Civil War in Ukraine: Western Empire vs Russia

[SeekinTruth]

There was quite a good Situation Report by one of Saker's Research Assistants I read today about Ukraine and Russia.

http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-04-08-2015-by-scott/

 

[sitting]

An update on the currency war--between Empire versus Russia.

This morning it's 52 Rubles to the Dollar. This is a BIG deal to those that play the game, and may even be signalling a give-up on the part of Empire, at least for this phase of the monetary conflict.

The Ruble has been the best performing currency in 2015, as published even by such MSM media as Bloomberg. If the Ruble can withstand such attacks without really bad long-term problems, imagine if the manipulators/speculators are unable to continue the attacks. Also, it's going to be interesting to see what happens to the oil and gas prices - so many variables going in different directions.

I felt early on, the oil weapon was the the prime engine behind the currency weapon. The tailwind behind the attack on the Ruble, hoping thus to destabilize Russian society. But the Russians did not panic--and took effective counter-measures. Plus their internal finances were relatively sound, unlike those of the attacking countries. Putin did almost everything right.

Saudi Arabia is the key player wielding this oil weapon. The fact they're now heavily engaged in Yemen means they're fearful. And I suspect the Russians have initiated their response ... though via proxies. And not yet on Saudi soil. But I think it's coming. The likely outcome is higher oil prices, as the oil weapon itself gets neutralized.

But this is total speculation on my part and nothing more. Then there's the cosmic "incoming" to consider. The affairs of men--and mice--may turn out minuscule in the grand scheme of things.

 

[axj]

As long as nothing dramatic happens to disrupt the oil shipping, the price of oil will probably stay down for a while. The only other thing that could bring it up is a concerted effort on the part of the major oil producing nations, but that seems unlikely in the near future - especially considering the rivalry between the US and Saudi Arabia on the one side and Russia and Iran on the other.

 

[Search]

Martial law bill passed in first reading by Verkhovna Rada

The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada has passed the bill on the legal regime of martial law submitted by President Petro Poroshenko in the first reading.

Bill No. 2541 gained 258 votes on Thursday, an Interfax correspondent reports.

The bill defines the legal regime of martial law, the procedure for its enforcement and cancellation, the legal basis of activities of state power bodies, military commands, local self-government bodies, enterprises and organizations under martial law, and guarantees of civil and human rights and lawful interests and rights of legal entities.

The legislative initiative defines measures the military command may take together with military administrations to instate the martial law regime.

For instance, they have the right to tighten security of strategic economic and social facilities and regulate the regime of their operation, to compel able-bodied citizens to do community service, to use assets and human resources of enterprises and organizations of any form of property for defense needs, to alienate private or communal property, and to seize assets of state-run enterprises for state needs.

In addition, the military command and the military administrations can enforce a curfew and apply internment (forced relocation) of citizens of other countries threatening to attack or involved in an aggression against Ukraine.

They are also permitted to limit freedom of movement, to check identification and, if necessary, search office and residential premises, luggage and cargo, prohibit public events, and propose a ban on the activity of political parties and public movements which aims to damage Ukrainian independence, security and constitutional system.

In the case of martial law, military command and administration can regulate the activity of enterprises, telecommunication systems, print shops and publishing houses, ban the selling of armaments, strong chemicals and alcoholic beverages, establish a special regime of the production and distribution of narcotic-containing medicines, seize firearms, ammunition and cold steel from civilians, and compel individuals and legal entities to accommodate servicemen on their premises.

Here is the same in Russian. _https://news.mail.ru/inworld/ukraine/politics/21667836/
But in Russian there are some extra details.
According to the bill the authority of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) in case of imposition of martial law in Ukraine continues to re-election of the new parliament after the cancelling of martial law.
Also it offered to impose safeguards activities of the President and Verkhovna Rada, etc.


As far as I understand if they impose the Martial law, according to the law, from this day, people will not be able to re-elect the government and president. And the West will help them with this.
I guess they are planning to do something soon and continuing changing the law to their needs. Also, I think because of the conflict between Poroshenko and Kolomoyskiy, Poroshenko is trying to gain more power.

 

[sitting]

As long as nothing dramatic happens to disrupt the oil shipping, the price of oil will probably stay down for a while. The only other thing that could bring it up is a concerted effort on the part of the major oil producing nations, but that seems unlikely in the near future - especially considering the rivalry between the US and Saudi Arabia on the one side and Russia and Iran on the other.

Hello axj,

Commodity prices are notoriously difficult to predict.

In the case of crude however, there was one primary geopolitical reason for its drop. Get Russia!

And I believe there's one primary geopolitical reason for its rebound. Pay back--against the Saudi's. You see this already in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's southern border.

