now we have the anti-ICE protests. Not that there haven't been other incidents that have been called terrorism by one side or the other between 2020 (and earlier) and now. Almost all extreme incidents have been claimed to be organized by elements of one faction or the other, suggesting organization and conspiracy.
- Advocacy for violence (or condoning or defending it) and terror in the press by media figures, politicians, celebrities and ordinary people among one or more political factions. Many examples of this are easily found on video.
- Recent wave of SWATtings in which leftists anonymously make extreme false claims of domestic criminality against publicly outspoken conservative neighbors to terrorize them.
- Administrative conflict evidenced by one political faction openly fighting another instead of serving the people (both main factions in the USA are working at cross purposes yet claiming they're serving the people).
- Escalation of administrative conflict such as unprecedented lower-court judicial injunctions, mayoral and governorial interference with federal law enforcement's duties, politicians openly claiming they are fighting the administration in power (again, rather than focusing on problems of the USA population), etc.
- Lawfare between factions and charges (and evidence) of "two-tiered justice" and selective law enforcement regarding interpretation of laws.
- Numerous claims among both factions that the other is violating the highest law, the Constitution.
- Current and former officials of the US gov't unilaterally visiting foreign leaders apparently to contradict the foreign policy of the sitting USA administration. This includes people like Lindsey Graham, Mike Pompeo in Ukraine. Glenn Ivey, Chris van Hollen, Yassamin Ansari, Maxine Dexter, and Maxwell Frost in El Salvador. Potential Logan Act violations.
- Any number of USA institutions (education, law, government) could be acting as dams to restrain the floods of conflict, but none are doing so.
- Journalists, academics, politicians increasingly raising the question, "is this how civil war starts?"
- Claims on both sides that opposing political leaders are purely evil. This includes unprecendentedly hyperbolic claims such as that President Trump is literally a Russian employee, and these come from current or former members of US intel agencies and repeated by media figures and politicians. Historical notion of loyal opposition is virtually gone.
- Impeachments (during first term) followed by politically motivated attempts to prosecute and imprison a president, Trump.
- After Trump left office in 2021, continued attempts to prosecute him and make him ineligible to hold political office.
- Legal attacks on prominent Trump supporters before, during and after his first term (like Flynn, Bannon, Giuliani, Manafort).
- Criminally charging a president's, Trump's, lawyer, which is extreme and arguably unconstitutional. Jenna Ellis was charged in Georgia with being part of a criminal conspiracy becase she represented Trump.
- Two assassination attempts against a president, Trump, in his second term, whether rogue or organized, investigations of which were muddied.
- Ideologically one-sided social issues in the USA have, along party lines, flared (or been inflamed) enormously in recent years over religion, race, immigration, gun ownership, abortion, sexual orientation, transgenderism, health and medical issues especially covid response and vaccines, education, history, etc.
- Academia so one-sided. It's possible that the USA has never seen academia in general so involved, and in direct conflict with government before.
- Pre-civil war conditions typically involve one faction being far more physically violent in the beginning. In the USA, physical agression is coming primarily from the political left:
-- When pro-right demonstrators organized, Antifa brutalized them. But the opposite isn't widely true.
--- Trump did not invoke the Insurrection Act during first term to stop the riots.
--- Trump did not use federal authorities to round up far-left agitators.
--- Trump did not insist on the arrest of leftist attorneys or journalists.
-- When pro-right speakers turn up at universities, especially, they're threatened by mobs.
- Similarities to the civil strife experienced in the USA prior to the 1861 Civil War.
-- When Civil War started started in 1861, in general, no one believed a civil war was starting and even laughed off the notion until the Battle of Bull Run (First Battle of Manassas) actually unfolded.
-- It's beginning to look like Trump is in a civil war situation in that to get anything done or even to maintain order he many need to become more like the authoritarian dictator his opponents say he is. By making the case that he is on a war footing, Trump may need to make difficult decisions that clash with what principles of Americanism, at least domestically, are supposed to be. The case is made (repeatedly by several) that Abraham Lincoln made such choices, particularly by arresting much of the Maryland state legislators who obstructed the movement of Union troops (just one example of a civil wartime extreme).

