As I brought up in another thread recently, Medvedev gave a pretty interesting speech recently that sounds like a historic declaration of what Russia could and might likely will do if the West doesn't stop. I will summarize those statements here in this thread as well later. Apart from that, I would first like to focus more on Dmitry Medvedev himself, and his part in the developments in Russia and the world, and more specifically, his relationship to Putin.
Let's start with the idea that Medvedev was chosen by Putin, quite early on, as his successor, and Putin basically trained him to be able to follow up in his footsteps:
Could it be that Medvedev's very clear, frank and undiplomatic statements (on X and Telegram and in speeches and interviews) are pretty much exactly what Putin really thinks and/or plans but can't say at the moment in his position as president? I think that is very likely:
From what I have seen so far, Medvedev way of behaving and speaking is quite similar to Putin. Even down to specific phrases he uses, like "in the position I'm currently in, I'm freer or less free to talk openly". It also seems to me that Medvedev is quite as well-informed and diverse in terms of knowledge as Putin himself. Listen to Medvedev speak, and you will find many similarities, down to knowing even the smallest details about any given topic within Russia itself and the outside world. In short, the similarities are quite uncanny and very interesting, in a positive way!
Now, if you are as curious as I am, you might want to closely compare Dmitry Medvedev personal history to that of Vladimir Putin on Wikipedia. I know Wikipedia isn't the best source (no kidding!) but in both cases what they write about both gentleman's history/career (especially in early life and their early political careers) seems to be quite accurate without much propaganda spin (as of yet!).
Notice that both were born in Saint Petersburg (Leningrad) and grew up there and went to the same university. It seems like they first got to know each other as early as 1990. They might have known each other even before that point, but that is pure speculation on my part. I don't know. Both have been educated/taught by Anatoly Sobchak, who was the professor of Putin and later Medvedev at the University of Saint Petersburg. Quote: "Putin was influential in Sobchak's career in Saint Petersburg, and Sobchak was influential in Putin's career in Moscow." Similar to Medvedev, who, quote: "joined Sobchak's team of democrats in 1988 and served as the de facto head of Sobchak's successful campaign for a seat in the new Soviet parliament, the Congress of People's Deputies of the USSR." And, quote: "In 1990, Anatoly Sobchak returned from Moscow to become chairman of the Leningrad City Council. Sobchak hired Medvedev who had previously headed his election campaign. One of Sobchak's former students, Vladimir Putin, became an adviser. The next summer, Sobchak was elected Mayor of the city, and Medvedev became a consultant to City Hall's Committee for Foreign Affairs. It was headed by Putin." Among other similarities, both also studied law in university.
Anyway, let's start to focus on Medvedev's recent statements.
It seems to me that Medvedev's recent speech is a very interesting and potentially historic one! Unfortunately, I wasn't able to find a good and full translation into English. The only full video translation I could find is this one:
It seems like Medvedev was pretty direct and exposed western politicians as ridiculous and spinless clowns, with supporting pictures and video material! Hilarious and ohh so true.
One of the main points that Medvedev made (judged by the rather bad simultaneous translation) seems to be that Russia could move into other countries that are in their strategic sphere of influence by force, not in order to steal/take the land/resources of the given countries, but in order to secure/enforce Russian friendly governments! In a similar way that the Roman Empire and Russia and others did it in the past. It seems to be a clear warning to western and/or purely western aligned countries in the strategic sphere of Russia, that if the west continues in that way, that the Russians can and probably would do that.
So, the question is, was what Medvedev said sanctioned by Putin? I think so.
Also, take into account that Medvedev is by all accounts the likely successor of Putin in 6 years. Also, notice how clear and undiplomatic Medvedev is speaking/texting, in a hard ball fashion in the last months/years on X and other platforms.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we are going to see Medvedev playing hard ball as soon as he is replacing Putin. Maybe that even starts before that point. And it all might have been planned in that way for a long time, as one of possible solutions to Russian problems, should the west not stop. It could also be a bluff of some kind.
Natus Videre is certainly not the only wondering about that! I certainly also see that as a likely possibility.
Unfortunately, I still have not found a full, good translation of Medvedev's presentation/statements above. What I found though is a shortened version which seems to have a good translation:
What I found however is at least as interesting... Medvedev gave an extended interview in which he was also very frank, just a day earlier, of which we have a complete and very good video subtitle translation by "Michael Rossi Poli Sci" on YouTube (who I recommend, because he regularly publishes very good translations of speeches and statements from Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov, Zakharova, Shoigu and co):
I highly recommend watching both recent statements of Medvedev and also follow what he has to say on X regularly. Among other things, Medvedev seems to be of the opinion that the negative trend in the west in general, and in Europe and the US in particular, will not change for decades ahead and that Russia will continue to further its current position in the world, unfortunately, or luckily, ever increasingly separate from the west.