In trade parlance, Oil has "double bottomed" ... Dollar-Ruble has "double topped." Although these patterns are not 100% accurate always, it's a sign. Another sign--is simply the strengthening ruble itself, the currency market leading the oil market.

But we mustn't forget the cosmic "incoming". That one can scramble everything. If money will soon be worthless, the price of crude is then rather irrelevant.

PS Dollar-Ruble presently near the psychologically important zone of 50. Few would have predicted this just 2 short months ago.

 

[SeekinTruth]

Couple of good articles I read this morning.

Carried on Saker from FortRus blog translation:
http://thesaker.is/interview-of-a-senior-russian-foreign-intelligence-analyst/

And another Situation Report by another of Saker's Research Assistants:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-april-9th-2015-by-duff/

 

[sitting]

Couple of good articles I read this morning.

Carried on Saker from FortRus blog translation:
http://thesaker.is/interview-of-a-senior-russian-foreign-intelligence-analyst/

And another Situation Report by another of Saker's Research Assistants:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-april-9th-2015-by-duff/

Hi SeekinTruth,

Both good reads, Thanks for the link. :)

 

[axj]

As long as nothing dramatic happens to disrupt the oil shipping, the price of oil will probably stay down for a while. The only other thing that could bring it up is a concerted effort on the part of the major oil producing nations, but that seems unlikely in the near future - especially considering the rivalry between the US and Saudi Arabia on the one side and Russia and Iran on the other.

Hello axj,

Commodity prices are notoriously difficult to predict.

In the case of crude however, there was one primary geopolitical reason for its drop. Get Russia!

In trade parlance, Oil has "double bottomed" ... Dollar-Ruble has "double topped." Although these patterns are not 100% accurate always, it's a sign. Another sign--is simply the strengthening ruble itself, the currency market leading the oil market.

There are a lot of factors pointing to low oil prices:
- The economic warfare against Russia has not succeeded so far, so the geopolitical motivation remains.
- The world economy is close to a recession which means less demand for oil (particularly from China).
- The storage capacity of the US and other countries will be full within the next month or two.
- The lifting of sanctions on Iran means that another major oil producer will be able to freely export oil.
- None of the oil producers want to limit their oil production.

And I believe there's one primary geopolitical reason for its rebound. Pay back--against the Saudi's. You see this already in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's southern border.

I'm not sure what you mean by that. From what I understand, Saudi Arabia is fighting against groups in Yemen which have close ties to Iran.

 

[sitting]

There are a lot of factors pointing to low oil prices:
- The economic warfare against Russia has not succeeded so far, so the geopolitical motivation remains.
- The world economy is close to a recession which means less demand for oil (particularly from China).
- The storage capacity of the US and other countries will be full within the next month or two.
- The lifting of sanctions on Iran means that another major oil producer will be able to freely export oil.
- None of the oil producers want to limit their oil production.

And I believe there's one primary geopolitical reason for its rebound. Pay back--against the Saudi's. You see this already in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's southern border.

I'm not sure what you mean by that. From what I understand, Saudi Arabia is fighting against groups in Yemen which have close ties to Iran.

Hi axj,

My apologies for not being more clear.

The Saudi's had declared de-facto war on the Russians by flooding the oil market--driving prices down. From over $100/barrel to a low point of under $50. The Russians (Putin) gave fair warning, and I believe now has acted--through proxies. Not yet on Saudi soil but right next door. With Iran the proxy enforcer. The response is in motion.

The Saudi's have gotten the message. And are rightfully afraid. They started bombing. They may also be having second thoughts about their oil strategy. But I think it's too late. The train has left the station.

Once this massive artificial and willful flooding of the oil market stops, you may be surprised at how fast prices can rise. I think that's what's coming down the line. The currency market is already hinting at this.

But a word of caution. Price forecasting is always a treacherous game, so please take all this with a grain of salt.
Then there's the cosmic "incoming" thingy.

 

[axj]

Thank you for the clarification. Is there any information that confirms that Russia is somehow involved in Yemen through Iran? I haven't seen anything like it, though of course, it makes a lot of sense.

Saudi Arabia does seem less stable now and if the House of Saud should fall, then indeed all bets are off - not just regarding the oil price but also the whole petro-dollar system where Saudi Arabia is at its heart.

 

[Jtucker]

Hi Sitting,

I've studied the situation in Yemen on and off for the past few years. IMO, I don't think the Shia Houthis take orders from the Iranian government. They may have received financial and materiel support from Iranian back channels in the past, but a recent report out of Yemen highlights that all sides are using captured and gifted American weapons. Iran has no access to American weapons, so they clearly aren't arming the main Houthi group.

