Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel


Israeli media: The Israeli Knesset building was hit by an Iranian missile in Jerusalem. Government officials were seriously injured

Within the past hour, 20 Iranian missiles hit the following locations: - Haifa- Tel Aviv- Jerusalem - Beersheba- Negev

Israeli Channel 13: Concerns over the leakage of hazardous materials following the recent Iranian missile attack.
 
Israeli Channel 13: Concerns over the leakage of hazardous materials following the recent Iranian missile attack.

Possibly this:


I would very much like to know how many missiles Iran has tucked away. Nobody claims to know except Netanyahu who cited some number like 20, 000 based on production rate.

They also may have lost fewer launchers than initially thought. Some evidence for successful hits may have been decoys, and then there's this:


 
Posted this on X:

You mostly hear three arguments for striking Iran, two of which are childish propaganda, one of which is sincere.

The first is that Iran's leadership is completely insane and irrational in its hatred, and therefore would nuke Israel and even the US if it got the chance. Just like Putin was supposedly insane and irrational when he invaded Ukraine.

This is obvious nonsense: as we've seen, Iran could have struck Tel Aviv with ballistic missiles anytime it wanted, yet they didn't. They only did so in a tit-for-tat response after Israel attacked them. Wise or not, this was a rational decision. Hence the idea that they would randomly nuke countries is absurd; nukes would obviously be a deterrence against regime change, not a means to do irrational things based on hatred that would do nothing but destroy them.

Which brings us to the second argument, somewhat contradicting the first: that we need to seek regime change in Iran because the Mullahs are just so evil, suppressing women, saying mean things about America etc. This is of course silly moralistic drivel: as if any country has ever gone to war with another country because they thought its leadership does bad things to their people, or because they didn't like their rhetoric. At best, from a moralistic perspective (and conceding that Iran's leadership is in fact evil to its own people) you could make the case that getting rid of the Mullahs would have a positive "moral" side effect.

This leaves us with the third argument: supporting Israel as a willing proxy to effect regime change would secure American hegemony in the ME, while containing China's and Russia's growth and ambition in the region and solidifying the petro dollar system.

I wish we could cut all the crap about nukes and women's rights and "irrational evilmen", if only because it is so painful to watch how supposedly grown-up people actually take it seriously.

Just state your case why you think plunging Iran into chaos and/or install a pro-Western regime would be useful to deter China and Russia. Then at least people can talk about it seriously instead of having to argue about childish nonsense.
 
Follow up to my post earlier, I read this from Middle East Spectator (a Telegram channel based in Iran which have found to be reliable and honest).

It seems that due to Israel's continuous airstrikes on Iran's missile base entrances in the West of the country, which contain the vast majority of high-precision missiles with shorter range, Iran is forced to use longer range but older and less accurate missiles from its Eastern missile bases.

This explains why we are seeing the extensive use of Qadr-F with exo-atmospheric submunition release (i.e. cluster warhead) or two-stage Sejjil missiles. These missiles have longer ranges and much bigger warheads, but have an CEP of around 30-40 meters, compared to Iran's modern missiles which are up to 5 meters CEP accurate.

The strike in Haifa today, which was probably carried out with Sejjil missile, was likely intended for the Ministry of Interior building, but instead slightly missed, and landed about 30 meters further away on an abandoned building and parking lot.

Strikes carried our with Iran's Kheybar Shekan-1 or Kheybar Shekan-2, and the Hajj Qassem as well as the Fattah-1, are usually much more accurate, in fact accurate enough to reliably target air defenses and other high value targets (which we saw recently).

@Middle_East_Spectator

Indeed we have seen several videos now of near (and some not so near) misses in the vicinity of obvious high value targets. The main issue for Iran is less likely the size of their stockpiles but more their capacity to actually stage and launch them without serious retaliation from Israeli strikes.

Iran has the advantage of being such a huge country. Israel has air superiority some parts of the West, like the regions bordering Iraq, for obvious reasons. Their claim to have control over the skies of the whole country is nonsense, as it is vast.

