Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

Cosmos said:
The idea that Israel is or must be “the unsinkable aircraft carrier of the empire in the middle east“, geopolitically speaking, might not be the case anymore nowadays. So Israel might have become expendable or at least parts of it. The world has changed since that statement was apparently a big reason for why Israel is so important.
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Also, if you can't control the Israeli leadership it poses some serious problems for maintaining its stated purpose to the Empire.
 
A very worthy resume and a timely reminder of the spiritual crux and of the root of the human problem that 0ur planet is facing.
Long in coming with its ancient pedigree.
It will grow to unbelievable proportions for hate is against all stability and Amerika no longer determines the outcome for mending anything . It is an Empire .
The way of the wicked shall perish.
Abraham's seed are they who are redeemed by Faith , who eat Grace . All who truly are in Christ and are shrouded with his sacred veil. Call it the true Israel if you please but not that sin ruling in the Middle East.
Armies from both sides are recruiting big way. Nightmares will reveal the sadists smirks and their nuclear follies .
War will not recoup America"s lost position of disparity and falsity will be beheaded where it stands.
 
More dissecting of the situation:

Some Thoughts on The Israel-Iran Conflict
1) Iran has held back on their 35 or so SU-35s. Might be waiting to use them at just the right time. Maybe, to take down those B2 bombers and their Bunker Busters.

2) The Iran-Iraq war lasted 8 years and took a million lives so there is a low probability of a quick knock out blow working. Only 16% of the American public support the war. Suppose Iran shuts down the Straits of Hormuz, doubling the price of gas at the pump? How long can the US last?

3) China has sent 2 Intelligence ships to the Persian Gulf. China is supplying Iran with planeloads of weapons. China just recently announced a 6G device that can scramble an F-35’s radar.

4) China has been busy diplomatically in the region. They did ask Oman to deny air apace to American missiles and jets. Maybe hinting how vulnerable they would be to Iran’s missiles. This could push the US Navy more directly south of the Persian Gulf rather than off to the west.

5) Russia gave Iran the Mach 9 Zircon cruise missile which has a range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles.) Iran has 25 submarines and some North Korean mini-subs. They could launch Zircon cruise missiles at the US Navy parked even more than 1,000 kilometers distant from Iran.

6) If the B2 Bunker Buster stunt fails, the price of gas doubles at the pump and investors overseas conclude Trump is a losing bet, then the economy and the public could force an end to an unpopular war.

7) Sharmine Narwani of The Cradle said on X that Iran’s bottom line is that Netanyahu must go.

8) Israel only has enough air defenses to last a week, but Iran can keep this up for a month or more. Iran has been deliberately inflicting only low levels of pain on Israel. They could easily take out Israel’s second oil refinery and gradually shift to taking out Israel’s electrical generation capacity. So, in a month Israelis could be riding bicycles in the dark. This slow approach could force both US and Israeli politicians to push Netanyahu out the door. Israel has been forced to take Jets and helicopters away from their operations in Gaza to defend Israel from incoming missiles and drones. This is in addition to their jets making bombing runs on Iran. Two major units had to be pulled from Gaza to work pulling Israelis out of the rubble in major cities. This has allowed Hamas to step up their operations on the remaining IDF forces. The IDF does not like this continued occupation duty as it is hazardous both physically and mentally.

I hope this conflict does end sooner rather than later.
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As much as one wants to root for the many saying no war because there's no evidence Iran has nukes, we know that's not true. Surely that truth is going to have to come out some way, some how - and then what?
 

Damage to the Israeli oil refining industry after Iranian attacks​

S&P Global Commodity Insights has made a grim forecast for Israel: following Iranian missile attacks on its oil refining industry, the country could face a fuel crisis:
"Oil price risk premiums could rise sharply if Iran conducts broader retaliatory attacks (e.g., to targets other than in Israel)," oil analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights said in a note. "Escalation of tensions could also boost freight rates and tanker insurance premiums, narrow the Brent-Dubai spread and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia. If Iranian crude exports are disrupted, Chinese refiners, the sole buyers of Iranian barrels, would need to seek alternative grades from other Middle Eastern countries and Russian crudes."

