Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

Alexander Dugin is certainly in the same camp as today's statements from Putin and Lavrov, but he takes it one step further. This excerpt is taken from a recent RT report. One issue I believe he is wrong about is this: he says, as other are saying, the the straights or Hormuz are close and the Red Sea closed. I find no evidence of that being true, but certainly the Red Sea is being avoided. But that issue doesn't detract from the rest of the article, which can give an idea of what Russia's are thinking.

"Some still cling to the illusion that World War III might somehow pass us by. It won’t. We are already in the thick of it."

"The question isn’t whether to fight. Russia is already fighting. The question is how. The old methods are exhausted. That means we’ll have to find a new way to fight – and fast."


This excerpt taken from much longer article with other voice, which I will post below:


Alexander Dugin, political philosopher and geopolitical analyst​

"Some still cling to the illusion that World War III might somehow pass us by. It won’t. We are already in the thick of it. The US has carried out a bombing strike against Iran – our ally. Nothing stopped them. And if nothing stopped them from bombing Iran, then nothing will stop them from targeting us next. At some point, they may decide that Russia, like Iran, shouldn’t be allowed to possess nuclear weapons – or find some other pretext to strike. Make no mistake: we are at war.

The US can attack whether we advance or retreat. It’s not about strategy – it’s about will. Ukraine may not be Israel in the eyes of the West, but it plays a similar role. Israel didn’t always exist; it was created and quickly became a proxy for the collective West – though some Israelis would argue the opposite, that the West is merely a proxy for Israel. Ukraine has followed the same trajectory. No wonder Zelensky isn’t asking for Western support – he’s demanding it, including nuclear arms. The model is clear. And just like Israel bombs Gaza with impunity, Kiev bombarded Donbass for years – albeit with fewer resources and less restraint from Moscow.

Our appeals to the UN and calls for peace have become meaningless. If Iran falls, Russia is next. Trump, once again, is firmly in the grip of the neocons – just as he was during his first term. The MAGA project is over. There is no “great America,” only standard-issue globalism in its place.

Trump thinks he can strike once – like he did with Soleimani – and then walk it back. But there’s no walking this back. He has triggered a world war he cannot control, let alone win.

Now, everything hinges on Iran. If it stays on its feet and keeps fighting, it might still prevail. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Houthis have blocked traffic in the Red Sea. As new players enter the fray, the situation will evolve rapidly. China will try to stay out – for now. Until the first blow lands on them, too.

But if Iran folds, it won’t just lose itself – it will expose the rest of us.
That includes Russia, now facing an existential choice. The question isn’t whether to fight. Russia is already fighting. The question is how. The old methods are exhausted. That means we’ll have to find a new way to fight – and fast."

 
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Trump’s frustration seems sincere. I suppose this song and dance he did was meant to be closely listened to and followed, with lots of innuendo and reading between the lines. But it looks like he is being ignored by both Iran and Israel. And there’s nothing a personality like his hates more.

I hope Russia’s official statements on the matter reach him.
 
Also reading Trump's twitter, Medvedev's replies, Iran's replies, Israel's replies, and other middle-east countries chiming in, and Joe's FB commentary on all of it is absolutely hilarious. I never expected to be so entertained on the brink of what could turn into a real global conflict. If this wasn't real life I'd say I'm watching a multiplayer Xbox match by trash-talking 10 year-olds, except all these retards have actual nukes and there's real lives on the line. I know the rest of the world is following along with this drama in utter disbelief, and I'd love to be a fly on Putin's wall just to hear his commentary on all of this.
There's a 'campy' aspect to all of it, so unreal. Is this Cosmic Mind's sense of humor?

campy

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Camp (n.) and Campy (adj.): Being so extreme that it has an amusing and sometimes perversely sophisticated appeal. Over the top and farcical, intentionally exaggerated so as not to be taken seriously. Found primarily in television, theatre and motion pictures, camp endeavors for satire and, for those who fully understand and appreciate the risible nature of its material, it's not surprising when it develops a cult following.
 