An argument can be made that the USA is already in a time of war because of relatively newly extended definitions of war (4th, 5th and 6th generation warfare), which account for technological advancements that alter our perception of war, such as using communication tech to influence opposition, and ever-present potential for weaponization of (publicly) little-known technology never before employed in warfare. Warfare can be said to exist when one side responds to another in kind, in equal measure, with similar tactics, whether directly physical or not.

Thoughts?
I can almost see a revolt against Academia being a trigger. 1st, there is rising anger and increasing distrust toward academic/mainstream medicine. 2nd, there is incredible anger around the predatory student loan situation, with many young people unable (and/or unwilling) to make payments, find jobs, etc. A whole class of young people feel cheated of their futures by the system. Not to mention that campuses are already a bit of a tinderbox around some other issues in the so-called Land of the Free.
I see all this coming together against the establishment, rather than as a general social divide.
And in the situations I mentioned, it's not just those personally affected by such adversities, but also their families, landlords and employers that are feeling some pain.
As for any martial law situation, young military members are likely to have similar sympathies.
Potential targets:
Healthcare institutions
Universities
Lenders
Publishing houses
Media outlets
 
I see all this coming together against the establishment, rather than as a general social divide.
I don't think enough Americans are sufficiently awake for that. The bifurcation and echo-chamber effect means they won't unite. I came across discussions and one informal street poll about whether a civil war would be geographical, racial, revolutionary (people vs. government), etc. Nothing seemed compelling, but I definitely do not think people will unite against the government. If one politicdal faction went to war with government it would the one out of power, the Democrats, but the Cs have said that only 18% of voters were in that camp for the presidential election of November, 2024. Trouble is, thanks to the media and baked election results, they think they are half the nation to begin with, and they also think that most Trump voters regret their vote, which seems doubtful. That's dangerous.

I excluded what looked like trashy, propagandistic, one-issue discussions like a civil war would be over shootings and firearms ownership:
 
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To support that civil war is a rising topic, I found plenty of recent polls, but none went into reasons why war would occur. They seemed only to want to gauge opinion about whether it could happen soon, and tended to break down answers by age, race, religion, gender, and political affiliation.

Do Americans think a civil war is likely soon? Seems about half do.

Marist poll - Nearly 50% of Americans think that civil war will come within their lifetime (without reason why), opinions vary depending on age, race, gender, political affiliation:

Rasmussen poll - no reasons given, but roughly 50% of Americans believe it's near, broken down by race and political affiliation:

Ipsos/University of California at Davis Poll - no reasons given, shows >50% Americans think it will happen in "near future:"

Economist/YouGov poll - no clear reaons, but 43% of American think civil war within ten years. This article also repeats several of the key findings I posted above:
 
An argument can be made that the USA is already in a time of war because of relatively newly extended definitions of war (4th, 5th and 6th generation warfare), which account for technological advancements that alter our perception of war, such as using communication tech to influence opposition, and ever-present potential for weaponization of (publicly) little-known technology never before employed in warfare.

Given Laura's last conversation with Grok it seems to indicate that in the riots there is some influence of the Hyperdimensional Control System STS aimed at laying the foundation for a police state in the United States based on the technological yoke, for example, Palantir that has already been used successfully by Israel against Hamas.

Agents of chaos have moved their chips as was the case of Laura Loomer and her much commented post yesterday. Loomer has used her platform to express strong support for Israel and promote narratives that align with Zionism.

IMG_20250609_084725_467.jpg

President Trump is aware of the situation and released a message saying: "Paid insurrectionists" Who? most likely George Soros.

