Iran, Israel and Trump
Just some thoughts, no real data points and really no idea the steps that could take place.
The fist deals with Oil and the picture of it being delivered (or not) out of the Straights of Hormuz. The numbers are big – like 20%, yet what does the big global picture look like and to those that have skin in the game?
Shipping (just from easily accusable internet links).
Searching a few questions (no AI), wanted to know what the scope of shipping looked like and a further breakdown into oil. It is actually a bit mind boggling. Moreover, the commerce done in it its name; the ports, delivers, production and on and on.
- There are between 40 and 60,000 ships on any given day upon our world oceans.
- There are roughly 4,421 container ships each crossing oceans or loading and unloading (owned by 13 corporations)
- Given the average size, there are 15,000 containers per ship (incredible as that sounds) which totals 66,315,000 containers at sea. A ULCC type of ship can carry 40,000 containers - that sounds crazy.
- The average Panamax sized ships carried 2,000,000 gallons of fuel (that is 8.8 billion gallons for this container fleet).
- There seems to be about 8 - 9,000 oil tankers in range from smallest to largest – dtw is draft ton weight:
- Panamax (down to,1,000 dwt), Aframax, Suezmax, VLCC and the ULCC (up to 440,000 dwt or 2,000,000 barrels).
Another article mentions 4,500 tankers ranging in size, so I’m not sure.
The global movement of tanker oil and other liquid fuel is around 104 million b/d
In broad terms, there are 14.4 million terajoules of energy traveling on the sea each day. Not sure if Lloyds of London are the exclusive insurer of them all - think about the premiums on 60,000 ships. And speaking of Lloyd, if you look up Lloyd's List of ports, they tell us that there are (commercially active):
2,916 Ports
4,161 Harbours
15,410 Wharves
1,860 Berths:
All of this above and what it connects to is a colossal system that impacts us all.
Here is the visual shocker of the big picture
on any given day provided by Marine Traffic (in no order). Hormuz is seen on the 5th:
Ship size:
This is the status quo, and it is also the big question mark as it begins to stall or stop due to war.
Cont...