Trump’s frustration seems sincere. I suppose this song and dance he did was meant to be closely listened to and followed, with lots of innuendo and reading between the lines. But it looks like he is being ignored by both Iran and Israel. And there’s nothing a personality like his hates more.

I hope Russia’s official statements on the matter reach him.
Putin needs to have a long private talk with Trump. Lay everything out on the table as it is, no posturing, just frank and open conversation about the situation and the greater context of where the world is heading. Trump doesn't want to support Ukraine OR Israel really, he is being pressured in both cases, and he never had any real animosity against Putin or Russia. Yeah he's an egotist and might have some dementia now, and he doesn't read or understand the deeper/larger context of what's happening and why, but he's not a psychopath, and Putin, who has infinitely more knowledge and is a great communicator, could get through to him. The real problem is - will that do anything good? Would there be any opportunity to leverage Trump being president to make any meaningful changes? Or will the deep state swap out Trump and continue on its anti-Russia armageddon path, making the conversation largely futile?

I dunno, I just feel like there's an opportunity right now - Trump is over Ukraine, and he's annoyed with Israel, and Putin should jump in and say "welcome to the club" and request an 8-hour long emergency meeting. Just say it's because of the world situation being dangerously close to WW3, and it's not entirely a lie, but it should mainly be a last ditch effort to inject some sense into Trump, and through him, into US, at least while he's still president. But it might just postpone the inevitable at best anyway. Worth a shot tho!

Putin needs to make it clear to Trump that he's not fighting him or American people, that they're all against the same swamp. And Trump may be running out of allies and needs some real reinforcements.
 
Here's a comment by someone who supposedly has an inner knowledge regarding Middle East affairs (translated from Russian):

Well, let's summarize what we observed without conspiracy theories and see who remained in the black.:

1. The main beneficiary, of course, is Netanyahu. Israel did a significant damage to Iran, involved the United States and almost completed the maximum program at the moment (the minimum program was completed as a whole), and slightly strengthened his internal position. He still has problems inside Israel, but objectively he looks better than before the attack on Iran. Of course, neither the Iranians' nuclear nor missile programs have been destroyed and will continue, but at least they can be suspended and discarded for a certain amount of time.

2. The second beneficiary is China, which could out of the blue, firstly, lose the oil and gas supplies it needs so much right now and (if the mess continues) lose an important chain in its "silk road". In fact, if the Yankees had been consistent in their holy struggle against China, then, logically, they should have continued once they got involved. But so far it's been lucky - Donald is probably not up to it now.

3. Iran is among the losers, and no matter what anyone says, given the scale of the damage (primarily political and factual), the attempts of some of our and other experts to present Iran as a winner or at least not a loser are ridiculous in themselves.

The fact that they bounced back from the dismantling of the regime (yes, the Iranians' direct confrontation with the United States and Israel, plus, perhaps, with the British, did not cause anyone illusions and should partly sweeten the pill of complacency) here and now at such a price should not be perceived as a victory. Despite the slogans and the constantly demonstrated determination, everyone (including on the inside) is now convinced that there are boundaries.

By the way, this is in theory bad for internal stability and will trigger the processes of consolidation of moderates within the regime. In the future, this may also lead to a crisis. Because you can't constantly declare one thing, and then retreat - it's bad for karma, they will stop taking their own seriously.

By the way, it was the same for Assad in Syria. Few people believed in fighting the Jews to the last drop of their blood, and there were a lot of wild theories about a deal with Israel through Asma's wife.

4. And what about us? (i.e Russia) (I won't say much about the countries of the Persian Gulf region. As the classics wrote - "the horse got off with a slight fright"). In general, despite the logical majority of sympathizers towards the Iranians, the situation is a plus for the Russian Federation. After the loss of Syria, the loss of Iran could finally bury our architecture/infrastructure (the word is too strong, I understand, for what we have here) in the Middle East, and other East directions. And that would have finally cut off our African efforts. Plus, North-South, again, would wave a handkerchief in goodbye. But now it is possible to continue with all kind of "peacemaking" gestures and participate in the restoration of small things, without this being particularly distracting from the SMO.