Geopolitician Alfredo Jalife argues that Soros uses NGOs as instruments to finance movements and campaigns that seek to destabilize governments not aligned with the interests of neoliberalism and Western powers, especially the United States. He claims that these revolutions are "soft coup" strategies designed to install regimes aligned with the financial and geopolitical interests of Soros and his supposed allies, such as the CIA and the Rothschild family. Jalife also points out that Soros supports these initiatives under the façade of promoting democracy, human rights and justice, but in reality he is pursuing economic and political control objectives.

Tempers are even flaring against the Mexican government. There is an AI-generated video that the agents of chaos are using to claim that President Claudia Sheinbaum is calling for protests in the United States:


That is false. In the original video (min. 43:57) , Sheinbaum stresses the importance of remittances to Mexican families and the work they will do with President Trump's government to stop the remittance tax from happening because this would represent double taxation which would then lead migrants to use informal channels to send money to Mexico, possibly with that money falling into the hands of organized crime and cartels. In fact, the Trump administration has taken the request into consideration and a reduction of the tax from 5% to 3.5% was achieved, which Sheinbaum and Ambassador Esteban Moctezuma considered a breakthrough although not definitive.

As for the riots, it seems that only one shot is needed for everything to go to hell.

 
During the civil war in Rome, there was no necessary geographic distribution of factions, no? Plus, I think that the rural/urban divide, and red state/blue state divide is already quite pronounced. Anyways, I read this piece, which speculates on the rise of an American Caesar in a coming civil war.


What to Do When Caesar Comes​


written byCharles Haywood

Caesar-Picture-7.jpg


(Image by Daniel Voshart; see note)

[This article was published last year in the new magazine Asylum. I print it at our main site for those who may have missed it, and I am also including, for the first time for this piece, audio and video versions. It is a companion to my On the Future Ascent of a Caesar.]

Is a Caesar, an authoritarian reconstructor of our institutions, soon to step onto the American stage? A betting man would say yes. The debilities of our society are manifold and will inevitably result in fracture and chaos. History tells us that such times call forth ambitious and driven men, who in the West usually aspire to reconstruction and dynasty, not mere extraction, what is usually featured in primitive societies. As Napoleon said of his accession to Emperor, “I came across the crown of France lying in the street, and I picked it up with my sword.” In human events, past performance is always a key predictor of future results. But neither you nor I is going to be Caesar, so this truth raises the crucial question for us—what to do when Caesar comes?

(Credit for the image of Gaius Julius Caesar to Daniel Voshart, whose photorealistic images of Roman emperors (and one proto-emperor), generated by computer-analyzing extant images, are very valuable and interesting.)]

Michael Anton has recently popularized, in his seminal book The Stakes, the concepts of Blue Caesar and Red Caesar, authoritarians of Left and Right. If Blue Caesar were to take power, that would be very bad for all decent Americans, and we could put into practice many of the tips from Robert Conquest’s 1985 What to Do When the Russians Come, a serious book of advice about what to do had the Soviets occupied America.

But I am not afraid of Blue Caesar; his rule would be very clownish and very brief. No Left authoritarian system has ever been even slightly competent; a system based on an ideology that denies reality is doomed from inception, eating its seed corn from the beginning, and that is particularly true of today’s uniquely insane American Left. That none of today’s prominent American leftists can be imagined as Caesar without laughing proves this. Even a new, highly competent man of the Left, a modern Lenin or Stalin, could gain no traction today; he would be unable to convincingly shed his white privilege or to adequately elevate the voices of crying wine aunts, and thus nobody on the Left would follow him. If a determined or desperate man of the Left were to ignore this truth, and attempt to override the fatties and the furries by force, very soon a circular, but intersectional, firing squad would leave all dead on the ground.

Red Caesar, on the other hand, is likely. Despite his moniker, he will not be driven by an ideology (and Red Caesar will, without any doubt whatsoever, be a he). He will probably be some measure of realist and opportunist, but realism makes him Right, because realism means he will reject out of hand the entire panoply of today’s Left beliefs. He won’t have any familiar ideology, because there are no ideologies remaining on the Right (Randian objectivism and Austrian-school economics do not count). Red Caesar will have focuses, hobbyhorses, opinions, favored groups, and angles, to be sure, but he is unlikely to be the slave of an ideology, any more than his namesake, Julius Caesar, was.

