Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

Ocean

The Living Force
Inevitably, such a war would disrupt oil supplies through the Persian Gulf, not just from Iran but from other states in the region as well. Iran's Revolutionary Guards will ensure that by blockading the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf, as they've threatened to do often enough. That, in turn, will draw in the US Navy and allied forces in an attempt to keep the Strait open - possibly also China, which gets well over half its oil from the Persian Gulf.

Meanwhile, of course, oil prices in the rest of the world would skyrocket. We can expect to pay at least double what we are now for gasoline and diesel within a matter of days, and possibly much more than that. What that would do to our economy as a whole, and to most of us in terms of our household budgets, I leave to your imagination.

Unfortunately, Iran is led by doddering religious zealots who actually believe that to spark a world war would accelerate the return of the "Twelfth Imam" and lead to a climactic war against evil (such evil, naturally, to include Israel and the USA). They regard that as entirely desirable. The rest of us . . . not so much.

Peter

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Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel


The National Interest warns: "Deal or No Deal, Iran-Israel War Is Coming to the Middle East".

The Israeli prime minister recently stated: “We no longer play with the tentacles, with Iran’s proxies: we’ve created a new equation by going for the head.” By letting Tehran know that it can and will be struck, Israel is changing the rules of the game. Jerusalem is no longer content to “mow the grass”—an expression for strategically limited strikes—but is upping the ante in response to what it sees as a growing threat.
Israel has also stepped up the scale and scope of its strikes in Syria, recently hitting the Damascus airport. The IDF recently held the largest military drill in decades, dubbed “Chariots of Fire.” In its own words, the exercises “aim to both increase the IDF’s defensive readiness and examine its preparedness for an intensive and prolonged campaign.”
In late May 2022, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted drills which included “long-range flights, aerial refueling and striking distant targets.” It was, the Times of Israel noted, meant to simulate striking Iranian nuclear facilities. According to Israel’s Channel 13 news, the exercises spanned more than 10,000 kilometers and included more than 100 aircraft and navy submarines.
. . .
The IDF is, of course, an exceptionally well-trained military. It isn’t a stranger to major drills and exercises. But it seems clear that something is afoot and the parameters of the long-running conflict between Israel and Iran are changing. Coupled with Tehran’s imminent “nuclear break out,” such developments indicate that Jerusalem is doing more than mowing the grass—it might be preparing to get rid of the entire yard.
Should Israel strike Iran’s nuclear facilities it would likely bring about the worst war that the Middle East has seen in decades—if not longer. The conflict that would follow would look nothing like many of the recent wars between Israel and Iranian proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. For both Israel and the Islamic Republic, it would be an existential battle, with the fate of both the Jewish state and the regime in Tehran hinging on the war’s outcome. The losses and destruction would be devastating.

There's more at the link.
 

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All Signs Point to Imminent Israeli Attack on Iran

Israel has been preaching a credible military threat against Iran for years. What's happening now that makes it the time to act on that threat?
 
I recall the C’s saying there would be a double cross of Israel at some point but this seems so sudden and too soon for that to be triggered now. Totally subjective, of course. God and the Devil only know what madness is in the minds of the lunatics at the helm, much less those on the bridge arguing over what orders to bark.
 
Yeah, evidently Trump (presumably whilst taking in a performance of Les Mis with FLOTUS) has called for evacuation of all personnel from the airbase in Iraq in anticipation of an impending Israeli strike on Iran. Meanwhile Yemen voiced its displeasure by bombing Ben Gurion’s runways.
 
Yeah, this is all probably the usual theatrics and touting that is done for 'political posturing', to make Bibi and his minions look strong. We've seen this before (yawn). :knitting:

Right. It seems more likely that it's Trump's "genius" move to put pressure on Iran to negotiate, i.e. they make various moves to make it look like they're seriously prepping for an attack, but no attack happens. Wait and see.
 