Here are some of my speculation for the short and longer term in terms of the developments in Russia:
- Russia might become quite a lot more bold out of necessity
- Putin will head Russia for the coming 6 years, starting in March of this year
- During that time, Putin will increasingly put Medvedev into crucial and publically visible/recognizable positions. Both, in order to train him, and in order for the public to realize his value.
- Putin will prepare the Russian public for Medvedev as his successor, leaving little doubt inRussian minds that Medvedev is his clear recommendation as THE GUY who can best follow up in his footsteps and is the best candidate for furthering Russia's interests. At the end of Putin's era, he will clearly recommend Medvedev as his successor.
- Medvedev will be elected as Putin's successor in 2030, with substantially more votes than any other candidates.
- Putin will be available for Medvedev as his main official and/or unofficial adviser after that (2030 and onwards).
- After 2030 Putin might himself start to become very frank and "undiplomatic", speaking more or less freely. More clear than ever before.
- It is hard if not impossible to follow up in footsteps like Putin's, but I think Medvedev might surprise us all in being able to do so quite well, although maybe a bit less successful/careful than Putin.
- Which means that Medvedev might likely be reelected a number of times after 2030.
- Which means that Russia probably will have a stable/sane/decent leadership at least for the next 20 years or so, assuming that Medvedev might also step down when he will be around 76 years of age.
If the west continues in their crazy ways, one of my wild bets is on one of the following four scenarios (or all), sooner or later:
- The Russians resort to a quick “shock and awe“ campaign with their hypersonic missiles, in such an overwhelming way, that it sends shivers down the spine globally. It will show everyone their utter military superiority and daring guts. Thereby sending the following message to the PTB: “you can’t do anything about it, we are the boss. Your pants are down“. Also, making the use of nukes by the other side impossible/not viable. Possibly involving several countries at once.
- The Russians resort to a very fast “shock and awe“ campaign with their troops by marching into (possibly) several countries all at once, right through into the capitals (with practically zero resistance encountered). In such an overwhelming way that it sends shivers down the spine globally. It will show everyone their utter military superiority and daring guts. Sending the following message to the PTB: “you can’t do anything about it, we are the boss. Your pants are down“. Possibly involving several countries at once.
- Putin and co. might have other aces up their sleeve that nobody suspects. Such as turning down all oil and gas deliveries that go to western countries directly or indirectly. Or something else entirely.
- Or the Russians will try to play it as safe as possible by basically letting the West hang itself, if they wish to do so and possibly hope for more sane politicians after that heavy and probably deadly period of the West hanging themselves (which will probably take decades).
Checkmate!
Let's start with the idea that Medvedev was chosen by Putin, quite early on, as his successor, and Putin basically trained him to be able to follow up in his footsteps:
Could it be that Medvedev's very clear, frank and undiplomatic statements (on X and Telegram and in speeches and interviews) are pretty much exactly what Putin really thinks and/or plans but can't say at the moment in his position as president? I think that is very likely:
From what I have seen so far, Medvedev way of behaving and speaking is quite similar to Putin. Even down to specific phrases he uses, like "in the position I'm currently in, I'm freer or less free to talk openly". It also seems to me that Medvedev is quite as well-informed and diverse in terms of knowledge as Putin himself. Listen to Medvedev speak, and you will find many similarities, down to knowing even the smallest details about any given topic within Russia itself and the outside world. In short, the similarities are quite uncanny and very interesting, in a positive way!
Now, if you are as curious as I am, you might want to closely compare Dmitry Medvedev personal history to that of Vladimir Putin on Wikipedia. I know Wikipedia isn't the best source (no kidding!) but in both cases what they write about both gentleman's history/career (especially in early life and their early political careers) seems to be quite accurate without much propaganda spin (as of yet!).
Notice that both were born in Saint Petersburg (Leningrad) and grew up there and went to the same university. It seems like they first got to know each other as early as 1990. They might have known each other even before that point, but that is pure speculation on my part. I don't know. Both have been educated/taught by Anatoly Sobchak, who was the professor of Putin and later Medvedev at the University of Saint Petersburg. Quote: "Putin was influential in Sobchak's career in Saint Petersburg, and Sobchak was influential in Putin's career in Moscow." Similar to Medvedev, who, quote: "joined Sobchak's team of democrats in 1988 and served as the de facto head of Sobchak's successful campaign for a seat in the new Soviet parliament, the Congress of People's Deputies of the USSR." And, quote: "In 1990, Anatoly Sobchak returned from Moscow to become chairman of the Leningrad City Council. Sobchak hired Medvedev who had previously headed his election campaign. One of Sobchak's former students, Vladimir Putin, became an adviser. The next summer, Sobchak was elected Mayor of the city, and Medvedev became a consultant to City Hall's Committee for Foreign Affairs. It was headed by Putin." Among other similarities, both also studied law in university.
Anyway, let's start to focus on Medvedev's recent statements.
