Perceval said:
Bobo08 said:
A leaked radar screenshot from air traffic controller AirNav Indonesia shows the plane climbing through 36,300 feet without permission and critically lost 200 kilometres per hour, which meant it could no longer keep flying at that altitude.
Which suggests the engines lost power prior to the "downdraft". Not discounting "freak weather", but it's possible we're looking at an initial EMP that fried all electrics and power, and then the shock wave that propelled it downwards.
That's quite a leap. Perhaps we can conduct some analysis to understand this tragic incident in context without having to assume EMP (or hyperdimensional) effects.
Let's review the radar information that's been leaked so far. Initially the plane was climbing at 6,000 to 9,000fpm (about 70-100mph) through 36,300ft at a forward speed of 353kph (about 220mph) without permission. The extreme rate of climb suggests that it was caught in a very strong updraft.
The ground speed of 220mph was alarmingly slow, as the plane should have been traveling much faster at that altitude in order to sustain lift. What could explain this? We can imagine the scenario.
The plane reportedly was flying at 34,000ft, and the crew had asked air traffic control for clearance to climb. Since it was approaching a thunderstorm, the crew might have throttled the engines down, waiting for clearance to climb. Perhaps the crew slowed the plane to about 350mph or thereabouts.
Then the plane encounters a strong updraft. The pilot reacts to the sudden climb by pushing the plane's nose down, trying to maintain its assigned altitude, but crucially doesn't put on more power. Thus, a large part of the plane's thrust is spent fighting the updraft, and its forward speed falls off.
The plane climbs 2,300ft within about 15-25 seconds (the estimated 6,000 to 9,000fpm rate of climb) and its ground speed drops to about 220mph. This is too slow to maintain control at higher altitude.
At that point the plane is nose down, flying too slow and on the ragged edge of control, but still being carried higher in a strong updraft. Then the plane flies out of the updraft and into a strong downdraft.
Perhaps, in the momentary transition between the updraft on the tail and the downdraft on the nose, the plane flips straight downward. We can assume that the pilot immediately pulls back hard on the stick trying to recover control, but at that point, the plane is doomed.
Immediately, the reversed airflow of the downdraft over the wings causes the pilot's action to have the opposite of the intended effect. Instead of leveling the plane, it kills the plane's forward airspeed and merely reinforces its downward attitude.
As the plane dives downwards, perhaps the pilot put on emergency power in a desperate attempt to regain control. That would explain the reported 11,000-24,000fpm (270mph) descent into the ocean.
No meteor strike, EMP, or hyperdimensional extra/ultra-terrestrial intervention required. Just weather.