_http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/11/middleeast/yemen-unrest/

Although I think the Oil/U.S. dollar hegemony game is a big part of this conflict, from what I've read about Russian foreign policy and how it works (check out the many articles by The Saker), it would seem unlikely that Russia would trigger a war with the Saudis through a minor proxy like the Houthis. In reading the top strategists in Russian foreign policy, war is not a tool they would use in this manner.

I think if you take a closer look at the history of Yemen and the general plight of Shia minorities in Gulf States (Bahrain, Yemen, UAE), you'll find that most of these uprisings are the results of many generations of oppression and marginalization by Saudi financed (through U.S. petrodollars) Sunni Wahhabism. Saudi Arabia's bombing of Yemen is simply a reaction to intelligence they've received that the Houthis have consolidated their power in some way that the Saudi's perceive as a threat their regional domination. The Saudi's may be seeing Yemen as part of the old U.S. "domino theory". If Yemen falls to Shia's then Bahrain is next - then the Shia axis allied with Iran gains influence at the expense of the Saudi led Gulf State consortium.

This "Arab Spring" of indigenous self-determination vs. U.S./NATO global domination obviously involves Russia as its main target, but I think the regional repressions are being fought by legitimate uprisings without any direct influence from Tehran or Moscow.

The United States bizarre reaction to not pull out their citizens trapped in Yemen, is baffling. A failed state such as Somalia somehow can get their citizens out, but the U.S. can't move a single vessel from the massive fleet they have in the Gulf of Aden/Persian Gulf to pull out a couple of hundred people? They claim it's not safe? I'm sure when the Houthis see a billion dollar U.S. destroyer loaded with missiles pull up, they're not going to start firing at it with small arms. It's almost as if the U.S. wants Saudi Arabia to prove it can police the region on its own and the few hundred Americans there might be better suited as martyrs for the red white a blue.

 

[thorbiorn]

This weekend is the time for the Orthodox Easter 2015 and congratualtions to those who celebrate this festival. At the same time it seems that in the Donbass area, Kiev forces apparently have renewed the resolve to create hell on Earth. This is what I found on Fort Russ:

April 9, 2015
Translated by Kristina Rus
Based on reports from Rusvesna

Ex-Minister of Defence of DPR Igor Strelkov:

"In general, we can say that the ceasefire is over - the entire front is under fire, including artillery. Shock troops of the enemy moved to the forefront."

[....]

Then I looked for other sources like South Front:

http://<iframe width="640" height="...ed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

South Front notes that the recent surge in the activity of the Kiev forces, coincides with the NATO rapid intervention force exercise in the Chech Republic.

The South Front news summaries for the last few days read:

10.04.2015 Ukraine Crisis News

Ukraine’s armed forces have started massive battle-tank shelling of Donetsk, Gorlovka and Dokuchaevsk. The positions of Donetsk People’s Republic militia along the whole frontline are under shelling. Furthermore, serious clashes are ongoing in the settlement of Shirokino near Mariupol. [...]

09.04.2015 Ukraine Crisis News

Kiev battalions “Donbass” and “Azov” blatantly violated the ceasefire yesterday with an attack against Shirokino, near Mariupol. Pro-Kiev militants used targeted artillery shelling to destroy billeting housing fighters of the Donetsk People’s Republic. This was reported by the Ukrainian news agency 0629.com.ua [...]

08.04.2015 Ukraine Crisis News

OSCE observers report Ukrainian forces are moving heavy weaponry to the buffer zone in eastern Ukraine. The report says that on 6 April, observers witnessed “four newly deployed 100mm anti-tank guns with crew and four anti-personnel carriers loaded with ammunition boxes” near Mirnaya Dolina, 67km

In the past there has been an idea that Kiev/ NATO would wait for Spring/April to renew the battle. Is one to conclude that Natos version of Spring has come?

 

[Jtucker]

This is disturbing news for the Donbass people regarding a new offensive by the UAF. I was surprised when I saw this item on The Saker yesterday that not a single major North American news site had mentioned it. The only news items that came up this week regarding Ukraine were:

NPR soldiers executed Ukrainian prisoners of war. Which was later refuted on Russian news media.

A couple of strange apologist articles that went out of their way to paint Yarosh as a "strong nationalist" rather than the Neo-Nazi his background suggests.

Also the story about how Poroshenko met with Putin and asked him why he didn't take the Donbass with an alleged response that Putin claimed he didn't want the Donbass and if Poroshenko didn't want it, then he should allow its independence. Then a flurry of retractions and denials that Poroshenko never said that. Was this Poroshenko's attempt at drawing Russia in to save his own skin from a prolonged civil war?