It seems to me that Medvedev's recent speech is a very interesting and potentially historic one! Unfortunately, I wasn't able to find a good and full translation into English. The only full video translation I could find is this one:
It seems like Medvedev was pretty direct and exposed western politicians as ridiculous and spinless clowns, with supporting pictures and video material! Hilarious and ohh so true.
One of the main points that Medvedev made (judged by the rather bad simultaneous translation) seems to be that Russia could move into other countries that are in their strategic sphere of influence by force, not in order to steal/take the land/resources of the given countries, but in order to secure/enforce Russian friendly governments! In a similar way that the Roman Empire and Russia and others did it in the past. It seems to be a clear warning to western and/or purely western aligned countries in the strategic sphere of Russia, that if the west continues in that way, that the Russians can and probably would do that.
So, the question is, was what Medvedev said sanctioned by Putin? I think so.
Also, take into account that Medvedev is by all accounts the likely successor of Putin in 6 years. Also, notice how clear and undiplomatic Medvedev is speaking/texting, in a hard ball fashion in the last months/years on X and other platforms.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we are going to see Medvedev playing hard ball as soon as he is replacing Putin. Maybe that even starts before that point. And it all might have been planned in that way for a long time, as one of possible solutions to Russian problems, should the west not stop. It could also be a bluff of some kind.
Medvedev is Putin's alter ego.
Sometimes I wonder if what Medvedev says is what Putin really thinks but cannot say.
Natus Videre is certainly not the only wondering about that! I certainly also see that as a likely possibility.
Unfortunately, I still have not found a full, good translation of Medvedev's presentation/statements above. What I found though is a shortened version which seems to have a good translation:
What I found however is at least as interesting... Medvedev gave an extended interview in which he was also very frank, just a day earlier, of which we have a complete and very good video subtitle translation by "Michael Rossi Poli Sci" on YouTube (who I recommend, because he regularly publishes very good translations of speeches and statements from Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov, Zakharova, Shoigu and co):
I highly recommend watching both recent statements of Medvedev and also follow what he has to say on X regularly. Among other things, Medvedev seems to be of the opinion that the negative trend in the west in general, and in Europe and the US in particular, will not change for decades ahead and that Russia will continue to further its current position in the world, unfortunately, or luckily, ever increasingly separate from the west.
Here are some of my speculation for the short and longer term in terms of the developments in Russia:
- Russia might become quite a lot more bold out of necessity
- Putin will head Russia for the coming 6 years, starting in March of this year
- During that time, Putin will increasingly put Medvedev into crucial and publically visible/recognizable positions. Both, in order to train him, and in order for the public to realize his value.
- Putin will prepare the Russian public for Medvedev as his successor, leaving little doubt inRussian minds that Medvedev is his clear recommendation as THE GUY who can best follow up in his footsteps and is the best candidate for furthering Russia's interests. At the end of Putin's era, he will clearly recommend Medvedev as his successor.
- Medvedev will be elected as Putin's successor in 2030, with substantially more votes than any other candidates.
- Putin will be available for Medvedev as his main official and/or unofficial adviser after that (2030 and onwards).
- After 2030 Putin might himself start to become very frank and "undiplomatic", speaking more or less freely. More clear than ever before.
- It is hard if not impossible to follow up in footsteps like Putin's, but I think Medvedev might surprise us all in being able to do so quite well, although maybe a bit less successful/careful than Putin.
- Which means that Medvedev might likely be reelected a number of times after 2030.
- Which means that Russia probably will have a stable/sane/decent leadership at least for the next 20 years or so, assuming that Medvedev might also step down when he will be around 76 years of age.
If the west continues in their crazy ways, one of my wild bets is on one of the following four scenarios (or all), sooner or later:
- The Russians resort to a quick “shock and awe“ campaign with their hypersonic missiles, in such an overwhelming way, that it sends shivers down the spine globally. It will show everyone their utter military superiority and daring guts. Thereby sending the following message to the PTB: “you can’t do anything about it, we are the boss. Your pants are down“. Also, making the use of nukes by the other side impossible/not viable. Possibly involving several countries at once.
- The Russians resort to a very fast “shock and awe“ campaign with their troops by marching into (possibly) several countries all at once, right through into the capitals (with practically zero resistance encountered). In such an overwhelming way that it sends shivers down the spine globally. It will show everyone their utter military superiority and daring guts. Sending the following message to the PTB: “you can’t do anything about it, we are the boss. Your pants are down“. Possibly involving several countries at once.
- Putin and co. might have other aces up their sleeve that nobody suspects. Such as turning down all oil and gas deliveries that go to western countries directly or indirectly. Or something else entirely.
- Or the Russians will try to play it as safe as possible by basically letting the West hang itself, if they wish to do so and possibly hope for more sane politicians after that heavy and probably deadly period of the West hanging themselves (which will probably take decades).
Checkmate!
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