Or is that the correct namesake? I think only in part. Julius Caesar broke the Roman world, or rather mercifully opened the arteries of a dying Republic. Octavian, Augustus Caesar, after a variety of succession struggles, rebuilt a new thing, informed by the wisdom of the old. He was helped by luck, talent, and personality, to be sure, but he was the indispensable man in the transition from dead-end Republic to successful Empire. Which of these two men best represents Red Caesar? Hopefully both. We cannot know what Julius Caesar would have done with his power, and perhaps he would have taken a track similar to Augustus, but we can hope for some combination of our two historical precedents, resulting in an Augustan Age.

Is there a third option, Purple Caesar, who will try to split the difference? No, not for us. Our differences cannot be split; there can be only one. The insanity of today’s Left, which is merely the inevitable end stage of Enlightenment thought and which will be reached again and again until that dead end in human history is destroyed and cauterized, cannot coexist with reality and a healthy society. Yet the Left will never stop pushing towards its chimerical utopia, so dividing the baby, keeping some Left principles while rejecting others, would merely delay the inevitable final confrontation and disposition of Left ideas to the trash bin. It’d be like putting a scented bandage on a gangrenous limb—you may not see or smell the trouble anymore, but you still have a big problem.

True, Caesar will not be a Right restorationist, which will make some sad. He will have no statues of William F. Buckley and Abraham Lincoln in his palace; he will not fulfil fantasies of integralists. He’ll just ignore Right restorationists. They are no threat to him—the only restorationist threat to Caesar will be the American Left, which has held power for nearly a hundred years. As to today’s Right, likely he will, like Francisco Franco and António Salazar, coerce and browbeat all elements of the Right, and the few remaining centrists, into a party of national unity, where Bronze Age Pervert and Adrian Vermeule will be made to get along.

Let’s not get too excited about Caesar, though. This will be a high-risk, high-reward time of history; such times inevitably are. As with his namesakes, though we tend to gloss over their sins, he will be unpleasant in many ways, and in more ways than we would like. For the Left, certainly, he will be very unpleasant indeed. He may retain the rule of law, as Franco did, but even then, both the interests of justice and of Caesar himself (cementing power most of all) will dictate punishments. But in truth the rule of law is likely to bend, if not break at some places and times; Caesarism doesn’t work in the long term unless the Left is wholly gone and totally discredited, and Caesar will, at least sometimes, therefore resort to proscription and extra-legal action, as did Augustus, despite his more benevolent later reputation. Most Left leaders will be exiled, if they’re lucky, and regardless, for all the Left, Caesar will be a nightmare—lustration and rustication is the best many can hope for, and the rest will have to earn an honest living. (Those who merely tend Left by fashion will quickly adopt the new fashion, and forget their former opinions.) But who cares about the Left’s fate? They’ve earned their reward. My question is how innocent, normal Americans will be affected by Caesar.

The average unimportant person, who is not ideological and is not a parasite, won’t have to worry much about Caesar. In fact, his life is likely to improve. If he works for a large corporation, true, the old owners may be expropriated, but so what? The entire odious Human Resources department will disappear, after all, replaced with a small team of payroll clerks. He will no longer be forced to attend anti-white hate sessions and made to watch while those far inferior to him are elevated above him on the basis of preferred characteristics. Nobody will watch his social media for infractions against the ever-shifting ideology of his masters. His taxes may go down. What’s not to like? Yes, the switchover to the new system may have cost him dear, the more so if it was violent, and yes, other unsettling changes may come over time, but his daily existence will, on the whole, improve. True, if you make your living, as a huge number of Americans do, as a parasite, performing some non-productive activity that adds nothing to social capital, you will likely have to find a new occupation less to your taste, but that’s a feature, not a bug.