(...)Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia could see significant increases if Qatar's LNG exports are disrupted, which is particularly concerning for Europe as it continues to reduce dependence on Russian pipeline gas.
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The attack on the Bazan refinery in Haifa and the Ashdod refinery, under maintenance, will force the Israeli authorities to resort to importing oil products. This will increase the burden on the port infrastructure in the context of the conflict with Iran.
These publications once again confirm the fact: retaliatory attacks by Iranian troops with ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones against Israeli territory are quite damaging to the country, especially to its economy.

Here is a summary:

+ Until the Haifa refinery is up and running again (it will be operational in a few weeks, according to Energy Minister Eli Cohen), Israel will have to increase gasoline imports from 10,000 to 50,000 barrels per day and diesel imports to 60,000 barrels per day.

+ It would be necessary to import up to 10,000 barrels per day, and such volumes could overwhelm the infrastructure of the national ports and pipelines.

+ The Ashdod refinery, with a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day, is scheduled to resume operations in two weeks.

+ Damage to pipelines has blocked gas supplies and, as a result, gas production in the Karish and Leviathan fields, which will also increase demand for diesel fuel.

+ Israeli fuel reserves alone are not sufficient and purchases from other countries require logistics to cope with a four to five-fold increase in supply volumes. In addition, it is to be expected that the IRGC will again attack oil refineries and also attack port infrastructure.

+ Oil prices surged sharply following the strikes, reflecting increased geopolitical risk and supply disruption fears.


+ Iran has warned of a selective blockade of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which would potentially increase the supply of crude oil per ship, demonstrating to Israel that this war is going to cost them dearly.

Finally, it should be remembered that Israeli military censorship conceals some of the real damage. The situation, presented as "under control" by the government, could be even more complicated.

 

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JEEP said:
As much as one wants to root for the many saying no war because there's no evidence Iran has nukes, we know that's not true. Surely that truth is going to have to come out some way, some how - and then what?
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I actually think it might be good if the truth comes out about that because, but of course, I'm not super aware of the strategic advantages of keeping that a secret at this point.

What I mean is that, if Iran shows the world that they actually do have nukes, it might work as a deterrent to leave them alone (in terms of military intervention), just like it does with other countries that have nukes. Yes, the media is going to be all over the place, Neocons will be all over the place, Netanyahu will be all over the place, saying, "See? We told you so! Look how evil they are". And perhaps there will be sanctions, etc., etc., but at least it might work in the way of evading military actions.

One never knows how crazy Israel will react though, Iran being an "existential threat" for them and all that.
 
Interesting article on Iran's system of governance and difference w.r.t western form.

Iran’s political system: the philosophical Republic the West refuses – or is unable – to understand

Beyond theocracies, autocracies and democracies, the Islamic Republic is the materialization of Plato’s political ideas, Lucas Leiroz writes.

In an age of liberal disillusionment and institutional breakdown across the West, the Islamic Republic of Iran stands as an intellectual and strategic ‘miracle’ — a state built not on fleeting ideologies or party politics, but on civilizational continuity and philosophical depth. Western analysts routinely dismiss the Iranian model as a “theocracy,” a crude oversimplification that betrays more about their own ideological limitations than about Iran itself. Indeed, the Islamic Republic represents one of the most sophisticated institutional architectures of the contemporary world.

At the heart of Iran’s political order is the doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih — the Guardianship of the Jurist — formulated by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Inspired in part by Plato’s Republic, this principle postulates that the wisest and most morally upright individuals — in this case, qualified Islamic jurists — should serve as the ethical and strategic overseers of the state. Far from merely rejecting democracy, the Iranian system elevates and transcends it, fusing popular sovereignty with a higher ethical compass. It is a system that acknowledges the value of the vote but refuses to reduce governance to electoral cycles or populist impulses.

