AR: This is a big concern for me because we have seen this cheerleading talk from the trader in chief where he says, "Guys, we're going to wrap it up in 2 or 3 weeks. We've decimated their navy. We've decimated their economy. We want to decimate now their infrastructure."
I'm very concerned this weekend. Friday is a holiday on the financial markets. It's going to be thin trading going into the financial markets on Monday. Today is the last trading technically full trading day before we go into the US markets tomorrow. Um, which are closed.
The first markets that are going to open up after the Easter break is not the stock exchange. They're going to be the derivatives market. And the Trump administration, they know this. And again, I cannot say enough to uh the viewers out there. If you don't know about derivatives and uh futures and the option market, you need to learn about it quickly. Uh again, uh I implore you to try to get educated, watch some programs about it. People can reach out to me, they can reach out to my email if they want. Uh I can, you know, point them in the right direction or chat about it because there's going to be a lot of people really worried this weekend.
My concerns, Alexander and Alex, is what are the Americans cooking this weekend? What are they up to? Are they just going to say, "You know what? Yeah, we're going to show our cards for the next two weeks. Don't worry everybody. This will be over in a couple of weeks. It'll be fine. Everything's good." And then the next thing you know, a major strike happens or a major hit happens or something that is so surprising will hit the market. I am very concerned going into this weekend.
What do the Israelis and the Americans have in their sights? This is a major concern for me and this could have a huge impact uh on the I would say the global economies. This weekend is probably one of the biggest weekends. If it's going to be quiet and calm, okay, not so bad.
But the Americans lately,every time they say everything's out about to wrap up, they're sending more soldiers over and uh preparing for something. I I don't got a good feeling about it.
AM: I think you're absolutely right by the way. I I don't have a good feeling about it either. Can I last very last comment which is again about China. I mean I once upon a time long ago I used to take an interest in um Chinese and Indian but also Chinese philosophies and um one of the things that the the Chinese and it wasn't just a philosophical thing. It was also a political principle. I'm sure you've heard of it.
Wooi dowist idea no action and um it's been described that you um effortless natural action that allow
aligns with flow rather than forcing outcomes. In other words, you let things take their course and then you try and shape them as they do. You don't try to manipulate and force outcomes. you let things work for you in a kind of a way. Is that what China is doing at the moment?
AR: Well, yeah. Up until uh the phone calls started going on between Pakistan and China, there is concern here. There's a lot of concern. Uh the Chinese don't want the global economy to be hit because they're, you know, their factories are going to be hit. Can I ask you gentlemen, um you guys have been covering this probably some of the greatest coverage out there. Some of the people that have been on your shows for the last couple of weeks have been very calming to the average person to give us a very good insight on what's going on in this conflict. I ask you um what do you guys think is going to happen this weekend? It's important for people like myself that's involved in the derivatives market to try to gauge the sentiment of what people feel is going on. It's it's not about fundamentals right now. It's about seeing the feeling in the market and uh it's concerning.
AM: Well, you know, we we're obviously not here to steer markets, but what I will say is this. We've just done a big program, Alex and I, and both of us agreed, and I think the president's comments last night pointed to continued greater escalation. There is no sign of any kind of diplomatic approach being taken.
The Chinese are offering one. They're setting out their position. They're saying, "Come to us. We're here to help you." But the Chinese can talk to the Iranians, but it's the Americans also who have to make a decision that they want to end the war. And I have to say at the moment I don't get that sense. And well, I just people in the markets, but that's our analysis. And you know people can wherever they are whatever they do they can listen to it and draw their own conclusions.
AR: When you watched that speech last night and thanks guys for answering that. Thank you. I appreciate it. When you watched that speech last night did it seem apparent to you that maybe uh there is no plan how to get out of this?
AM: Well, I think it's a point we've been saying for a very long time. There's the the plan that existed at the beginning, which is the assumption that everything in Iran would collapse, didn't work. So now we have a situation where there is no plan at all and the president and his officials are scrambling around looking for something to do. That's how it seems to us. The point is that at the moment the momentum is towards further escalation. It is not towards looking for a solution, a way a diplomatic way out because the political costs of that would be very high and the president doesn't want to pay them.
And of course beyond that there's issues of face which unfortunately the reality is they're always very important in politics. So that's that's that's our own assessment.
) Reporterfy, who among other things makes analyses of, and coaches trading in, the derivatives market, Not for the faint of heart. They talk about the effects the war is having on that market, and how traders, including Iran, are gaming it based on Trump's various announcements, and Iran's responses. The whole thing is worth a watch. 
) and would have never guessed having more banks is such a critical factor! Around my town, a small business will close and a bank or savings and loan will take its place which seemed like a bad thing.
