Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

[Fluffy]

I just read an essay by a fellow named Micheal Smith who mentions this exact scenario. His advice is for everyone to read Trumps book “Art of the Deal” if one is to really understand his methods.
[…]
“For your opponent to perceive unpredictability is an advantage in a negotiation because it is an advantage that your opponent cannot figure out your next step. A classic example of this is when Nixon was negotiating to open China—the Chinese were genuinely afraid of him because he created the image of unpredictability and they came to the table because they thought he was batshit crazy and would do the things he said he would do.”

That book was written 30 years ago, long before he realised he was heaven sent on a mission to save the galaxy.

Are we paying attention? Are we enjoying the show? (I am ) I can’t stop smiling this morning, never had I dreamed that the Wave rolling in would be so frikken funny.

A: Pay attention to last final messages. Things are really heating up. There are certifiable, insane persons in positions of power. Goodbye.

 

[Ellipse]

Tech sector in Israel is suffering.

War in Iran: The Israeli Tech Sector is Resisting… But for How Long?

8 April 2026 - Four weeks after the start of Operation Roaring Lion, the Israeli tech ecosystem is still standing, but it is showing signs of worrying fatigue.

The Israeli technological sector has always cultivated a form of the art of survival. Startups founded in bomb shelters, deals signed from military bases, Zoom pitches between two alerts: the imagery is plentiful. Operation Roaring Lion, launched in late February 2026, made no exception.

One month after its outbreak, high-tech companies are still standing, but a survey published in late March by the Israel Innovation Authority * among 637 industry executives paints a more nuanced picture. Behind the facade of resilience, fractures are accumulating: absent employees, clogged supply chains, investors who are hesitating, and for a growing minority of companies, a question that is beginning to arise: should we leave?

The war is also being fought in the offices​

The use of short-time work (furloughs) remains marginal. That is not where the real damage lies. The true problem is that teams are crumbling in silence: between reservists called to the front lines, parents deprived of childcare facilities for their children, and employees forced to reduce their activity for security reasons, nearly half of companies find themselves managing workforces amputated by a quarter or more.

The work gets done, but at the cost of a generalized lengthening of deadlines and organizational stress that the figures capture only imperfectly.

Fundraising in suspense​

Financing—the lifeblood of any technological ecosystem—is also under pressure. International investors are reluctant to cross the Atlantic or sign checks in a context of uncertainty. Conferences are canceled, meetings postponed, and for a non-negligible number of companies, processes have been purely interrupted. Startups in the North and South of the country, geographically the most exposed, are paying an even harder price.

The temptation to leave​

This is perhaps the strongest signal from this survey: nearly one-third of the companies surveyed have considered relocating all or part of their activities outside of Israel. This proportion is rising even further among those who fear for their short-term survival. The Israeli tech sector has largely prospered thanks to its international connections, but if the question of territorial anchoring begins to be raised seriously, it opens an entirely different conversation.

The Innovation Authority itself recognizes this: after demonstrating a remarkable capacity to bounce back following previous episodes, the sector is approaching this new period of prolonged conflict with less maneuvering room. Resilience has its limits, and some companies are beginning to reach them.

Source

 

[Macrocosm]

Don is probably seeking a second career in deadpan comedy.

 

[Meliade]

We went from "we don't care about the strait" and the not so well executed "rescue operation" that might be congruent with other non-revealed objectives to "we care about the strait so you better F***** open it !" and all thoses boastful and somewhate desperate statements and threats to conclude a precipitate and messy ceasefire with the Iranians.

I think that something didn't went as smoothly as they anticipated it to go the last few days and they are changing strategy accordingly.
The ceasefire just being a mean to gain some time to put into place and organise the next wave of operations and a public display of the American autorithy.
But talks only took place for 1 day. I initially thought that the Americans would drag thoses for much longer. Maybe the Iranian delegation didn't want to support the BS longer than diplomatically needed and wraped up the exchanges quickly.