We should note, though, that during the time of Caesar’s establishment, and after, the common people will have an important collective role. We should not forget how the common people, putatively without power or role, made the position of Caesar’s assassins untenable, and therefore ensured a new thing for a new time. The support of public opinion is a useful, nearly indispensable, tool for transition from a man leading a change from one form of government to another. As José Ortega y Gasset said, force follows public opinion, even where popular sovereignty is not a principle of government, and Caesar will need to have, and maintain, force to achieve his goals. If well-done, this symbiosis between the common people and Caesar creates a beneficial feedback loop, without directly involving any of the common people in governance.

It’s the important person who should have more concern than the average or common person. In such times, a higher profile is both opportunity and risk. Those not average, due to wealth, talent, or status, who are not Left will still find that neutrality is mostly not an option, even if they do not seek gain by getting in Caesar’s good graces. They will have to bend the knee, whether they want to or not, for not doing so risks being seen as potentially dangerous to Caesar, and that is, well, dangerous. More direct dubious effects are certain as well. For example, Caesar will almost certainly face economic crises, both during the takeover and as irrationality is squeezed out of the system. He will therefore have a strong incentive to fund himself by seizing property of the wealthy. Perhaps seizing the property of dead or exiled leftists will be enough; it was in Roman times. But a rich man should fear Caesar making requests, that are not requests, for “contributions,” and a talented man should ponder whether he may be “encouraged” to lend his talents to the new order. Caesar can’t afford to have his system feature too much such instability for long, but for some time at least the upper orders will rest uneasy, even if they are supporters of the new order.

Complicating all his actions, and a new thing in history, is that Caesar will face a nearly irresistible urge to adopt today’s surveillance state, in both its government and private manifestations, for his own ends. The totalitarian temptation is very strong, and because Caesar will know that, for a long time at least, his life depends on maintaining his power, he is unlikely to refuse to use any tool, no matter how objectively problematic it is for keeping a decent society. For the same reason, he will likely adopt the gun seizure goals of today’s Left, perhaps limiting firearm ownership to those enrolled in supportive organized militias. This would not be the future American gun rights advocates wanted, but the American habit of unbridled private weapon ownership is, despite its very apparent virtues for us today, a historical anomaly, and for obvious reasons. These actions, combined with a turn to paranoia (not uncommon for authoritarians as they age) or a defective successor (equally, if not more, common) could easily result in a society not much better than the one in which we now live, obviating any benefit we got from Caesar. That would be unfortunate.

Beyond these and other costs and risks for individual citizens, Caesar will face many management problems, the poisonous fruits of our current system, dealing with which will directly affect the populace, changing their relative positions. For example, if Caesar rules a land more or less contiguous with today’s America, he will face a core problem of any large country—diversity is the very opposite of strength. Yes, the citizenry’s daily life will become largely depoliticized (both because the average person would have no role whatsoever in politics and because politicization of everything is a project of the then-disappeared Left), removing that corrosive element, but many cultural, racial, regional, and economic differences would remain. The likely result, encouraged by Caesar, would be a move to some type of organization resembling the Ottoman millet system, where citizens self-organize on the basis of what they regard as core characteristics, and interact with the government on that basis, with considerable self-rule within their communities. Think the Amish or the Hasidim writ large. The problem, of course, is that this is not to the taste of many. But that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

Still, such a communitarian reorganization may not be enough to allow stable rule; even with its decent historical pedigree, quasi-decentralization has no successful modern analogue, and Caesar may have a centralizing impulse, a desire to bind the new Americans together more strongly. He won’t be able to sell the old myth of America as a propositional nation with popular sovereignty. So what could he replace it with? In practice, some type of corporatism embedded in a myth of the nation, probably, and maybe he will come up with some new binding belief. He could push Space as a unifying action, the new, high frontier, or he could push some kind of refreshed national consciousness to override differences, or, less pleasantly, he could force homogeneity by pushing out elements of the society deemed, perhaps artificially, incompatible with his new vision. The risks here are high, though the rewards are, too, if the right path is found.

