Asteroid 2009 FH - miss distance 0.2 LD

traveler

A Disturbance in the Force
spaceweather.com - March 17, 2009

ASTEROID FLYBY TONIGHT: Newly-discovered asteroid 2009 FH is flying past Earth tonight only 85,000 km away. That's about twice the altitude of a geosynchronous communications satellite. Advanced amateur astronomers in North America can photograph the 20-meter-wide space rock racing through the constellation Gemini after sunset on March 17th. It should be about as bright as a 14th magnitude star.

It was the second so close flyby this year. Previous flyby of 0.2 LD was reported at March 1st and is inserted here http://www.cassiopaea.org/forum/index.php?topic=11837.msg84550
It seems '2009 is going to be a "smashing" year' :shock:
 
That IS weird! Something is going on "out there." Which reminds me of this:

Cs 4 Dec 99 said:
Q: Okay, that leads into the next question about the excessive contrail activity.

(F) I read the articles about the contrails. There did not seem to be any way of verifying anything that was said. Essentially, you were left with the claims of this or that person, few of whom were trained observers, or who were taking all the factors into consideration.

(L) Well, we noticed them a lot in the spring of 1998 when we had all the floods and fires later. They are THERE!

(F) Yes, but the claims are that contrails were appearing in clear skies, at which point the sky became overcast as a result of these contrails, when the two may not have been related at all. Then, people were noticing cob webs or "angel hair" type stuff falling on the ground.

(L) I agree that a lot of it is unverifiable and I haven't seen any hard proof myself, either; but they ARE there! LOTS of these jets flying about. An exceedingly LOT of flying! And, not only that, other things have been reported and photographed; strange streaks and lines in the sky, dark and light both - as though some sort of cosmic structure is bleeding through!

(F) Yes, but you have to wonder about these people. I mean, the stuff about the radar anomalies was clearly an example of ignorance of both radar and weather. Oh, yes, big spheres appear on the radar, but those have been appearing forever! They are nothing but cumulonimbus blow-ups - what is called a meso-cyclone, and is very common. The only reason they are getting excited about it is because there is all this communication, all these satellite and radar link-ups, and now the average person gets to see what weathermen have been seeing all along! More coverage and communication just makes it seem like it is something new. People need knowledge about this! Sure, there is stuff going on out there, but people seem to be seeing boogey men behind absolutely everything that happens! And this is because they have no knowledge about these things. Why are these people going off the deep end about these half-baked ideas without bothering to get expert opinions, or even a number of opinions? Why do they promulgate all this nonsense to everybody else as though THEY are experts, with nothing to balance the observations in the way of competent analysis? Meso-cyclones, eruptions of cumulonimbus super cells are, by their very nature, perfectly circular because of the cyclonic up-draft!

(L) But, the fact still remains, in my opinion, that there are a LOT, LOT, LOT of planes flying above us in the past few years! Whether they are dumping anything on our heads, or what, there are an extreme number of planes flying in these upper level criss-cross patterns. Now, whether they are just playing war-games, or they are spy planes, they are doing SOMETHING! What is the reason for all of this upper level flying that results in these criss-crossed contrails that everybody is seeing?

A: A lot of it is "training maneuver"oriented.

Q: Why are they training so many pilots? What are they preparing for?

A: Military budgets must be justified, you know. Review "Military-Industrial Complex 101."

Q: So, this is just training flight, justification of budget, and nothing more than that?

A: Well, we would not say "not anything more to it than that," but, when you say "M-IC," you have said a lot!

Q: Are you implying that there is a build-up of the Military-Industrial Complex for a reason?

A: To preserve status quo during "peacetime." This peace business is not very profitable, you know.

Q: Does that suggest that they are building up to set off a war so they can make more money?

A: Maybe if indeed, and if the populace can be hoodwinked. But, fortunately, the public is less hoodwinkable. Maybe the real enemy is "out there, " rather than "over there." Was it not always?

This little exchange always struck me as fascinating for a number of reasons. Notice that it took place in 1999, before the Bush theft of the White House and before 9-11. Yet, it seems to predict 9-11 indirectly - but not TOO indirectly. They certainly gave clues about the real enemy NOT being "over there" as in Iraq, Iran, etc, but OUT there. Of course, the way we took it at the time was that some sort of military action would be initiated as a cover for action against aliens or something, but time and experience have suggested other interpretations. I also continue to think back to their remark that 4 D "battles" are experienced by us as "weather" and now wonder if the concept of "space invasion" (considering the nature of 4 D) could very well be an invasion of asteroids and/or cometary fragments.