And this:

Subscribers noticed that the United States was missing from my impromptu summary. I did it quite deliberately.)) They should not be listed as either losers or winners, doesn't matter what Trump writes on his (Truth Social) account.

In general, Trump seems to have managed to wriggle out of the fork in the road/crossroads. It looks, of course, comical and theatrical, and thus devalues everything. But, nevertheless, a long war would be completely out of place for him.

Inside the United States, Trump will still receive sediment and discontent, both from conditional hawks and conditional pigeons. Some are unhappy with the fact that the Iranians had to be finished off (how is another question), others ask the question why did they even have to get involved in this?

The damage in this case for Trump, and in general for the United States, is image-based, it became obvious to everyone that the Americans had to enter under pressure from Israel, and also that that the United States cannot be taken seriously with any negotiations now, at least under this administration.
 
Quote Trump: "I'm playing both sides". Now suddenly taking Israel "to task" as well. And now again we are confronted with the dilemma: Has Trump done what he did on purpose so far because there is a rather unique "grand strategy behind it" (like, for example, getting Israel of his back), "playing 4D chess" or whatever, or is he simply flip-flopping again to a better position (for now), more or less unconsciously? Or does he want to save face? And/or is he actually a channel of sorts?:

I think it is worth to repost what Dugin said here:




and here:



What about this idea:

Trump in one way or the other is a channel for forces while he probably isn’t really aware of it and it is our job (and quite literally all of us in the world who aim for something higher/good!) to in one way or the other try to make the channel aware that he can also tune in to the good side of the “information field“ if he wants and make a decision based not only on the bad radio stations but also the good stations and compare it to what is in his own instincts that is probably leaning more towards STO.

If so, what everyone of us does in this and upcoming crucial crossways might be of significant importance to how things will turn out at the end. Sharing and discussing here and in places like X might create butterfly effects between all people with good will worldwide, eventually co-informing each other on what is really going on nonlinearly, and by doing so, eventually constantly also reaching people close to Trump with good will who then can inform the channel. And then the channel can decide.

Are we seeing a battle fought trough people like Trump through the influence of people worldwide?

Also, we should still judge people by their fruits and say what you will in a strange way Trump still hasn't really started a war while also making the situation more dangerous at the same time while giving the other side fodder to actually have more abilities to "take the empire down". What a show. Notice also how people like Medvedev and Putin seem to really think that there is something good in/with Trump, and by knowing how he operates they seem to try to steer "the channel" to saner positions to consider. Or so it seems to me.
 
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I think one of the things that came to my mind, a lot of times over the years, when Trump is doing something is the following question:

Can you actually be that stupid/naive, especially in such a position? I'm leaning towards him being a strange "force of nature" (and/or an archetype of sorts) in some ways, who actually IS quite incredibly naive, easily wooed by people telling him nice things about himself and what he is doing, but also having a good and kind heart while liking to entertain people with "big shows" and "fun and games". Maybe he is also a bit "retarded" or something. A person easily exploited by others, but at the same time having instincts that are going more into the direction of STO.

Or, he is after all "the grand strategist of Trump world" and playing us all for fools. Don't think so, though.
 
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But what he does is working. All the rest is just non relevant noise. I think that this will not continue now. It came out to be just testing the strengths at the end. Although its obvious that Israel meant differently at the beginning.

BTW, Putin is serious and very sane, and did nothing in this situation. Crazy Trump did something.
I too think it is working. Somehow or other. Reminds me of behaviour of crazy mystics, so-called, who do inexplicable things and somehow the energy/events benefit.

It seemed like there was a kind of change in energy after this past Friday. I think we all track the larger events with some part of our awareness, sometimes feeling like something big or different happened. Not everything affects each of us and not to replace analyzing the news indications and checking biases! I double check if it's wishful thinking that something worked, or at least a bad turn was minimized.

Trump probably upsets the PTB the way we get upset at his actions and speeches (I hope), but they'd have different issues that piss them off. Odd to consider that Trump may be unbalanced, but may also be balanced in the extreme between the two camps. It would be as if he listens naively to one set of advisors and acts and then listens as naively to others and runs with whatever he has heard most recently.