Whatever other actions he takes, though, Caesar’s first management problem will be to reverse our current grossly inadequate birth rates. Population decline will very shortly destroy any society, not least because dynamism is purely a function of a society skewed toward the youth (so long as they are formed in virtue), and our low birth rates are a function of corrosive autonomic individualism, which a wise Caesar will see is incompatible with civilizational success, and thus with his success, and glory. If he can succeed in fixing this problem, which would require a wholesale revision of the opinions of the populace, away from dead Left doctrines to virtue, he can likely succeed in other reality-based revisions. If he can’t, nothing he does will matter anyway. It’s a good test for his rule.

Again, though, let’s not have too rosy a vision. Even though a wise Caesar will restore virtue to the citizenry, there is no reason to assume Caesar himself will be any paragon of virtue. If he begins with virtue, he will very likely be corrupted, at least to some degree, over time. He is unlikely to be a Cincinnatus or a George Washington, a man who gave up his power by choice in his prime. He’s not even likely to be Sulla, who retired from being dictator and while dictator famously, despite his many enemies, regularly appeared in public without a bodyguard. This is, perhaps, unfortunate, but it cannot be helped. Better a dubious ruler than a wholly rotten society that is heading into the pit of chaos.

Every political change is a throw of the dice; utopian visions are for fools, but some stepping into the unknown must be done, and that with optimism and hope. There is no shame in staking our future on a chance. Better that we choose action, and even odds for a greatly improved society, with little chance for a worse society, than doing nothing, and getting a ninety-nine percent odds of our debased current society hurtling downward along existing trend lines. What to do when Caesar comes? In short—celebrate, and then get down to dealing with new reality, each doing our best, as we are situated, to advance our society and our fellow citizens. This simple vision was once assumed to be our collective goal, and with luck, we can build on the lessons of the past to create a renewed future.

(Credit for the image of Gaius Julius Caesar to Daniel Voshart, whose photorealistic images of Roman emperors (and one proto-emperor), generated by computer-analyzing extant images, are very valuable and interesting.)]

It's 2029. Trump (as Marius) did all in his power to stop the Sullan Left from completely destroying the American dream. He exits the stage, having done all he could for his people in a time of increasing conflict, complexity and natural disasters. The San Andreas fault has already unzipped, and every Pacific city from Anchorage to LA are all in ruins, the Cascadia Conspiracy effectively wiped off the map. The chaos has convinced many that democracy is as outdated as the steam engine.

JD Vance has just been elected as the new Caesar with National Guard posted at each paper ballot station. His experience serving under Trump/Marius and his alliance with Thiel/Crassus paid off. Many viewed him as being in the Technocrats' pocket - but did he shrewdly make this alliance to enter power and then enact his own agenda? AI is Pompey, having already successfully conquered the pirates in the Sea of Information. He's ready to share power - for a time, at least.

Vance deploys Palantir's tools, consolidating the support of the American population and restructuring, by force, the Imperial Republic along the lines of the harmonized hierarchy of the ancient West. Meritocracy, land for veterans of the EU War, rule by expertise, and protectionist, productive economics. Many call him the new Hitler - on the right, with appreciation for his baby blue eyes, and on the left, with horror at his white skin.

Just as tensions with BRICS+ reach a boiling point, Vance is assassinated, and we suffer a massive timeline shock, seeing our ancient and technologically-advanced ancestors (known in Roman times as the Manes) return - either from their hiding underground, or from space. These hybrids in disguise are here to save us from ourselves.

A new religion appears for the wretched of the earth.
 
Since, at the moment, this has the appearance of growing legs, I'm watching the "names" "groups" and "agencies" that are involved.

I was trying to pick out, names, money, etc., and actually lost interest is doing so, as "to me" it is obviously manufactured, and the pundits and politicians have already been given their scripts.

