2024YR4 asteroid and Question for the Cs

[Ina]

This asteroid, recently discovered, is presenting at the moment in a wait and see fashion as all agencies are observing it. The reason for that is none other than a possible Earth collision (2.2% probability, zone 3). Below, is the information from ESA.
ESA actively monitoring near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4
So far nothing is clear as information collected presents more than a singular definitive trajectory. 2024YR4 has 3 more years to pass Earth, slingshot around the Sun and return in 2028 in visible motion on a trajectory, which currently intersects Earth in Dec 2032.
As expected there are already speculations that it will not impact Earth but it might impact the Moon which could be equally bad.

In the light of all that, I am forwarding a multiple choice question for the Cs.
Is the 2024YR4 near Earth asteroid going to impact
a. Earth
b. Moon
c. Neither.

If anything this multiple choice is going to be funny for the Cs I hope.

 

[Alejo]

If anything this multiple choice is going to be funny for the Cs I hope.

But then there's an assumption in the question, that is, that it will impact anything. NASA says no, or that there's a very low probability, so perhaps that may be a better question to begin the query.

Are the estimations that NASA are providing about this asteroid 2024YR4 accurate? if not, how likely is it that it can impact, Earth/The Moon.

 

[Ina]

But then there's an assumption in the question, that is, that it will impact anything. NASA says no, or that there's a very low probability, so perhaps that may be a better question to begin the query.

Are the estimations that NASA are providing about this asteroid 2024YR4 accurate? if not, how likely is it that it can impact, Earth/The Moon.

The accuracy in estimates, and how likely, will only be possible to be achieved with measurements taken from 2028 onwards. 2028, is the time when missions will start to be planned for the asteroid destruction.
So far the computer derived trajectory is putting the Earth, the Moon and 2024YR4 in such level of proximity that could be called as critical scenario. The options I listed address qualitatively both ends of the current spectrum of possibilities.
If NASA says there is nothing to see here, why is ESA monitoring it?

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

Spaceweather.com published an update (NASA's computed new results Feb 09 2025) :

ASTEROID 2024 YR4 UPDATE: It's not scary yet, but it's heading in that direction. Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.2% chance of hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, almost double the odds from a month and a half ago when it was first discovered. Current probabilities are based on 343 observations spanning 45 days, a growing number which is improving our knowledge of the asteroid's orbit.​

Click to view and play with an interactive orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4​

Even if the odds eventually grow to 100%, 2024 YR4 won't wipe us out. This asteroid is no dino-killer. With an estimated diameter of 40 to 70 meters, it is only a few times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteor that hit Russia in 2013. That space rock exploded in the atmosphere, creating shock waves that shattered glass windows and injured hundreds of people (mainly from broken glass). An impact from 2024 YR4 might be more like the Tunguska event, which leveled a forest in Russia in 1908. You wouldn't want to be at ground zero, but Earth will survive.​

The recent uptick in impact probability could be temporary. Astronomers are carefully tracking 2024 YR4 with multiple observations every night. More data will tighten the error bars and alter the odds. Up or down? Stay tuned for updates.​

From session-10-august-2001 :

Q: So I guess that kind of means no. Are we doing to get hit by a comet or an asteroid? (A) When? (L) When what? When are we going to get hit by a comet or an asteroid? (L to A) They won't tell us that! (A) Why not?

A: Soon!

From session-20-august-2001 :

Q: (T) That's because he's a "hot popper!" (L) Oh, we have a new asteroid, PM-9. Is PM-9 going to hist us on May 10, 2003? (A) Maybe.

A: Very possible.

Q: Is that our "Kaboom, splat?"

A: Maybe.

Q: If it hits in the Pacific, Rainier will be a caldera, tsunamis would roll into Puget Sound, and goodbye to Hawaii!

A: Yes.

Q: (A) If it will hit, we will have nuclear radiation.

A: Yes.

Q: (T) Before, they gave probabilities, like 1 in how many. (L) What is the probability?

A: High.

And a last one from session-4-march-2012 :

Q: (L) Okay. Anything about this new asteroid - what's it called? (Perceval) 2012... (L) DA-14? (Perceval) Something like that. (L) So, what are the odds of it hitting earth? (Perceval) On February 15th next year? (L) Well, let me ask that question differently. I don't want to know what the odds are. That's a stupid question. I want to know if it's very likely, just in simple English terminology because let's forget all this statistics crap because I'm sick of reading that book. (laughter) (L) I mean, is it very likely to hit the planet?

A: No. But there are other things out there that most likely will!

Q: (L) Okay. So, what's the point of publishing these articles that they're putting out about an asteroid that's likely to hit the earth on February of next year?

A: You have assessed this aspect of the control system pretty well in the past.

Q: (L) Well, what did we say about it? We said that when they do that, they're trying to drive people “end-of-the-world” crazy so they can impose more controls on them. Is that it?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) And that's what the whole 2012, end-of-the-world schtick is all about? It's trying to get people to act like it’s the end of the world so that the authorities can say, "Ya'll are crazy! You need to be protected from yourselves! We're gonna do it, so we're gonna lock all the people up!" and that sort of thing?

A: Yes.