And now, a naval blockade of the strait is announced.
Bluff or not ? If not, I suppose that this will not be enforced by close range vessels, putting them at risk from iranian missiles. So how ? Threatening to blast the tankers that don't comply with ballistic missiles or whatever aerial means they have at diposition ? Or exerting some kind of pressure in international waters ?

The naval blockade is a poorly thought out plan, but it doesn't necessarily require US ships to be any nearer the Strait of Hormuz itself. They can intercept tankers elsewhere on their route, in international waters, in a similar way to what they have already been doing but on a larger scale. Some would argue that was always the goal, with disruption of shipping heading to China the main objective.

Maybe not so well thought but i think far from being the dumbest thing they did in this war. They are using their status as the biggest global hegemon, in this case throught the power of their navy, to threaten the other nations into compliance.
They could as you mentioned increase their control over international waters as hinted buy Trump himself : "I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran."
They don't need to be positionned everywhere, but select a few significant corridors to cause some kind of disruption.
Not that it benefits any population whatsoever...

I can see some countries being forced to comply but what about China ? They primarly seek resolve through diplomacy but what will they do if this dosen't work and their nationals interests are at risk ? Escorts ? Direct confrontation ?
What will do Iran ? There is already almost no vessels apart from theirs and a few selected one that pass thought the strait. They don't have leverage from this angle already.
Further strike American interests in the neighboring countries ?
For Russia, it's probably "business as usuall". Although they are actually dealing with ukrainian strikes on petrochemicals plants.

It's so difficult to predict something in the midst of all this mess. I would say that bluff in mainly part of the story but i would not discard "foul plays"/Oopsies! from the American side to gauge the reaction of other countries and further adjust their plan... if there is any at all !

 

[seek10]

Except the Russian navy has already started escorting some of its "shadow fleet" tankers, and that seems to make sure they are left alone. So does we expect that China wouldn't do the same if necessary. This is all just the usual attempted intimidation tactics by Trump, "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing".

Don’t interfere: China fires warning shot at US over Hormuz blockade

Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun's warning coincided with the start of the US naval blockade on Monday.

www.indiatoday.in

A senior Chinese official has warned the United States against imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and cautioned it not to interfere in China’s bilateral relations with Iran. Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun's warning coincided with the start of the US naval blockade at 7:30 pm IST on Monday.

"We have trade and energy agreements with Iran; we expect others not to interfere in our affairs," Jun said, adding that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for China.

...
The US has warned of "complications" if Beijing gets involved with Iran in a way that is counter to US interests.

Trump has also threatened Beijing with 50 per cent tariffs if it supplies weapons to Tehran. An intelligence assessment claimed that Beijing could be preparing shipments of air defence systems to Iran.

However, China has dismissed such reports as "groundless smears and malicious associations."

Iran envoy says Indian ships didn't have to pay Hormuz toll: Ask your government

Iran’s ambassador to India, Mohammad Fathali, said Indian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz have not paid any tolls, highlighting strong ties between New Delhi and Tehran amid escalating regional tensions.

www.indiatoday.in

Iran on Monday rejected claims that Indian vessels paid tolls to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that Tehran has not charged New Delhi and pointing to “good relations” between the two countries amid rising regional tensions.

“You can ask the Indian government if we have charged anything up to now,” Fathali said at a media briefing at the Iranian embassy in New Delhi, dismissing suggestions that India paid for safe passage through the strategic waterway.

India has repeatedly denied reports that it paid tolls to secure the exit of nine liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers after Iran effectively restricted transit following the outbreak of the Iran war. According to Indian officials, around 15 India-flagged vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.

 

[Puma]

Here is my interpretation of the image of Yisus Trump:

it's not Jesus but The Magician

I posted it in the Predictions and Prophecies thread because it seemed more appropriate there

 

[Ricardo]

What could possibly go wrong?.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043780904645247268