Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

[T.C.]

I put it here as this is oil related. Can something be really off? Refineries have certainly frequent problems. Are those problems out of statistics?

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Source?

 

[Fluffy]

I put it here as this is oil related. Can something be really off? Refineries have certainly frequent problems. Are those problems out of statistics?

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Watched an interesting video claiming that the Aussie refining was a target of DEWs. The guy explains that there was suspicious drone flight activity on the night of the fire. Also claims that the same drone was used to start the Maui fires, not a weaponised drone itself, but one that communicates with other systems that are weaponised.

A question for the C’s?
Seems wayyyyyyyyyyy to coincidental that there are so many refineries going up in flames amid an oil crisis.

AI sez

An average year typically sees around 10 major oil refinery fires or explosions globally that cause severe damage, supply disruptions, or complete facility shutdowns.

However, looking at broader data that includes smaller, localized blazes, mechanical leaks, or incidents contained by on-site fire crews, experts note that over 100 refinery fires occur worldwide in a standard year.

10 in 21 days might not be too weird of a coincidence (except that it is) yet when we are looking at places like Australia who only have/d two refineries (the other 6 been shut down over the past 2 decades) the chances of one of them being completely destroyed at such a critical time in global oil instability smells of such stinky fish that anyone who can’t smell it must be dead or extremely high with their head in the clouds.

 

[Macrocosm]

As expected the US are interdicting ships in the Gulf of Oman but don't have the resources there to enforce a true blockade. That's according to these tanker tracking accounts:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2046890264468365534

Transit or no transit - that’s the question | Vortexa

The US Naval Blockade starting April 13 2026 has increased the challenge for vessels to enter or leave the Middle East Gulf via the Straits of Hormuz

www.vortexa.com

This is assuming the US Navy is only blockading ships in the Gulf of Oman and The Arabian Sea.

Exclusive: US intercepts three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters, sources say

Of course, widening the circle would make the task harder.

 

[Lucelle]

Claude Summary: "World War Trump" — Lecture Transcript by Prof. Jiang

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00:00:00 — Ceasefire & Opening Context
A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is nearing its end. Negotiations are taking place in Oman. Prof. Jiang argues this war is not simply Trump's personal decision, but part of a larger US imperial strategy to maintain global dominance.

00:01:21 — Global Oil Refinery Fires
Key Point: Over 50 oil refineries worldwide have been set on fire in the past 45 days — in Russia, Myanmar, Romania, India, and Australia among others. Prof. Jiang notes the cause is unknown but raises the question of who benefits, applying the framework of means, motive, and opportunity. He concludes the most likely candidates are the US or Russia, or possibly both.

00:03:15 — US Ship Seizure in International Waters
Key Point: The US boarded an Iranian cargo ship returning from China, firing at its engine before special forces took over. The US suspected the ship carried fuel and components for ballistic missiles. Prof. Jiang notes the contradiction: US officials previously called Iranian threats to ships "piracy and terrorism," yet defended their own seizure of ships as legitimate enforcement of the oil blockade.

00:05:04 — The Oil Blockade Continues
The US has seized two additional oil tankers overnight as part of an ongoing oil quarantine. Secretary Rubio is cited as stating this leverage will continue.

00:05:48 — Senator Rick Scott on the War
Senator Rick Scott, in a recorded interview, states that even if the Iran war does not go well for the US, blocking oil to China and destroying its economy would be worthwhile. Prof. Jiang presents this as a direct, on-record statement revealing the broader strategic goal of the war.

00:07:16 — Official Justification for the War
Key Point: White House spokesperson Karen Leavitt stated on record that Trump launched "Operation Epic Fury" based on a belief that Iran would strike US targets within 7 days — later revised to 3 days. When pressed for evidence, she described it as "a feeling the president had based on facts." Trump has also given conflicting public statements — at times saying the war is going well and a ceasefire is near, and at other times threatening to resume bombing.

00:09:36 — Economic Impact of the War
Prof. Jiang cites the following price increases since the war began: sulfur +57%, jet fuel +52%, with diesel, gasoline, and fertilizers also rising sharply. He notes sulfur is critical for both fertilizer and microchip manufacturing.

00:13:35 — US Moving Toward a War Economy
Key Point: Prof. Jiang outlines the following developments:

• The Pentagon is in talks with General Motors and Ford to manufacture munitions, drones, and military equipment
• Trump announced the Defense Production Act, allowing the government to subsidize private corporations in weapons manufacturing
• Starting December, Americans aged 18–26 will be automatically registered for the draft
• The Pentagon budget is currently $1 trillion, set to rise to $1.5 trillion next year
• More veterans are being asked to serve longer

00:15:04 — Congressional Vote on War Powers
Key Point: A congressional vote was held on whether to restrict Trump's war powers. Four Republicans did not vote, and one Republican voted yes. This would have resulted in a 214–213 majority in favor of restricting Trump. However, one Democrat switched their vote to no, making the final result 214–213 against the restriction. Prof. Jiang argues this outcome was deliberately engineered, and that both parties effectively support the war.