Today, for the first time in 20 years, the IAEA declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations.This echos the main justification that the US used to invade Iraq in 2003: Iraq's alleged breach of Resolution 1441, which required Iraq to comply with chemical weapon disarmament obligations. Iraq had no chemical weapons program.

The IAEA appears to be playing the same role again, this time in relation to Iran. A few days ago, Iran published documents showing Rafael Grossi was working closely with Israel on the Iranian nuclear issue.
 
I don't think it will be an attack because we are talking nuclear and nobody wants a nuclear war. Specially Israel. I think all of this is a déjà vu. During the Cold War everybody was afraid of a nuclear war, novels, movies, series, it was a very fashion subject. The danger was from Soviet Union but also from Libia! Gaddafi was a devil, a monster. Stalin another one. Iran, later, was also the worst of the worst. No one a minute I believed all this non sens because I was in love with Russians and the Soviet Russia. Now they start again with the same scenario. While a genocide in the middle. I believe that all of this is the eternal Comedia del'arte, showing us that the comedians are macabre, crazy, nuts.
 
This may be seen as a diversionary tactic in the face of the situation in the United States, but Haaretz says it now:

Israel 'Fully Ready' to Attack Iran in Coming Days, U.S. Officials Reportedly Say

The Israeli strike is reportedly being prepared without U.S. support, while Iran is said to be planning a retaliatory barrage of hundreds of ballistic missiles targeting Israel.

Israel is "fully ready" to carry out a military strike against Iran, U.S. officials have confirmed, as Tehran prepares for a large-scale retaliatory attack that could involve hundreds of ballistic missiles targeting Israeli territory. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that an Israeli strike "could very well happen" and that it might derail efforts to reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran.

Trump said he would "love to avoid a conflict" with Iran, but added that Tehran must offer greater concessions in ongoing negotiations over its nuclear program. "It's very simple, not complicated. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," he said during a bill signing ceremony at the White House. "Iran has to give us some things they're not willing to give us right now."

Asked whether he was trying to prevent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from launching a military operation, Trump said the U.S. has had "very good discussions" with Iran and made clear he opposed an Israeli strike for now. "It would blow it. It might help it, actually. But it could also blow it," he said of the potential impact on diplomacy.

A senior Iranian official said on Thursday morning that a "friendly" country in the region has alerted Tehran about a potential Israeli attack.

According to The New York Times, senior Iranian military and government figures have already met to plan a response that could involve launching hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel.
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I don't think it will be an attack because we are talking nuclear and nobody wants a nuclear war.
Considering that there are certifiably insane people in positions of power, who knows what they might do. The C's said that they do not know for sure that Iran has nuclear weapons:

(L) Do Israel and the US know about Iran's nuclear weapons?

A: Suspect.

On the other hand the C's also said that there would be no man-made all out nuclear war:

Q: Yet, you said the United States would be bombed, and on another occasion you said there would not be a nuclear war.

A: "Bombs" are not all "nuclear." And, there are "natural bombs."

Though if I remember correctly, they said that limited use of nuclear weapons is possible? Cannot find that part in the transcripts.
 
Regarding the "limited use" of nukes:

Even though the Cs have said "no nuclear war", they have also said that there could be some suitcase nuke type incidents. Also, things can change.

Prouty gives the most compelling argument for why there will be no all-out nuclear war in his book "The Secret Team".

And there were also hints that 4D STS does not want an all out nuclear war on their "farm":

(Perceval) There's something I've been saying to various people, and I'm wondering if it's true or not. The stories in Richard Dolan's books about US nuclear missile sites being disabled by UFOs at various places so that they couldn't fire anything way back in the 60's at the height of the Cold War. Was that a message to the Powers that Be that no nuclear war would ever be allowed? Did 4D STS send a message in that way that nobody would be allowed to push the button because you'd kill everybody. Since this world is like a farm, their cattle would all be killed. Is that anywhere close to the truth?

A: Close.
 

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