I'm wondering how long it will be before shelling and artillery bombardments will make it into Western Media? You would think it would be a few days, but maybe not? America is going to obsessed with its presidential run announcements, The UK is attacking one of its political leaders for some bizarre staements he made and Canada has an oil spill in a major city and a high profile political trial going on. I would guess only Germany will have to address it as Merkel was a key broker in the Minsk Accords that are now completely broken. What will the spin be as to the reason for the renewed conflict? Or will the UAF's aggression be completely ignored?

 

[Beau]

Saudi Arabia's bombing of Yemen is simply a reaction to intelligence they've received that the Houthis have consolidated their power in some way that the Saudi's perceive as a threat their regional domination. The Saudi's may be seeing Yemen as part of the old U.S. "domino theory".

Actually, the bombing of Yemen is a reaction to the U.S.-installed puppet in Yemen being exiled to Saudi Arabia. The U.S. doesn't want to lose Yemen as a vassal state, so it does what it does everywhere else - it brings in bombs and terrorizes the populace until they are longer disenchanted, mainly because they are starving and homeless. Saudi Arabia, another U.S. puppet state, is merely the face of the attack, but it is first and foremost a U.S. operation run by U.S. military command. The Houthis haven't consolidated power, but a large majority of the population has rallied behind them. This is because most of the people of Yemen have held a deep dislike for the American-backed and now exiled president Mansour Hadi for quite a long time, and now that the U.S./Saudis have declared open war on Houthis, many Yemenis are choosing the side of the Houthis.

Finian Cunningham wrote excellent analysis on the situation in Yemen, and he says:

Saudi Arabia and its American and Arab allies claim that the Shia Houthis are backed by Shia Iran. Western news media routinely prefix reference to the Houthis with the «Iranian-backed» epithet. This claim is also asserted by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish president Recep Tayyep Erdogan. However, there is no evidence to support this speculation. And both Iran and the Houthis have strongly denied any military connection.

Besides, the Houthis are not the only section of Yemen's population that have risen up to overthrow the erstwhile Saudi and American-backed president Mansour Hadi. While the Saudis and their allies would like to portray the Yemeni upheaval as a narrow sectarian cause led by Shia Houthis, the reality is that the protests against Hadi galvanised a broad swathe of the Yemeni working class. Those protests culminated in the take-over of government institutions earlier this year and the discredited president fleeing the country to seek sanctuary in Saudi Arabia two weeks ago. Saudi Arabia, the US and other members of the bombing coalition claim that they are acting in response to requests from the «legitimate government of Yemen». But Hadi was kicked out because he reneged for three years on promised transition to democracy, as demanded by the Yemeni population.

In truth, the Yemeni struggle is not one of Shia versus Sunni, or Iran versus Saudi Arabia. Rather it is one of a pro-democracy movement versus the US-Saudi old order of a repressive regime that has quashed the aspirations of the Yemeni people for decades.

So it's not about dominos or consolidation of power by Houthis at all. It's simply the same thing we've been seeing over and over again. The U.S. Empire crushing any attempt by a large group of people to rebel against and attempt to create a tiny bit of sovereignty far away from the U.S. borders. Unfortunately, the psychopathic leadership in the U.S. has an unquenchable thirst for power, greed, and control and no matter where in the world they have that, they refuse to give it up.

 

[Voyageur]

Rather depressingly, Garry Kasparov is making counter moves on his rounds in Canadian news, giving prime-time interviews on CBC today following on the heels of the Toronto Symphonies Orchestra's (TSO's) pitiful dumping of Ukraine's virtuoso pianist, Valentina Lisitsa for speaking the truth. As for Kasporov, he seems to have spent too much time staring at the chess board developing his King's Gambit opening move to ever consider objective reality; on the other hand, he was a "good" friend of Nemtsov and has bones to pick.

I mentioned depressing, cause CBC's editorial staff could have the pick of many bright people, yet not today or tomorrow it seems. Instead, they piped in Kasparov who fits in well with their specious narrative attacks on Putin. Kasparov did his very best to fulfill that role and vilify.

video interview here _http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/ID/2663439107/

Chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov doesn't mince words when it comes to criticizing his country's president, Vladimir Putin

As an aside, Kasparov is set to release a new book ‘Winter is Coming: Why Vladimir Putin and the Enemies of the Free World Must Be Stopped’. It is being produced by The Perseus Books Group (CEO David Steinberger), who charmed bookshelves by authors' John Kerry and George Soros. I'm not sure if they were placed in the literary section called Pack of Lies.

_http://www.kasparov.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Perseus-Announces-Kasparov-Book.pdf


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