From what I've seen of his history and interactions with his past employees in interviews and print, he is a well-intentioned, much loved guy by those whom he interacts with in person, at least when not in politics.

I wonder, maybe it's possible Dr. Klinghardt through RFK Jr puts him on Lithium orotate and a few other things to support his brain function. Then again, maybe not...
 
I don't find him remarkable at all, quite the opposite. As pathetic as Biden, or more so. We knew about Biden, but we're discovering Trump. Many analysts are starting to think he's crazy, that he's suffering from dementia. Let's say he's playing the clown, but the situation isn't funny at all. It's even very serious, and Putin says so. Also, let's say the Israelis are blackmailing him, or they told him, "Do this or your family will be killed." It's enough to drive you crazy, but he must have been thinking about that first when he received money from the Jews for his nomination. I think we all pay when we make bad decisions, and he either doesn't know how to question himself, or he can't think about how to escape this situation.
Or instead of “we will kill your family”, “we will detonate the 100 dirty bombs that have been planted all across America”….
 
But what he does is working. All the rest is just non relevant noise. I think that this will not continue now. It came out to be just testing the strengths at the end. Although its obvious that Israel meant differently at the beginning.

BTW, Putin is serious and very sane, and did nothing in this situation. Crazy Trump did something.

Did you expect a Russian version of Top Gun? Putin has addressed this type of critique directly.

“Those who say we should have done more—what exactly do they mean by ‘more’? Start some military operations—is that it? We are already engaged in military operations against those we consider to be adversaries of the ideas we stand for, and against those who pose a threat to the Russian Federation. And these, essentially, are the same forces—whether in Iran’s case or in Russia’s—they’re somewhere in the rear, behind the front lines. But they’re not even those on the line of contact,” said Vladimir Putin during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 20, commenting on the claim that “Russia is an unreliable ally because it didn’t stand up for Iran.” Notably, the Russian president chose his words very carefully and spoke with great precision.

Aside from demilitarizing NATO for three years, I read this piece by Helmer and it suggests Russia has been involved in Iran specifically to some extent.


According to the Unified Rules of Boxing issued by the US Association of Boxing Commissions and Combative Sports, when the bell sounds for the end of each round, there is a “rest period” before the boxers resume their fight, or one retires too hurt to continue.

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran which President Donald Trump (lead image, left, right) has congratulated himself for arranging is the bell sounding for the rest period to begin.

Iran’s rope-a-dope strategy allows rest periods. But for this strategy to succeed, the rest periods must be too short for Israel to be re-supplied by the US, Germany and other allies, compared to the re-supply arrangements which Iran is now trying to make with Russia, China, North Korea and other sources.

Since Trump’s first announcement allowed Israel and Iran to continue striking each other for six hours, his deadline was roughly 7 am Teheran time today, June 24. In reply, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, announced “there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Teheran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”

According to Trump, “Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, ‘PEACE!’” Trump has then claimed he had forced them. “We couldn’t have made today’s ‘deal’ without the talent and courage of our great B-2 pilots, and all of those associated with that operation. In a certain and very ironic way, that perfect ‘hit’, late in the evening, brought everyone together, and the deal was made!!!”

Sources in Moscow say the terms of the Trump “deal” are quite different.

On the one hand, according to the sources, Trump understands that unless he orders a halt to US arms supplies and battlefield intelligence to the regime in Kiev, Russia will not halt its arms supplies and intelligence-sharing with Iran. The sources add that for the time being Iran is not requesting fresh Russian aid. “Several individuals have been moved under Russian protection; these are individuals and families who have been moved into Russia. North Korean deliveries have been crucial in the run-up — they are basically Chinese. So Iran has not been lacking. They have been ready. Also, they have the capacity to fire several large missiles per day for several weeks, if not months, which the Israelis and Americans cannot stop. These will get through to Israel’s water, gas, and electricity plants, other fuel supplies, and ports.”