This political model did not emerge in a vacuum. It is the result of millennia of civilizational experience. From the Achaemenid Empire to the present Islamic Republic, Persia has endured waves of invasion — from Alexander the Great and the Arab conquests to Mongols, Turks, and now Zionist and Western imperialist pressures. Such historical continuity has shaped a political ethos that is strategic, vigilant, and fundamentally rational. In Iran, politics is not a game of electoral spectacle; it is a sacred extension of national defense — an instrument of civilizational survival in a hostile geopolitical environment.

The Iranian state blends republican institutions — presidency, parliament (Majlis), judiciary — with moral and doctrinal oversight mechanisms that ensure strategic coherence. The Supreme Leader, currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is not an autocrat but a guardian of national and spiritual sovereignty. Crucially, he is chosen by the Assembly of Experts — a body of 88 Islamic scholars elected by the people — grounding his authority in popular legitimacy. The president, meanwhile, is elected by universal suffrage and holds substantial executive powers, including the formation of the cabinet, control over fiscal policy, and diplomatic engagement. Yet, all of this operates within the framework of a constitution that prioritizes Iran’s Islamic and civilizational identity.

Other key institutions, such as the Guardian Council and the Expediency Discernment Council, function not as instruments of repression, but as balancing mechanisms. The Guardian Council reviews legislation for compliance with Islamic principles and constitutional norms. The Expediency Council resolves institutional disputes and advises the Supreme Leader. The Supreme National Security Council, integrating executive, legislative, judicial, and military representatives, sets strategic directives in response to ongoing foreign threats — from Mossad-backed sabotage to direct Israeli aggression.

The 2024 election of Masoud Pezeshkian, a reform-minded moderate, demonstrated not only the resilience of Iran’s political model but also its capacity for internal dynamism. Unlike the caricature of an authoritarian state, Iran exhibits vibrant political debate, genuine electoral competition, and institutional functionality — all within a framework that successfully resists foreign cultural and political impositions. In contrast to many so-called liberal democracies, where political transitions are marred by coups, polarization, and foreign meddling, Iran maintains a continuity rooted in values rather than polls.

While the West drowns in ideological fatigue, plagued by systemic crises and spiritual vacuity, Iran offers an alternative: a Republic rooted in philosophical purpose, guided by tradition, anchored in rational statecraft, and capable of long-term strategic thinking. It is a state that refuses to be colonized intellectually or politically. This fusion of ancient wisdom and modern governance is not only rare — it is untranslatable in the language of secular liberalism.

Indeed, it may be too much to expect that minds shaped by Enlightenment dogmas and neoliberal reductionism can comprehend a political system grounded in metaphysical order and civilizational self-awareness. Iran’s example does not ask to be imitated, but it demands to be understood — and respected — on its own terms.
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Though there are limitations to the 'believer' doctrines, the internal dynamic nature of the society (that survived for millennia's of change) and its adaptive politics to accommodate it, can't be ignored.
 
I guess Trump will just continue pushing the narrative that Iran is building a nuclear bomb to justify a US involvement.

I am also puzzled why Iran isn't disclosing having hundreds of them around (allegedly). What's their endgame? They have already been attacked and the US is on the cusp of jumping in. They only scenario that would make sense to me is that they would want to use them in a surprise attack (I hope not), but the window for a true surprise is closing fast with all the recent turns of events 🤔

I wonder if the C's would give a clarification as to why they are being secretive or if they would just go "No Dice!"
 
This is an interesting interview. His sources in the White House tell him that Donald Trump was briefed on the exact plan that the Israel's executed last week many months ago and offered no objections. He was 100% on board, and that Trump was a master at political deception. So he does believe the US will shortly join in the conflict, and whether the US just bombs the complexes (he thinks the underground missile facility is more important to hit than the nuke sites, because Israel is fucked as long as they have those 28k missiles there) and that the Israelis are not going to stop no matter what until they have regime change as that is what this entire war is about. The other interesting thing is that Israel was planning this massive strike back in October of last year when they last hit Iran, but they pulled back when they realized that Iran's missile defense complex was more sophisticated than they thought. They then went back and formulated the plan for the sabotage operation we saw last week. He does say he would not be surprised if the Iranians are holding a lot back for when the US gets involved.
 
