Adios El Niño, Hello La Niña?


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Adios El Niño, Hello La Niña?

ScienceDaily (June 25, 2010) — The latest image of Pacific Ocean sea surface heights from the NASA/European Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite, dated June 11, 2010, shows that the tropical Pacific has switched from warm (red) to cold (blue) during the last few months.
Hello El Nino again?El Nino effect, which can lead to droughts and floods, is underway in the tropical Pacific, the researchers say.
casper said:
Hello El Nino again?El Nino effect, which can lead to droughts and floods, is underway in the tropical Pacific, the researchers say.

Yeap!, it seems its here, there is an advisory at, it talks about northern hemisphere _

_ said:
Big changes afoot in the Pacific: El Niño has already arrived, and is rapidly intensifying

The meteorological community is currently abuzz with discussion of what now appears to be a rapidly intensifying El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. For the past 12-14 months, the North Pacific Basin has been quite warm overall, with warmth primarily being concentrated near the equator in the West Pacific and in the extratropics in the East Pacific (including along the West Coast of North America). There was much excited discussion last winter and early spring, as well, because many of the dynamical ocean-atmosphere models run by various international scientific institutions were suggesting the potential for strong El Niño conditions to develop by Winter 2014-2015.

A canonical East Pacific El Niño signature has rapidly emerged in recent weeks. (Levi Cowan via
Well, as most of us are aware by now, that didn’t happen, and the projections from winter/spring 2014 represent a considerable forecast failure on the part of the models typically used to make long-lead ENSO forecasts. Instead, the world bore witness to an El Niño event that barely reached the threshold for a marginal event–and, for the most part, didn’t exhibit the kind of ocean-atmosphere “coupling” we might typically expect. Persistent weakening of the easterly trade winds simply didn’t happen, and the incipient event just couldn’t sustain itself through the winter.

Now, a year later, we’re facing a situation that (at least superficially) resembles last year’s: it’s May, and there are compelling signs that a significant El Niño event is in the works. Like last year, a powerful oceanic Kelvin wave has propagated across the entire Pacific Basin, bringing very warm water and air temperatures to the coast of South America. Powerful typhoons in the tropical West Pacific are driving pulses of westerly winds near the equator, disrupting surface ocean currents and allowing warm ocean water to take the place of the typical Cold Tongue. Further, the dynamical models are once again suggesting the potential for a powerful El Niño event later in the summer and into the autumn/winter months.

There was an advisory yesterday about swells (massive waves) in Mexican Pacific coast, again, just a week later. _ (Spanish) . But an Mexican meteorologist says is not related to El Niño _ (spanish).

I think, that perhaps, from the lack off -continuity? ... information we get from weather resources/media, are signs from the global warming preceding the ice age. El Niño, being a some sort of space goat, since they are not relating weather phenomena to ice age, and/or other causes/effects that are affecting the planet, that are not from anthropocentric cause.
I'm not sure whether this link is in the right place here, if moderators find that it is not, it can move freely.
Apart from writing about global warming Europe in the 20th century, wrote:
"Europe has warmed more than the world average, and this trend will continue. The temperature of the land on Earth in April was 1.11 ° C higher than the average for the 20th century." Writes about the rising prices of certain foods: rice, coffee, sugar and cocoa.
Reasons cited include the notorious El Nino in the Pacific.
This year it might be the other way around, Adios La Niña, Hello El Niño !
From World meteorological organizatioin, 03 May 2023 :


WMO Update: Prepare for El Niño​

Geneva, 3 May 2023 (WMO) - The likelihood of El Niño developing later this year is increasing, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This would have the opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the to world to the long-running La Niña and would likely fuel higher global temperatures.

The unusually stubborn La Niña has now ended after a three-year run and the tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

There is a 60% chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023, and this will increase to about 70% in June-August and 80% between July and September
, according to the Update, which is based on input from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and expert assessment.

At this stage there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño.

“We just had the eight warmest years on record, even though we had a cooling La Niña for the past three years and this acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase. The development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the warmest year on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases. The effect on global temperatures usually plays out in the year after its development and so will likely be most apparent in 2024.

“The world should prepare for the development of El Niño, which is often associated with increased heat, drought or rainfall in different parts of the world. It might bring respite from the drought in the Horn of Africa and other La Niña- related impacts but could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events. This highlights the need for the UN Early Warnings for All initiative to keep people safe,” said Prof. Taalas.

No two El Niño events are the same and the effects depend partly on the time of year. WMO and National Meteorological Hydrological Services will therefore be closely monitoring developments.

Typical Impacts

Map from IRI Data Library Maprooms

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes usually last nine to 12 months.

El Niño events are typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.

In contrast, El Niño can also cause severe droughts over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.

During the Boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin.

Global Seasonal Climate Update

El Niño and La Niña are major – but not the only - drivers of the Earth’s climate system.

In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, WMO now also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

“As warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are generally predicted over oceanic regions, they contribute to widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas. Without exception, positive temperature anomalies are expected over all land areas in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere,” says the latest update.

The WMO ENSO and Global Seasonal Climate Updates are based on forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and are available to support governments, the United Nations, decision-makers and stakeholders in climate sensitive sectors to mobilize preparations and protect lives and livelihoods.

Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the season May-July 2023

Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the season May-July 2023. The tercile category with the highest forecast probability is indicated by shaded areas. The most likely category for below-normal, above-normal and near-normal is depicted in blue, red and grey shadings respectively for temperature, and orange, green and grey shadings respectively for precipitation. White areas indicate equal chances for all categories in both cases. The baseline period is 1993–2009.

Recent developments

From February 2023 onwards, there has been a significant increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, with notably stronger warming along the coast of South America.

As of mid-April 2023, the sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. In the atmosphere, convective activity over the equatorial Pacific near the date line is near normal.

It is worth noting, however, that the Northern Hemisphere 'spring predictability barrier' a period characterized by somewhat lower predictive skill, has not yet passed. Nevertheless, these recent developments in oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific, along with current predictions and expert assessments, are indicating a strong likelihood of El Niño onset in the early second half of 2023, and its continuation during the remainder of the six-month forecast period.

Notes for Editors

The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, and is based on contributions from experts worldwide, inter alia, of the following institutions: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño (CIIFEN), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America (USA), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Météo-France, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Met Office of the United Kingdom, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), WMO Global Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF) including the Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME)."
Naturally they are presenting the whole thing in terms of global warming blah blah blah.

Well, I guess we will wait and see if there is an El Nino this year. Please keep an eye on this as I'd like to follow it when it develops.
Naturally they are presenting the whole thing in terms of global warming blah blah blah.

Well, I guess we will wait and see if there is an El Nino this year. Please keep an eye on this as I'd like to follow it when it develops.
That was my thought as well, I heard it reported back in April that by the end of the summer in the Northern hemisphere, El Niño was expected, and so everyone obviously ran to report that "See?! global warming!!!" but ignored La Niña which is cooling.

It made me think that, considering how it has all been going this year, and with El Niño being in the Pacific Ocean, and the ring of fire having its epicenter there as well, with geological events growing stronger and stronger, I wouldn't be surprised if it did become a reality, but accompanied by stronger geological events, volcanos earthquakes and the like.

In other words, continuing the trend we've gotten so used to by now.
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