The assessment in Moscow is that Iran has demonstrated it has escalation control for the long term, and that in the short term Israel needs US re-supply, re-financing, and recovery more urgently than Iran. In exchange for Trump’s “ceasefire” to meet the Israeli requests, President Vladimir Putin has communicated that Trump must do nothing to block the acceleration of Russia’s offensive in the Ukraine.

When Foreign Minister Araghchi met President Putin at the Kremlin on Monday, Putin was accompanied for the first time by the head of military intelligence (GRU), Admiral Igor Kostyukov. Kostyukov was also a lead figure in the Russian negotiating team for the last round of Istanbul negotiations with the Ukrainians.

In the Kremlin website’s record of remarks, Putin did not mention Israel or the US as the attacker: “The completely unprovoked act of aggression against Iran is without foundation or justification. Russia has long-standing, strong, and trustworthy relations with Iran, and we are committed to supporting the Iranian people through our continued efforts.”

Araghchi’s reply was more explicit. “As you are well aware, the level of escalation continues to grow by the day. Unfortunately, we have come under attack – not only from Israel, but also from the United States, which has chosen to strike our facilities. These acts of aggression by Israel and the US are entirely illegitimate and in violation of international law and established norms. We are now defending our sovereignty and our country, and our defence is fully legitimate. We are grateful to our Russian colleagues and friends for their principled stance and for their resolute condemnation of these acts of aggression. Today, Russia stands on the right side of history and of international law… I hope we will have the opportunity today to discuss the full range of issues related to these developments.”

The closed-door discussion then focused on the military and diplomatic proposals which Araghchi tabled.

For Putin, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said after the meeting that the President continues to balance his approach between Israel and Iran. “Iran and Israel have completely different positions”, Peskov said, “the situation is very tense.” Yury Ushakov, foreign policy advisor to Putin who was also present, has not given a public read-out.

The semi-public debate outside the Kremlin walls is critical of the “balanced approach”. The most direct expression of this came the day before, on June 22, from Dmitry Medvedev, currently deputy secretary of the Security Council, who published on his Telegram channel a 10-point attack on both the US and Israel, and implied Russian support for Iran to develop nuclear-armed deterrence against future war threats.

How seriously the Trump Administration understood this to be was signalled when Trump himself followed with an attempt to put Medvedev in his place: “Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY. The ‘N word’ should not be treated so casually. I guess that’s why Putin’s ‘THE BOSS.’” US presidents never address foreign officials at Medvedev’s current rank.

What US and Russian sources understand to be the pressing problem of the “rest period” is that Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia will now concert their efforts to open the railroad connection through Pakistan and Turkmenistan for military supplies. The Caspian Sea and Turkmenbashi-Sarakhs gateways for such a connection were reported here.

A well-informed source adds: “Pakistan will play the Chinese side. And it will be a reliable route of Chinese supplies notwithstanding US inducements and threats. Russians and Chinese must measure very carefully what, how, and how much is needed to prevent a collapse in Teheran. This means, not so much the preservation of the clerical order as the protection of Iran itself from partition.” Follow the US-Israeli plan for regime change and partition of Iran starting here:

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A Moscow source comments: “This [war] is not ending. This is not the beginning of any end either. The Iranians have been hurt and damaged; they are bleeding. No one should underestimate what’s been done to them. No one should underestimate the scale of the internal bleeding. But with that, the state, the Islamic Republic, however difficult as a partner, must remain. That’s the key. Russians and Chinese can’t do it by themselves. No amount of logistics and materiel can. ”

The problems of mutual and reciprocal distrust between Russia and Iran are centuries old, as reported here and here. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly advertised this just hours before Araghchi arrived at the Kremlin.

Araghchi has had next to nothing to say publicly before he left Moscow for Turkmenistan.

Later in the same evening, Teheran reported that Iran’s Defense Minister, Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, had telephoned Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. These Iranian signals indicate that Putin has given a green light for what he told Araghchi are “ways we might work together to navigate the current situation.”