Macrocosm said:
I guess Trump will just continue pushing the narrative that Iran is building a nuclear bomb to justify a US involvement.

I am also puzzled why Iran isn't disclosing having hundreds of them around (allegedly). What's their endgame? They have already been attacked and the US is on the cusp of jumping in. They only scenario that would make sense to me is that they would want to use them in a surprise attack (I hope not), but the window for a true surprise is closing fast with all the recent turns of events 🤔

I wonder if the C's would give a clarification as to why they are being secretive or if they would just go "No Dice!"
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Easy, (1) it would not deter Israel. They are going to seek regime change no matter what because them being countered by anyone in the Middle is just not acceptable. For strategic deterrence to work, the Israelis would have to be sane. I mean Israel already has to KNOW they have them based on all the ex spooks who have come forward and says Iran was given nukes by other nations, and they don't care. (2) You want as much ambiguity as to what you true ability to fight back is from a tactical perspective. Israel has hidden its nukes for the same reason. Everyone knows they have them as it was leaked decades ago (and the guy who did it was kidnapped in Italy I believe and put in an Israeli prison) and they still have not admitted it other than a few slipups by people like Netanyahu when he said they were a "nuclear power."
 
Macrocosm said:
I am also puzzled why Iran isn't disclosing having hundreds of them around (allegedly). What's their endgame?
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Iran had signed the The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Declaring itself a nuclear power might have serious repercussions such as with the United Nations and the relations with other countries who were not aware of the state of affairs.
 
From Sputnik:

Worlds Biggest Gas Field in Crosshairs: Qatar Sounds Alarm Amid Israels Iran Strikes

Qatar held urgent talks with major energy firms following Israeli strikes on Iran’s portion of a massive shared gas field in the Persian Gulf, according to Reuters.
Saad Al Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister and CEO of state-owned QatarEnergy, reportedly urged representatives of ExxonMobil and other giants to press Western governments – particularly the US, UK, and EU – about the rising threat to gas exports from Qatar amid Israel's strikes.

The gas field, known as South Pars in Iran and North Dome in Qatar, straddles the two nations’ maritime border.

Qatar began developing its side in the 1990s and has since emerged as a global LNG powerhouse.

Why It Matters​

  • World’s largest gas field: Estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet of gas (about 8% of global reserves)
  • Economic lifeline: Underpins Qatar’s economy and global LNG dominance
  • Massive LNG exports: Qatar supplies about 20% of the world’s LNG (any disruption would be a major shock to energy markets)
  • Multinational stakes: Ongoing expansion includes heavy investment from Western energy giants.
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So, are the giant energy corporations going to enter the fray - recalculating . . . recalculating . . .
 
From a Telegram post picked up by Pravda:

American soldiers complain that they are suddenly being fed restaurant delicacies instead of regular food
American soldiers complain that they are suddenly being fed restaurant delicacies instead of regular food. They say this has only happened once before, in 2003, just before the invasion of Iraq.

In the military environment, this is considered an alarming sign: such “concern” usually means that a large-scale operation is ahead.

Steak & lobster = war.
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Hospital wars - but only Iran gets the bad press.

Third hospital in Tehran deliberately targeted in a week of Israeli aggression
A third hospital in the Iranian capital Tehran was deliberately attacked early on Friday by the Zionist regime, according to Iran's ministry of health.

In a statement, the ministry's public relations wing said the latest act of aggression marks the third instance of a public health facility being targeted during a week of wanton aggression.

"Another hospital in Tehran was targeted by rockets by the Zionist regime at 4:45 AM on June 20, 2025," Dr. Hossein Karampur, the director of the ministry's public relations department, wrote on X.

Last week, a children's hospital in Tehran was also targeted, which resulted in a number of injuries and damage to the hospital building.

In addition to the three hospitals, at least six ambulances and one health service center have also been directly and deliberately hit in Israeli aerial strikes in one week, amounting to brazen violation of international conventions.
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