Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

I’d like to enter my immediate image recognition after seeing this:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...cc9-c3b5-4bc1-a580-3b1d8b0dd6fb_1500x812.jpeg
Add: what is supposed to be this?
View attachment 117973

This looks a lot like predictive programming from the “Stranger Things” series.
Once our reality is completely inverted and we enter the “Upside Down” world of the psychos.
I bet it’s the Demogorgon!
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I just read an essay by a fellow named Micheal Smith who mentions this exact scenario. His advice is for everyone to read Trumps book “Art of the Deal” if one is to really understand his methods.
[…]
“For your opponent to perceive unpredictability is an advantage in a negotiation because it is an advantage that your opponent cannot figure out your next step. A classic example of this is when Nixon was negotiating to open China—the Chinese were genuinely afraid of him because he created the image of unpredictability and they came to the table because they thought he was batshit crazy and would do the things he said he would do.”
 
Wouldn't the US need to move their ships closer, and risk getting attacked by Iran? They would probably need more ships than they currently have there for an effective blockade. And are they going to block Chinese ships and risk drawing them directly into the conflict? China could just stop selling them rare earths, like what happened last time when Trump tried his 10000% sanctions game on them, but he was forced to back down.
All very good questions! But never fear, Trump has an AMAZING plan to make it all work. Just wait! It'll be the greatest blockade in the history of historical blockades, on this planet and every other in the entire universe.
 
The naval blockade is a poorly thought out plan, but it doesn't necessarily require US ships to be any nearer the Strait of Hormuz itself. They can intercept tankers elsewhere on their route, in international waters, in a similar way to what they have already been doing but on a larger scale. Some would argue that was always the goal, with disruption of shipping heading to China the main objective.

Except the Russian navy has already started escorting some of its "shadow fleet" tankers, and that seems to make sure they are left alone. So does we expect that China wouldn't do the same if necessary. This is all just the usual attempted intimidation tactics by Trump, "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing".
 
I just read an essay by a fellow named Micheal Smith who mentions this exact scenario. His advice is for everyone to read Trumps book “Art of the Deal” if one is to really understand his methods.
[…]
“For your opponent to perceive unpredictability is an advantage in a negotiation because it is an advantage that your opponent cannot figure out your next step. A classic example of this is when Nixon was negotiating to open China—the Chinese were genuinely afraid of him because he created the image of unpredictability and they came to the table because they thought he was batshit crazy and would do the things he said he would do.”

Except Trump's "unpredictability" is tarnished by a heavy dose of complete nonsensical utterances. If you want your unpredictability to work, you really should avoid acting like a completely delusional buffoon, for all the world to see.
 
All very good questions! But never fear, Trump has an AMAZING plan to make it all work. Just wait! It'll be the greatest blockade in the history of historical blockades, on this planet and every other in the entire universe.

"How to rule the world without attracting the attention of the orderlies."

(c) Don Tzu
 
Tzipi Livni, former minister and former Mossad official, expresses her view: "Netanyahu is disintegrating the State of Israel."

Tzipi Livni


A very virulent message, a true thunderbolt in Israeli public debate. Tzipi Livni—former Deputy Prime Minister, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Justice (one of the most influential figures in Israeli politics over the last twenty years), former Member of Knesset, and former Mossad agent—published a message on X that has already surpassed one million views and is sparking intense discussion.

The accusation, formulated in Hebrew against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is extremely harsh: "A sovereign state possesses territory, a law for all, and a monopoly on weapons. Israel has no recognized borders; there is no longer a single law or justice for all, but rather a system of religious law and justice parallel to state law, and armed and violent militias triggering riots at their whim. The Israeli government is disintegrating the State of Israel."

Tzipi Livni and her explosive accusation

Tzipi Livni is a prominent figure on the Israeli political scene. Born in 1958, the former Mossad agent held nine ministerial positions, served as chief negotiator during peace talks with the Palestinians, and narrowly failed to become Prime Minister in 2009. She began her career within Likud, Netanyahu's party, before moving toward centrist positions, leading the Kadima and Hatnua parties, and eventually withdrawing from political life. It was Netanyahu himself who removed her from power in 2014 due to her internal criticisms.

Today, although she no longer sits in Parliament, she remains a respected voice on the international stage for her experience and moderate approach. This stance comes at a delicate moment for Israel, which is engaged in an existential war on multiple fronts, notably against the Islamic Republic of Iran—a situation that is not unfolding as favorably as hoped for the Tel Aviv-Washington coalition.

In a country where Benjamin Netanyahu's government is supported by a right-wing and ultra-religious coalition, and where the dominant discourse since October 7 has been one of "national unity" against external enemies, Livni's words resonate like a bomb. This is not an ordinary left-wing critique: it comes from a woman who served the state for decades, who negotiated with the Palestinians, and who understands the inner workings of power. The message is clear: this is not a simple political disagreement, but an orchestrated institutional disintegration by "Bibi," a bellicose president who risks leading Israel to self-destruction.

The justice crisis and Trump's pressures

The judicial system, in particular, is extremely sensitive and problematic. A fragile pillar of an already besieged democracy, it is undergoing an unprecedented crisis under the direct threat of Benjamin Netanyahu. As Haaretz highlights in an analysis, five years after his indictment and in the midst of trial, Netanyahu has sought a presidential pardon. A few months earlier, during a speech to the Knesset last October, Donald Trump ironically remarked: "Mr. President, why don't you grant him a pardon?" What began as a suggestion in jest quickly transformed into a real request, then degenerated into virulent personal attacks against Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who was accused by Trump of not immediately granting the pardon.

Normally, the Minister of Justice would have forwarded their opinion to the presidency. But Yariv Levin, the minister in charge of the matter, is so close to the Prime Minister that he abstained from the vote—not out of fear of a conflict of interest, but rather out of fear that his signature would make the recommendation too vulnerable to legal challenges, as Haaretz reports. In a grotesque maneuver, his ideological double was appointed in his place: the Minister of Heritage, Amichai Eliyahu, a member of the white supremacist party Otzma Yehudit and a notorious religious fanatic. The least surprising revelation soon followed: Eliyahu recommended granting the pardon.

"The justifications contained in his 17-page document," writes Haaretz, "offer one of the most shocking glimpses into current Israeli political culture: a mafia theocracy, based on divine will, arbitrary decrees, and a multitude of legal systems designed for those who claim the right to choose and seek to annihilate the rights and protections guaranteed by law to all." A very dangerous fanatic drift that some in Israel have the courage to denounce.
Source
 
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