In parallel, also late on Monday evening, Lavrov authorized the Foreign Ministry to issue a statement explicitly naming Israel and the US together in a war for regime change in Teheran, and for “encroach[ment] on the sovereignty of the country” (diplospeak for partition):

Yevgeny Krutikov, a former GRU field officer who writes for Vzglyad, the Moscow platform for discussion of the strategic and operational options, has commented: “Israel has unleashed a hopeless and unneeded war, from which everyone is now looking for a way out so that everyone is not ashamed to look in the mirror. If in Tel Aviv it was believed that war is a competition of ‘who has more missiles’, suddenly it has turned out that the war with Iran is a more multifaceted phenomenon which Tel Aviv cannot cope with alone. So now everyone has become morose.”

Russian sources will not go so far as to say that Iran has won escalation control from Israel, at least not yet. The sources also repeat how much punishment the rope-a-dope strategy has inflicted on the Iranians. “Russians know they are the only ones who can fight and deliver a comprehensive strategic defeat. Not even the Chinese can do as effectively what Russians are doing in the Ukraine. So now that Trump has entered the Iranian battlefield, it’s up to Putin to convince him to withdraw from both. Well, maybe not convince – persuade may be the better word. Come the NATO meeting [June 24-25], our eyes will be on whether Trump delivers Kiev’s capitulation to Russia’s terms, or we have to take it.”
 
Putin needs to have a long private talk with Trump. Lay everything out on the table as it is, no posturing, just frank and open conversation about the situation and the greater context of where the world is heading. Trump doesn't want to support Ukraine OR Israel really, he is being pressured in both cases, and he never had any real animosity against Putin or Russia. Yeah he's an egotist and might have some dementia now, and he doesn't read or understand the deeper/larger context of what's happening and why, but he's not a psychopath, and Putin, who has infinitely more knowledge and is a great communicator, could get through to him. The real problem is - will that do anything good? Would there be any opportunity to leverage Trump being president to make any meaningful changes? Or will the deep state swap out Trump and continue on its anti-Russia armageddon path, making the conversation largely futile?

I dunno, I just feel like there's an opportunity right now - Trump is over Ukraine, and he's annoyed with Israel, and Putin should jump in and say "welcome to the club" and request an 8-hour long emergency meeting. Just say it's because of the world situation being dangerously close to WW3, and it's not entirely a lie, but it should mainly be a last ditch effort to inject some sense into Trump, and through him, into US, at least while he's still president. But it might just postpone the inevitable at best anyway. Worth a shot tho!

Putin needs to make it clear to Trump that he's not fighting him or American people, that they're all against the same swamp. And Trump may be running out of allies and needs some real reinforcements.
You underestimate Trumps stupidity, he is unable to listen and to understand what he hears, being frank and honest doesn't work with narcissist egomaniacs
 
You underestimate Trumps stupidity, he is unable to listen and to understand what he hears, being frank and honest doesn't work with narcissist egomaniacs
You are making claims about something you cannot possibly know. Yes, there is some evidence that Trump is not quite as bright, but there is also evidence that his heart is in the right place (including the C's saying the same).
 
I think one of the things that came to my mind, a lot of times over the years, when Trump is doing something is the following question:

Can you actually be that stupid/naive, especially in such a position? I'm leaning towards him being a strange "force of nature" (and/or an archetype of sorts) in some ways, who actually IS quite incredibly naive, easily wooed by people telling him nice things about himself and what he is doing, but also having a good and kind heart while liking to entertain people with "big shows" and "fun and games". Maybe he is also a bit "retarded" or something. A person easily exploited by others, but at the same time having instincts that are going more into the direction of STO.

Or, he is after all "the grand strategist of Trump world" and playing us all for fools. Don't think so, though.

Well, for someone who is often seen as quite simple and straightforward in his approach, he is proving unpredictable and very hard to read at times. His messages are erratic and confusing but he seems to be stumbling through somehow, and every time he pisses me off he then ends up making me laugh. I can't dislike him in the way I do most of the political class. It feels like he has the possibility of getting things done through sheer force of will, or at least causing untold frustration for psychos who are used to unquestioning compliance. It's the Mandate of Heaven, I tell you!
 

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