In the recent Robert Malone article on sott it mentioned "Enrage to Engage" as a tactic that seems to be the present MO of so much going on around us.

Iv read that this is: The Mexican Nationals, The Marxists, The NGOs, and of coarse the Dems vs the Feds.

I am suspicious of ICE actions in making arrests. Only a question, but why don't they stick with getting the baddies, why arrest day laborers at Home Depot, and sweatshop workers in the clothing district? Not enough gang members and cartel baddies, (or possible ME sleeper cells?) or were they ordered to antagonize the common family people...which are part of us, and whom we need, and always have needed. Why go after the least problematic, and ignore the most problematic. How about getting some Human traffickers maybe?

What's NOT happening:

Drones? They have them. Probably 10s of thousands of them. But not using them. DEW——not using them. So, what, just a test? "Enrage to Engage"? Is it a STO/STS test of the human-cosmic-connection system?

"IF" this or some other issue breaks out into "a thing" then IMO the American people in general, and the vast majority of the newbies from other countries are not going to have much interest in fighting. It would be more of one gov entity vs another gov entity, and one mercenary army against another mercenary army. All with wonderfully patriotic names. With the purpose of depopulation and control of what's left.

If Feds vs Dems comes to be, then I assume Oregon and Washington would join the resistance. And you could call it "something" and if in the next few weeks they settle on calling it a "Mexico" thing it could find its way to San Diego, then the Mexican cartels in Mexico that they have already established as terrorist, and so forth.

If its just a test of our will, and to see how easily we can be Engaged, it could dissipate.
 
Can "blue" states and cities become sufficiently radicalized to start an armed conflict and/or secession in earnest? Since they seem be a minority of about 20% and the police and military are not under their control at this time, there does not seem to be much of a chance for a real civil war.

It seems that a civil war was planned by assassinating Trump last summer, because in that case you would have basically 80% of the population against the police and military forces controlled by the other side. So it looks like a civil war may have been averted or postponed with the "program change".
 
I don't think you see a full on Civil War until the economic collapse happens. Let's get real...a lot of these demonstrators are being paid and a lot of this is staged. Sure there are a LOT of people who hate Trump right now, but the majority of Americans will yell at their TVs while being completely docile. Isolated riots with paid agitators does not make for a Civil War in a nation where people are spoiled rotten vis a vis much of the world.

When the economy crashes, especially if it is perceived to be due to the tariffs (a crash was probably coming anyway, the business uncertainty from the tariffs just accelerates things and intensifies the problem) and people start experiencing real hardship, when and if that happens I think things get real. But even then it might not be a full on Civil War because I think the US milltary would eventually crush any short term violent rebellion and make an example of them, especially after what we saw happened when Trump let the protests get out of control in 2020. I mean he literally let them occupy city blocks in Portland! I doubt that happens again and people underestimate what our military CAN do with modern weapons when given the authority to use them.

I think for civil war to work in the US you need a political divide in the military itself, which would have been much more likely during a Biden regime since the rank and file troops probably hated his guts and most of the gun owners are probably Trump loyalists now. Trump would have to push things way too far (vaccine mandates, a national draft for a war in the Ukraine, etc.) I think for there to be a pushback in the military and from the average gun toting American. I think a more likely scenario is civil unrest, not a full civil war, with a chance of Trump declaring martial law and the constitution being put on hold, which has always been my fear with Trump. If you want a military dictatorship in the US, you bring in not some leftist, but a "gun supporting, pro military" president willing to go after leftists who most of the country is probably sick of with their DEI and other bs. That has been my fear all along. My mother has gone full Qanon as a boomer and literally supports EVERYTHING he does as 5D chess, no matter how blantantly stupid or disgusting it is (like supporting Israel in the Gaza genocide). A lot of the nation on the right with the most guns is probably in that camp. Having Trump come in is the perfect strategy if you want to ACTUALLY start a war with Russia/China or move people more into the digital ghetto with companies like Palantir.
 