00:17:02 — The US National Defense Strategy (January 2026)
Prof. Jiang reads directly from the National Defense Strategy document released in January 2026. The document outlines four core priorities:

1. Defend the homeland and protect interests in the Western Hemisphere
2. Deter China in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not confrontation
3. Increase burden-sharing with allies and partners
4. Rebuild the US defense industrial base

Prof. Jiang highlights that the document explicitly criticizes past "nation-building" and "rules-based international order" approaches, and calls for restoring a "warrior ethos" with fewer constraints on how wars are fought.

00:25:11 — Homeland Security & ICE
Key Point: Prof. Jiang points to ICE's budget, which has sharply increased to $90 billion. He argues that ICE's true function is not solely immigration enforcement, but normalizing the presence of armed federal forces in American cities — drawing a parallel to the lesson the US drew from the Vietnam War, where domestic protest contributed to the war's failure.

00:27:30 — Containing China: The First Island Chain & Strait of Malacca
Prof. Jiang explains that the US strategy involves:

• Building a military presence along the first island chain (Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines)
• Cooperating with Indonesia to gain influence over the Strait of Malacca, through which China receives approximately 80% of its energy
• Encouraging Japan to rearm and sign defense agreements with Australia and other nations
• Exerting control over the Panama Canal and pursuing the acquisition of Greenland to block Arctic access for Russia and China
• Signing a cooperation deal with Morocco to control the Strait of Gibraltar

00:38:06 — Why Iran Is the Target
Key Point: Prof. Jiang explains that Iran sits at the geographic center of both Russia's North-South Corridor and China's Belt and Road Initiative. He argues that as long as Iran is stable, Russia and China can trade freely with the world. Keeping Iran in a state of war disrupts both trade routes simultaneously, without the US needing to formally defeat Iran.

00:43:09 — The Broader Strategy: A Modern Marshall Plan
Prof. Jiang describes the overarching US vision as a "Fortress Western Hemisphere" — a self-sufficient bloc with abundant resources that sells energy, weapons, and US-dollar-denominated financing to a world kept in perpetual conflict. He draws a direct parallel to the post-WWII Marshall Plan, where the US lent money to war-damaged Europe to buy American products.

00:44:39 — Three Requirements for the Strategy to Succeed
Prof. Jiang identifies three conditions the US needs:

1. A national draft — to supply soldiers for maintaining control over global choke points
2. Continuity of government — Trump pursuing a third term, as a change in administration could derail the plan
3. An AI surveillance state — referencing Operation Stargate, a federal plan to invest $500 billion in data centers across the US, which Prof. Jiang connects to mass digital monitoring of the population

00:49:05 — Why the Strategy Will Fail
Key Point: Prof. Jiang argues the plan will ultimately backfire for three reasons rooted in historical patterns of imperial decline:

• Nationalism — nations being controlled will eventually resist
• Corruption — a significant portion of the defense budget will be misappropriated
• Division — domestic political polarization, and the possibility of civil unrest or civil conflict, will weaken the effort from within

00:53:53 — Long-Term Prediction
Prof. Jiang's conclusion is that America will appear to make gains in the short term but will ultimately be forced to withdraw to the Western Hemisphere. He states the US does not need to win in Iran — it only needs Iran in a state of ongoing chaos. He predicts Russia will respond by developing its own naval capacity to contest American control of choke points, and by targeting energy infrastructure in a similar way. He expects most of the world to align with Russia over time as a counterbalance to US power.

Bottom line thesis:
Prof. Jiang's central argument is that the US-Iran war is a component of a deliberate long-term strategy to control global trade choke points, cut off China's energy supply, and sustain American imperial dominance by keeping rival regions in perpetual conflict. He believes the strategy is historically familiar and, like past imperial overreach, will ultimately accelerate American decline.

 

[Ben]

The giant fly in Iran's ointment?

And below, Hendry lays out why Iran is cornered...



With this week's lack of talks (and the US ceasefire/blockade still in play now), the question is how long does Iran have before it folds from pain, or its ideological inability to come to the Infidels' table makes it a shadow of its former self.

The answer is Iran has very limited time left - according to JPMorgan's latest estimates:



Hendry concludes:



And global capital markets have already moved to price that eventuality in.

'Time Is Running Out For Iran': The Market Is Calling 'Bullshit' On Mainstream's Narrative, Hugh Hendry Explains...<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

We'll see, but there are two major problems with this calculation. The first, as has already been pointed out, is that the blockade of Iranian oil exports is clearly nowhere near 100% effective at this point in time. There's some debate as to exactly how many ships have reached their destinations, been interdicted, or turned back.

The other assumption is that the markets have actually priced in the extended disruption that is already huge, and possibly a long term issue. Many argue that markets are in fact living in dreamland. Oil prices are both heavily manipulated and operating on some kind of assumption that a deal will have to be reached soon. We're approaching the two months point already.

Iran is counting on the probability of reality eventually hitting the markets, which could be quite soon and quite dramatic. They have obviously calculated that they can absorb the economic damage for longer than the global economy. As the C's said, though, it's more likely to be 'bad all the way around'.