Yes, the US Department of Defense (formerly the Department of War until 1949) and the Pentagon have conducted
multiple wargame exercises over the years that simulated scenarios involving potential Iranian retaliation against US military assets, including bases and naval forces in the Persian Gulf region, following US or Israeli strikes on Iran. These exercises often highlighted the risks of escalation, US vulnerabilities, and the potential for significant casualties. Below is a summary of key documented examples based on publicly reported simulations.
Internal Look (2012)
This classified two-week wargame, conducted by US Central Command, assessed the repercussions of an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The scenario assumed the strike would delay Iran's nuclear program by about a year. In response, Iran launched missiles at a US Navy warship in the Persian Gulf, killing approximately 200 Americans. This drew the US into the conflict, leading to American retaliatory strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, which further delayed the program by up to two more years.
The exercise concluded that such an event could spark a broader regional war with dire consequences for US forces in the area, including potential attacks on Gulf-based assets. [nytimes.com]
Millennium Challenge 2002
One of the largest US military wargames, costing $250 million and involving 13,500 participants, pitted US forces (Blue Team) against an Iran-like adversary (Red Team) in a Persian Gulf setting. The scenario simulated a preemptive US invasion following a surrender ultimatum to the fictional regime. The Red commander, using asymmetric tactics inspired by Iranian capabilities—such as low-tech communications (e.g., mosque calls to prayer for signaling), land-based missiles, low-flying aircraft, and suicide speedboats—launched a surprise attack on the US fleet once it entered the Gulf.
This resulted in the virtual sinking of 16 US warships, including an aircraft carrier, in under 10 minutes, effectively "defeating" the US force early on. The exercise was reset to continue, but it exposed weaknesses in US naval defenses against swarming tactics in confined waters like the Gulf. [nationalinterest.org]
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) Wargame (2023-2024)
This simulation, involving US officials, military personnel, and analysts, explored a 2027 conflict triggered by Israeli intelligence on Iran mating nuclear warheads to missiles. Israel, with limited US support (e.g., hypersonic missiles but no direct involvement), struck Iranian nuclear and missile sites. Iran retaliated through proxies (Hezbollah and Houthis) with massive conventional missile barrages on Israel, followed by direct Iranian strikes on Israeli nuclear and government targets. Escalation led to Israel using nuclear weapons on Iranian military sites, prompting Iran to launch a nuclear counterstrike on an Israeli air base hosting US military personnel—effectively drawing the US into a nuclear exchange in the region. [thebulletin.org]
Other Notable Simulations
- Global 92 (1992): A Naval War College exercise where Iran issued an ultimatum to close the Gulf, then launched cruise missiles at US allies and conducted a simulated nuclear terrorist attack on a Saudi port to disrupt US deployments. US responses included airstrikes on Iranian targets, but the game emphasized Iran's potential use of weapons of mass destruction and asymmetric threats against Gulf-based forces. [merip.org]
- Various other exercises, such as those referenced in analyses of US-UK joint simulations, have modeled Iranian drone and missile swarms overwhelming air defenses at Gulf bases like those in Bahrain, highlighting the depletion of US interceptors in prolonged engagements. [bbc.com +1]
These wargames, often classified, are designed to test command structures, communications, and strategic responses rather than predict exact outcomes.
They consistently underscore the challenges of containing escalation in the Persian Gulf, where US bases (e.g., in Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE) and naval assets are within range of Iranian missiles and drones.