Anyway, it's near impossible to know how long Iran can keep up an effective rate of fire, and whether the reduction in the number of launches is intentional or forced upon them. Not to mention further damage that could happen at any time. They can hopefully continue to produce the more advanced missiles or receive equivalents from Russia and China. If some of those high value targets had been destroyed then it might have had some deterrent effect by now, but who knows? Doesn't seem like Israeli rationality is worth betting on at this point.
 
It seems most of us here have noticed a change in Trump attitude and we are a little baffled. Jeffery Sachs has provided some insight on why Trump has gone off script in terms of his MAGA philosophy.

Jeffrey Sachs says Mossad is in charge—Israel’s premier assassination unit has effectively dictated U.S. foreign policy for decades, and Trump is just the latest to fall in line.
The deep state—CIA, Mossad, MI6—calls the shots, not presidents. Ukraine’s strike on Russian bombers and Israel’s attack on Tehran? Same tactics, same authors, same drones. Mossad was behind both. And the CIA? Of course it knew—it’s neck-deep in it.

Putin agrees. Boom:

 
Just my thoughts. I think that the US will attack Iran with all the military might they have. You don't move billions of dollars worth of equipment just to do nothing. Two weeks is probably for american people to accommodate to the idea, and to calm down Iran, Russia and China. Russia and China can be diplomatic and vocal all they want, but if they don't show the will to stop Israel physically "on the terrain" its worthless.

Its not about rules, laws, who is right or who is wrong, or even who have nuclear weapons, its about who is more bloodthirsty and psychopathic. And that's Israel. They will never be calmed by diplomacy and will never give up and de-escalate (did they de-escalate killing in Gaza or in any other point in their history?)

IMO Trump gave Iran a small window to hit Israel so hard that Israel can't recover from it. And its not happening. After that Iran will be destroyed. Forget Russia, China, diplomacy and common sense.
 
A tense exchange between Israel's Minister of Internal Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, and chief of Mossad David Barnea about the capability of Iranian missiles.
If this is true, it is a real sign of significant miscalculation by Israel.

I think regardless of what’s been said by whoever in the news, the underlying reality is that this is a fight to keep the petrodollar on top therefore USA will have to enter the war in a greater capacity. And at that point, Iran needs to seek help from Russia and China officially and the latter two need to come out full circle and be prepared to throw their military might directly at USA if need arises.

If not then the Asian powers need to kiss the whole BRICS initiave good bye.
I think that the chances of a US-Iran war leading to the preservation of the petrodollar or weakening of the BRICS are rather slim. An accelerated decline of US power and the dollar are much more likely. The US is unlikely to gain control of Iranian oil, since there is no-one who is capable and willing to invade Iran.

If Trump were to publicize info showing Israeli involvement in 9/11, it's likely that Israel would release info showing that sectors of the American gov't were also deeply involved in 9/11. So I doubt it will happen.
Publishing Israeli involvement in 9/11 is probably the nuclear option, even more so than Epstein being an Israeli agent. Those who are implicated within the US are pretty much Trump's enemies, even though some of them chose to "work together" with Trump like Lindsey Graham.

The main problem for Trump seems to be that he thinks that he needs the Zionists as "allies", as well as the corrupt RINOs in Congress (who are likely kept in check with Mossad blackmail).
 
IMO Trump gave Iran a small window to hit Israel so hard that Israel can't recover from it. And its not happening. After that Iran will be destroyed.
You are forgetting that after 2-4 weeks at the most Israel will have no air defence rockets left either, even with US help. And Iran most likely still has more than enough rockets at that point. Could a US attack disable most of the Iranian launchers? Maybe, maybe not. Could China or Russia or Pakistan supply more launchers? Also possible, if they are compatible with Iranian rockets.
 
No deal in Geneva for the moment

CNN quotes an Iranian source: "We have not agreed to halt uranium enrichment, and this is a clear red line for us."

Israel Hayom newspaper, quoting a US diplomatic source: "No progress with the Iranians in the Geneva talks."

Iranian Foreign Minister: "We have clearly informed the European side that our missile capabilities are non-negotiable."

Iranian Foreign Minister: "We will not negotiate with either side while Israel's attacks continue."
 
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