I will allow myself to slightly dilute all this serious research in a frivolous way.

On the other hand, in the very recent past, it was in the United States that every problem of both international and domestic nature was seriously declared to be Putin's machinations. Why doesn't anyone say that now? I feel like I'm missing something familiar. I'll fill in the gap.
Protesters in the United States noticed an unexpected symbol (VIDEO)

Evidence has been found that the protests in Los Angeles were organized by Putin personally.

One of the protesters against the deportation of migrants in Los Angeles wrapped himself in the flag of the USSR.

Another Rambo hit three policemen at once.

Я позволю себе чуть-чуть разбавить все эти серьезные исследования в несерьезную сторону.
С другой стороны в самом недавнем прошлом именно в США каждая проблема и международного и внутреннего рода на полном серьезе объявлялись происками Путина. Почему теперь этого никто не говорит? Мне как будто не хватает чего то привычного. Я восполню пробел.
 
Since the earlier reports of this "thing" were a bit dodgy, I have checked on the validity of the claimed as some of it seemed unnecessarily inflammatory on zerohedge's part. This is the end of the day 5pm CA time. The marines are NOT deployed, but on stand by at 29 palms, and the 2,000 national guard troops are actually in place in 3 location in LA. Mid-day it was to be 500 marines and they upped it to 700 but they are just on stand by for now.

"It is unclear what the Marines will be tasked with once in LA - as they are prohibited from conducting law enforcement activity such as making arrests unless Trump invokes the Insurrection Act (after spending the last two days calling the protests 'insurrectionists."

Update: Full Marine Battalion Of 700 Deploying To Los Angeles As Protests Continue​


 
Let me know if I missed any.

Only one other quote comes to mind:

(Joe) In the US, there are certain states - notably Florida and Texas - which have been exemplary in their pushback against this Covid nonsense. They didn't lock down, they opened and returned to normal more quickly, etc. That's kind of strange in a sense because you wouldn't expect that to come from the US - or at least we wouldn't. My point is that right now and over the past year, Florida and Texas were good places to live given what people in most places in the Western world were subjected to. So my question is: What's the prognosis for places like Florida and Texas?

A: Suppression will be attempted...

Q: (L) Alright, I think we've covered what we had to cover, right?

(Joe) "Suppression will be attempted..."

(Andromeda) But not necessarily successful.

(Joe) Revolution?

A: Exactly. Remember the Alamo!!

Q: (Joe) I hope so. I wanna see SOMEBODY do something. If it's gonna happen anywhere, it's gonna happen in America.

(Niall) Trump's coming back!

(Joe) 1776 will rise again!... [laughter]

My thoughts: I pretty much agree with what AXJ & WhiteMountain stated: Trump surviving the assassination attempts greatly reduced the chances of civil war, we are likely going to see civil unrest but not civil war, the US citizenry and military are remarkably united under Trump, and that things will have to get much, much worse (true food shortages) to see anything like civil war.

One curveball I see is if Trump & Co. fail to make the tough easy call of jailing the corrupt congressmen, senators, and judges that are preventing them from doing anything substantially positive. If this call is not made, at some point the people's will to support the federal government will drop to zero, some states with strong governors may truly secede, and who knows what happens from there.
 
The PTB need chaos in order to impose order as it sees profitable, and chaos is three unavailable meals away. Whatever the outcome of these events, there will be more surveillance. The PTB alternate the right foot and the left foot but in the end, the goal is to be marching somewhere. I also think that the presidential election results are not an accurate map of a complex population and how it evolves through time. Even as a snapshot, some people vote for candidate A, some people vote for candidate B, some vote against candidate A, some vote against candidate B, etc. And through time, there is disappointments, radicalization, and also apathy. A civil war is unlikely so far, but it is possible to see at some point more armed gangs and private military/police (gangs) forces becoming prevalent in some regions. The Us may become like Europe, with very centralized power, only with a more efficient (AI-driven) bureaucracy. Time will tell.
 
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