After all, if there are psychopaths on the planet running things as puppets controlled by their 4 D masters, and we know that 4 D denizens can't maintain a 3 D "body" for very long, there's really no reason to think that a "space invasion" will necessarily be a flotilla of UFOs landing and aliens climbing out and rounding up the masses, now is there?
 
Wow, the chart of earth/asteroid encounters on the spaceweather site was quite an eye opener for me. The first question that came to mind was: how big would an asteroid have to be to do significant damage on impact and I'm still researching that one - although I was looking at a house today and it looked about 6 meters wide. Being hit by a house has got to hurt.

The second question was: How often does this sort of thing happen? I looked back into the archives on that site for previous months (going two years back) and invented a "Concern Index" which is based on the premise that the bigger the object is and the smaller it's "Miss Distance", the more of a cause for concern it would be.

So CI = Object Size m / Miss Distance LD

Arguably I should cube the object size since the damage caused would be proportional to it's volume rather than it's length, but then I should also probably cube the miss distance since we're looking at an intersection in 3D. Concern Index 2 is Size^3/Miss^3 but it doesn't radically alter the results.

Using this ready-reckoner, the near miss of 2 March ( 35m / 0.2 LD) = Concern Index of 175
And today's near miss ( 21m / 0.2 LD) = Concern Index of 105.

Ranking all the near misses on the spaceweather website for the last two years shows this top 10:

Asteroid
Year
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Mag.​
Size
CI
CI2
2007 TU24​
2008​
Jan. 29​
1.4​
10​
400​
286​
23323615​
2006 VV2​
2007​
Mar. 31​
8.8​
9​
2000​
227​
11739294​
4179 Toutatis​
2008​
Nov. 9​
20​
14​
3800​
190​
6859000​
2009 DD45​
2009​
Mar. 2​
0.2​
11​
35​
175
5359375​
2008 BT18​
2008​
July 14​
5.9​
13​
1000​
169​
4869047​
1998 CS1​
2009​
Jan. 17​
11​
12​
1300​
118​
1650639​
2005 WJ56​
2008​
Jan. 10​
10.9​
11​
1200​
110​
1334333​
3200 Phaethon​
2007​
Dec. 10​
47​
14​
5000​
106​
1203972​
2009 FH​
2009​
Mar. 18​
0.2​
14​
21​
105
1157625​
4450 Pan​
2008​
Feb. 19​
15.9​
13​
1600​
101​
1018987​

Hmm, two in one month in the top 10 for the past two years? Mind you, Jan 2008 looks equally anomolous.

Only 1 impact was recorded in two years: 7 Oct 2008 size 3m. Interesting in passing (although probably irrelevent) that that's one week before Blossom Goodchild's UFO landing prediction.

In terms of 'how many are that close' (and here we're getting into lies, damned lies and statistics), of 144 near misses recorded on that particular website, 16 (11.1%) were equal to or within the distance to the moon (ie <= 1 LD).
 
The Spoon said:
The second question was: How often does this sort of thing happen? I looked back into the archives on that site for previous months (going two years back) and invented a "Concern Index" which is based on the premise that the bigger the object is and the smaller it's "Miss Distance", the more of a cause for concern it would be.

So CI = Object Size m / Miss Distance LD

Ahh, apparently I needn't have bothered inventing anything. There's already a scale that combines probability with mass called the Torino Scale (previously called "A Near-Earth Object Hazard Index")

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_Scale
The Torino Scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets. It is intended as a tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions, by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value.

The Torino Scale uses a scale from 0 to 10. A 0 indicates an object has a negligibly small chance of collision with the Earth, compared with the usual "background noise" of collision events, or is too small to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere intact. A 10 indicates that a collision is certain, and the impacting object is large enough to precipitate a global disaster. Only integer values are used.

An object is assigned a 0 to 10 value based on its collision probability and the kinetic energy (expressed in megatons of TNT) of the possible collision.

I came across that while reading about the Apophis asteroid which is due to pass fairly close to the earth on 13 April 2029 and yes, that's a Friday.
 
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